Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies.

MAIN BODY

We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) of Poland: An Update of Species Diversity and Current Challenges

This article presents the current state of knowledge of mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) occurring in Poland. In comparison to the most recently published checklists (1999 and 2007), which listed 47 mosquito species, four species (Aedes japonicus, Anopheles daciae, Anopheles hyrcanus, and Anopheles petragnani) are added to the Polish fauna. Our new checklist of Polish mosquito fauna includes 51 species of mosquitoes from five genera: Aedes (30), Anopheles (8), Coquillettidia (1), Culiseta (7), and Culex (5). Aspects of the ecology and biology of the Polish mosquito fauna, with particular emphasis on newly recorded species, are discussed.

First record of Anopheles (Anopheles) hyrcanus (Pallas 1771) (Diptera: Culicidae) in Poland

The spatial distribution of mosquito species in the course of globalization and climate warming is highly dynamic. Different studies have demonstrated the spread and establishment of thermophilic mosquito species, potentially increasing the prevalence of 'nuisance' mosquitoes and the local transmission of pathogens. Here we report the first recorded sampling of Anopheles hyrcanus in Wrocław, southwest Poland. This is the most northern detection of this species to date in Europe. Future spread and population development of this potential vector of malaria parasites, viruses or zoonotic helminths, such as Dirofilaria spp., must be monitored carefully. Potential factors underlying the spread of this species are discussed.

Ecological Predictors of Human Malaria Risk During Different Phases of the Elimination: An Analysis of Historical Data

To understand the evolutionary ecology of disease dynamics, it is crucial to identify the environmental factors that mediate the spread and abundance of parasites and their vectors. However, human-mediated changes in the biotic and abiotic environment and intervention programs are intensifying in the past 30-40 years at a rate that masks the causal effect of the original ecological predictors. In this study, we used archived epidemiological data spanning over 100 years on malaria risk in Hungary to demonstrate that different associations exist between infection risk and environmental predictors during different phases of the elimination program. In the early 20th century, when malaria was quite common in the country and no defense program was operating, as predicted, there was a positive relationship between the area of flooded habitats and the intensity of malaria infection. In contrast, this relationship was absent during middle of the century, when an effective elimination program was already in effect. Furthermore, malaria morbidity in a given year was predicted by the degree of stagnant water cover of the previous year when considering the period before the launch of a drastic mosquito control program by dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), whereas such relationship could not be revealed for a latter period. Our results highlight that human-induced alterations of the socioecological environment considerably reorganizes the ecological landscape of pathogens and their vectors.

West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. The ecological impacts have been substantial (e.g., millions of avian deaths), and economic impacts include livestock deaths, morbidity, and healthcare-related expenses. We trained two Random Forest models with observational climate data and human cases to predict future levels of WNV based on future weather conditions. The Regional Model used present-day data from NY and CT, whereas the Analog Model was fit for states most closely matching the predicted future conditions in the region. Separately, we predicted changes to mosquito-based WNV risk using a trait-based thermal biology approach (Mosquito Model). The WRF model produced control simulations (present day) and pseudo-global warming simulations (future). The Regional and Analog Models predicted an overall increase in human cases of WNV under future warming. However, the Analog Model did not predict as strong of an increase in the number of human cases as the Regional Model, and predicted a decrease in cases in some counties that currently experience high numbers of WNV cases. The Mosquito Model also predicted a decrease in risk in current high-risk areas, with an overall reduction in the population-weighted relative risk (but an increase in area-weighted risk). The Mosquito Model supports the Analog Model as making more realistic predictions than the Regional Model. All three models predicted a geographic increase in WNV cases across NY and CT.

Intensive West Nile Virus Circulation in Serbia in 2018-Results of Integrated Surveillance Program

The results of the Serbian national integrated West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance program conducted in 2018 and funded by the Serbian Veterinary Directorate are presented. The WNV surveillance program encompassed the entire territory of Serbia and was conducted by the veterinary service in collaboration with entomologists and ornithologists. The objective of the program was early detection of WNV circulation in the environment and timely reporting to the public health service and local authorities to increase clinical and mosquito control preparedness. The program was based on the detection of WNV presence in wild birds (natural hosts) and mosquitoes (virus vectors) and on serological testing of sentinel horses (WNV-specific IgM antibodies). The season 2018 was confirmed to be the season of the most intensive WNV circulation with the highest number and severity of human cases in Serbia ever reported. The most intense WNV circulation was observed in the northern and central parts of Serbia including Vojvodina Province, the Belgrade City area, and surrounding districts, where most positive samples were detected among sentinel animals, mosquitoes and wild birds. The majority of human cases were preceded by the detection of WNV circulation during the surveillance. The WNV surveillance program in 2018 showed satisfactory results in the capacity to indicate the spatial distribution of the risk for humans and sensitivity to early detection of WNV circulation in the environment.

