Baseline predictors of antiretroviral treatment failure and lost to follow up in a multicenter countrywide HIV-1 cohort study in Ethiopia

Predictors of Clinical Outcomes among People with HIV and Tuberculosis Symptoms after Rapid Treatment Initiation in Haiti

Introduction

Few studies have evaluated baseline predictors of clinical outcomes among people with HIV starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the modern era of rapid ART initiation.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial of two rapid treatment initiation strategies for people with treatment-naïve HIV and tuberculosis symptoms at an urban clinic in Haiti. We used logistic regression models to assess associations between baseline characteristics and (1) retention in care at 48 weeks, (2) HIV viral load suppression at 48 weeks (among participants who underwent viral load testing), and (3) all-cause mortality.

Results

500 participants were enrolled in the study 11/2017-1/2020. Eighty-eight (18%) participants were diagnosed with tuberculosis, and ART was started in 494 (99%). After adjustment, less than secondary education (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.21, 95% CI 0.10-0.46), dolutegravir initiation (AOR 2.57, 95% CI 1.22-5.43), age (AOR 1.42 per 10-year increase, 95% CI 1.01-1.99), and tuberculosis diagnosis (AOR 3.92, 95% CI 1.36-11.28) were significantly associated with retention. Age (AOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.05-1.75), dolutegravir initiation (AOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.07-2.85), and tuberculosis diagnosis (AOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.28-0.89) were associated with viral suppression. Higher CD4 cell count at enrollment (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.69, 95% CI 0.55-0.87) and anemia (OR 4.86, 95% CI 1.71-13.81) were associated with mortality.

Conclusions

We identified sociodemographic, treatment-related, clinical, and laboratory-based predictors of clinical outcomes. These characteristics may serve as markers of sub-populations that could benefit from additional interventions to support treatment success after rapid treatment initiation.

Viral load suppression and its predictor among HIV seropositive people who receive enhanced adherence counseling at public health institutions in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia. Retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

For those HIV seropositive people with high viral loads, the World Health Organization recommends more counseling before changing ART regimens. A high viral load can lead to increased HIV transmission and lower survival rates. Clients with viral loads above 1000 copies/mL should receive enhanced adherence counseling for 3-6 months before switching. Despite enhanced adherence counseling programs, most countries struggle with viral load suppression. Little is known about viral load suppression in Ethiopia and the research area after counseling.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess viral load suppression and its predictors among HIV-positive individuals receiving enhanced adherence counseling in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, in 2022.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among randomly selected 546 clients on Enhanced Adherence Counseling at public health facilities in Bahir Dar city. The Epicollect5 mobile application was used to collect the data, which was then exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. A Log-Binomial regression model was fitted for each explanatory variable. Variables having a p-value <0.25 in bivariate analysis were entered into a multivariable Log-Binomial regression model. Finally, an adjusted risk ratio with a 95% confidence interval and a p-value <0.05 was used to measure the strength of the prediction.

RESULTS

Following enhanced adherence counseling, 312 (57.1%) people had their viral load suppressed. Absence of recurrent OI (ARR 1.40; CI 1.03-1.91), EAC stay less than 3 months (ARR 1.54; CI 1.19-1.99), EAC stay 3-6 months (ARR 1.38; CI 1.12-1.69), once-daily ARV dose regimen (ARR 1.28; CI 1.03-1.58), baseline viral load of 2879.00 copies/ml (ARR 1.30, CI 1.06-1.60), being orthodox Tewahido Christian (ARR 0.37; CI 0.18-0.75) were significant predictors of viral load suppression after Enhanced Adherence Counseling.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Most importantly, this study found that most people had suppressed viral loads after receiving enhanced adherence counseling. Significant predictors of viral load suppression included recurrent OI, length of stay on EAC, daily ARV dosing regimen, baseline viral load, and religion. Clients with a high baseline viral load and those who experience recurring opportunistic infections should get extra care during EAC sessions.

Predictors of loss to follow up among adults on antiretroviral therapy before and after the start of treat-all strategy in public health facilities of Hawassa city, Ethiopia: A Competing risk regression

