Minimal extrathyroidal extension affects the prognosis of differentiated thyroid cancer: Is there a need for change in the AJCC classification system?

Minimal Extrathyroid Extension (mETE) as the Only Risk Factor in Patients with Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (PC): Its Clinical Impact on Recurrence and Outcome during Long-Term Follow-Up

Minimal extrathyroid extension (mETE) effect on papillary thyroid carcinoma (PC) prognosis is still debated even more so now that this factor has been removed in the 8th AJCC Edition, supporting the hypothesis that mETE is not associated with aggressive tumors. We retrospectively enrolled 91 PC patients (Group 1) submitted to total thyroidectomy and radioiodine ablation. At the time of the primary tumor surgery, mETE was ascertained in all patients with no other risk factors, such as multifocality, vascular invasion, neck and distant metastases, and aggressive histological variants. As controls, 205 consecutive matched PC patients (Group 2) without mETE and the aforementioned risk factors were enrolled. During the follow-up (average 8 years), 16/91 (17.58%) Group 1 patients and 15/205 (7.32%) Group 2 patients developed metastases (p = 0.0078). Cox regression analysis showed an increased risk of metastases in patients with mETE (HR: 2.58 (95% CI 1.28-5.22) p = 0.008). Disease-free survival (DFS) was significantly lower in patients with mETE than in controls (p = 0.0059). The present study seems to demonstrate that mETE can be associated with an aggressive PC and can be considered, even alone without other risk factors, an independent factor of unfavorable DFS. Thus, by excluding mETE in the 8th AJCC Edition, patient care and management could be compromised.

Impact of microscopic extrathyroidal extension on differentiated thyroid cancer post-surgical risk of recurrence: a retrospective analysis

PURPOSE

In the last edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC) showing microscopic extrathyroidal extension (mETE) are considered comparable to intrathyroidal cancers for their clinical behavior and prognosis. The aim of the study is to evaluate the impact of this updated assessment of T, when applied to the postoperative recurrence risk stratification, according to the American Thyroid Association Guidelines (ATA-RR).

METHODS

One-hundred DTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy were retrospectively evaluated. The downstaging of mETE was introduced in the definition of T, and the updated classification defined as modified ATA-RR (ATAm-RR). For each patient, post-surgical basal and stimulated thyroglobulin (Tg) levels, neck ultrasound (US) and post-ablative 131-I whole body scan (WBS) reports were considered. The predictive performance (PP) of disease recurrence was calculated both for each single parameter, as well as for all of them.

RESULTS

According to ATAm-RR classification, 19/100 patients (19%) were downstaged. ATA-RR proved a significant PP for disease recurrence (DR) (sensitivity 75.0%, specificity 63.0%, p = 0.023). However, ATAm-RR performed slightly better due to an increased specificity (sensitivity 75.0%, specificity 83.7%, p < 0.001). For both classifications, the PP was optimal when all the above-mentioned predictive parameters were considered.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the new assessment of T considering mETE resulted in a downgrading of ATA-RR class in a significant number of patients. This provides a better PP for disease recurrence, and the best PP was obtained when considering the whole predictive variables together.

Potential impact of obesity on the aggressiveness of low- to intermediate-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma: results from a MASTER cohort study

PURPOSE

Obesity is associated with an increased risk of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Evidence of the impact of obesity on PTC aggressiveness is scarce. We aimed to evaluate the association between the body mass index (BMI) and the presence of aggressive features of low- to intermediate-risk PTC in a prospective cohort.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled 1,032 patients with low- to intermediate-risk PTC who underwent lobectomy at 22 hospitals in Korea and divided into three groups according to BMI, as follows: normal/underweight ( < 23 kg/m2), overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2), and obese ( ≥ 25 kg/m2). Clinicopathological features of PTC at diagnosis were evaluated.

