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Di Germanio C, Deng X, Grebe E, Johnson JA, Masciotra S, Busch MP, Norris PJ. Performance of a rapid recency assay for detection of early HIV infection. J Clin Virol 2024; 174:105708. [PMID: 38941925 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcv.2024.105708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2024] [Revised: 05/28/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/30/2024]
Abstract
The Asanté HIV-1 Rapid Recency assay's 'verification' line detected HIV infection a median of 18 days later than a nucleic acid detection assay and performed similarly to 19 other existing rapid HIV antibody tests. Pending regulatory approval, the assay could be an option with other rapid tests in national HIV-1 testing algorithms, which would allow collection of HIV recency data as part of a national screening program without requiring additional testing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clara Di Germanio
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, USA; Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA.
| | - Xutao Deng
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, USA; Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA
| | - Eduard Grebe
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, USA; Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA
| | - Jeffrey A Johnson
- Division of HIV Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA
| | - Silvina Masciotra
- Division of HIV Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA
| | - Michael P Busch
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, USA; Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA
| | - Philip J Norris
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, USA; Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA
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2
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Sempa JB, Welte A. Potential for high dynamic range Sedia Limiting Antigen antibody assay to support viral load monitoring during antiretroviral therapy. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0303393. [PMID: 38843247 PMCID: PMC11156293 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 06/09/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Viral Load (VL) monitoring is a crucial component of patient care during antiretroviral therapy (ART) but is not routinely available in many resource-constrained settings, where millions of patients will require care for decades to come. We hypothesise a serologic 'recent infection' test (Sedia LAg assay) which has a high dynamic range for detecting antigen-driven antibody response can provide informative proxies for VL trajectories. METHODS A retrospective study where we analysed data linked via specimens in a well-described repository for recent infection test benchmarking (CEPHIA collaboration). Patient panels were comprised of 1) observations straddling ART start; 2) observations from a period of stable viral suppression; 3) observations straddling rebound after a period of viral suppression. We analysed an individual's Sedia LAg ELISA normalised optical density (ODn) trends within these categories. Using groups 2) and 3) we evaluated the specificity and sensitivity of a proposed proxy for "the latest observation is at a time of VL rebound"; proxy was defined as follows: we estimated patient-specific mean-previous-ODn for all observations with at least two preceding virally suppressed observations. We considered various thresholds to define both "VL suppression" and "ODn uptick". RESULTS In regression analysis by category: 1) ODn gradients are statistically significantly negative just after ART-start (p = 0.010); 2) During periods of stable viral suppression, ODn tended to decline, but not statistically significantly, for a range of clinically meaningful "VL suppression" thresholds; 3) comparing ODn values just before, versus at, "VL rebound", ODn changes were statistically significantly increasing at rebound (p = 0.001). In the analysis comparing groups 2) and 3), at a Z score threshold of 0.8, the proposed proxy for a first viral rebound had an observed specificity and sensitivity both close to 90%. CONCLUSION The high dynamic range of serological tests previously investigated for defining 'recent infection' has potential, as demonstrated using the Sedia LAg ELISA, to provide meaningful information about the success of ART, during treatment initiation, at times of stable suppression, and to flag possible viral rebound. It should be investigated how this can be combined with patient management workflows and (clinical and) other data, to provide efficiencies in long-term monitoring viral control in resource-limited settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph B. Sempa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
- South African Department of Science and Technology—National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Alex Welte
- South African Department of Science and Technology—National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
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Azuri E, Wax M, Gozlan Y, Wagner T, Mor O. Recent HIV-1 infection in Israel 2017-2021: Evaluation of geenius and HIV-1/2 combo assays for identifying recent infection detected by Sedia assay and assessment of factors related to recent infection: Recent HIV-1 infection in Israel. J Clin Virol 2024; 170:105624. [PMID: 38118239 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcv.2023.105624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimating HIV-1 recency of infection for incidence and local outbreaks detection usually involves specifically designed assays. Here, we established an approach to identify recent infections, estimate their rate, and assess potential risk factors. METHODS Randomly selected HIV-1 positive samples (n = 382) collected in 2017-2021 were tested by Sedia and compared to the results of Geenius recency algorithm and the S/CO values of the HIV-1/2 Combo assay. Using Geenius and Combo recency verdict, we assessed all cases diagnosed in 2017-2021. Related factors were further assessed. RESULTS While Geenius and Combo had a sensitivity of 65.9 % and 89.30 %, respectively, and specificity of 96 % and 90 %, respectively, compared to Sedia, higher concordance (97.2 %) and kappa (>0.9) were observed when the verdict of both assays together was compared to Sedia. Using this approach, 15.3 % (238/1548) of individuals diagnosed in 2017-2021 were defined as recently infected. In multivariate analysis, recent diagnosis was mainly associated with men who have sex with men (MSM) and with birthplace in Israel, Western/Central Europe, or North America. CONCLUSIONS Only 15.3 % of infections in 2017-2021, mainly in MSM and Israeli/Western countries-born individuals, were diagnosed early. Regular diagnostic assays have a potential to identify and monitor trends in recent infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eyal Azuri
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Israel
| | - Marina Wax
- National HIV and Viral Hepatitis Reference Laboratory, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ministry of Health, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Yael Gozlan
- National HIV and Viral Hepatitis Reference Laboratory, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ministry of Health, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Tali Wagner
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Israel
| | - Orna Mor
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Israel; National HIV and Viral Hepatitis Reference Laboratory, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ministry of Health, Ramat Gan, Israel.
