A study on the dynamics of temporary HIV treatment to assess the controversial outcomes of clinical trials: An in-silico approach

In silico thrombectomy trials for acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In silico trials aim to speed up the introduction of new devices in clinical practice by testing device design and performance in different patient scenarios and improving patient stratification for optimizing clinical trials. In this paper, we demonstrate an in silico trial framework for thrombectomy treatment of acute ischemic stroke and apply this framework to compare treatment outcomes in different subpopulations and with different thrombectomy stent-retriever devices. We employ a novel surrogate thrombectomy model to evaluate the thrombectomy success in the in silico trial.

METHODS

The surrogate thrombectomy model, built using data from a fine-grained finite-element model, is a device-specific binary classifier (logistic regression), to estimate the probability of successful recanalization, the outcome of interest. We incorporate this surrogate model within our previously developed in silico trial framework and demonstrate its use with three examples of in silico clinical trials. The first trial is a validation trial for the surrogate thrombectomy model. We then present two exploratory trials: one evaluating the performance of a commercially available device based on the fibrin composition in the occluding thrombus and one comparing the performance of two commercially available stent retrievers.

RESULTS

The Validation Trial showed the surrogate thrombectomy model was able to reproduce a similar recanalization rate as the real-life MR CLEAN trial (p=0.6). Results from the first exploratory trial showed that the chance of successful thrombectomy increases with higher blood cell concentrations in the thrombi, which is in line with observations from clinical data. The second exploratory trial showed improved recanalization success with a newer stent retriever device; however, these results require further investigation as the surrogate model for the newer stent retriever device has not yet been validated.

CONCLUSIONS

In this novel study, we have shown that in silico trials have the potential to help inform medical device developers on the performance of a new device and may also be used to select populations of interest for a clinical trial. This would reduce the time and costs involved in device development and traditional clinical trials.

Emulating complex simulations by machine learning methods

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present paper is to construct an emulator of a complex biological system simulator using a machine learning approach. More specifically, the simulator is a patient-specific model that integrates metabolic, nutritional, and lifestyle data to predict the metabolic and inflammatory processes underlying the development of type-2 diabetes in absence of familiarity. Given the very high incidence of type-2 diabetes, the implementation of this predictive model on mobile devices could provide a useful instrument to assess the risk of the disease for aware individuals. The high computational cost of the developed model, being a mixture of agent-based and ordinary differential equations and providing a dynamic multivariate output, makes the simulator executable only on powerful workstations but not on mobile devices. Hence the need to implement an emulator with a reduced computational cost that can be executed on mobile devices to provide real-time self-monitoring.

RESULTS

Similarly to our previous work, we propose an emulator based on a machine learning algorithm but here we consider a different approach which turn out to have better performances, indeed in terms of root mean square error we have an improvement of two order magnitude. We tested the proposed emulator on samples containing different number of simulated trajectories, and it turned out that the fitted trajectories are able to predict with high accuracy the entire dynamics of the simulator output variables. We apply the emulator to control the level of inflammation while leveraging on the nutritional input.

CONCLUSION

The proposed emulator can be implemented and executed on mobile health devices to perform quick-and-easy self-monitoring assessments.

Potential predictors of type-2 diabetes risk: machine learning, synthetic data and wearable health devices

BACKGROUND

The aim of a recent research project was the investigation of the mechanisms involved in the onset of type 2 diabetes in the absence of familiarity. This has led to the development of a computational model that recapitulates the aetiology of the disease and simulates the immunological and metabolic alterations linked to type-2 diabetes subjected to clinical, physiological, and behavioural features of prototypical human individuals.

RESULTS

We analysed the time course of 46,170 virtual subjects, experiencing different lifestyle conditions. We then set up a statistical model able to recapitulate the simulated outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The resulting machine learning model adequately predicts the synthetic dataset and can, therefore, be used as a computationally-cheaper version of the detailed mathematical model, ready to be implemented on mobile devices to allow self-assessment by informed and aware individuals. The computational model used to generate the dataset of this work is available as a web-service at the following address: http://kraken.iac.rm.cnr.it/T2DM .

Modeling the Effect of High Calorie Diet on the Interplay between Adipose Tissue, Inflammation, and Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a chronic metabolic disease potentially leading to serious widespread tissue damage. Human organism develops T2D when the glucose-insulin control is broken for reasons that are not fully understood but have been demonstrated to be linked to the emergence of a chronic inflammation. Indeed such low-level chronic inflammation affects the pancreatic production of insulin and triggers the development of insulin resistance, eventually leading to an impaired control of the blood glucose concentration. On the contrary, it is well-known that obesity and inflammation are strongly correlated.

AIM

In this study, we investigate in silico the effect of overfeeding on the adipose tissue and the consequent set up of an inflammatory state. We model the emergence of the inflammation as the result of adipose mass increase which, in turn, is a direct consequence of a prolonged excess of high calorie intake.

RESULTS

The model reproduces the fat accumulation due to excessive caloric intake observed in two clinical studies. Moreover, while showing consistent weight gains over long periods of time, it reveals a drift of the macrophage population toward the proinflammatory phenotype, thus confirming its association with fatness.

HIV-1-derived exosomal microRNAs miR88 and miR99 promote the release of cytokines from human alveolar macrophages by binding to TLR8

The human monocytic cell line U937 and human alveolar macrophages were used as in vitro models to explore the role of miR88 and miR99 in the chronic abnormal activation of the body caused by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The functions and underlying mechanisms of miR88 and miR99 were studied by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction, transwell, and chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) assays. HIV-1-infected cells released miR88 and miR99 into the extracellular space through exosomes, and miR88 and miR99 promoted the release of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), interleukin (IL)-6, and IL-12 by activating inflammatory factors, such as TLR8, on the surface of macrophages. HIV-derived microRNAs miR88 and miR99 performed these functions by binding to TLR8 and stimulating the release of pro-inflammatory factors from macrophages, such as TNFα, IL-6, and IL-12; these factors may be involved in chronic abnormal immune activation induced by HIV infection.