Modeling predator and prey hotspots: Management implications of baleen whale co-occurrence with krill in Central California

Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change

Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species' shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, 'spatial match-mismatch' dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator-prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.

Submesoscale coupling of krill and whales revealed by aggregative Lagrangian coherent structures

In the marine environment, dynamic physical processes shape biological productivity and predator-prey interactions across multiple scales. Identifying pathways of physical-biological coupling is fundamental to understand the functioning of marine ecosystems yet it is challenging because the interactions are difficult to measure. We examined submesoscale (less than 100 km) surface current features using remote sensing techniques alongside ship-based surveys of krill and baleen whale distributions in the California Current System. We found that aggregative surface current features, represented by Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) integrated over temporal scales between 2 and 10 days, were associated with increased (a) krill density (up to 2.6 times more dense), (b) baleen whale presence (up to 8.3 times more likely) and (c) subsurface seawater density (at depths up to 10 m). The link between physical oceanography, krill density and krill-predator distributions suggests that LCS are important features that drive the flux of energy and nutrients across trophic levels. Our results may help inform dynamic management strategies aimed at reducing large whales ship strikes and help assess the potential impacts of environmental change on this critical ecosystem.

Multiscale relationships between humpback whales and forage species hotspots within a large marine ecosystem

Fluctuations in prey abundance, composition, and distribution can impact predators, and when predators and fisheries target the same species, predators become essential to ecosystem-based management. Because of the difficulty in collecting concomitant predator-prey data at appropriate scales in patchy environments, few studies have identified strong linkages between cetaceans and prey, especially across large geographic areas. During summer 2018, a line-transect survey for cetaceans and coastal pelagic species was conducted over the continental shelf and slope of British Columbia, Canada, and the US West Coast, allowing for a large-scale investigation of predator-prey spatial relationships. We report on a case study of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and their primary prey-Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and krill-using generalized additive models to explore the relationships between whale abundance on 10-km transect segments and prey metrics. Prey metrics included direct measures of biomass densities on segments and an original hotspot metric. For each prey species, segments in the upper fifth percentile for biomass density (across all segments) were designated hotspots, and whale counts on a segment were evaluated for their relationship to number of hotspot segments (species-specific and multispecies) within 25, 50, or 100 km. Whale abundance was not strongly related to direct measures of biomass densities, whereas models using hotspot metrics were more effective at describing variation in whale abundance, underscoring that evaluating prey at relevant and measurable scales is critical in patchy, dynamic marine environments. Our analysis highlighted differences in the distribution and prey availability for three humpback whale distinct population segments (DPSs) as defined under the US Endangered Species Act, including threatened and endangered DPSs that forage within the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. These linkages provide insights into which prey species whales may be targeting in different regions and across multiple scales and, consequently, how climatic variability and anthropogenic risks may differentially impact these distinct predator-prey assemblages. By identifying scale-appropriate prey hotspots that co-occur with humpback whale aggregations, and with targeted, consistent prey sampling and estimations of potential consumption rates by whales, these findings can help inform the conservation and management of humpback whales within an ecosystem-based management framework.

Oceanographic anomalies coinciding with humpback whale super-group occurrences in the Southern Benguela

Seasonal feeding behaviour of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) has been observed in the coastal waters of the Southern Benguela where the species has been observed forming super-groups during the austral spring in recent years since 2011. Super-groups are unprecedented densely-packed aggregations of between 20 and 200 individuals in low-latitude waters and their occurrences indicate possible changes in feeding behaviour of the species. We accessed published data on super-groups occurrence in the study area in 2011, 2014 and 2015, and investigated oceanographic drivers that support prey availability in this region. We found that enhanced primary production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for super-groups to occur. Positive chlorophyll anomalies occurring one month prior to the super-group occurrences were identified, but only a concurrent significantly reduced water volume export from the region throughout October were conducive to the aggregations in the specific years. Hydrodynamic model results attributed the anomalous decreased volume export to the strength and orientation of the Goodhope Jet and associated eddy activity. The combination of random enhanced primary production typical of the region and emerging anomalous conditions of reduced water export in October since 2011 resulted in favourable food availability leading to the unique humpback whale aggregations. The novelty of this grouping behaviour is indicative of the lack of such oceanographic conditions in the past. Given the recency of the events, it is difficult to attribute this reduction in ocean transport to climatic regime shifts, and the origin should be likely investigated in the distant water mass interaction with the greater Agulhas system rather than in local intensifications of the upwelling conditions. A positive trend in the humpback whale population abundance points to the need to monitor the exposure of the species to the changing climate conditions.

Towards a better characterisation of deep-diving whales' distributions by using prey distribution model outputs?