Multiplex PCR assay for the identification of eight Anopheles species belonging to the Hyrcanus, Barbirostris and Lindesayi groups

BACKGROUND

Genus Anopheles mosquitoes are the primary vectors of human malaria, which is a serious threat to public health worldwide. To reduce the spread of malaria and identify the malaria infection rates in mosquitoes, accurate species identification is needed. Malaria re-emerged in 1993 in the Republic of Korea (ROK), with numbers peaking in 2004 before decreasing to current levels. Eight Anopheles species (Anopheles sinensis, Anopheles pullus, Anopheles belenrae, Anopheles lesteri, Anopheles kleini, Anopheles sineroides, Anopheles koreicus, Anopheles lindesayi) are distributed throughout Korea. Members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus group currently cannot be identified morphologically. The other species of Anopheles can be identified morphologically, except when specimens are damaged in traps. The purpose of this study was to develop a rapid and accurate method for simultaneous molecular identification of the eight Anopheles species present in the ROK.

METHODS

Anopheles spp. used in this study were collected near/in the demilitarized zone in ROK, where most malaria cases are reported. DNA from 165 of the Anopheles specimens was used to develop a multiplex PCR assay. The internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) region of each species was sequenced and analysed for molecular identification.

RESULTS

DNA from a total of 165 Anopheles specimens was identified to species using a multiplex diagnostic system. These included: 20 An. sinensis, 21 An. koreicus, 17 An. lindesayi, 25 An. kleini, 11 An. lesteri, 22 An. sineroides, 23 An. belenrae, and 26 An. pullus. Each species was clearly distinguished by electrophoresis as follows: 1,112 bp for An. sinensis; 925 bp for An. koreicus; 650 bp for An. lindesayi; 527 bp for An. kleini; 436 bp for An. lesteri; 315 bp for An. sineroides; 260 bp for An. belenrae; and, 157 bp for An. pullus.

CONCLUSION

A multiplex PCR assay was developed to identify Anopheles spp. distributed in ROK. This method can be used to accurately identify Anopheles species that are difficult to identify morphologically to determine species distributions and malaria infection rates.

Genetic Population Structure of Wild Pigs in Southern Texas

Simple Summary

Wild pigs are the most abundant wild exotic ungulate in the United States. In Texas, particularly, they are abundant and represent a threat to ecosystems, agriculture and humans. Our objective was to apply a landscape-scale analysis of population genetic structure of wild pigs to aid in their management in southern Texas. We used microsatellites to assist large-scale applied management. We found that some populations were isolated from one another. However, many individuals and local populations were admixed, which indicates that multiple introductions and artificial movement of individuals has occurred. Wild pig management efficiency and effectiveness may be able to improve if illegal translocations stop (e.g., enforcing laws) and if management cooperatives are created to manage spatially extensive areas of southern Texas.

Abstract

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) alter ecosystems, affect the economy, and carry diseases that can be transmitted to livestock, humans, and wildlife. Understanding wild pig movements and population structure data, including natural population boundaries and dispersal, may potentially increase the efficiency and effectiveness of management actions. We trapped, conducted aerial shootings, and hunted wild pigs from 2005 to 2009 in southern Texas. We used microsatellites to assist large-scale applied management. We quantify broad-scale population structure among 24 sites across southern Texas by computing an overall F_ST value, and a Bayesian clustering algorithm both with and without considering the spatial location of samples. At a broad geographic scale, pig populations displayed a moderate degree of genetic structure (F_ST = 0.11). The best partition for number of populations, based on 2nd order rate of change of the likelihood distribution, was K = 10 genetic clusters. The spatially explicit Bayesian clustering algorithm produced similar results, with minor differences in designation of admixed sites. We found evidence of past (and possibly ongoing) translocations; many populations were admixed. Our original goal was to identify landscape features, such as barriers or dispersal corridors, that could be used to aid management. Unfortunately, the extensive admixture among clusters made this impossible. This research shows that large-scale management of wild pigs may be necessary to achieve control and ameliorate damages. Reduction or cessation of translocations is necessary to prevent human-mediated dispersion of wild pigs.