BACKGROUND

Treat-all strategies improved patient outcomes, despite higher rates of loss to follow-up compared to the pre-treat era. Patients in Ethiopia experienced a higher rate of LTFU during the treat-all strategy period; however, studies did not identify contributing factors in comparison with previous strategies. This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up before and after the start of the treat-all strategy among adults on anti-retroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 1190 randomly selected adults on antiretroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City. Using the Open Data Kit (ODK), data were collected from medical records and exported to Stata version 16 and R 4.2.1 for analysis. A Grays test and cumulative incidence curve were used to compare the cumulative incidence function of loss to follow-up. Bivariable and multivariable competing risk regression were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU and variables with a p-value <0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of lost-to-follow-up was 4.92(3.84,6.3) and 8.67(7.26,10.3) per 100 person-years (PY) in pre-treat all and treat all cohorts, respectively. The cumulative incidence of mortality was 5.86(4.67,7.35) and 3(2.26,4.12) per 100 PY in pre-treat and treat all cohorts, respectively. Fair/poor adherence (aSHR:5.17; (95% CI 1.97, 13.51), underweight (aSHR:2.13; 95% CI: 1.15-3.93) and WHO stage III/IV (aSHR:2.69; 95% CI: 1.27, 5.71) were predictors of loss up in pre-treat all, whereas fair/poor adherence (aSHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.68), underweight (aSHR:1.71; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.56), and CD4 cell >350 cell/m3 (aSHR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.65) predicts of loss up in treat all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that the incidence of loss to follow-up was considerably higher in the treat-all period as compared to the pre-treat-all era. Poor medication compliance, underweight, and a CD4 level >350 cells/m3 contributed to the higher rate of LTFU in the treat-all strategy. Targeted interventions, such as nutritional support and strengthening medication adherence counseling, should be implemented to maintain treatment retention and reduce antiretroviral therapy dropout rates.

Antiretroviral treatment failure and associated factors among people living with HIV on therapy in Homa Bay, Kenya: A retrospective study

Despite large numbers of patients accessing antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Kenya, few studies have explored factors associated with virologic failure in Western Kenya, specifically. We undertook a study in Homa Bay County, Kenya to assess the extent of virologic treatment failure and factors associated with it. This was an observational retrospective study conducted from September 2020 to January 2021. Data were abstracted from the records of patients who had been on ART for at least six months at the time of data collection after systematic sampling stratified by age group at ART initiation (0-14 and 15+ years), using probability proportion to the numbers of patients attending the facility. Confirmed viral treatment failure was defined as viral load ≥1000 copies/ml based on two consecutive viral load measurements after at least three months of enhanced adherence counseling. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Cox regression modeling. Of the 2,007 patients sampled, 160 (8.0%) had confirmed virologic treatment failure. Significantly higher virologic treatment failure rates were identified among male patients 78/830 (9.4%) and children 115/782 (14.7%). Factors associated with virologic treatment failure (VTF), were age 0-14 years, adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 4.42, (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 3.12, 6.32), experience of treatment side effects AHD: 2.43, (95% CI, 1.76, 3.37), attending level 2/3 health facility, AHR: 1.87, (95% CI: 1.29, 2,72), and history of opportunistic infections (OIs), AHR: 1.81, (95% CI, 1.76, 3.37). Children, attendees of level 2/3 health facilities, patients with a history of OIs, and those experiencing treatment side-effects are at risk of VTF. Increased focus on children and adolescents on screening for drug resistance, administration of and adherence to medication, and on effective information and education on side-effects is critical. Additionally, there is need for increased training and support for health care workers at primary level care facilities.

Treatment outcomes 12 months after antiretroviral therapy initiation in Oman: a nationwide study from the Middle East

ABSTRACTWe used routinely collected programme data on people living with HIV in Oman who started ART in 2014-2018 to assess retention on ART, viral suppression, attrition (mortality or loss to follow-up [LTFU]) and treatment failure (attrition or HIV viral load of > 1000 copies/mL) 12 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. We identified 726 patients; 72% were male. Overall, 12 months retention on ART and viral suppression (intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis) were 85.7% and 74.5%, respectively. Attrition occurred in 14.3% (mortality of 7% and LTFU of 7.3%). Retention increased from 78.8% (93/118) to 90.6% (144/159) among patients who started ART in 2014 and 2018, respectively. Similarly, ITT and on-treatment analyses revealed that viral suppression 12 months after ART initiation increased from 57.6% (68/118) and 73.1% (68/93) among patients who initiated therapy in 2014-80.5% (128/159) and 88.8% (128/144) among patients started treatment in 2018, respectively. On multivariate analysis, older age, having "Other" as an HIV risk factor (compared to heterosexual) and receiving HIV care outside the capital Muscat independently predicted both attrition and treatment failure. Our findings have been useful in identifying factors at the individual and programme level that influenced the risk of attrition and treatment failure.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for lost to follow-up among adults on active antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Over 420,000 people have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia; however, lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) rates continues to be high. A clinical decision tool is needed to identify patients at higher risk for LTFU to provide individualized risk prediction to intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a statistical risk prediction tool that predicts the probability of LTFU among adult clients on ART.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 432 clients on ART in Gondar Town, northwest, Ethiopia. Prognostic determinates included in the analysis were determined by multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the model discriminative ability and predictive accuracy, respectively. Individual risk prediction for LTFU was determined using both regression formula and score chart rule. Youden index value was used to determine the cut-point for risk classification. The clinical utility of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The incidence of LTFU was 11.19 (95% CI 8.95–13.99) per 100-persons years of observation. Potential prognostic determinants for LTFU were rural residence, not using prophylaxis (either cotrimoxazole or Isoniazid or both), patient on appointment spacing model (ASM), poor drug adherence level, normal Body mass index (BMI), and high viral load (viral copies > 1000 copies/ml). The AUROC was 85.9% (95% CI 82.0–89.6) for the prediction model and the risk score was 81.0% (95% CI 76.7–85.3) which was a good discrimination probability. The maximum sensitivity and specificity of the probability of LTFU using the prediction model were 72.07% and 83.49%, respectively. The calibration plot of the model was good (p-value = 0.350). The DCA indicated that the model provides a higher net benefit following patients based on the risk prediction tool.