RESULTS

Obese patients had a higher rate of macro-PTC ( > 1 cm) and greater incidence of extra-thyroidal extension (ETE), vascular invasion, and intermediate-risk tumors than those not classified as obese. Increased BMI was positively associated with the incidence of macro-PTC, ETE, vascular invasion, and intermediate-risk category. After adjusting for age, sex, pathological features, metabolic syndrome, thyroid function test, and smoking habits, obesity was a risk factor for ETE (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-2.5, p = 0.005) and intermediate-risk PTC (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-2.5, p = 0.011) in women. The association between obesity and ETE was significant regardless of whether or not women had metabolic syndrome. There was no significant association between obesity and aggressive PTC features in men.

CONCLUSION

BMI at the time of thyroid cancer diagnosis may affect the aggressiveness of low- to intermediate-risk PTC, especially in women.

Metastatic Risk Stratification of 2526 Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients: A Study Based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

The risk of distant metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) has not been well studied. Additional evaluation of MTC metastatic risk can be helpful for improving the quality of medical management. Therefore, we conducted a large population study to develop a method to stratify the risk of metastasis at the initial presentation of MTC patients. We collected 3612 MTC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and included 2526 MTC patients in the study after applying exclusion criteria. We selected the most informative variables from a learning cohort of 2019 patients to obtain 1000 models by repetitive random data splicing into training and regularization cohorts. We selected the optimal model and developed a risk table from that model. Our risk table variables consist of age, gender, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, and lymph node metastasis. The final model showed good calibration when metastatic risk was < 25% and good performance with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.81, 0.84, and 0.84 in the training, regularization, and test cohorts, respectively. We performed K-means clustering analysis on the model's metastatic estimation and determined three risk groups of patients with significant survival differences (p < 0.001). Low-risk patients had 0.88%, 1.3%, and 0.5% while high-risk patients had 19.7%, 15.8%, and 17.8% risk of metastasis in the three cohorts, respectively. The incorporation of our table into the International MTC Grading System (IMTCGS) requires more comprehensive clinicopathological studies.

A critical analysis of the current TNM classification for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in young patients: Time for a change?

BACKGROUND

The current TNM classification that simply classifies differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients younger than 55 years into stage I and stage II based on the presence or absence of distant metastases has been questioned. In this study, we reexamined the impact of T status and N status on prognosis and then developed a new prediction model to improve the predictability of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in young patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Kaplan-Meier method was applied to calculate the CSS. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of T status and N status on CSS after adjustment for known covariates. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were calculated to compare model performance.

RESULTS

A total of 9,242 DTC patients younger than 55 years were enrolled in the study. After adjusting for gender, age at diagnosis, race, pathology subtype, N stage, and M stage, T3 disease [hazard ratio (HR): 3.78, P = 0.006] and T4 disease (HR: 7.96, P < 0.001) remain independent predictors of CSS. Similarly, the 10-year CSS rate of N1b disease (HR: 3.78, P < 0.001) was significantly higher than that of N0 disease after adjustment. Moreover, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the 10-year CSS of stage II disease in younger patients with DTC showed a sharp decrease compared with that in older patients with DTC (74.47% vs. 98.43%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, a modified TNM staging system based on significantly prognostic T stage and N stage was established, which showed better performance than the current TNM staging system (P < 0.05). The new prediction model is also applicable to papillary thyroid carcinoma patients and follicular thyroid carcinoma patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to question the rationality of the current TNM staging system for patients younger than 55 years and successfully develop a new prognostic model, which improves prognostic stratification and guides individualized management.

Microscopic Extrathyroidal Extension Results in Increased Rate of Tumor Recurrence and Is an Independent Predictor of Patient’s Outcome in Middle Eastern Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background

Papillary Thyroid Cancer (PTC) is the most common endocrine malignancy, with recurrence rate as high as 30%. A great deal of controversy surrounds the significance of microscopic extrathyroidal extension (m-ETE) as a prognostic factor. The most recent edition (8^th) of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system has removed m-ETE from the definition of pT3, which suggests that m-ETE may lack prognostic impact in PTC patients. Moreover, data about m-ETE prevalence and clinical impact on Middle Eastern PTC remains unknown. We therefore investigate the prevalence of m-ETE and its clinico-pathological correlation and prognostic impact in Middle Eastern PTC. We also compared the AJCC 7^th and 8^th staging systems and their prognostic performance.