In habitat modelling, environmental variables are assumed to be proxies of lower trophic levels distribution and by extension, of marine top predator distributions. More proximal variables, such as potential prey fields, could refine relationships between top predator distributions and their environment. In situ data on prey distributions are not available over large spatial scales but, a numerical model, the Spatial Ecosystem And POpulation DYnamics Model (SEAPODYM), provides simulations of the biomass and production of zooplankton and six functional groups of micronekton at the global scale. Here, we explored whether generalised additive models fitted to simulated prey distribution data better predicted deep-diver densities (here beaked whales Ziphiidae and sperm whales Physeter macrocephalus) than models fitted to environmental variables. We assessed whether the combination of environmental and prey distribution data would further improve model fit by comparing their explanatory power. For both taxa, results were suggestive of a preference for habitats associated with topographic features and thermal fronts but also for habitats with an extended euphotic zone and with large prey of the lower mesopelagic layer. For beaked whales, no SEAPODYM variable was selected in the best model that combined the two types of variables, possibly because SEAPODYM does not accurately simulate the organisms on which beaked whales feed on. For sperm whales, the increase model performance was only marginal. SEAPODYM outputs were at best weakly correlated with sightings of deep-diving cetaceans, suggesting SEAPODYM may not accurately predict the prey fields of these taxa. This study was a first investigation and mostly highlighted the importance of the physiographic variables to understand mechanisms that influence the distribution of deep-diving cetaceans. A more systematic use of SEAPODYM could allow to better define the limits of its use and a development of the model that would simulate larger prey beyond 1,000 m would probably better characterise the prey of deep-diving cetaceans.

Factors affecting the seasonal distribution and biomass of E. pacifica and T. spinifera along the Pacific coast of Canada: A spatiotemporal modelling approach

Euphausiids are a keystone species in coastal food webs due to their high lipid content and seasonally high biomass. Understanding the habitat and environmental drivers that lead to areas of high biomass, or ‘hotspots’, and their seasonal persistence, will support the identification of important foraging regions for mid- and upper- trophic level predators. We quantify the distribution of hotspots of the two dominant species of euphausiid in the north-east Pacific Ocean: Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, as well as euphausiid larvae (mixed species). The Canadian coast encompasses the northern California Current Ecosystem and the transition zone to the Alaska current, and is a highly productive region for fisheries, marine mammals, and seabirds. We used spatiotemporal modelling to predict the distribution of these three euphausiid groups in relation to geomorphic and environmental variables during the important spring-summer months (April through September) when euphausiid biomass is highest. We quantified the area, intensity, and persistence of biomass hotspots across months according to specific oceanographic ecosections developed for marine spatial planning purposes. Persistent hotspots of both adult species were predicted to occur along the 200 m depth contour of the continental slope; however, differences were predicted on the shallower Dixon shelf, which was a key area for T. spinifera, and within the Juan de Fuca Eddy system where E. pacifica hotspots occurred. The continental slope along the west coast of Vancouver Island was the only persistent hotspot region common between both adult species and euphausiid larvae. Larval distribution was more correlated with T. spinifera than E. pacifica biomass. Hotspots of adults were more persistent across months than hotspots of euphausiid larvae, which were seasonally patchy. The persistence of biomass hotspots of forage species through periods of low overall biomass could maintain trophic connectivity through perturbation events and increase ecosystem resilience to climate change.

Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model

Defining priority areas and risk evaluation is of utmost relevance for endangered species` conservation. For the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), we aim to assess environmental habitat selection drivers, priority areas for conservation and overlap with vessel traffic off northern Chilean Patagonia (NCP). For this, we implemented a single-step continuous-time correlated-random-walk model which accommodates observational error and movement parameters variation in relation to oceanographic variables. Spatially explicit predictions of whales' behavioral responses were combined with density predictions from previous species distribution models (SDM) and vessel tracking data to estimate the relative probability of vessels encountering whales and identifying areas where interaction is likely to occur. These estimations were conducted independently for the aquaculture, transport, artisanal fishery, and industrial fishery fleets operating in NCP. Blue whale movement patterns strongly agreed with SDM results, reinforcing our knowledge regarding oceanographic habitat selection drivers. By combining movement and density modeling approaches we provide a stronger support for purported priority areas for blue whale conservation and how they overlap with the main vessel traffic corridor in the NCP. The aquaculture fleet was one order of magnitude larger than any other fleet, indicating it could play a decisive role in modulating potential negative vessel-whale interactions within NCP.

Estimating effectiveness of speed reduction measures for decreasing whale-strike mortality in a high-risk region

Recent estimates of blue (Balaenoptera musculus) and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) whale ship-strike deaths on the US west coast are above the Potential Biological Removal limit determined by the National Marine Fisheries Service. Beginning in 2015, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration requested voluntary Vessel Speed Reductions (VSR) in the designated shipping routes off San Francisco, California, USA, in order to decrease whale mortality from ship strikes. We applied a ship strike model based on whale density and Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel data. We bootstrapped speeds from vessels that transited when no VSR was in place to assess the effect of the VSR on strike mortality rates. Finally, we calculated the expected mortality for hypothetical compliance scenarios by programmatically imposing speed caps. Average predicted mortality for the region was 2.7 blue whales and 7.0 humpback whales in a 4 month period. Compared to years prior to the VSR (2012-2014), vessel speeds during the VSR were slower. This lowered blue whale deaths within the shipping lanes by 11-13% and humpback whale deaths by 9-10% in 2016-2017. If 95% of mariners adhered to recommended 10 knot (kn) limits in the shipping lanes alone, we predicted twice as many blue whale and 3 times as many humpback whale deaths would be avoided relative to current adherence. Adding a 10 kn speed limit (with 95% cooperation) at the ends of each of the lanes would result in about 5- and 4-fold reductions in blue whale and humpback whale mortality, respectively, relative to current practices. Our approach can evaluate ship strikes and mitigation measures for whale populations around the globe.