Predicting all-cause and lung cancer mortality using emphysema score progression rate between baseline and follow-up chest CT images: A comparison of risk model performances

Impact of COPD pulmonary structural remodeling on the prognosis of patients with advanced lung squamous cell carcinoma

Background

By observing the changes of lung imaging airway structure in patients with advanced lung squamous cell carcinoma（ALUSC）, the relationship between the different types of COPD pulmonary structural remodeling and the prognosis of patients with ALUSC was analyzed.

Methods

We reviewed the medical records of 278 patients with ALUSC. The degree of emphysema and the percentage of bronchial wall thickness（WT%） on chest HRCT were calculated by Synapse3D software, Lung structural remodeling can be divided into there types: airway remodeling dominated, emphysema dominated, and mixed types.

Results

Compared with the diagnosis, the Goddard score increased, the proportion of airway remodeling dominated type decreased and the proportion of mixed type increased during the progression of ALUSC. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, whether with or without COPD, the mPFS and mOS of patients with mixed type were the shortest, and the difference was statistically significant. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that mixed type was an independent risk factor for poor PFS and OS in patients with ALUSC.

Conclusion

Patients with ALUSC all have varying degrees of lung structural remodeling, and patients with mixed lung structural remodeling have the worst prognosis. In addition, the aggravation of emphysema during tumor progression is more pronounced than the thickening of the airway wall, and the changes of emphysema was more powerful in predicting the progression of ALUSC.Clinicians must pay more attention to the changes of COPD (especially emphysema) in the process of diagnosis and treatment of ALUSC.

Automated Coronary Artery Calcium and Quantitative Emphysema in Lung Cancer Screening: Association With Mortality, Lung Cancer Incidence, and Airflow Obstruction

PURPOSE

To assess automated coronary artery calcium (CAC) and quantitative emphysema (percentage of low attenuation areas [%LAA]) for predicting mortality and lung cancer (LC) incidence in LC screening. To explore correlations between %LAA, CAC, and forced expiratory value in 1 second (FEV 1 ) and the discriminative ability of %LAA for airflow obstruction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Baseline low-dose computed tomography scans of the BioMILD trial were analyzed using an artificial intelligence software. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to estimate the predictive value of %LAA and CAC. Harrell C -statistic and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) were reported for 3 nested models (Model survey : age, sex, pack-years; Model survey-LDCT : Model survey plus %LAA plus CAC; Model final : Model survey-LDCT plus selected confounders). The correlations between %LAA, CAC, and FEV 1 and the discriminative ability of %LAA for airflow obstruction were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient and AUC-receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 4098 volunteers were enrolled. %LAA and CAC independently predicted 6-year all-cause (Model final hazard ratio [HR], 1.14 per %LAA interquartile range [IQR] increase [95% CI, 1.05-1.23], 2.13 for CAC ≥400 [95% CI, 1.36-3.28]), noncancer (Model final HR, 1.25 per %LAA IQR increase [95% CI, 1.11-1.37], 3.22 for CAC ≥400 [95%CI, 1.62-6.39]), and cardiovascular (Model final HR, 1.25 per %LAA IQR increase [95% CI, 1.00-1.46], 4.66 for CAC ≥400, [95% CI, 1.80-12.58]) mortality, with an increase in concordance probability in Model survey-LDCT compared with Model survey ( P <0.05). No significant association with LC incidence was found after adjustments. Both biomarkers negatively correlated with FEV 1 ( P <0.01). %LAA identified airflow obstruction with a moderate discriminative ability (AUC, 0.738).

CONCLUSIONS

Automated CAC and %LAA added prognostic information to age, sex, and pack-years for predicting mortality but not LC incidence in an LC screening setting. Both biomarkers negatively correlated with FEV 1 , with %LAA enabling the identification of airflow obstruction with moderate discriminative ability.

Deep Learning for Malignancy Risk Estimation of Pulmonary Nodules Detected at Low-Dose Screening CT

Background Accurate estimation of the malignancy risk of pulmonary nodules at chest CT is crucial for optimizing management in lung cancer screening. Purpose To develop and validate a deep learning (DL) algorithm for malignancy risk estimation of pulmonary nodules detected at screening CT. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, the DL algorithm was developed with 16 077 nodules (1249 malignant) collected -between 2002 and 2004 from the National Lung Screening Trial. External validation was performed in the following three -cohorts -collected between 2004 and 2010 from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial: a full cohort containing all 883 nodules (65 -malignant) and two cancer-enriched cohorts with size matching (175 nodules, 59 malignant) and without size matching (177 -nodules, 59 malignant) of benign nodules selected at random. Algorithm performance was measured by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared with that of the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) model in the full cohort and a group of 11 clinicians composed of four thoracic radiologists, five radiology residents, and two pulmonologists in the cancer-enriched cohorts. Results The DL algorithm significantly outperformed the PanCan model in the full cohort (AUC, 0.93 [95% CI: 0.89, 0.96] vs 0.90 [95% CI: 0.86, 0.93]; P = .046). The algorithm performed comparably to thoracic radiologists in cancer-enriched cohorts with both random benign nodules (AUC, 0.96 [95% CI: 0.93, 0.99] vs 0.90 [95% CI: 0.81, 0.98]; P = .11) and size-matched benign nodules (AUC, 0.86 [95% CI: 0.80, 0.91] vs 0.82 [95% CI: 0.74, 0.89]; P = .26). Conclusion The deep learning algorithm showed excellent performance, comparable to thoracic radiologists, for malignancy risk estimation of pulmonary nodules detected at screening CT. This algorithm has the potential to provide reliable and reproducible malignancy risk scores for clinicians, which may help optimize management in lung cancer screening. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Tammemägi in this issue.