Conclusion

The incidence of LTFU among clients on ART in Gondar town was high (> 3%). The risk prediction model presents an accurate and easily applicable prognostic prediction tool for clients on ART. A prospective follow-up study and external validation of the model is warranted before using the model.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07691-x.

Predictors of loss to follow up from antiretroviral therapy among adolescents with HIV/AIDS in Tanzania

Access to Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is threatened by the increased rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among adolescents on ART care. We investigated the rate of LTFU from HIV care and associated predictors among adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in Tanzania. A retrospective cohort analysis of adolescents on ART from January 2014 to December 2016 was performed. Kaplan-Meier method was used to determine failure probabilities and the Cox proportion hazard regression model was used to determine predictors of loss to follow up. A total of 25,484 adolescents were on ART between 2014 and 2016, of whom 78.4% were female and 42% of adolescents were lost to follow-up. Predictors associated with LTFU included; adolescents aged 15–19 years (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.57; 95% Confidence Interval (CI); 1.47–1.69), having HIV/TB co-infection (aHR: 1.58; 95% CI, 1.32–1.89), attending care at dispensaries (aHR: 1.12; 95% CI, 1.07–1.18) or health center (aHR: 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04–1.15), and being malnourished (aHR: 2.27; 95% CI,1.56–3.23). Moreover, residing in the Lake Zone and having advanced HIV disease were associated with LTFU. These findings highlight the high rate of LTFU and the need for intervention targeting older adolescents with advanced diseases and strengthening primary public facilities to achieve the 2030 goal of ending HIV as a public health threat.

Evaluation of CCR5-Δ32 mutation and HIV-1 surveillance drug-resistance mutations in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of long-term non progressors of HIV-1-infected individuals

Aim: This study aimed to evaluate chemokine receptor 5 delta 32 (CCR5-Δ32) mutation and HIV-1 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of long-term non progressors (LTNPs) of HIV-1-infected individuals. Materials and methods: This research was performed on 197 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected patients. After follow-up, it was determined that 15 (7.6%) of these people were LTNPs. The PCR assay was performed to identify the CCR5 genotype and HIV-1 SDRMs. Results: One (6.7%) of the LTNPs was heterozygous (wt/Δ32) for the CCR5 delta 32 (CCR5Δ32). However, none of the individuals was homozygous for this mutation (Δ32/Δ32). Moreover, none of the LTNPs showed HIV-1 SDRMs. The CRF35-AD subtype was the most dominant subtype, with a percentage of 93.3%. Conclusion: Iranian elite controllers are negative for CCR5-delta 32 homozygous genotype and drug resistance against antiretroviral drugs.

Predictors of attrition among adults in a rural HIV clinic in southern Mozambique: 18-year retrospective study

HIV remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality for people living in many low-income countries. With an HIV prevalence of 12.4% among people aged over 15 years, Mozambique was ranked in 2019 as one of eight countries with the highest HIV rates in the world. We analyzed routinely collected data from electronical medical records in HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older and enrolled at Carmelo Hospital of Chokwe in Chokwe from 2002 to 2019. Attrition was defined as individuals who were either reported dead or lost to follow-up (LTFU) (≥ 90 days since the last clinic visit with missed medical pick-up after 3 days of failed calls). Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox regression analyses were used to model the incidence and predictors of time to attrition. From January 2002 to December 2019, 16,321 patients were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART): 59.2% were women, and 37.9% were aged 25–34 years old. At the time of the analysis, 7279 (44.6%) were active and on ART. Overall, the 16,321 adults on ART contributed a total of 72,987 person-years of observation. The overall attrition rate was 9.46 per 100 person-years. Cox regression showed a higher risk of attrition in those following an inpatient regimen (hazard ratio [HR] 3.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.89–3.50; p < 0.001), having CD4 counts under 50 cells/µL (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.63–2.24, p < 0.001), receiving anti-TB treatment within 90 days of ART initiation (HR 6.53, 95% CI 5.72–7.45; p < 0.001), classified as WHO clinical stage III (HR 3.75, 95% CI 3.21–4.37; p < 0.001), and having Kaposi’s sarcoma (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.65–2.39, p < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells/µL on ART initiation had a 40% lower chance of survival at 18 years. Low CD4 cell counts, ART initiation as an inpatient, WHO clinical stage III, and anti-tuberculosis treatment within 90 days of ART initiation were strongly associated with attrition. Strengthening HIV testing and ART treatment, improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis before ART initiation, and guaranteed psychosocial support systems are the best tools to reduce patient attrition after starting ART.

How does HIV testing modality impact the cascade of care among persons diagnosed with HIV in Ethiopia?