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4
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Fellows IE, Hladik W, Eaton JW, Voetsch AC, Parekh BS, Shiraishi RW. Improving Biomarker-based HIV Incidence Estimation in the Treatment Era. Epidemiology 2023; 34:353-364. [PMID: 36863062 PMCID: PMC10069749 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2023] [Indexed: 03/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimating HIV-1 incidence using biomarker assays in cross-sectional surveys is important for understanding the HIV pandemic. However, the utility of these estimates has been limited by uncertainty about what input parameters to use for false recency rate (FRR) and mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) after applying a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA). METHODS This article shows how testing and diagnosis reduce both FRR and mean duration of recent infection compared to a treatment-naive population. A new method is proposed for calculating appropriate context-specific estimates of FRR and mean duration of recent infection. The result of this is a new formula for incidence that depends only on reference FRR and mean duration of recent infection parameters derived in an undiagnosed, treatment-naive, nonelite controller, non-AIDS-progressed population. RESULTS Applying the methodology to eleven cross-sectional surveys in Africa results in good agreement with previous incidence estimates, except in 2 countries with very high reported testing rates. CONCLUSIONS Incidence estimation equations can be adapted to account for the dynamics of treatment and recent infection testing algorithms. This provides a rigorous mathematical foundation for the application of HIV recency assays in cross-sectional surveys.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian E. Fellows
- From the Fellows Statistics, San Diego, CA
- Division of Global HIV & TB, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Wolfgang Hladik
- Division of Global HIV & TB, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Jeffrey W. Eaton
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew C. Voetsch
- Division of Global HIV & TB, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Bharat S. Parekh
- Division of Global HIV & TB, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Ray W. Shiraishi
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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5
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Di Germanio C, Yufenyuy EL, Hampton DC, Thorbrogger C, Parekh BS, Norris PJ. A Stable Dried Tube Specimen for Quality Assurance and Training Programs for HIV Rapid Test for Recent Infection. Microbiol Spectr 2023; 11:e0339822. [PMID: 36648237 PMCID: PMC9927143 DOI: 10.1128/spectrum.03398-22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The HIV epidemic is still one of the world's most serious public health challenges, affecting about 38 million people worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan African and Southeast Asian countries. In recent years, tests have been developed to discriminate recent from long-term infection in HIV-infected populations, and these tools can help identify new outbreaks and networks of transmission and target prevention and treatment plans. New rapid tests for recent infection are being deployed in point-of-care settings; however, quality assurance programs need to be implemented to ensure consistency and reliability of the results. We have developed a dried tube specimen (DTS) stabilized with disaccharide trehalose as a quality control reagent for rapid recency testing that can be stored unrefrigerated prior to reconstitution at temperatures up to 37°C for up to 12 weeks. Analysis of 10 trehalose-stabilized DTSs showed that they maintained the same recency classification in all of the samples stored at 4°C and 37°C up to 12 weeks and at 56°C for 2 weeks, while the DTSs prepared without trehalose changed their classification from long-term to recent or recent to negative after storage at 37°C for 12 weeks. Development of DTS quality control reagents will facilitate proficiency and training programs, particularly in settings without cold chain capability in field environments. IMPORTANCE Implementation of stabilized dried tube specimens (DTSs) for quality control and training would facilitate HIV recency programs, especially in point-of-care settings without cold chain availability. This study shows that addition of the disaccharide trehalose to DTSs prior to drying the samples increased stability of the samples across a range of temperatures. This finding provides an affordable way to increase the availability of these key reagents for quality control in resource-constrained settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clara Di Germanio
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Ernest L. Yufenyuy
- Division of Global HIV and TB, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | | | - Bharat S. Parekh
- Division of Global HIV and TB, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Philip J. Norris
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
