Development and application of a framework to estimate health care costs in China: The cervical cancer example

A novel nomogram and risk stratification for early metastasis in cervical cancer after radical radiotherapy

OBJECT

This study aimed to establish an effective risk nomogram to predict the early distant metastasis (EDM) probability of cervical cancer (CC) patients treated with radical radiotherapy to aid individualized clinical decision-making.

METHODS

A total of 489 patients with biopsy-confirmed CC between December 2018 and January 2021 were enrolled. Logistic regression with the stepwise backward method was used to identify independent risk factors. The nomogram efficacy was evaluated by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index by 1000 bootstrap replications, etc. Finally, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups of EDM based on the cut-off value of nomogram points.

RESULTS

36 (7.36%) CC patients had EDM, and 20 (55.6%) EDM had more than one metastatic site involved. Age below 51 (OR = 2.298, p < 0.001), tumor size larger than 4.5 cm (OR = 3.817, p < 0.001) and radiotherapy (OR = 3.319, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors of EDM. For the nomogram model, C-index was 0.701 (95% CI = 0.604-0.798), and 0.675 (95% CI = 0.578-0.760) after 1000 bootstrap resampling validations. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated no overfitting (p = 0.924). According to the Kaplan-Meier curve of risk score, patients with high risk were more prone to get EDM (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This is the first research to focus on EDM in CC patients. We have developed a robust scoring system to predict the risk of EDM in CC patients to screen out appropriate cases for consolidation therapy and more intensive follow-up.

Epidemiological/Disease and Economic Burdens of Cervical Cancer in 2010-2014: Are Younger Women at Risk?

OBJECTIVE

Cervical cancer is an important factor threatening women's health in China. This study examined the epidemiological and economic burden of cervical cancer among the medically insured population, which could provide data support for government departments to formulate policies.

METHODS

All new cases of cervical cancer under the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) plan in a provincial capital city in eastern China from 2010 to 2014 were collected. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyze the factors affecting the survival rates for cervical cancer. Outpatient and hospitalization expenses were used to assess the direct economic burden, and the Potential Years of Life Loss (PYLL) and potential economic loss were calculated by the direct method to assess indirect burden.

RESULTS

During the observation period, there were 1115 new cases and 137 deaths. The incidence rate was 14.85/100,000 person years, the mortality was 1.82/100,000 person years, and the five-year survival rate was 75.3%. The age of onset was mainly concentrated in the 30-59 age group (82.9%) and the tendency was towards younger populations. The age of onset (HR = 1.037, 95% CI = 1.024-1.051), the frequency of hospitalization services (HR = 1.085, 95% CI = 1.061-1.109), and the average length of stay (ALOS) (HR = 1.020, 95% CI = 1.005-1.051) were the related factors affecting overall survival. Among the direct economic burden, the average outpatient cost was $4314, and the average hospitalization cost was $12,007. The average outpatient and hospitalization costs within 12 months after onset were $2871 and $8963, respectively. As for indirect burden, the average Potential Years of Life Loss (PYLL) was 27.95 years, and the average potential economic loss was $95,200.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiological and economic burden reported in the study was at a high level, and the onset age of cervical patients gradually became younger. The age of onset, the frequency of hospitalization services and the ALOS of cervical cancer patients should be given greater attention. Policymakers and researchers should focus on the trend of younger onset age of cervical cancer and the survival situation within 12 months after onset. Early intervention for cervical cancer patients, particularly younger women, may help reduce the burden of cervical cancer.

The Lifetime Cost Estimation of Human Papillomavirus-related Diseases in China: A Modeling Study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the lifetime treatment costs of patients with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection-related diseases in China and to provide cost estimates for the economic evaluation of HPV intervention strategies.

METHODS

We extracted real-world hospital data from 2012 to 2019 and screened for subjects who met the criteria of clinical diagnosis of HPV-related diseases to obtain country-specific inputs into a Markov decision model. The model simulated lifetime treatment costs for HPV from the perspective of a national payer. A 5% discount rate was applied. Costs were converted and inflated to 2020 US dollars (USD).