Background

Despite scaling up of HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa, many people living with HIV (PLHIV) are unaware of their HIV status. New testing modalities, such as community-based testing, can improve test uptake, but it is uncertain whether type of testing modality affects the subsequent cascade of HIV care.

Objective

To compare linkage to care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes with regard to type of HIV testing modality.

Methods

A retrospective registry-based study was conducted at public ART clinics in an urban uptake area in Central Ethiopia. Persons aged ≥15 years newly diagnosed with HIV in 2015–2018 were eligible for inclusion. Data on patient characteristics and testing modality were analysed for associations with the following outcomes: ART initiation, retention in care at 12 months after starting ART, and viral suppression (<1000 copies/ml, recorded during the first 12 months after ART initiation), using uni- and multivariable analysis. Separate analyses disaggregated by sex were performed.

Results

Among 2885 included PLHIV (median age 32 years, 59% female), 2476 (86%) started ART, 1422/2043 (70%) were retained in care, and 953/1046 (92%) achieved viral suppression. Rates of ART initiation were lower among persons diagnosed through community-based testing (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29–0.66) and among persons diagnosed through provider-initiated testing (AOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.44–0.97) compared with facility-based voluntary counselling and testing. In sex-disaggregated analyses, community-based testing was associated with lower rates of ART initiation among both women and men (AOR 0.47, 95% CI 0.27–0.82; AOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19–0.78, respectively). No differences were found for retention in care or viral suppression with regard to test modality.

Conclusion

Type of HIV testing modality was associated with likelihood of ART initiation, but not with subsequent treatment outcomes among persons starting ART.

The impact of gender and the social determinants of health on the clinical course of people living with HIV in Myanmar: an observational study

Background

There is a growing recognition of the impact of gender and the social determinants of health on the clinical course of people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the relative contribution of these factors to clinical outcomes of PLHIV is incompletely defined in many countries. This study was performed to gain a greater understanding of the non-clinical determinants of prognosis of PLHIV in Myanmar.

Methods

Selected demographic, behavioural and socioeconomic characteristics of outpatients at two specialist HIV hospitals and one general hospital in Yangon, Myanmar were correlated with their subsequent clinical course; a poor outcome was defined as death, hospitalisation, loss to follow-up or a detectable viral load at 6 months of follow-up.

Results

221 consecutive individuals with advanced HIV commencing anti-retroviral therapy (ART) were enrolled in the study; their median CD4 T-cell count was 92 (44–158) cells/mm³, 138 (62.4%) were male. Socioeconomic disadvantage was common: the median (interquartile range (IQR) monthly per-capita income in the cohort was US$48 (31–77); 153 (69.9%) had not completed high school. However, in a multivariate analysis that considered demographic, behavioural, clinical factors and social determinants of health, male gender was the only predictor of a poor outcome: odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 2.33 (1.26–4.32, p = 0.007). All eight of the deaths and hospitalisations in the cohort occurred in males (p = 0.03).

Conclusions

Men starting ART in Myanmar have a poorer prognosis than women. Expanded implementation of gender-specific management strategies is likely to be necessary to improve outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-021-00364-w.

Predictors of virological failure among people living with HIV receiving first line antiretroviral treatment in Myanmar: retrospective cohort analysis

Background

Progress toward the global target for 95% virological suppression among those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is still suboptimal. We describe the viral load (VL) cascade, the incidence of virological failure and associated risk factors among people living with HIV receiving first-line ART in an HIV cohort in Myanmar treated by the Médecins Sans Frontières in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Sports Myanmar.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including adult patients with at least one HIV viral load test result and having received of at least 6 months’ standard first-line ART. The incidence rate of virological failure (HIV viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL) was calculated. Multivariable Cox’s regression was performed to identify risk factors for virological failure.

Results

We included 25,260 patients with a median age of 33.1 years (interquartile range, IQR 28.0–39.1) and a median observation time of 5.4 years (IQR 3.7–7.9). Virological failure was documented in 3,579 (14.2%) participants, resulting in an overall incidence rate for failure of 2.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Among those who had a follow-up viral load result, 1,258 (57.1%) had confirmed virological failure, of which 836 (66.5%) were switched to second-line treatment. An increased hazard for failure was associated with age ≤ 19 years (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR 1.51; 95% confidence intervals, CI 1.20–1.89; p < 0.001), baseline tuberculosis (aHR 1.39; 95% CI 1.14–1.49; p < 0.001), a history of low-level viremia (aHR 1.60; 95% CI 1.42–1.81; p < 0.001), or a history of loss-to-follow-up (aHR 1.24; 95% CI 1.41–1.52; p = 0.041) and being on the same regimen (aHR 1.37; 95% CI 1.07–1.76; p < 0.001). Cumulative appointment delay was not significantly associated with failure after controlling for covariates.

Conclusions

VL monitoring is an important tool to improve programme outcomes, however limited coverage of VL testing and acting on test results hampers its full potential. In our cohort children and adolescents, PLHIV with history of loss-to-follow-up or those with low-viremia are at the highest risk of virological failure and might require more frequent virological monitoring than is currently recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-021-00336-0.

