Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor

Estimating risk to prevent damage: predicting and preventing coypu (Myocastor coypus) damage to transport infrastructure

BACKGROUND

A major impact of invasive Myocastor coypus in their introduction range is the collapse of riverbanks and nearby infrastructure, such as railway lines, due to the species' burrowing activities. Because widespread implementation of preventive measures along watercourses is unfeasible, identifying susceptible areas is key to guide targeted management actions. This study used species-habitat models to: (i) identify local environmental features of the railway line/watercourse intersections (RLWIs) that make them particularly susceptible to coypu damage, and (ii) predict species occurrence probability over a wide lowland-hilly area of northern Italy (Lombardy) to identify priority areas for monitoring.

RESULTS

Local-scale models identified that the RLWIs most susceptible to burrowing were those surrounded by arable land with interspersed hedgerows locally characterized by high herbaceous vegetation and clay soil. In urbanized areas and areas of intensive agriculture, coypu dens were generally located significantly closer to the railway, increasing the risk of collapse. A landscape-scale species distribution model showed that lowland areas along major rivers and lake shores, and also agricultural areas with a dense minor hydrographic network, particularly in the southeast of the study area, are more likely to be occupied by coypu.

CONCLUSION

Local-scale models showed that specific environmental characteristics increase the risk of burrowing near RLWIs. The landscape-scale model allowed us to predict which areas require thorough monitoring of RLWIs to search for such local characteristics to implement preventive management measures. The proposed model-based framework can be applied to any geographical context to predict and prevent coypu damage. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

First evidence of widespread positivity to anticoagulant rodenticides in grey wolves (Canis lupus)

Second-generation Anticoagulant Rodenticides (ARs) can be critical for carnivores, due to their widespread use and impacts. However, although many studies explored the impacts of ARs on small and mesocarnivores, none assessed the extent to which they could contaminate large carnivores in anthropized landscapes. We filled this gap by exploring spatiotemporal trends in grey wolf (Canis lupus) exposure to ARs in central and northern Italy, by subjecting a large sample of dead wolves (n = 186) to the LC-MS/MS method. Most wolves (n = 115/186, 61.8 %) tested positive for ARs (1 compound, n = 36; 2 compounds, n = 47; 3 compounds, n = 16; 4 or more compounds, n = 16). Bromadiolone, brodifacoum and difenacoum, were the most common compounds, with brodifacoum and bromadiolone being the ARs that co-occurred the most (n = 61). Both the probability of testing positive for multiple ARs and the concentration of brodifacoum, and bromadiolone in the liver, systematically increased in wolves that were found at more anthropized sites. Moreover, wolves became more likely to test positive for ARs through time, particularly after 2020. Our results underline that rodent control, based on ARs, increases the risks of unintentional poisoning of non-target wildlife. However, this risk does not only involve small and mesocarnivores, but also large carnivores at the top of the food chain, such as wolves. Therefore, rodent control is adding one further conservation threat to endangered large carnivores in anthropized landscapes of Europe, whose severity could increase over time and be far higher than previously thought. Large-scale monitoring schemes for ARs in European large carnivores should be devised as soon as possible.

Changes in Wolf Occupancy and Feeding Habits in the Northern Apennines: Results of Long-Term Predator-Prey Monitoring

The comprehension of the factors that have influenced the recent changes in wolf (Canis lupus) range and diet that have occurred in our study area, characterized by a highly heterogeneous landscape, can shed light on their current process of expansion toward the plain. Wolf presence was monitored using a standardized protocol from 2007 to 2022 by carrying out eight monitoring sessions organized in seasonal surveys, during which, we collected wolf presence data. To model wolf range dynamics, we used dynamic occupancy models considering land cover types and wild ungulate abundances as covariates. Moreover, we studied the wolf diet through scat analysis, identifying the consumed items from undigested remains. Wolf occupancy in the study area progressed from mountains to lower hills gradually; the observed range dynamics were driven by prey abundance and human presence: in particular, the probability of colonization increased with roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) abundance, whereas the probability of extinction increased with urban areas. The wolf diet showed a gradual shift from the prevalent consumption of wild boar (2007-2008 and 2011-2012) to the prevalent consumption of roe deer (continuously increasing from 2015 onward). Our results might be related to a specific adaptation of the predator to the local ecology of the most consumed species: the roe deer.

