The effects of network topology, climate variability and shocks on the evolution and resilience of a food trade network

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India

The evolving international economic instability and international trade relationship demand a nation to move towards a self-reliant integrated system at a sub-national scale to address the growing human needs. Given India's role in the global trade network, it is critical to explore the underlying extensive complex trade network at the domestic scale. The potential advantages of complex interaction among the different commodities remain unexplored despite the known importance of trade networks in maintaining food security and industrial sustainability. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of agricultural flows in contrast with non-agricultural commodities across Indian states. The spatio-temporal evolution of the networks from 2010-2018 was studied by evaluating topological network characteristics of consistent spatially disaggregated trade data. Our results show an increase in average annual trade value by 23.3% and 15.4% for agriculture and non-agriculture commodities, respectively, with no significant increase in connectivity observed in both networks. However, they depict contrasting behavior concerning the spatio-temporal changes, with non-agriculture trade becoming more dependent on production hubs and the agriculture trade progressing toward self-reliance, which signifies the evolution of the diversification in the existing agrarian trade network. Our findings could serve as an important element in deepening the knowledge of practical applications like resilience and recovery by devising design appropriate policy interventions for sustainable development.

Most influential countries in the international medical device trade: Network-based analysis

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the international medical device trade has received extensive attention. To maintain the domestic supply of medical devices, some countries have sought multilateral trade cooperation or simply implemented export restrictions, which has exacerbated the instability and fragility of the global medical device market. It is crucial for government policymakers to identify the most influential countries in the international medical device trade and nip exports in the bud. However, few efforts have been made in previous studies to explore various countries' influence on the international medical device trade in light of their intricate trade relationships. To fill these research gaps, this study constructs a global medical device trade network (GMDTN) and explores the criticality of various countries from a network-based perspective. The evolution patterns and geographical distribution of influence among countries in the GMDTN are revealed. Details on the ways in which the influence of some crucial countries has formed are provided. The results show that the global medical device trade market is export oriented. The formation of some countries' strong influence may be due to their large number of trading partners or the deep dependence of some of those trading partners on that country (namely, breadth- or depth-based patterns). It is worth noting that the US has a dominant position in the international medical device trade in terms of both breadth and depth. In addition, some countries play a critical role as intermediate points in the influence formation process of other countries, although these countries are not critical direct trading partners. The findings of this study provide implications for policymakers seeking to understand the influence of countries on the international medical device trade and to proactively prepare responses to unexpected changes in this trade.

U. Y, Jiang H. Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China

Since the 2008 global food crisis, food security vulnerability has been a prominent topic in the food policy debate. However, vulnerability is inherently difficult to conceptualize and is more challenging to operationalize and measure. This study constructs a mathematical model and takes China as a case study to measure the vulnerability and sensitivity of China with its partners in the international grain trade. The results show that 1) the degree of interdependence between China and its grain trading partners is asymmetric, which generates trade vulnerability or economic power; 2) the vulnerability of China’s food trade shows a high spatiotemporal heterogeneity among countries: the higher vulnerability zones are concentrated in North America and Northeast Asia, and the scope of the higher vulnerability zones tends to expand; 3) Our results also reveal that China also has different sensitivities to fluctuations in grain markets from different countries, and the higher sensitive zones of the grain trade in China are mainly distributed in America, Europe, and Oceania. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a methodology for food trade vulnerability assessment and examines the influence of international food trade on food security in importing countries, measured using the vulnerability index and sensitivity index. Nevertheless, the conclusions of this study can be considered preliminary, and there remains great potential for future studies to deepen and broaden our analyses further.

Complexity Economics in a Time of Crisis: Heterogeneous Agents, Interconnections, and Contagion

In this article, we consider a variety of different mechanisms through which crises such as COVID-19 can propagate from the micro-economic behaviour of individual agents through to an economy’s aggregate dynamics and subsequently spill over into the global economy. Our central theme is one of changes in the behaviour of heterogeneous agents, agents who differ in terms of some measure of size, wealth, connectivity, or behaviour, in different parts of an economy. These are illustrated through a variety of case studies, from individuals and households with budgetary constraints, to financial markets, to companies composed of thousands of small projects, to companies that implement single multi-billion dollar projects. In each case, we emphasise the role of data or theoretical models and place them in the context of measuring their inter-connectivity and emergent dynamics. Some of these are simple models that need to be ‘dressed’ in socio-economic data to be used for policy-making, and we give an example of how to do this with housing markets, while others are more similar to archaeological evidence; they provide hints about the bigger picture but have yet to be unified with other results. The result is only an outline of what is possible but it shows that we are drawing closer to an integrated set of concepts, principles, and models. In the final section, we emphasise the potential as well as the limitations and what the future of these methods hold for economics.

With or without U(K): A pre-Brexit network analysis of the EU ETS

The European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is commonly regarded as the key pillar of the European climate policy and as the main unifying tool to create a unique carbon price all over Europe. The UK has always played a crucial role in the EU ETS, being one of the most active national registry and a crucial hub for the exchange of allowances in the market. Brexit, therefore, could deeply modify the number and directions of such exchanges as well as the centrality of the other countries in this system. To investigate these issues, the present paper exploits network analysis tools to compare the structure of the EU ETS market in its first two phases with and without the UK, investigating a few different scenarios that might emerge from a possible reallocation of the transactions that have involved UK partners. We find that without the UK the EU ETS network would become in general much more homogeneous, though results may change focusing on the type of accounts involved in the transactions.