A high prevalence of potential HIV elite controllers identified over 30 years in Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

In-depth analysis of the HIV pandemic at its epicenter in the Congo basin has been hampered by 40 years of political unrest and lack of functional public health infrastructure. In recent surveillance studies (2017-18), we found that the prevalence of HIV in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (11%) far exceeded previous estimates.

Methods

10,457 participants were screened in Kinshasa with rapid tests from 2017-2019. Individuals confirmed as reactive by the Abbott ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo assay (n=1968) were measured by the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 viral load assay. Follow up characterization of samples was performed with alternate manufacturer viral load assays, qPCR for additional blood borne viruses, unbiased next generation sequencing, and HIV Western blotting.

Findings

Our data suggested the existence of a significant cohort (n=429) of HIV antibody positive/viral load negative individuals. We systematically eliminated collection site bias, sample integrity, and viral genetic diversity as alternative explanations for undetectable viral loads. Mass spectroscopy unexpectedly detected the presence of 3TC antiviral medication in approximately 60% of those tested (209/354), and negative Western blot results indicated false positive serology in 12% (49/404). From the remaining Western blot positives (n=53) and indeterminates (n=31) with reactive Combo and rapid test results, we estimate 2.7-4.3% of infections in DRC to be potential elite controllers. We also analyzed samples from the DRC collected in 1987 and 2001-03, when antiretroviral drugs were not available, and found similarly elevated trends.

Interpretation

Viral suppression to undetectable viral loads without therapy occurs infrequently in HIV-1 infected patients around the world. Mining of global data suggests a unique ability to control HIV infection arose early in central Africa and occurs in <1% of founder populations. Identification of this group of elite controllers presents a unique opportunity to study potentially novel genetic mechanisms of viral suppression.

Funding

Abbott Laboratories funded surveillance in DRC and subsequent research efforts. Additional funding was received from a MIZZOU Award from the University of Missouri. Research was supported in part by the Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH.

Predictors of Virologic Failure Among a Cohort of HIV-infected Children in Southern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Optimal care for children with HIV infection includes timely assessment of treatment failure. Using HIV viral load to define treatment failure remains a challenge in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

Children with HIV infection who were already on or starting first-line antiretroviral therapy were enrolled and followed over time. We examined clinical and immunologic predictors of virologic failure (VF), defined as consecutive viral load measurements > 1000 copies/mL (VF). Children were followed every 6 months with clinical assessments, immunologic assays and viral load testing until treatment failure or up to 18 months.

RESULTS

Of the 484 children with complete data, we observed a prevalence of 15% who had VF at enrollment, and 18 who developed VF over 10.5 person-years of follow-up for an incidence of 4.97 [95% CI: 3.04-7.70) per 100 person-years. Lower adherence, lower CD4 T-cell count, lower white blood cells count, lower platelets and a lower glomerular filtration rate were all associated with increased VF. However, in a multivariable analysis, renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 90 mL/min), odds ratio: 11.5 (95% CI: 1.5-63.7), and lower adherence, odds ratio: 3.9 (95% CI: 1.1-13.4), were the only factors associated with development of VF.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a significant risk of VF in children with HIV infection in a prospective cohort study in southern Ethiopia and limited predictive value of clinical variables for VF. This provides further evidence that rapid and reliable viral load testing is needed to adequately address the HIV epidemic, along with implementation of adherence interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Change in Viral Load Count and Its Predictors Among Unsuppressed Viral Load Patients Receiving an Enhanced Adherence Counseling Intervention at Three Hospitals in Northern Ethiopia: An Exploratory Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Background

Enhanced adherence counseling (EAC) is an interventional program that provides targeted adherence counseling for unsuppressed viral load people living with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy before diagnosing treatment failure. However, there is a lack of evidence on change in viral load count among patients receiving EAC intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to assess change in viral load count and its predictors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in northeast Ethiopia.

Methods

A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 235 randomly selected patients with unsuppressed viral load who started EAC sessions between 2016 and 2019 at three governmental hospitals in the northern part of Ethiopia. Viral load count and patient individual factors were assessed at EAC program enrollment and viral load counts repeated at the end of EAC session. The main outcome variable was a change in viral load count during the EAC session period. A paired sample t-test was used to determine the mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the effect of selected factors on viral load count change.

Results

Based on the paired sample t-test, there was a significant mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention (mean difference=16,904, (95% CI: 9986–23,821; p-value<0.001). The multivariable linear mixed-effects regression analysis showed that young age (β= 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14), urban residence (β= −0.55; 95% CI: −0.63, −0.34), CD4 count of 201–500 cells/mm³ (β= −0.67; 95% CI: −0.87, −0.43) and long duration on ART (β= −0.01; 95% CI: −0.01, −0.02) were associated with the decline in viral load count.

Conclusion

We detected a substantial decline in viral load count among patients receiving an EAC intervention. Young age, urban residence, CD4 count of 201–500 cells/mm³ and long duration on ART were the positive predictors of viral load suppression.

