Trends in Hispanic and non-Hispanic white cesarean delivery rates on the US-Mexico border, 2000-2015

Applying Automated Machine Learning to Predict Mode of Delivery Using Ongoing Intrapartum Data in Laboring Patients

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the probability of a vaginal delivery (Partometer) using data iteratively obtained during labor from the electronic health record.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study of deliveries at an academic, tertiary care hospital was conducted from 2013 to 2019 who had at least two cervical examinations. The population was divided into those delivered by physicians with nulliparous term singleton vertex (NTSV) cesarean delivery rates <23.9% (Partometer cohort) and the remainder (control cohort). The cesarean rate among this population of lower risk patients is a standard metric by which to compare provider rates; <23.9% was the Healthy People 2020 goal. A supervised automated ML approach was applied to generate a model for each population. The primary outcome was accuracy of the model developed on the Partometer cohort at 4 hours from admission to labor and delivery. Secondary outcomes included discrimination ability (receiver operating characteristics-area under the curve [ROC-AUC]), precision-recall AUC, and calibration of the Partometer. To assess generalizability, we compared the performance and clinical predictors identified by the Partometer to the control model.

RESULTS

There were 37,932 deliveries during the study period; after exclusions, 9,385 deliveries were included in the Partometer cohort and 19,683 in the control cohort. Accuracy of predicting vaginal delivery at 4 hours was 87.1% for the Partometer (ROC-AUC: 0.82). Clinical predictors of greatest importance in the stacked Intrapartum Partometer Model included the Admission Model prediction and ongoing measures of dilatation and station which mirrored those found in the control population.

CONCLUSION

Using automated ML and intrapartum factors improved the accuracy of prediction of probability of a vaginal delivery over both previously published models based on logistic regression. Harnessing real-time data and ML could represent the bridge to generating a truly prescriptive tool to augment clinical decision-making, predict labor outcomes, and reduce maternal and neonatal morbidity.

KEY POINTS

· Our ML-based model yielded accurate predictions of mode of delivery early in labor.. · Predictors for models created on populations with high and low cesarean rates were the same.. · A ML-based model may provide meaningful guidance to clinicians managing labor..

Acculturation, Acculturative Stress, Experience of Discrimination, and Cesarean Birth in Mexican American Women

Introduction: There is evidence that Mexican Americans are more likely to have cesarean birth than non-Hispanic White Americans. The purpose of this study was to identify factors related to acculturation along with psychological and sociodemographic factors associated with birth mode in a prospective cohort of Mexican American women in Texas. Methods: This secondary analysis included 244 Mexican American pregnant women. Women with a prior cesarean birth were excluded. Variable selection was guided by Berry's Theoretical Framework of Acculturation. Correlations and logistic regression were used to examine relationships and predict risk of cesarean birth. Mediators and moderators were also considered. Results: Eighty women birthed by cesarean. Analytic and parent samples were similar in all demographics. After controlling for parity in logistic regression, greater Spanish language-related acculturative stress (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.01, 1.11], p = .028) and experience of discrimination (AOR, 1.18, 95% CI [1.00, 1.38], p = .044) increased the odds of cesarean birth. The relationship between acculturative stress and birth mode was moderated by birth facility. Conclusion: Acculturative stress and discrimination may play a role in birth mode for Mexican American women birthing in Texas. Birth facility and acculturative stress may be interacting in ways that have clinical significance but are yet unexplored.

Integrative Review of Disparities in Mode of Birth and Related Complications among Mexican American Women

INTRODUCTION

Cesarean rates are particularly high among Hispanic women in some regions of the United States, placing a disproportionate health burden on women and their newborns. This integrative review synthesized the literature on mode of birth (vaginal vs cesarean) and related childbirth complications (hemorrhage, surgical site infection, perineal trauma) among Mexican American women living in the United States.

METHODS

Four electronic databases, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and SCOPUS, were searched to identify studies meeting the inclusion criteria, research studies that included Mexican American women who were pregnant or postpartum. Results were limited to English language and publications that were peer-reviewed and published before May 2020. Covidence was used in article identification, screening, and assessment. Critical appraisal of the research was performed using the Quality Assessment Tool for Studies with Diverse Designs.

RESULTS

Ten articles met inclusion criteria. In some studies, Mexican American women born in the United States were more likely to have cesareans than women born in Mexico; in other studies, these findings were reversed. Mexican American women often had lower unadjusted cesarean rates compared with non-Hispanic white women, but adjusting for birth facility (some facilities perform more cesareans than others), sociodemographic, and risk factors often revealed Mexican American women have a higher adjusted risk for cesarean birth. Women with higher socioeconomic status had higher cesarean rates compared with women with lower socioeconomic status. In studies of birth outcome by level of acculturation, women who were US-oriented had higher rates of cesarean and more frequent perinatal complications. By ethnic subgroup, rates of cesarean and complications varied among Hispanic women.

DISCUSSION

Birth facility was associated with perinatal outcomes for Mexican American women; those who gave birth at higher-performing facilities had better outcomes when compared with women who gave birth at lower-performing facilities. After adjusting for pregnancy complications, Mexican American women had a greater risk for cesarean birth compared with non-Hispanic white women, a finding that may have clinical practice implications. Level of acculturation affected birth outcomes, but more research using precise instruments is needed.

Multi-level Drivers of Disparities in Hispanic Cesarean Delivery Rates in US-Mexico Border States

BACKGROUND

Hispanic women living along the US-Mexico border have higher cesarean delivery rates than non-Hispanic white women, African American women, and other Hispanic women in the USA. Their rates also exceed those of other Hispanic women in states that border Mexico and non-Hispanic white women along the border. Our objective was to determine the causes of the disparities in border Hispanic cesarean rates.

METHODS

Using the 2015 birth certificate file and other sources, we performed a twofold Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition analysis of the disparities in low-risk primary and repeat cesarean rates between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women in the US-Mexico border counties and Hispanic women residing in nonborder counties of border states.

RESULTS

Rates of low-risk primary cesarean among border Hispanic, nonborder Hispanic, and border non-Hispanic white women were 21.1%, 15.0%, and 16.5%, respectively. Higher Hispanic concentration in county of residence, a larger proportion of for-profit hospital beds, and greater poverty accounted for 24.7%, 22.1%, and 11.1% of the border-nonborder Hispanic difference, respectively. No other variable explained more than 5% of the difference. Higher Hispanic concentration, more for-profit beds, less attendance by an MD, higher BMI, and greater poverty explained 60.6%, 42.4%, 42.4%, 27.4%, and 21.3%, respectively, of the Hispanic-non-Hispanic white difference. Hispanic concentration and for-profit beds were also important explanatory variables for low-risk repeat cesareans.

CONCLUSION

Efforts to address potentially unnecessary cesareans among Hispanic women on the border should recognize that community demographic and health delivery system characteristics are more influential than maternal medical risk factors.