Predicting the impacts of sea level rise in sea turtle nesting habitat on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Uncertain future for global sea turtle populations in face of sea level rise

Sea level rise has accelerated during recent decades, exceeding rates recorded during the previous two millennia, and as a result many coastal habitats and species around the globe are being impacted. This situation is expected to worsen due to anthropogenically induced climate change. However, the magnitude and relevance of expected increase in sea level rise (SLR) is uncertain for marine and terrestrial species that are reliant on coastal habitat for foraging, resting or breeding. To address this, we showcase the use of a low-cost approach to assess the impacts of SLR on sea turtles under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SLR scenarios on different sea turtle nesting rookeries worldwide. The study considers seven sea turtle rookeries with five nesting species, categorized from vulnerable to critically endangered including leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), olive ridley turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas). Our approach combines freely available digital elevation models for continental and remote island beaches across different ocean basins with projections of field data and SLR. Our case study focuses on five of the seven living sea turtle species. Under moderate climate change scenarios, by 2050 it is predicted that at some sea turtle nesting habitats 100% will be flooded, and under an extreme scenario many sea turtle rookeries could vanish. Overall, nesting beaches with low slope and those species nesting at open beaches such as leatherback and loggerheads sea turtles might be the most vulnerable by future SLR scenarios.

Strategic nest site selection in one of the world's largest loggerhead turtle nesting colonies, on Maio Island, Cabo Verde

For species without parental care, such as sea turtles, nest site selection is particularly important for embryo development, hatchling survival and, ultimately, reproductive success. We conducted an 8-year (2012–2019) capture–mark–recapture study of the re-nesting behaviour of loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta to identify both inter- and intra-beach patterns of nest site selection. Our study site, Maio Island in the archipelago of Cabo Verde, hosts one of the largest loggerhead turtle nesting colonies globally. Of 1,060 females analysed, 77% laid repeated clutches within 15 km of their previous nesting sites both between and within nesting seasons. This site fidelity was particularly high (64–71%) for turtles nesting on the east coast of Maio Island. In two areas of the island (north-west and south-east) individual nesting zone consistency was extremely low (10–25%). In all cases extra-zone re-nesting events mainly occurred on the east coast. We also found that females avoided re-nesting near the shoreline, which is particularly relevant in the context of rising sea levels. Overall, loggerhead turtles nesting in Maio Island are philopatric but are using a bet-edging strategy to distribute nests amongst several beaches, choosing the safest area within each beach to maximize their reproductive success. This study highlights the priority sites for protection on Maio Island and could help to optimize capture–mark–recapture programmes. The data reveal the potential for adaptive responses to projected sea level rises.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.