Socio-economic condition and lack of virological suppression among adults and adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia

Introduction

The potential impact of socio-economic condition on virological suppression during antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa is largely unknown. In this case-control study, we compared socio-economic factors among Ethiopian ART recipients with lack of virological suppression to those with undetectable viral load (VL).

Methods

Cases (VL>1000 copies/ml) and controls (VL<150 copies/ml) aged ≥15years, with ART for >6 months and with available VL results within the last 3 months, were identified from registries at public ART clinics in Central Ethiopia. Questionnaire-based interviews on socio-economic characteristics, health condition and transmission risk behavior were conducted. Univariate variables associated with VL>1000 copies/ml (p<0.25) were added to a multivariable logistic regression model.

Results

Among 307 participants (155 cases, 152 controls), 61.2% were female, and the median age was 38 years (IQR 32–46). Median HIV-RNA load among cases was 6,904 copies/ml (IQR 2,843–26,789). Compared to controls, cases were younger (median 36 vs. 39 years; p = 0.004), more likely to be male (46.5% vs. 30.9%; p = 0.005) and had lower pre-ART CD4 cell counts (170 vs. 220 cells/μl; p = 0.009). In multivariable analysis of urban residents (94.8%), VL>1000 copies/ml was associated with lower relative wealth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.98; 95% CI 1.49–5.94; p = 0.016), geographic work mobility (aOR 6.27, 95% CI 1.82–21.6; p = 0.016), younger age (aOR 0.94 [year], 95% CI 0.91–0.98; p = 0.011), longer duration of ART (aOR 1.19 [year], 95% CI 1.07–1.33; p = 0.020), and suboptimal (aOR 3.83, 95% CI 1.33–10.2; p = 0.048) or poor self-perceived wellbeing (aOR 9.75, 95% CI 2.85–33.4; p = 0.012), after correction for multiple comparisons. High-risk sexual behavior and substance use was not associated with lack of virological suppression.

Conclusion

Geographic work mobility and lower relative wealth were associated with lack of virological suppression among Ethiopian ART recipients in this predominantly urban population. These characteristics indicate increased risk of treatment failure and the need for targeted interventions for persons with these risk factors.

Nevirapine and tuberculosis predict first-line treatment failure in HIV patients in Indonesia: Case-control study

Introduction

Indonesia antiretroviral therapy guideline suggests the use of Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regiments as first line of HIV treatment and Protease Inhibitor to replace NNRTI when treatment failure occurred. This case-control study was aimed to study factors predicting first-line ART treatment failure among HIV positive patients aged >15 years, non-pregnant, and registered in our institution, Indonesia.

Methods

Diagnosis of HIV treatment failure was made according to the standard WHO criteria. Demographic and outcome variables were recorded. The association between variables were analyzed by Chi-square test with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), followed by multivariate analysis using logistic regression test.

Results

Twenty-six index cases and 26 age- and sex-matched control cases were included in the study with a mean age of 32.27 ± 8.7 years and 32.88 ± 8.15 years, respectively. Median time for switching to second-line (Lopinavir/ritonavir, LPV/r) was 46.32 ± 30.21 months. Patients presented with tuberculosis and treated by nevirapine as the first-line treatment were 26.6-folds (95% CI: 2.41-293.81, p = 0.007) and 6.7-folds (95% CI: 1.56-28.45, p = 0.011) higher risk for treatment failure, respectively.

Conclusions

The presence of tuberculosis and the use of nevirapine in first-line treatment were strong predictors for first-line ARV treatment failure, suggesting for closer clinical monitoring for patients with those conditions. A further and larger prospective cohort study is needed to confirm the findings in this study.

Prevalence and Predictors of Virological Failure Among Adults Living with HIV in South Wollo Zone, Northeast Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Highly active antiretroviral therapy has dramatically altered progression of HIV infection and significantly improved patients’ quality of life. However, drug resistance with consequent treatment failure raises the need for much more expensive and toxic second-line regimens. Thus, this study aimed at investigating the predictors of virologic failure among adults in Northeast Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was carried out among adults who started first-line antiretroviral treatment from September 2005 to January 2018. Data were collected from patients’ medical records, entered and validated using EpiData version 3.1 and then exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Binary logistic regression was carried out; odds ratio with 95% CI was used to identify covariates associated with virologic failure. Statistical significance was considered at p-value <0.05.

Results

A total of 384 patients with mean age of 35.73±9.44 years were consecutively enrolled; of which, 213 (55.5%) were females, 255 (66.4%) had WHO clinical stage III/IV, and 130 (33.9%) had baseline CD4 count <100 cells/mm³. Mean baseline CD4 count was 179 cells/mm³ (range: 2–853 cells), and 158 (41.1%) participants were on AZT/3TC/NVP. Virological failure was diagnosed among 61 (15.9%) patients. The mean time to virologic failure after initiation of ART was 63.80 months (range: 17–150 months). After adjusting for other confounders, risk of experiencing virologic failure was significantly associated with being divorced (AOR 3.40, 95% CI 1.20–9.59), being naïve to ART (AOR 2.55, 95% CI 1.23–5.28), low (<100) baseline CD4 count (AOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.03–5.54) and nonadherence (AOR 6.73, 95% CI 3.29–13.76).