Modelling elephant corridors over two decades reveals opportunities for conserving connectivity across a large protected area network

Protected area (PA) connectivity is pivotal for the persistence of wide-ranging wildlife species, but is challenged by habitat loss and fragmentation. We analyzed habitat suitability and connectivity for the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) across PAs in south-western Tanzania in 2000, 2010, and 2019. We quantified land-use changes through remote sensing data; estimated habitat suitability through aerial survey data, remotely sensed variables and ensemble species distribution models; modelled least-cost corridors; identified the relative importance of each corridor for the connectivity of the PA network and potential bottlenecks over time through circuit theory; and validated corridors through local ecological knowledge and ground wildlife surveys. From 2000 to 2019, cropland increased from 7% to 13% in the region, with an average expansion of 634 km2 per year. Distance from cropland influenced elephant distribution models the most. Despite cropland expansion, the locations of the modelled elephant corridors (n = 10) remained similar throughout the survey period. Based on local ecological knowledge, nine of the modelled corridors were active, whereas one modelled corridor had been inactive since the 1970s. Based on circuit theory, we prioritize three corridors for PA connectivity. Key indicators of corridor quality varied over time, whereas elephant movement through some corridors appears to have become costlier over time. Our results suggest that, over the past two decades, functional connectivity across the surveyed landscape has largely persisted. Beyond providing crucial information for spatial prioritization of conservation actions, our approach highlights the importance of modeling functional connectivity over time and verifying corridor models with ground-truthed data.

Hide-and-Seek in a Highly Human-Dominated Landscape: Insights into Movement Patterns and Selection of Resting Sites of Rehabilitated Wolves (Canis lupus) in Northern Italy

Assessing the behavioural responses of floating wolves to human presence is crucial for investigating the chance of wolf populations expanding into urbanised landscapes. We studied the movement ecology of three rehabilitated wolves in a highly human-dominated landscape (Po Plain, Italy) to explore wolf's plasticity amid widespread human pressure. To reach this aim, we estimated individual 95% utilisation distributions (UD) after the release and inspected both 95% UDs and net squared displacements to identify individual movement patterns; tested for differences in movement patterns during day and night; and analysed the selection of resting sites during dispersal movement in a highly human-altered environment. Both the 95% UDs and step lengths were smaller for wolves settling in suitable areas than for those settling in more urbanised areas. All wolves exhibited strong temporal segregation with humans during all movement phases, particularly while dispersing across highly urbanised areas. Main roads and proximity to built-up areas were shown to limit wolves' dispersal, whereas small-wooded patches that provide shelter during rest facilitated long-distance movements. This study provides important insights into wolf movement and settling in urban and peri-urban areas, providing critical knowledge to promote human-carnivore coexistence.

Reconciling cities with nature: Identifying local Blue-Green Infrastructure interventions for regional biodiversity enhancement