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Parkin N, Gao F, Grebe E, Cutrell A, Das M, Donnell D, Duerr A, Glidden DV, Hughes JP, Murray J, Robertson MN, Zinserling J, Lau J, Miller V. Facilitating Next-Generation Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Clinical Trials Using HIV Recent Infection Assays: A Consensus Statement from the Forum HIV Prevention Trial Design Project. Clin Pharmacol Ther 2022. [PMID: 36550769 DOI: 10.1002/cpt.2830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Standard-of-care HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious, but uptake of and persistence on a daily oral pill is low in many settings. Evaluation of alternate PrEP products will require innovation to avoid the unpractically large sample sizes in noninferiority trials. We propose estimating HIV incidence in people not on PrEP as an external counterfactual to which on-PrEP incidence in trial subjects can be compared. HIV recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), such as the limiting antigen avidity assay plus viral load used on specimens from untreated HIV positive people identified during screening, is one possible approach. Its feasibility is partly dependent on the sample size needed to ensure adequate power, which is impacted by RITA performance, the number of recent infections identified, the expected efficacy of the intervention, and other factors. Screening sample sizes to support detection of an 80% reduction in incidence for 3 key populations are more modest, and comparable to the number of participants in recent phase III PrEP trials. Sample sizes would be significantly larger in populations with lower incidence, where the false recency rate is higher or if PrEP efficacy is expected to be lower. Our proposed counterfactual approach appears to be feasible, offers high statistical power, and is nearly contemporaneous with the on-PrEP population. It will be important to monitor the performance of this approach during new product development for HIV prevention. If successful, it could be a model for preventive HIV vaccines and prevention of other infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neil Parkin
- Data First Consulting, Sebastopol, California, USA
| | - Fei Gao
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Eduard Grebe
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA.,Edward Grebe Consulting, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Amy Cutrell
- ViiV Healthcare, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Moupali Das
- Gilead Sciences, Foster City, California, USA
| | - Deborah Donnell
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ann Duerr
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Joerg Zinserling
- Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (Bundesinstitut für Arzneimittel und Medizinprodukte, BfArM), Bonn, Germany
| | - Joseph Lau
- Forum for Collaborative Research, Washington, DC, USA
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7
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Kassanjee R, Welte A, Otwombe K, Jaffer M, Milovanovic M, Hlongwane K, Puren AJ, Hill N, Mbowane V, Dunkle K, Gray G, Abdullah F, Jewkes R, Coetzee J. HIV incidence estimation among female sex workers in South Africa: a multiple methods analysis of cross-sectional survey data. Lancet HIV 2022; 9:e781-e790. [PMID: 36075252 PMCID: PMC9626386 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(22)00201-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although numerous studies have investigated HIV risk factors and shown high HIV prevalence among female sex workers in South Africa, no national HIV incidence estimate exists for this potentially important group for HIV transmission. We aimed to estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers in South Africa who could be accessed through sex worker programmes, and to refine and describe the methods that enabled analysis. METHODS This study was embedded in a cross-sectional national survey of female sex workers who were linked to sex worker programmes. We aimed to enrol 3000 female sex workers aged at least 18 years who had sold or transacted in sex in the preceding 6 months in 12 randomly selected districts of the 22 districts with sex worker programmes, ensuring coverage of all provinces of South Africa. Women who self-reported as current victims of human trafficking were excluded from enrolment. We used a multistep process to sample districts and then hotspots, and a chain referral method to recruit participants. We collected cross-sectional data for self-reported HIV status, demographic characteristics, and exposure to violence. Two rapid tests were used to ascertain diagnostic markers, a viral load assay was used to ascertain clinical markers, and the Maxim Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA was used to ascertain infection-staging HIV markers. Given the challenges of estimating HIV incidence, especially cross-sectionally, multiple methods of estimation were adapted to our setting, leveraging the age structure of HIV prevalence, recency-of -infection biomarker results (ie, where recent infection is classified as ≤1·5 normalised optical density [ODn] on the avidity assay and viral load of ≥1000 copies per mL), and reported testing histories. FINDINGS Of 3005 female sex workers who were enrolled and interviewed between Feb 4 and June 26, 2019, 2999 who had HIV test results were included in this analysis. The median age of participants was 32 years (IQR 27-38). 1714 (57·2%) of 2999 participants self-reported as being HIV positive, and 1447 (48·3%) of 2993 participants reported client sexual violence in the past year. The measured HIV prevalence was 62·1% (95% CI 60·3-65·7) and peaked at approximately age 40 years. Using recency-of-infection biomarker results, we obtained a base case estimate of HIV incidence of 4·60 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI 1·53-8·45) for the population. Estimates were generally consistent by method, and outlying incidence estimates calculated by self-reported testing histories were considered unreliable. Various sensitivity analyses produced estimates up to 11 cases per 100 person-years, and we did not detect differences by age and region. INTERPRETATION We found that female sex workers have extraordinarily high HIV incidence of approximately 5 cases per 100 person-years, emphasising the need to sustain and strengthen efforts to mitigate risk and provide adequate care. The notable role that sex work has in HIV transmission demands substantial investment in ongoing epidemiological monitoring. FUNDING South African Medical Research Council, South African National Treasury, Global Fund, South African Department of Science and Innovation, Wellcome Trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reshma Kassanjee
- Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; The South African Department of Science and Innovation-National Research Foundation, Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
| | - Alex Welte
- The South African Department of Science and Innovation-National Research Foundation, Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Kennedy Otwombe
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Maya Jaffer
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Minja Milovanovic
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; African Potential Management Consultancy, Kyalami, South Africa
| | - Khuthadzo Hlongwane
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Adrian J Puren
- South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Naomi Hill
- Wits Reproductive Health Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Venice Mbowane
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Kristin Dunkle
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Glenda Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Fareed Abdullah
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Rachel Jewkes
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Jenny Coetzee
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; African Potential Management Consultancy, Kyalami, South Africa; South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
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8
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Kin-On Lau J, Murdock N, Murray J, Justman J, Parkin N, Miller V. A systematic review of limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay for detection of recent HIV-1 infection to expand supported applications. J Virus Erad 2022; 8:100085. [PMID: 36124229 PMCID: PMC9482108 DOI: 10.1016/j.jve.2022.100085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction The need for detection of new and recent HIV infections is essential for surveillance and assessing interventions in controlling the epidemic. HIV recency assays are one way of providing reliable incidence estimates by determining recent versus non-recent infection. The objective of this study was to review the current body of knowledge of the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay to expand supported applications through an assessment of what is known and the gaps. Methods A search for peer-reviewed literature in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science Core Collection was conducted using the search term “human immunodeficiency virus and avidity”. Non-peer reviewed published reports from the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Project were also included. These were limited to literature published in English between January 2010 and August 2021. Results This search resulted in 2080 publications and 14 reports, with 137 peer-reviewed studies and 14 non-peer reviewed reports that met the inclusion criteria, yielding a total of 151 studies for the final review. There were similar findings among studies that compared the performances of assay manufacturers and sample types. Studies that evaluated various assay algorithms and thresholds were heterogeneous, illustrating the need for context-specific test characteristics for classifying recent infections. Most studies estimated subtype-specific test characteristics for HIV subtypes A, B, C, and D. This was further illustrated when looking only at studies that compared HIV incidence estimates from recency assay algorithms and longitudinal cohorts. Conclusions These findings suggest that the current body of knowledge provides important information that contributes towards distinguishing recent and non-recent infection and incidence estimation. However, there are knowledge gaps with respect to factors that influence the test characteristics (e.g., HIV-1 subtype, population characteristics, assay algorithms and thresholds). Further studies are needed to estimate and establish context-specific test characteristics that consider these influencing factors to improve and expand the use of this assay for detection of recent HIV infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Kin-On Lau
- Forum for Collaborative Research, 1608 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Suite 212, Washington, DC, 20036, USA
| | - Nicholas Murdock
- Forum for Collaborative Research, 1608 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Suite 212, Washington, DC, 20036, USA
| | - Jeffrey Murray
- Forum for Collaborative Research, 1608 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Suite 212, Washington, DC, 20036, USA
| | - Jessica Justman
- ICAP Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, 722 West 168 Street, New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Neil Parkin
- Data First Consulting, Inc, Sebastopol, CA, USA
| | - Veronica Miller
- Forum for Collaborative Research, 1608 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Suite 212, Washington, DC, 20036, USA
- Corresponding author.