Conclusion

In this study, the prevalence of antiretroviral treatment failure was 15.9%. Being divorced, being naïve to antiretroviral therapy, low (<100 cells/mm³) baseline CD4 count and nonadherence were found to be significant predictors of virologic failure. ART programs should focus on early HIV diagnosis and ART initiation as well as enhanced adherence support.

Effect of AIDS-defining events at initiation of antiretroviral therapy on long-term mortality of HIV/AIDS patients in Southwestern China: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

To evaluate the impact of AIDS-defining events (ADE) on long-term mortality of HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), a retrospective HIV/AIDS treatment cohort study performed in Southwestern China.

Methods

The retrospective cohort was conducted among 6757 HIV/AIDS patients on ART (2NRTIs + 1NNRTI, 2NRTIs + 1PI and Single or two drugs) recruited in Guigang city, Guangxi, China, from January 2004 to December 2018. Participants were divided into ADE and non-ADE groups, and were followed-up every six months to observe treatment outcomes. Comparison of mortality between groups was performed using the log-rank test and Kaplan–Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to explore the risk factors of mortality. 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance confounding factors and adjust the mortality risk.

Results

Of 6757 participants with 29,096.06 person-years of follow-up, 16.86% (1139/6757) belonged to ADE group while the others (83.14%) belonged to the non-ADE group. The most common cause of death by ADE was disseminated mycosis (31.65%), followed by recurrent severe bacterial pneumonia (28.48%), herpes zoster (17.72%), and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (8.86%). The mortality of the ADE group was significantly higher than that of the non-ADE group [3.45/100 person-years (95% CI 2.92–3.97) vs. 2.34/100 person-years (95% CI 2.15–2.52), P<0.001]. The death risk of the ADE group was also higher than that of the non- ADE group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.291, 95% CI 1.061–1.571, P = 0.011], which was confirmed by PSM analysis (aHR = 1.581, 95% CI 1.192–2.099, P = 0.002). Cox analysis indicated that ADE, older age, male gender, previous non-use of cotrimoxazole, advanced WHO clinical stage, and low baseline CD4⁺ cell count were the risk factors for death.

Conclusions

Even on ART, the mortality risk of HIV positive individuals with ADE was higher than those without ADE. Active testing, earlier diagnosis, and timely therapy with ART may reduce the death risk of ADE.

HIV patients retention and attrition in care and their determinants in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is paucity of evidence on the magnitude of HIV patients' retention and attrition in Ethiopia. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the pooled magnitude of HIV patient clinical retention and attrition and to identify factors associated with retention and attrition in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis were done among studies conducted in Ethiopia using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Both published and unpublished studies conducted from January 1, 2005 to June 6th, 2019 were included. Major databases and search engines such as Google Scholar, PUBMED, African Journals Online (AJOL) and unpublished sources were searched to retrieve relevant articles. Data were assessed for quality, heterogeneity and publication bias. Analysis was conducted using STATA version 14 software.

RESULT

From a total of 45 studies 546,250 study participants were included in this review. The pooled magnitude of retention in care among HIV patients was 70.65% (95% CI, 68.19, 73.11). The overall magnitude of loss to follow up 15.17% (95% CI, 11.86, 18.47), transfer out 11.17% (95% CI, 7.12, 15.21) and death rate were 6.75% (95% CI, 6.22, 7.27). Major determinants of attrition were being unmarried patient (OR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.15-2.01), non-disclosed HIV status (OR 6.36, 95% CI: 3.58-11.29), poor drug adherence (OR 6.60, 95% CI: 1.41-30.97), poor functional status (OR 2.11, 95% CI: 1.33-3.34), being underweight (OR 2.21, 95% CI: 1.45-3.39) and advanced clinical stage (OR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.36-2.51). Whereas absence of opportunistic infections (OR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.30-0.9), normal hemoglobin status (OR 0.29, 95% CI: 0.20-0.42) and non-substance use (OR 95% CI: 0.41, 0.17-0.98) were facilitators of HIV patient retention in clinical care.

CONCLUSION

The level of retention to the care among HIV patients was low in Ethiopia. Socio-economic, clinical, nutritional and behavioral, intervention is necessary to achieve adequate patient retention in clinical care.

Viral Load Suppression after Enhanced Adherence Counseling and Its Predictors among High Viral Load HIV Seropositive People in North Wollo Zone Public Hospitals, Northeast Ethiopia, 2019: Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization currently encourages enhanced adherence counseling for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive people with a high viral load count before a treatment switch to the second-line regimen, yet little is known about viral load suppression after the outcome of enhanced adherence counseling. Therefore, this study aimed to assess viral suppression after enhanced adherence counseling sessions and its predictors among high viral load HIV seropositive people.