Methods

PTCs from 1430 consecutive adult (> 18 years) patients from single tertiary care hospital were included in this study. A retrospective analysis of PTC patients’ survival and recurrence were compared between AJCC 8^th and AJCC 7^th staging systems using Proportion of Variation Explained (PVE) and Harrell’s C-index.

Results

Median follow up of the study cohort was 9.3 years. 31.2% (446/1430) of patients had m-ETE. In the overall cohort, m-ETE was associated with multiple adverse features such as older age (p < 0.0001), male sex (p = 0.0245), tall cell variant (p < 0.0001), bilateral tumors (p < 0.0001), multifocality (p < 0.0001), lymphovascular invasion (p < 0.0001), lymph node metastasis (p < 0.0001), distant metastasis (p = 0.0166), tumor recurrence (p < 0.0001), radioactive iodine refractoriness (p < 0.0001), BRAF mutation (p < 0.0001) and reduced recurrence-free survival (RFS; HR = 1.75; 95% CI = 1.30 – 2.35; p < 0.0001) irrespective of tumor size. Of the 611 patients with T3 disease based on AJCC 7^th edition, 359 (58.8%) were down-staged in AJCC 8^th edition classification. Overall, the prognostic performance of AJCC 8^th edition was inferior to AJCC 7^th on the basis of lower PVE (3.04% vs. 3.73%) and lower C-index (0.40 vs. 0.48).

Conclusions

In Middle Eastern PTC, m-ETE is significantly associated with compromised survival and acts as an independent predictor of RFS. Given these findings, m-ETE should be included in the thyroid cancer treatment guidelines.

The Diagnostic Usefulness of 131I-SPECT/CT at Both Radioiodine Ablation and during Long-Term Follow-Up in Patients Thyroidectomized for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma: Analysis of Tissue Risk Factors Ascertained at Surgery and Correlated with Metastasis Appearance

¹³¹I Single-photon emission computerized tomography/computerized tomography (SPECT/CT) in the management of patients thyroidectomized for differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) was further investigated. Retrospectively, 106 consecutive DTC patients were enrolled at the first radioiodine ablation, 24 at high risk (H), 61 at low risk (L) and 21 at very low risk (VL). ¹³¹I whole-body scan (WBS) and SPECT/CT were performed after therapeutic doses using a hybrid dual-head gamma camera. At ablation, SPECT/CT correctly classified 49 metastases in 17/106 patients with a significantly (p < 0.001) more elevated number than WBS which evidenced 32/49 foci in 13/17 cases. In this case, 86/106 patients could be monitored in the follow-up including 13/17 cases with metastases already at post-therapeutic scans. SPECT/CT after radioiodine diagnostic doses more correctly than WBS ascertained disease progression in 4/13 patients, stable disease in other 4/13 cases and disease improvement in the remaining 5/13 cases. Further 13/86 patients with only residues at post-therapeutic scans showed at SPECT/CT 16 neck lymph node (LN) metastases, three unclear and 13 occult at WBS. Significant involvement of some tissue risk factors with metastasis appearance was observed, such as minimal extrathyroid tumor extension and neck LN metastases. These risk factors should be carefully considered in DTC patient follow-up where ¹³¹I-SPECT/CT routinely use is suggested as a support tool of WBS.

Minimal extrathyroid extension in papillary micro carcinoma of the thyroid is an independent risk factor for relapse through lymph node and distant metastases