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9
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Sempa JB, Grebe E, Welte A. Quantitative interpretation of Sedia LAg Assay test results after HIV diagnosis. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0271763. [PMID: 35901053 PMCID: PMC9333292 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background
Testing for ‘recent HIV infection’ is common in surveillance, where only population-level estimates (of incidence) are reported. Typically, ‘recent infection’ is a category, obtained by applying a threshold on an underlying continuous biomarker from some laboratory assay(s). Interpreting the biomarker values obtained for individual subjects, as estimates of the date of infection, has obvious potential applications in the context of studies of early infection, and has also for some years attracted significant interest as an extra component of post-test counselling and treatment initiation. The applicable analyses have typically run aground on the complexity of the full biomarker growth model, which is in principle a non-linear mixed-effects model of unknown structure, the fitting of which seems infeasible from realistically obtainable data.
Methods
It is known that to estimate Mean Duration of Recent Infection (MDRI) at a given value of the recent/non-recent -infection discrimination threshold, one may compress the full biomarker growth model into a relation capturing the probability of a recent test result as a function of time t since infection, given a value of assay threshold h which defines the recent/non-recent discrimination. We demonstrate that the derivative (gradient), with respect to h. of the probability of recent infection, seen as a function of both t and h, is identical to the formal likelihood relevant to Bayesian inference of the time since seroconversion, for a subject yielding an assay result h, at or close to the date of their first positive HIV test. This observation bypasses the need for fitting a complex detailed biomarker growth model. Using publicly available data from the CEPHIA collaboration, we calibrated this likelihood function for the Sedia Lag assay, and performed Bayesian inference on hypothetical infection data.
Results
We demonstrate the generation of posteriors for infection date, for patients with various delays between their last negative and first positive HIV test, and a range of LAg assay results (ODn) hypothetically obtained on the date of the first positive result.
Conclusion
Depending on the last-negative / first-positive interval, there is a range of ODn values that yields posteriors significantly different from the uniform prior one would be left with based merely on interval censoring. Hence, a LAg ODn obtained on the date of, or soon after, diagnosis contains potentially significant information about infection dating. It seems worth analysing other assays with meaningful dynamic range, especially tests already routinely used in primary HIV diagnosis (for example chemiluminescent assays and reader/cartridge lateral flow tests which admit objective variable line intensity readings) which have a sufficient dynamic range that corresponds to a clinically meaningful range of times-since-infection that are worth distinguishing from each other.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph B. Sempa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
- South African Department of Science and Technology—National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- * E-mail:
| | - Eduard Grebe
- South African Department of Science and Technology—National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Alex Welte
- South African Department of Science and Technology—National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
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10
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Facente SN, Grebe E, Maher AD, Fox D, Scheer S, Mahy M, Dalal S, Lowrance D, Marsh K. Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2022; 8:e34410. [PMID: 35275085 PMCID: PMC8956992 DOI: 10.2196/34410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2021] [Revised: 01/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND HIV assays designed to detect recent infection, also known as "recency assays," are often used to estimate HIV incidence in a specific country, region, or subpopulation, alone or as part of recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs). Recently, many countries and organizations have become interested in using recency assays within case surveillance systems and routine HIV testing services to measure other indicators beyond incidence, generally referred to as "non-incidence surveillance use cases." OBJECTIVE This review aims to identify published evidence that can be used to validate methodological approaches to recency-based incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases. The evidence identified through this review will be used in the forthcoming technical guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) on the use of HIV recency assays for identification of epidemic trends, whether for HIV incidence estimation or non-incidence indicators of recency. METHODS To identify the best methodological and field implementation practices for the use of recency assays to estimate HIV incidence and trends in recent infections for specific populations or geographic areas, we conducted a systematic review of the literature to (1) understand the use of recency testing for surveillance in programmatic and laboratory settings, (2) review methodologies for implementing recency testing for both incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases, and (3) assess the field performance characteristics of commercially available recency assays. RESULTS Among the 167 documents included in the final review, 91 (54.5%) focused on assay or algorithm performance or methodological descriptions, with high-quality evidence of accurate age- and sex-disaggregated HIV incidence estimation at national or regional levels in general population settings, but not at finer geographic levels for prevention prioritization. The remaining 76 (45.5%) described the field use of incidence assays including