Increasing urbanization degrades quantity, quality, and the functionality of spatial cohesion of natural areas essential to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. The uncontrolled pace of building activity and the erosion of blue (i.e., aquatic) and green (i.e., terrestrial) landscape elements threaten existing habitat ranges and movability of wildlife. Local scale measures, such as nature-inspired engineered Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) are emerging mitigation solutions. Originally planned to promote sustainable stormwater management, adaptation to climate change and improved human livability in cities, such instruments offer interesting synergies for biodiversity in support of existing ecological infrastructure. BGI are especially appealing for globally declining amphibians, a rich and diverse vertebrate assemblage sensitive to urbanization. We integrated biological and highly resolved urban-rural land-cover data, ensemble models of habitat suitability, and connectivity models based on circuit theory to improve multi-scale and multi-species protection of core habitats and ecological corridors in the Swiss lowlands. Considering a broad spectrum of amphibian biodiversity, we identified distributions of amphibian biodiversity hotspots and four landscape elements essential to amphibian movability at the regional scale, namely i) forest edges, ii) wet-forest habitats, iii) soils with variable moisture and iv) riparian zones. Our work shows that cities can make a substantial contribution (e.g., up to 15% of urban space in the study area) to wider landscape habitat connectivity. We highlight the importance of planning BGI locally in strategic locations across urban and peri-urban areas to promote the permeability and availability of 'stepping stone' habitats in densely populated landscapes, essential to the maintenance of regional habitat connectivity and thereby enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Identifying ecological corridors for the Chinese ecological conservation redline

Due to the fragmentation of protected areas (PA), it is important to build ecological corridors in order to connect scattered PA and form protection networks for biodiversity conservation. We take the Chinese ecological conservation redline (ECR) as an example to study the construction of ecological corridors. China has defined ECR to improve the system of PA in key ecological functional zones, nature reserves, and areas of sensitive and fragile ecological environment. In this study, 187 core areas of ECR were identified using ArcGIS masking and dissolving technology to build corridors, covering 95% of the total ECR areas. Using the Linkage Mapper tool and the Pinchpoint Mapper, we identified 454 ecological corridors 68,794 km long. The results of the line density analysis showed that there are 9 key regional biological corridors connected to the ECR at the national scale, which must focus on protecting and strengthening ecological construction during the implementation of ecological conservation redline policy. Our study will provide references for developing a regional pattern of ecological security, territorial spatial planning, and will promote the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

Patterns and determinants of dispersal in grey wolves (Canis lupus)

Dispersal is a key demographic process involving three stages: emigration, transience and settlement; each of which is influenced by individual, social and environmental determinants. An integrated understanding of species dispersal is essential for demographic modelling and conservation planning. Here, we review the dispersal patterns and determinants documented in the scientific literature for the grey wolf (Canis lupus) across its distribution range. We showed a surprisingly high variability within and among study areas on all dispersal parameters - dispersal rate, direction, distance, duration and success. We found that such large variability is due to multiple individual, social and environmental determinants, but also due to previously overlooked methodological research issues. We revealed a potential non-linear relationship between dispersal rate and population density, with dispersal rate higher at both ends of the gradient of population density. We found that human-caused mortality reduces distance, duration and success of dispersal events. Furthermore, dispersers avoid interaction with humans, and highly exposed areas like agricultural lands hamper population connectivity in many cases. We identified numerous methodological research problems that make it difficult to obtain robust estimates of dispersal parameters and robust inferences on dispersal patterns and their determinants. In particular, analyses where confounding factors were not accounted for led to substantial knowledge gaps on all aspects of dispersal in an otherwise much-studied species. Our understanding of wolf biology and management would significantly benefit if wolf dispersal studies reported the results and possible factors affecting wolf dispersal more transparently.

En route to the North: modelling crested porcupine habitat suitability and dispersal flows across a highly anthropized area in northern Italy

The crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) underwent a rapid and widespread range expansion in Italy. Nowadays the species is moving towards the northernmost regions of the country and its occurrence is increasing in the highly anthropized Po Plain. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Po Plain for the species, as well as to identify dispersal corridors connecting the northern Apennines occurrence areas and the Prealps. We modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Additionally, a habitat suitability prediction carried out at a finer scale was used to parametrize the landscape resistance, based on which we modelled the potential dispersal corridors for the species using a factorial least-cost path approach. The ensemble prediction estimated a potential occurrence of the crested porcupine in 27.4% of the study area. The species occurrence probability was mainly driven by the distribution of extensive cultivations, woodlands and shrublands, and water courses and by the annual mean temperature. Conversely, the movements of the species resulted mainly sustained by woodlands and shrublands and highly hindered by simple arable lands and rice paddies. The connectivity prediction showed that three main dispersal routes are likely to connect crested porcupine occurrence areas in the northern Apennines to currently unoccupied but highly suitable areas in the Prealps. The study allowed us to identify the areas in the Prealps with the highest probability to be colonized by the crested porcupine in the near future and provided important insights for the conservation of a strictly protected species in a human-dominated landscape.