Aims: Minimal extrathyroid extension (mETE) is no longer considered in the new 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system. Therefore, papillary thyroid microcarcinoma with mETE previously staged as pT3 will now be staged as pT1a and most likely not receive adjuvant radioiodine therapy. However, it remains unclear if mETE is associated with higher aggressiveness in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate if mETE is associated with higher risk of lymph node or distant metastases. Methods: 721 patients with thyroid papillary microcarcinoma presenting at our department for postoperative counseling from 05/1983 to 8/2012 were included in this retrospective analysis (median follow-up time 9.30 years). The impact of mETE on the presence of lymph node metastases at thyroidectomy and relapse through lymph node and distant metastases was assessed by logistic regression and Fine-Gray model analyses. Results: 10.7% (n = 77) of patients had mETE. mETE was an independent risk factor for lymph node metastases at thyroidectomy with an adjusted odds ratio of 4.33 (95%CI: 2.02-9.60, p<0.001) in multivariable analysis. Patients with mETE had significantly more relapses through lymph node (over 5 years: 13.1% vs. 1.25%; P < 0.001) and distant metastases (over 5 years: 7.8% vs. 1.1%; P < 0.001) compared to patients without mETE. mETE was an independent risk factor for relapse through lymph node and distant metastases in multivariable analysis (hazard ratio: 7.78, 95%CI: 2.87-21.16, p< 0.001 and 4.09, 95%CI: 1.25-13.36, P = 0.020). Conclusion: mETE is a statistically significant and independent risk factor for relapse through lymph node and distant metastases in papillary microcarcinoma. Therefore, future studies should evaluate, if patients with mETE and microcarcinoma might benefit from intensified surveillance and therapy.

The influence of nodule size on the aggressiveness of thyroid carcinoma varies with patient's age

Background

Thyroid nodule size is one of the key parameters that determines the operative approach for thyroid carcinoma. It is necessary to evaluate the influence of nodule size on the aggressiveness of thyroid carcinoma. The eighth edition of staging system has updated the prognostic age cutoff from 45 to 55 years old. It is needed to re-evaluate the difference in aggressiveness of thyroid carcinoma between younger (<55 years old) and older (≥55 years old) patients. Importantly, whether the influence of nodule size on the aggressiveness of thyroid carcinoma varies according to the new age stratification remains to be explored.

Methods

Medical records from patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with a documented thyroid ultrasonography (US), US-guided fine needle aspiration (FNA) and histopathology were included. The risks of unfavorable events such as central-compartment neck lymph node (CLN) metastasis, lateral-compartment neck lymph node (LLN) metastasis and gross extrathyroidal extension (ETE) were analyzed in four subsets of patients according to size and age.

Results

Large nodule size (≥10 mm) significantly increased the frequencies of CLN metastasis, LLN metastasis and gross ETE (P<0.05). The frequency of CLN metastasis was significantly higher in younger patients compared with that in older ones. Logistic regression analysis recognized large nodule size as an independent risk factor for all CLN metastasis (OR: 3.304, 95% CI: 2.473-4.415), LLN metastasis (OR: 9.673, 95% CI: 4.542-20.597), and gross ETE (OR: 2.430, 95% CI: 1.508-3.916). Secondly, in younger patients, frequencies of all CLN metastasis, LLN metastasis and gross ETE were significantly higher in nodules ≥10 mm than in nodules <10 mm (P<0.001). However, in older patients, no significant difference was found in the frequencies of LLN metastasis or gross ETE between nodules <10 mm and ≥10 mm. Logistic regression analysis showed, in younger patients, large nodule size was an independent risk factor for all CLN metastasis (OR: 3.241, 95% CI: 2.393-4.389), LLN metastasis (OR: 12.495, 95% CI: 5.281-29.562), and gross ETE (OR: 2.591, 95% CI: 1.519-4.419), while in older patients large nodule size was recognized as an independent risk factor for CLN metastasis (OR: 3.924, 95% CI: 1.413-10.899) but not for LLN metastasis or gross ETE.

Conclusions

Large nodule size is significantly related to high aggressiveness of thyroid carcinoma. The correlation between large nodule size and high aggressiveness varies according to patient's age, indicating that the presence of unfavorable events has different clinical significance for patients of varied ages. These findings contribute to accurately assessing the prognosis of individual patient and developing a better management strategy.

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma with minimal extrathyroidal extension. Is its course so indolent that it requires a less aggressive treatment?