field-derived incidence (n=45), non-incidence (n=25), and both incidence and non-incidence use cases (n=6). The field use of incidence assays included integrating RITAs into routine surveillance and assisting with molecular genetic analyses, but evidence was generally weaker or only reported on what was done, without validation data or findings related to effectiveness of using non-incidence indicators calculated through the use of recency assays as a proxy for HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS HIV recency assays have been widely validated for estimating HIV incidence in age- and sex-specific populations at national and subnational regional levels; however, there is a lack of evidence validating the accuracy and effectiveness of using recency assays to identify epidemic trends in non-incidence surveillance use cases. More research is needed to validate the use of recency assays within HIV testing services, to ensure findings can be accurately interpreted to guide prioritization of public health programming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelley N Facente
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States.,Facente Consulting, Richmond, CA, United States.,Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Eduard Grebe
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States.,Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States.,South African Centre for Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Andrew D Maher
- South African Centre for Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.,Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Douglas Fox
- Facente Consulting, Richmond, CA, United States
| | | | - Mary Mahy
- Strategic Information Department, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Shona Dalal
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and Sexually Transmitted Infections Programmes, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - David Lowrance
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and Sexually Transmitted Infections Programmes, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Kimberly Marsh
- Strategic Information Department, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland
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11
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Park SY, Faraci G, Murphy G, Pilcher C, Busch MP, Lee HY. Microdrop Human Immunodeficiency Virus Sequencing for Incidence and Drug Resistance Surveillance. J Infect Dis 2021; 224:1048-1059. [PMID: 33517458 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiab060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Precise and cost-efficient human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and drug resistance surveillances are in high demand for the advancement of the 90-90-90 "treatment for all" target. METHODS We developed microdrop HIV sequencing for the HIV incidence and drug resistance assay (HIDA), a single-blood-draw surveillance tool for incidence and drug resistance mutation (DRM) detection. We amplified full-length HIV envelope and pol gene sequences within microdroplets, and this compartmental amplification with long-read high-throughput sequencing enabled us to recover multiple unique sequences. RESULTS We achieved greater precision in determining the stage of infection than current incidence assays, with a 1.2% false recency rate (proportion of misclassified chronic infections) and a 262-day mean duration of recent infection (average time span of recent infection classification) from 83 recently infected and 81 chronically infected individuals. Microdrop HIV sequencing demonstrated an increased capacity to detect minority variants and linked DRMs. By screening all 93 World Health Organization surveillance DRMs, we detected 6 pretreatment drug resistance mutations with 2.6%-13.2% prevalence and cross-linked mutations. CONCLUSIONS HIDA with microdrop HIV sequencing may promote global HIV real-time surveillance by serving as a precise and high-throughput cross-sectional survey tool that can be generalized for surveillance of other pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sung Yong Park
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Gina Faraci
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Gary Murphy
- Public Health England, London, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher Pilcher
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Michael P Busch
- Research and Scientific Programs, Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA.,Deparment of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, California, San Francisco, USA
| | - Ha Youn Lee
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
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12
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Teixeira SLM, Jalil CM, Jalil EM, Nazer SC, Silva SDCC, Veloso VG, Luz PM, Grinsztejn B. Evidence of an untamed HIV epidemic among MSM and TGW in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a 2018 to 2020 cross-sectional study using recent infection testing. J Int AIDS Soc 2021; 24:e25743. [PMID: 34132470 PMCID: PMC8207443 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 04/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Monitoring the HIV epidemic and identifying populations among whom HIV is spreading is critical. We aimed to provide an estimate of the annualized HIV incidence rate using recency testing among cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) at a reference centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS We evaluated MSM and TGW who sought HIV testing at the Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-FIOCRUZ between March 2018 and January 2020. The Limiting Avidity assay (LAg) as part of a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) was employed to identify recent infections (those with a normalized optical density ≤1.5 in the LAg that met all RITA criteria) among those who tested positive for HIV and the annualized HIV incidence was estimated. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Out of 3053 individuals assessed, 2591 (84.9%) were HIV negative and 462 (15.1%) were living with HIV. Among these, 302 (65.4%) with stored samples available were evaluated and 73/302 (24.2%) were classified as recent infections. The annualized incidence rate estimate using a false recency rate of zero was 7.35% (95% CI 5.76% to 9.25%). CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the HIV epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, continues to disproportionately burden vulnerable populations, including MSM and TGW despite the existence and availability of effective preventive and therapeutic interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Cristina M Jalil