METHODS

Institutional-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 235 randomly selected HIV seropositive people who were on ART and had a high viral load (>1000 copies/ml) from June 2016 to January 2019. The proportion of viral load suppression after enhanced adherence counseling was determined. Time to completion of counseling sessions and time to second viral load tests were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curve. Log binomial regression was used to identify predictors of viral re-suppression after enhanced adherence counseling sessions.

RESULT

The overall viral load suppression after enhanced adherence counseling was 66.4% (60.0-72.4). The median time to start adherence counseling session after high viral load detected date was 8 weeks (IQR 4-8 weeks), and the median time to complete the counseling session was 13 weeks (IQR 8-25 weeks). The probability of viral load suppression was higher among females (ARR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.02-1.19) and higher educational status (ARR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.25-2.16). The probability of viral load suppression was lower among people who had 36-59 months duration on ART (ARR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.130-0.9491) and people who had > 10,000 baseline viral load count (ARR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.28-0.71).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that viral suppression after enhanced adherence counseling was near to the WHO target (70%) but highlights gaps in time to enrolment into counseling session, timely completion of counseling session, and repeat viral load testing after completing the session.

Factors associated with first-line antiretroviral treatment failure in adult HIV-positive patients: a case-control study from Ethiopia

Background

Treatment failure has become a significant challenge in patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of the present study was to identify risk factors for first-line ART failure among patients attending clinical follow-up.

Methods

A 1:2 matched case-control study (by age, sex, and treatment duration since initiated on ART) was conducted from June 2015 to July 2017 on adult patients (aged ≥15 years) who were on ART for at least 6 months. Cases were selected from patients who were switched to second-line ART after first-line ART failure (viral load ≥1000 copies/mL). Controls were randomly selected from patients on first-line ART with viral load < 50 copies/mL. Data were collected using an interview questionnaire, reviewing chart and electronic health records and laboratory tests. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for treatment failure.

Results

Of the 273 patients who participated in this study, 55% were males. Ninety-one cases were compared with 182 controls. The median age of participants was 40 years and the median duration of treatment since initiated on ART was 69 months. Independent risk factors associated with first-line antiretroviral treatment failure were discontinuation of ART (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 9.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0–23.8), baseline CD4 lymphocyte count ≤50 cells/mm³ (AOR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.5–9.6) and persistent diarrhea (AOR = 4.4, 95% CI: 1.5–13.2). The risk of ART failure was high and comparable whether the duration of ART discontinuation was greater or less than 1 month (crude odds ratio (COR) = 6.3 and 8. 5 respectively, p-value < 0.001). Frequent eating of a diet containing wheat or barley (AOR = 2.3, 95% CI: 0.9–5.4) showed a trend to be a risk factor for first-line ART failure (p-value = 0.064).

Conclusions

Our findings underscore the importance of avoiding ART discontinuation of any duration, early initiation of ART and diarrhea management to prevent first-line ART failure.

Incidence and predictors of LTFU among adults with TB/HIV co-infection in two governmental hospitals, Mekelle, Ethiopia, 2009-2016: survival model approach

Background

Lost to follow-up (LTFU) negatively affects the treatment success of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) and thus, increases Tuberculosis-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (TB/HIV) related morbidity, mortality and hospitalization. However, the incidence and predictors of loss to follow up (LTFU) among adults with TB/HIV co-infection have not yet well-investigated in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed at investigating the incidence and predictors of LTFU in the study setting in particular.

Methods

A facility based retrospective cohort study was employed among 305 (114 anemic and 191 normal) TB/HIV co-infected adults in two governmental hospitals (Mekelle Hospital and Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital), Mekelle, Ethiopia from 2009 to 2016 and data were collected using checklist. Besides to descriptive statistics, a cox regression analysis was applied to identify statistically significant predictors of LTFU at 5% level of significance. Eventually, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were estimated and interpreted for predictors of LTFU in the final cox model.

Results

Generally, 45 of 305 (14.8%) of TB/HIV co-infected adults were LTFU with an incidence rate of 4.5 new LTFUs per 100 Person Years (PYs) and a median follow up time of 3.1 years (Interquartile Range (IQR): 0.8–5.3 Years). Hemoglobin level ≤ 11.0 g/dl (AHR = 2.660; 95%CI: 1.459–4.848), and any history of OI/s (AHR = 3.795; 95%CI: 1.165–12.364) were risk factors of LTFU. While, adverse drug events (AHR = 0.451; 95%CI: 0.216–0.941), TB treatment completion (AHR = 0.121; 95% CI: 0.057–0.254), and being on Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) (AHR = 0.085; 95%CI: 0.012–0.628) had protective effect against LTFU.

Conclusions

One in approximately seven TB/HIV co-infected adults had experienced of LTFU with an incidence rate 4.5 LTFUs per 100 PYs. The LTFU rate was higher among adults with low baseline hemoglobin level, no adverse drug events, presence of OI/s, failure to complete TB treatment, and being not on IPT. Therefore, it is advisable to treat anemia and active TB, and preventing the occurrence of OIs including TB using IPT to reduce the incidence of LTFU among TB/HIV co-infected adults.