Application of provincial data in mathematical modelling to inform sub-national tuberculosis program decision-making in South Africa

Optimizing diagnostic networks to increase patient access to TB diagnostic services: Development of the diagnostic network optimization (DNO) approach and learnings from its application in Kenya, India and the Philippines

Diagnostic network optimization (DNO) is an analytical approach that enables use of available country data to inform evidence-based decision-making to optimize access to diagnostic services. A DNO methodology was developed using available data sources and a commercial supply chain optimization software. In collaboration with Ministries of Health and partners, the approach was applied in Kenya, India and the Philippines to map TB diagnostic networks, identify misalignments, and determine optimal network design to increase patient access to TB diagnostic services and improve device utilization. The DNO analysis was successfully applied to evaluate and inform TB diagnostic services in Kenya, India and the Philippines as part of national strategic planning for TB. The analysis was tailored to each country's specific objectives and allowed evaluation of factors such as the number and placement of different TB diagnostics, design of sample referral networks and integration of early infant diagnosis for HIV at national and sub-national levels and across public and private sectors. Our work demonstrates the value of DNO as an innovative approach to analysing and modelling diagnostic networks, particularly suited for use in low-resource settings, as an open-access approach that can be applied to optimize networks for any disease.

Impact of interventions for tuberculosis prevention and care in South Africa - a systematic review of mathematical modelling studies

BACKGROUND

Substantial additional efforts are needed to prevent, find and successfully treat tuberculosis (TB) in South Africa (SA). In thepast decade, an increasing body of mathematical modelling research has investigated the population-level impact of TB prevention and careinterventions. To date, this evidence has not been assessed in the SA context.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review mathematical modelling studies that estimated the impact of interventions towards the World HealthOrganization's End TB Strategy targets for TB incidence, TB deaths and catastrophic costs due to TB in SA.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases for studies that used transmission-dynamic models of TB in SAand reported on at least one of the End TB Strategy targets at population level. We described study populations, type of interventions andtheir target groups, and estimates of impact and other key findings. For studies of country-level interventions, we estimated average annualpercentage declines (AAPDs) in TB incidence and mortality attributable to the intervention.

RESULTS

We identified 29 studies that met our inclusion criteria, of which 7 modelled TB preventive interventions (vaccination,antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV, TB preventive treatment (TPT)), 12 considered interventions along the care cascade for TB(screening/case finding, reducing initial loss to follow-up, diagnostic and treatment interventions), and 10 modelled combinationsof preventive and care-cascade interventions. Only one study focused on reducing catastrophic costs due to TB. The highest impactof a single intervention was estimated in studies of TB vaccination, TPT among people living with HIV, and scale-up of ART. Forpreventive interventions, AAPDs for TB incidence varied between 0.06% and 7.07%, and for care-cascade interventions between 0.05%and 3.27%.

CONCLUSION

We describe a body of mathematical modelling research with a focus on TB prevention and care in SA. We found higherestimates of impact reported in studies of preventive interventions, highlighting the need to invest in TB prevention in SA. However, studyheterogeneity and inconsistent baseline scenarios limit the ability to compare impact estimates between studies. Combinations, rather thansingle interventions, are likely needed to reach the End TB Strategy targets in SA.

Tuberculosis control at a South African correctional centre: Diagnosis, treatment and strain characterisation

Background

Correctional centres provide ideal conditions for tuberculosis (TB) transmission and disease progression. Despite the high TB incidence and incarceration rate in South Africa, data from South African correctional centres are scarce. Thus, the study evaluated TB diagnosis, treatment initiation and completion, and identified prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains among detainees entering a South African correctional centre.

Methods

This study was a prospective observational study that enrolled participants between February and September 2017 from a correctional centre located in the Western Cape, South Africa. All adult male detainees who tested positive for TB during admission screening were eligible to participate in the study. Sputum samples from enrolled participants underwent smear microscopy and culture. Strain typing was performed on culture-positive samples. The time between specimen collection and diagnosis, the time between diagnosis and treatment initiation, and the proportion of detainees completing TB treatment at the correctional centre were calculated.

Results

During the study period, 130 TB cases were detected through routine admission screening (126 male, 2 female, 2 juvenile). Out of the 126 eligible male detainees, 102 were enrolled in the study (81%, 102/126). All TB cases were detected within 30 hrs of admission screening. The majority (78%, 80/102) of participants started treatment within 48 hrs of TB diagnosis. However, only 8% (9/102) of participants completed treatment at the correction centre. Sputa from 90 of the 102 participants were available for smear and culture. There was a high smear positivity, with 49% (44/90) of isolates being smear positive. The Beijing family was the most frequent lineage (55.2%) in the study.