RESULTS

Using 2021 as the base year, the lifetime costs per patient for carcinoma in situ, local metastasis, and distant metastasis cervical cancer are $24,208 (95%CI: 18,793-30,897), $19,562 (95%CI: 14,456-25,567), and $17,599 (95%CI: 10,604-25,807), respectively. For carcinoma in situ, local metastasis, and distant metastasis vaginal cancer, the lifetime costs are $17,593 (95%CI: 14,962-23,596), $17,120 (95%CI: 13,215-22,417), and $22,411 (95%CI: 12,172-22,249), respectively. The base-case lifetime cost per patient for different stages of vulvar cancer/penile cancer/anal cancer/oral cancer/oropharyngeal cancer/laryngeal cancer falls within $17,120-$58,236.

CONCLUSIONS

Using real-world data, we calculated lifetime treatment costs of HPV-related cancer in China and found that the lifetime cost for patients exceeded $17,000 for various stages of disease. The national burden of HPV-related disease could be significantly reduced by eliminating HPV infection.

Health economic evaluation of primary human papillomavirus screening in urban populations in China

BACKGROUND

On Nov 17, 2020, WHO launched a global initiative to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer through the implementation of HPV vaccination, cervical cancer screening and treatment for precancer and cancer. China has the largest burden of cervical cancer in the world, but only has a national cervical cancer screening program in rural areas since 2009. Here, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening in urban China, using Shenzhen City as an example.

METHODS

We use an extensively validated platform ('Policy1-Cervix'), calibrated to data from Shenzhen city and Guandong Province. We evaluated a range of strategies that have previously been implemented as pilot studies in China, or recommended as guidelines within China and globally, spanning primary HPV, cytology and co-testing strategies. We additionally considered alternate triaging methods, age ranges and screening intervals, resulting in 19 algorithms in total.

RESULTS

Of the 19 strategies considered, the most effective approach involved primary HPV testing. At 3- to 10-yearly intervals, primary HPV testing reduced the age-standardized cancer mortality rate by 37-71 %. The most cost-effective strategy was 5-yearly primary HPV testing with partial genotyping triage for ages 25-65, discharging to 10-yearly screening for low-risk women (ICER = US$7191/QALYS using 2018 costs; willingness-to-pay threshold<1xGDP [US$9771]). This strategy gave an incidence and mortality reduction of 56 % and 63 %, respectively. This remained the most cost-effective strategy under most conditions in sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

Primary HPV testing would be cost-effective in Shenzhen and could more than halve cervical cancer incidence rates to 6 per 100,000 over the long term. In order to achieve rates below 4 per 100,000, the elimination threshold set by the World Health Organization, vaccination will likely also be necessary.

The economic burden of cervical cancer from diagnosis to one year after final discharge in Henan Province, China: A retrospective case series study

Background

In China, the disease burden of cervical cancer remains substantial. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are expensive and not yet centrally funded. To inform immunization policy, understanding the economic burden of the disease is necessary. This study adopted a societal perspective and investigated costs and quality of life changes associated with cervical cancer from diagnosis to one year after final discharge in Henan province, China.

Methods

Inpatient records of cervical cancer patients admitted to the largest cancer hospital in Henan province between Jan. 2017 and Dec. 2018 were extracted. A telephone interview with four modules was conducted in Jun.-Jul. 2019 with a 40% random draw of patients to obtain direct non-medical costs and indirect costs associated with inpatients, costs associated with outpatient visits, and changes in quality of life status using the EQ-5D-5L instrument. Direct medical expenditures were converted to opportunity costs of care using cost-to-charge ratios obtained from hospital financial reports. For each clinical stage (IA-IV), total costs per case from diagnosis to one year after final discharge were extrapolated based on inpatient records, responses to the telephone interview, and recommendation on outpatient follow-ups by Chinese cervical cancer treatment guidelines. Loss in quality-adjusted life years was obtained using the ‘under the curve’ method and regression predictions.

Results

A total of 3,506 inpatient records from 1,323 patients were obtained. Among 541 randomly selected patients, 309 completed at least one module of the telephone interview. The average total costs per case associated with cervical cancer from diagnosis to one year after final discharge ranged from $8,066-$22,888 (in 2018 US Dollar) and the quality-adjusted life years loss varied from 0.05–0.26 for IA-IV patients.

Conclusions

The economic burden associated with cervical cancer is substantial in Henan province. Our study provided important baseline information for cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV immunization program in China.