Flight safety assessment based on an integrated human reliability quantification approach

Flight safety assessment based on a modified human error risk quantification approach

In risk and safety assessments of aviation systems, engineers generally pay more attention to the risks of hardware or software failure and focus less on the risks caused by human errors. In this paper, a (FRAHE) method is proposed for identifying this critical error type and determining the risk severity of human errors. This method accounts for the human error probability as well as the impacts of human errors on the system. The fuzzy inference approach is employed in this paper to address the uncertainty and issues of imprecision that arise from insufficient information and scarce error data and a risk assessment model of human error is developed. The model can be used to precisely describe the relationship between the output risk severity and the input risk indicators, including the human error probability, the error impact probability, and the human error consequence. A case study of the approach task is presented to demonstrate the availability and reasonability of the model. The risk-based modeling method can not only provide valuable information for reducing the occurrence of critical errors but also be used to conduct prospective analyses to prevent unsafe incidents or aviation accidents.

An inter-method comparison of four Human Reliability Assessment models

This paper presents a comparison of four common Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) models through a scoping literature review and sensitivity analysis. The scoping literature review identified 72 relevant studies which formed the basis of the comparison. Studies reported the four selected models have similarities in terms of the sector of origin, applied sectors, output calculation, and a lack of clear guidelines on Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) selection and risk level allocation. The studied models have differences in the number and type of PIF inputs and Human Error Probability (HEP) calculation procedures. The One Factor At a Time (OFAT) and "combined" sensitivity analysis were conducted to examine the HRA models' responses to systematic risk level changes when each of 8 matching PIFs were systematically set to "high" and then "low" levels individually and simultaneously. The OFAT analysis showed coefficients of variation (CV) in HEP varying from 9% for skills/training up to 94% for work procedure when the PIFs are assigned to a "low" risk level individually. The combined analysis showed the median HEP value close to 97% and 1% when PIFs are assigned to" high" and "low" risk levels respectively. Although the selected HRA models were reported to be validated in high-risk domains there was no study found that validated these models in low-risk domains such as manual order picking, or manual assembly lines. The HRA models examined here are disconnected from specific system design elements which can inhibit design improvement efforts. The study outcome suggests the need for clear guidelines for PIFs selection and risk level allocation. Future research should address both the connection of error assessment to the design of the system and the features of new HRA models that affect its reliability and validity in a variety of industrial contexts.

THE CAUSES OF OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS IN HUMAN RESOURCES: THE HUMAN FACTORS THEORY AND THE ACCIDENT THEORY PERSPECTIVE

Background: Despite many precautions have been taken in our country, the number of occupational accidents elevates continously. In the literature, the causes of accidents caused by human error are usually determined by a single theory base. However, according to the combination theorem; The real causes of occupational accidents can only be found by adopting more than one theory. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the causes of occupational accidents in human resources with combination of Human Factors and Accident Theory. Methods: We examined 600 occupational accident reports and our data was analyzed with SPSS version 20.0. Results: Five basic dimensions of occupational accidents related to human resources have been determined. Occupational accidents caused by tiredness and inadequacy differ in favor of the fatal accident type, while the others differ in favor of the injury accident type. The dimensions of tiredness and erroneous behavior differ in favor of the cut injury type, while other accidents differ in favor of the fall from height type. Conclusion: In the context of the combination theorem, the most dangerous causes of occupational accidents due to human resources are overload and ergonomic traps. Tiredness, inexperience and inadequacy dimensions are the among the other most dangerous causes.

Human Error Probability Determination in Blasting Process of Ore Mine using a hybrid of HEART and Best-Worst Methods

Background

One of the important actions for enhancing human reliability in any industry is assessing human error probability (HEP). The HEART technique is a robust tool for calculating HEP in various industries. The traditional HEART has some weaknesses due to expert judgment. For these reasons, a hybrid model is presented in this study to integrate HEART with Best-Worst Method.

