Choice modelling with Gaussian processes in the social sciences: A case study of neighbourhood choice in Stockholm

Collective decision-making by rational agents with differing preferences

Collective decisions can emerge from individual-level interactions between members of a group. These interactions are often seen as social feedback rules, whereby individuals copy the decisions they observe others making, creating a coherent group decision. The benefit of these behavioral rules to the individual agent can be understood as a transfer of information, whereby a focal individual learns about the world by gaining access to the information possessed by others. Previous studies have analyzed this exchange of information by assuming that all agents share common goals. While differences in information and differences in preferences have often been conflated, little is known about how differences between agents' underlying preferences affect the use and efficacy of social information. In this paper, I develop a model of social information use by rational agents with differing preferences, and demonstrate that the resulting collective behavior is strongly dependent on the structure of preference sharing within the group, as well as the quality of information in the environment. In particular, I show that strong social responses are expected by individuals that are habituated to noisy, uncertain environments where private information about the world is relatively weak. Furthermore, by investigating heterogeneous group structures, I demonstrate a potential influence of cryptic minority subgroups that may illuminate the empirical link between personality and leadership.

Inferring the dynamics of rising radical right-wing party support using Gaussian processes

The use of classical regression techniques in social science can prevent the discovery of complex, nonlinear mechanisms and often relies too heavily on both the expertise and prior expectations of the data analyst. In this paper, we present a regression methodology that combines the interpretability of traditional, well used, statistical methods with the full predictability and flexibility of Bayesian statistics techniques. Our modelling approach allows us to find and explain the mechanisms behind the rise of Radical Right-wing Populist parties (RRPs) that we would have been unable to find using traditional methods. Using Swedish municipality-level data (2002-2018), we find no evidence that the proportion of foreign-born residents is predictive of increases in RRP support. Instead, education levels and population density are the significant variables that impact the change in support for the RRP, in addition to spatial and temporal control variables. We argue that our methodology, which produces models with considerably better fit of the complexity and nonlinearities often found in social systems, provides a better tool for hypothesis testing and exploration of theories about RRPs and other social movements. This article is part of the theme issue 'Coupling functions: dynamical interaction mechanisms in the physical, biological and social sciences'.