Genetic Population Structure of Wild Pigs in Southern Texas

Simple Summary

Wild pigs are the most abundant wild exotic ungulate in the United States. In Texas, particularly, they are abundant and represent a threat to ecosystems, agriculture and humans. Our objective was to apply a landscape-scale analysis of population genetic structure of wild pigs to aid in their management in southern Texas. We used microsatellites to assist large-scale applied management. We found that some populations were isolated from one another. However, many individuals and local populations were admixed, which indicates that multiple introductions and artificial movement of individuals has occurred. Wild pig management efficiency and effectiveness may be able to improve if illegal translocations stop (e.g., enforcing laws) and if management cooperatives are created to manage spatially extensive areas of southern Texas.

Abstract

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) alter ecosystems, affect the economy, and carry diseases that can be transmitted to livestock, humans, and wildlife. Understanding wild pig movements and population structure data, including natural population boundaries and dispersal, may potentially increase the efficiency and effectiveness of management actions. We trapped, conducted aerial shootings, and hunted wild pigs from 2005 to 2009 in southern Texas. We used microsatellites to assist large-scale applied management. We quantify broad-scale population structure among 24 sites across southern Texas by computing an overall F_ST value, and a Bayesian clustering algorithm both with and without considering the spatial location of samples. At a broad geographic scale, pig populations displayed a moderate degree of genetic structure (F_ST = 0.11). The best partition for number of populations, based on 2nd order rate of change of the likelihood distribution, was K = 10 genetic clusters. The spatially explicit Bayesian clustering algorithm produced similar results, with minor differences in designation of admixed sites. We found evidence of past (and possibly ongoing) translocations; many populations were admixed. Our original goal was to identify landscape features, such as barriers or dispersal corridors, that could be used to aid management. Unfortunately, the extensive admixture among clusters made this impossible. This research shows that large-scale management of wild pigs may be necessary to achieve control and ameliorate damages. Reduction or cessation of translocations is necessary to prevent human-mediated dispersion of wild pigs.

First assessment of habitat suitability and connectivity for the golden jackal in north-eastern Italy

Compared with the rapid expansion across Europe, the golden jackal colonization of Italy is still limited and slow. No study focused on the habitat selection or landscape connectivity for this species was performed in Italy; thus, the potential distribution and dispersal patterns in the country remain unknown. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (north-eastern Italy) for the golden jackal, as well as to identify the ecological corridors connecting the areas currently occupied by the species. Corridors modelling allowed us both to hypothesize the dispersal dynamics occurring in the study region and to identify possible obstacles to future range expansion. We surveyed golden jackal presence in two study areas, covering an area of 500 km2, from March 2017 to February 2018. Using collected data, we modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Subsequently, a habitat suitability prediction at a finer scale was used to estimate landscape resistance, starting from which, we modelled dispersal corridors among areas currently occupied by the species using a factorial least cost path and a cumulative resistant kernel approach. Our results indicated a moderate potential for large parts of the study region to support the occurrence of golden jackal family groups, whose presence seems to be mainly driven by the presence of wide areas covered by broadleaved forests and shrublands and by the absence of wide intensive agricultural areas. The predicted connectivity networks showed that three main permeable corridors are likely to connect golden jackal occurrence areas within the study region, while all the other corridors are characterized by a very low path density. Both the habitat selection and connectivity analyses showed a strong negative impact of the intensive cultivated plain on species stable presence and movement providing critical information for the conservation of the golden jackal in Italy.