Materials Method

In this study, the blasting process in an iron ore mine was investigated as a case study. The proposed HEART-BWM was used to increase the sensitivity of APOA calculation. Then the HEP was calculated using conventional HEART formula. A consistency ratio was calculated using BWM. Finally, for verification of the HEART-BWM, HEP calculation was done by traditional HEART and HEART-BWM.

Results

In the view of determined HEPs, the results showed that the mean of HEP in the blasting of the iron ore process was 2.57E-01. Checking the full blast of all the holes after the blasting sub-task was the most dangerous task due to the highest HEP value, and it was found 9.646E-01. On the other side, obtaining a permit to receive and transport materials was the most reliable task, and the HEP was 8.54E-04.

Conclusion

The results showed a good consistency for the proposed technique. Comparing the two techniques confirmed that the BWM makes the traditional HEART faster and more reliable by performing the basic comparisons.

State of science: evolving perspectives on 'human error'

This paper reviews the key perspectives on human error and analyses the core theories and methods developed and applied over the last 60 years. These theories and methods have sought to improve our understanding of what human error is, and how and why it occurs, to facilitate the prediction of errors and use these insights to support safer work and societal systems. Yet, while this area of Ergonomics and Human Factors (EHF) has been influential and long-standing, the benefits of the 'human error approach' to understanding accidents and optimising system performance have been questioned. This state of science review analyses the construct of human error within EHF. It then discusses the key conceptual difficulties the construct faces in an era of systems EHF. Finally, a way forward is proposed to prompt further discussion within the EHF community. Practitioner statement This state-of-science review discusses the evolution of perspectives on human error as well as trends in the theories and methods applied to understand, prevent and mitigate error. It concludes that, although a useful contribution has been made, we must move beyond a focus on an individual error to systems failure to understand and optimise whole systems.

Human reliability analysis in de-energization of power line using HEART in the context of Z-numbers

Investigation reveals that a high percentage of incident causes are ascribed to some forms of human error. To effectively prevent incidents from happening, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), as a structured way to represent unintentional operator contribution to system reliability, is a critical issue. Human Error Reduction and Assessment Technique (HEART) as a famous HRA technique, provides a straightforward method to estimate probabilities of human error based on the analysis of tasks. However, it faces varying levels of uncertainty in assigning of weights to each error producing condition (EPC), denoted as assessed proportion of affect (APOA), by experts. To overcome this limitation and consider the confidence level (reliability or credibility) of the experts, the current study aimed at proposing a composite HEART methodology for human error probability (HEP) assessment, which integrates HEART and Z-numbers short for, Z-HEART. The applicability and effectiveness of the Z-HEART has been illustrated in the de-energization power line as a case study. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is fulfilled to investigate the validity of the proposed methodology. It can be concluded that Z-HEART is feasible for assessing human error, and despite the methodological contributions, it offers many advantages for electricity distribution companies.

Benign or disordered development? Assessment and simulation of security of highly aggregated tourist crowds in China

Arising with increasing security issues in highly aggregated tourist crowds (HATCs), widespread attention has been dedicated to security status. Assessing and forecasting the security status of HATCs in various situations related to tourist destinations is an important strategy of security management. Thus, this study constructed a system dynamic flow diagram for the security evaluation of HATCs. The relevant data were collected on perceptions of crowded tourists through questionnaires at Tianyou Peak during China's National Day (Golden Week Holiday). Additionally, efforts were made to conduct online surveys at Shanghai Disney Park and Shilin Night Market in Taipei, since crowding always occurs in these two areas. Empirical results based on Vensim software suggest that HATC status is the result of the coupling of various influencing factors and the result of the benign coupling of the three subsystems: multi-source pressure, state variation, and management response. HATC security presents a changing trend of “increase-decrease-recovery”. Differences exist in the changes of HATC security status in different spaces and at different time nodes. The findings also indicated that HATCs that appear in the daytime are more stable than HATCs that appear at special time nodes. This study highlighted that the security management of HATCs should focus on systematization, differentiation, and precision management.