BACKGROUND

Although the incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has increased in recent decades, the role played by minimal extrathyroidal extension (mETE) in the prognosis of PTMC is still unclear. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors associated with PTMC with mETE and its long-term prognosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study on patients with a histological diagnosis of PTMC. We excluded patients who had previously undergone thyroid surgery, those who had other synchronous malignancies, those with an ectopic location of the PTMC, and those lost to follow-up within 2years. We compared group 1 (PTMC without extrathyroidal extension) to group 2 (PTMC with mETE) and performed a multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

We observed PTMC with mETE in 11.2% (n=18) of patients. On the multivariate analysis, mETE was associated with age ≥45 years (OR: 4.383; 95% CI: 1.051-18.283, p = .043), tumor size ≥8mm (OR: 5.913; 95% CL: 1.795-19.481; p = .003), bilaterality (OR: 4.430; 95% CI: 1.294-15.173; p = .018) and metastatic lymph nodes (OR: 12.588; 95% CI: 2.919-54.280; p = .001). During a mean follow-up of 119.8±65 months, one recurrence was detected in group 2 (0% vs. 5.6%; p = .112). No patients died of the disease. Disease-free survival was lower in group 2 (124.9±5.6 vs. 97.4±10.3 months; p = .034).

CONCLUSIONS

The mETE of PTMC is a factor of worse prognosis associated with the presence of metastatic lymph nodes and a lower rate of disease-free survival.

Referral Practice for Radioactive Iodine Ablation (RAI) after ATA guidelines 2015: results from a Tertiary Cancer Care Centre

INTRODUCTION

The ATA guidelines for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) are one of the most widely referred to. Their 2015 edition proposed a new risk stratification system and modified the indications for radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation especially for the low risk category. We attempted to analyze whether the new guidelines altered referral practices for RAI ablation at our institute.

METHODOLOGY

Patients who underwent total or completion thyroidectomy for DTC during 2016-2017 were included. Relevant demographical and pathological data was tabulated. Patients were classified as per the new stratification system and referral practice for RAI ablation documented.

RESULTS

238 patients were included. Of these 20.6% were low risk, 44.1% were intermediate and 35.3% were high risk as per modified guidelines. All patients within the intermediate and high-risk group and 77.8% of the low risk group were referred for RAI ablation. Analysis of risk factors revealed that within the low risk group there were three patients with < 5 metastatic nodes, all within 3 cm in size-a category that the ATA failed to stratify appropriately. Among those labeled as Intermediate risk due to microscopic extra thyroidal extension (ETE), 85% had no other risk factors and were upstaged solely due to microscopic ETE, which is interestingly no longer included in the TNM staging.

CONCLUSION

Majority of low risk patients continue to receive RAI ablation due to persistent belief emanating from literature that remnant ablation improves outcomes and aids in follow up. The issue of RAI ablation for low risk group and prognostic implications of microscopic ETE and limited nodal disease need to be revisited.

Machine Learning and Feature Selection Applied to SEER Data to Reliably Assess Thyroid Cancer Prognosis

Utilizing historical clinical datasets to guide future treatment choices is beneficial for patients and physicians. Machine learning and feature selection algorithms (namely, Fisher’s discriminant ratio, Kruskal-Wallis’ analysis, and Relief-F) have been combined in this research to analyse a SEER database containing clinical features from de-identified thyroid cancer patients. The data covered 34 unique clinical variables such as patients’ age at diagnosis or information regarding lymph nodes, which were employed to build various novel classifiers to distinguish patients that lived for over 10 years since diagnosis, from those who did not survive at least five years. By properly optimizing supervised neural networks, specifically multilayer perceptrons, using data from large groups of thyroid cancer patients (between 6,756 and 20,344 for different models), we demonstrate that unspecialized and existing medical recording can be reliably turned into power of prediction to help doctors make informed and optimized treatment decisions, as distinguishing patients in terms of prognosis has been achieved with 94.5% accuracy. We also envisage the potential of applying our machine learning strategy to other diseases and purposes such as in designing clinical trials for unmasking the maximum benefits and minimizing risks associated with new drug candidates on given populations.