Conclusion

The strengths of the current TB control efforts at the correctional centre include rapid detection of cases through admission screening and prompt treatment initiation. However, a high number of detainees exiting before treatment completion highlights the need to strengthen links between correctional TB services and community TB services to ensure detainees complete TB treatment after release and prevent TB transmission.

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing 'current' tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical 'future' tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000-3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000-520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33-86) and 90 (95% CrI 55-145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%-6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%-11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000-870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%-29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000-210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%-44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF ('Xpert') for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

Recommendations for the use of mathematical modelling to support decision-making on integration of non-communicable diseases into HIV care

INTRODUCTION

Integrating services for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into existing primary care platforms such as HIV programmes has been recommended as a way of strengthening health systems, reducing redundancies and leveraging existing systems to rapidly scale-up underdeveloped programmes. Mathematical modelling provides a powerful tool to address questions around priorities, optimization and implementation of such programmes. In this study, we examine the case for NCD-HIV integration, use Kenya as a case-study to highlight how modelling has supported wider policy formulation and decision-making in healthcare and to collate stakeholders' recommendations on use of models for NCD-HIV integration decision-making.

DISCUSSION

Across Africa, NCDs are increasingly posing challenges for health systems, which historically focused on the care of acute and infectious conditions. Pilot programmes using integrated care services have generated advantages for both provider and user, been cost-effective, practical and achieve rapid coverage scale-up. The shared chronic nature of NCDs and HIV means that many operational approaches and infrastructure developed for HIV programmes apply to NCDs, suggesting this to be a cost-effective and sustainable policy option for countries with large HIV programmes and small, un-resourced NCD programmes. However, the vertical nature of current disease programmes, policy financing and operations operate as barriers to NCD-HIV integration. Modelling has successfully been used to inform health decision-making across a number of disease areas and in a number of ways. Examples from Kenya include (i) estimating current and future disease burden to set priorities for public health interventions, (ii) forecasting the requisite investments by government, (iii) comparing the impact of different integration approaches, (iv) performing cost-benefit analysis for integration and (v) evaluating health system capacity needs.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling can and should play an integral part in the decision-making processes for health in general and NCD-HIV integration specifically. It is especially useful where little data is available. The successful use of modelling to inform decision-making will depend on several factors including policy makers' comfort with and understanding of models and their uncertainties, modellers understanding of national priorities, funding opportunities and building local modelling capacity to ensure sustainability.

Use of Digital Technology to Enhance Tuberculosis Control: Scoping Review

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent, with around 1.5 million deaths reported in 2018, and is a major contributor to suffering worldwide, with an estimated 10 million new cases every year. In the context of the World Health Organization’s End TB strategy and the quest for digital innovations, there is a need to understand what is happening around the world regarding research into the use of digital technology for better TB care and control.

Objective

The purpose of this scoping review was to summarize the state of research on the use of digital technology to enhance TB care and control. This study provides an overview of publications covering this subject and answers 3 main questions: (1) to what extent has the issue been addressed in the scientific literature between January 2016 and March 2019, (2) which countries have been investing in research in this field, and (3) what digital technologies were used?

Methods

A Web-based search was conducted on PubMed and Web of Science. Studies that describe the use of digital technology with specific reference to keywords such as TB, digital health, eHealth, and mHealth were included. Data from selected studies were synthesized into 4 functions using narrative and graphical methods. Such digital health interventions were categorized based on 2 classifications, one by function and the other by targeted user.

Results

A total of 145 relevant studies were identified out of the 1005 published between January 2016 and March 2019. Overall, 72.4% (105/145) of the research focused on patient care and 20.7% (30/145) on surveillance and monitoring. Other programmatic functions 4.8% (7/145) and electronic learning 2.1% (3/145) were less frequently studied. Most digital health technologies used for patient care included primarily diagnostic 59.4% (63/106) and treatment adherence tools 40.6% (43/106). On the basis of the second type of classification, 107 studies targeted health care providers (107/145, 73.8%), 20 studies targeted clients (20/145, 13.8%), 17 dealt with data services (17/145, 11.7%), and 1 study was on the health system or resource management. The first authors’ affiliations were mainly from 3 countries: the United States (30/145 studies, 20.7%), China (20/145 studies, 13.8%), and India (17/145 studies, 11.7%). The researchers from the United States conducted their research both domestically and abroad, whereas researchers from China and India conducted all studies domestically.

Conclusions

The majority of research conducted between January 2016 and March 2019 on digital interventions for TB focused on diagnostic tools and treatment adherence technologies, such as video-observed therapy and SMS. Only a few studies addressed interventions for data services and health system or resource management.