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro ChagasFIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | - Emilia M Jalil
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro ChagasFIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | - Sandro C Nazer
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro ChagasFIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | | | - Valdilea G Veloso
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro ChagasFIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | - Paula M Luz
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro ChagasFIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro ChagasFIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
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13
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Rice BD, de Wit M, Welty S, Risher K, Cowan FM, Murphy G, Chabata ST, Waruiru W, Magutshwa S, Motoku J, Kwaro D, Ochieng B, Reniers G, Rutherford G. Can HIV recent infection surveillance help us better understand where primary prevention efforts should be targeted? Results of three pilots integrating a recent infection testing algorithm into routine programme activities in Kenya and Zimbabwe. J Int AIDS Soc 2020; 23 Suppl 3:e25513. [PMID: 32602625 PMCID: PMC7325505 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25513] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2019] [Revised: 03/24/2020] [Accepted: 04/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Surveillance of recent HIV infections in national testing services has the potential to inform primary prevention programming activities. Focusing on procedures required to accurately determine recent infection, and the potential for recent infection surveillance to inform prevention efforts, we present the results of three independent but linked pilots of recency testing. METHODS To distinguish recently acquired HIV infection from long-standing infection, in 2018 we applied a Recent Infection Testing Algorithm that combined a laboratory-based Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay with clinical information (viral-load; history of prior HIV diagnosis; antiretroviral therapy-exposure). We explored potential misclassification of test results and analysed the characteristics of participants with recent infection. We applied the algorithm in antenatal clinics providing prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in Siaya County, Kenya, outreach sites serving female sex workers in Zimbabwe, and routine HIV testing and counselling facilities in Nairobi, Kenya. In Nairobi, we also conducted recency testing among partners of HIV-positive participants. RESULTS In Siaya County, 2.3% (10/426) of HIV-positive pregnant women were classified as recent. A risk factor analysis comparing women testing recent with those testing HIV-negative found women in their first trimester were significantly more likely to test recent than those in their second or third trimester. In Zimbabwe, 10.5% (33/313) of female sex workers testing HIV-positive through the outreach programme were classified recent. A risk factor analysis of women testing recent versus those testing HIV-negative, found no strong evidence of an association with recent infection. In Nairobi, among 532 HIV-positive women and men, 8.6% (46) were classified recent. Among partners of participants, almost a quarter of those who tested HIV-positive were classified as recent (23.8%; 5/21). In all three settings, the inclusion of clinical information helped improve the positive predictive value of recent infection testing by removing cases that were likely misclassified. CONCLUSIONS We successfully identified recently acquired infections among persons testing HIV-positive in routine testing settings and highlight the importance of incorporating additional information to accurately classify recent infection. We identified a number of groups with a significantly higher proportion of recent infection, suggesting recent infection surveillance, when rolled-out nationally, may help in further targeting primary prevention efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian D Rice
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | | | | | | | - Frances M Cowan
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS ResearchHarareZimbabwe
| | - Gary Murphy
- Independent consultant in HIV laboratory diagnosticsLondonUK
| | | | | | | | - John Motoku
- Eastern Deanery AIDS Relief ProgrammeNairobiKenya
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Keating SM, Rountree W, Grebe E, Pappas AL, Stone M, Hampton D, Todd CA, Poniewierski MS, Sanchez A, Porth CG, Denny TN, Busch MP. Development of an international external quality assurance program for HIV-1 incidence using the Limiting Antigen Avidity assay. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0222290. [PMID: 31525218 PMCID: PMC6746377 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2019] [Accepted: 08/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Laboratory assays for identifying recent HIV-1 infections are widely used for estimating incidence in cross-sectional population-level surveys in global HIV-1surveillance. Adequate assay and laboratory performance are required to ensure accurate incidence estimates. The NIAID-supported External Quality Assurance Program Oversight Laboratory (EQAPOL) established a proficiency testing program for the most widely-used incidence assay, the HIV-1 Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA (LAg), with US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-approved kits manufactured by Sedia Biosciences Corporation and Maxim Biomedical. The objective of this program is to monitor the performance of participating laboratories. Four rounds of blinded external proficiency (EP) panels were distributed to up to twenty testing sites (7 North American, 5 African, 4 Asian, 2 South American and 2 European). These panels consisted of ten plasma samples: three blinded well-characterized HIV-1-seropositive samples that were included as replicates and an HIV-negative control. The seropositive samples spanned the dynamic range of the assay and are categorized as either recent or long-term infection. Participating sites performed the assay according to manufacturers’ instructions and completed an online survey to gather information on kit manufacturer, lot of kit used, laboratory procedures and the experience of technicians. On average, fifteen sites participated in each round of testing, with an average of four sites testing with only the Maxim assay, seven testing with only the Sedia assay and five sites utilizing both assays. Overall, the Sedia and Maxim assays yielded similar infection status categorization across the laboratories; however, for most of the nine HIV+ samples tested, there were significant differences in the optical density readouts, ODn (N = 8) and OD (N = 7), between LAg kit manufacturers (p < 0.05 based on mixed effects models. The EQAPOL LAg program is important for monitoring laboratory performance as well as detecting variations between manufacturers of HIV-1incidence assays.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sheila M Keating
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States of America.,Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | - Wes Rountree
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Eduard Grebe
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States of America.,Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | - Andrea L Pappas
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Mars Stone
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States of America.,Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | - Dylan Hampton
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | - Christopher A Todd
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Marek S Poniewierski
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Ana Sanchez
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Cassandra G Porth
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Thomas N Denny
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Michael P Busch
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States of America.,Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
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15
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Facente SN, Busch MP, Grebe E, Pilcher CD, Welte A, Rice B, Murphy G. Challenges to the performance of current HIV diagnostic assays and the need for centralized specimen archives: a review of the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) repository. Gates Open Res 2019; 3:1511. [PMID: 31460496 PMCID: PMC6706958 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13048.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: New challenges for diagnosis of HIV infection abound, including the impact on key viral and immunological markers of HIV vaccine studies, pre-exposure prophylaxis usage and breakthrough infections, and very early initiation of anti-retroviral treatment. These challenges impact the performance of current diagnostic assays, and require suitable specimens for development and evaluation. In this article we review and describe an archive developed by the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA), in order to identify the critical features required to create a centralized specimen archive to support these current and future developments. Review and Findings: We review and describe the CEPHIA repository, a large, consolidated repository comprised of over 31,000 highly-selected plasma samples and other body fluid specimen types, with over 50 purposely designed specimen panels distributed to 19 groups since 2012. The CEPHIA repository provided financial return on investment, supported the standardization of HIV incidence assays, and informed guidance and standards set by the World Health Organization and UNAIDS. Unified data from extensively characterized specimens has allowed this resource to support biomarker discovery, assay optimization, and development of new strategies for estimating duration of HIV infection. Critical features of a high-value repository include 1) extensively-characterized samples, 2) high-quality clinical background data, 3) multiple collaborations facilitating ongoing sample replenishment, and 4) sustained history of high-level specimen utilization. Conclusion: With strong governance and leadership, a large consolidated archive of samples from multiple studies provides investigators and assay developers with easy access to diverse samples designed to address challenges associated with HIV diagnosis, helping to enable improvements to HIV diagnostic assays and ultimately elimination of HIV. Its creation and ongoing utilization should compel funders, institutions and researchers to address and improve upon current approaches to sharing specimens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelley N. Facente
- University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94110, USA
- Vitalant Research Institute (formerly Blood Systems Research Institute), San Francisco, CA, 94118, USA
- Facente Consulting, Richmond, CA, 94804, USA
| | - Michael P. Busch
- University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94110, USA
- Vitalant Research Institute (formerly Blood Systems Research Institute), San Francisco, CA, 94118, USA
| | - Eduard Grebe
- University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94110, USA
- Vitalant Research Institute (formerly Blood Systems Research Institute), San Francisco, CA, 94118, USA
- The South African DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | | | - Alex Welte
- The South African DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Brian Rice
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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