Risk factors of child mortality in Ethiopia: Application of multilevel two-part model

Time to death and its determinants of under-five children in rural Ethiopia by using shared frailty

Under-five (U5M) is one of the most significant and sensitive measures of the community's health. Children who live in rural areas are more likely than those who live in urban areas to die before the age of five. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and its determinants in rural Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study as a secondary source (EMDHS). A total of 4426 weighted under-five children were included in the study. To determine survival time and identify predictors of death among children under the age of five, the Cox's gamma shared frailty model and the Kaplan Meier model, respectively, were used. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were used to measure the size and direction of the association. The Study showed that in rural Ethiopia, 6.03% of children died before celebrating their first birthday. The median age of under-five mortality in rural Ethiopia was estimated to be 29 Months. The hazard of death among under-five children and those who had given birth to two children in the last five years was 4.99 times less likely to be at risk of dying than those who had given birth to one Child in the previous five years (AHR 4.99, 95% CI 2.97, 8.83). The Study Concluded that under-five mortality remained high in rural Ethiopia. In the final model, the Age of Mothers, Sex of Household, Breastfeeding, Types of Birth, Sex of Child, Educational Level of Mothers, Wealth Index, Child ever born, Marital Status, and Water Source were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Twins and children who are not breastfed should receive additional attention, along with improving water resources for households and mothers income.

High Child Mortality and Interventions Coverage in the City of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Are the Poorest Paying an Urban Penalty?

The 'urban penalty' in health refers to the loss of a presumed survival advantage due to adverse consequences of urban life. This study investigated the levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal and under-5 mortality rate and key determinants of child survival using data from Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) (2004/05, 2010 and 2015/16), AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS), Malaria Indicator survey (MIS) and health facility data in Tanzania mainland. We compared Dar es Salaam results with other urban and rural areas in Tanzania mainland, and between the poorest and richest wealth tertiles within Dar es Salaam. Under-5 mortality declined by 41% between TDHS 2004/05 and 2015/2016 from 132 to 78 deaths per 1000 live births, with a greater decline in rural areas compared to Dar es Salaam and other urban areas. Neonatal mortality rate was consistently higher in Dar es Salaam during the same period, with the widest gap (> 50%) between Dar es Salaam and rural areas in TDHS 2015/2016. Coverage of maternal, new-born and child health interventions as well as living conditions were generally better in Dar es Salaam than elsewhere. Within the city, neonatal mortality was 63 and 44 per 1000 live births in the poorest 33% and richest 33%, respectively. The poorest had higher rates of stunting, more overcrowding, inadequate sanitation and lower coverage of institutional deliveries and C-section rate, compared to richest tertile. Children in Dar es Salaam do not have improved survival chances compared to rural children, despite better living conditions and higher coverage of essential health interventions. This urban penalty is higher among children of the poorest households which could only partly be explained by the available indicators of coverage of services and living conditions. Further research is urgently needed to understand the reasons for the urban penalty, including quality of care, health behaviours and environmental conditions.

Predictors of mortality among under-five children in rural Ethiopia: a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

Under-five child mortality (UFCM) is one of the major significant and sensitive indicators of the health status of the public. Although the world has seen a remarkable and substantial decrease in UFCM since 1990, its progression rate still remains alarmingly high in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, particularly in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess associations between mortality and under-five children in rural Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study used a secondary data analysis of the 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) report. A total of 4,425 under-five children were included in the final analysis. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) and Cox proportional hazard (PH) model analyses were utilized to estimate survival time and investigate the major predictors of mortality in under-five children, respectively. An adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) along with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was employed to measure the association size and direction of the association (STATA 12).

RESULTS

The study showed that 6.2% (95% CI: 5.43, 6.86) of children died beforehand celebrating their fifth birthday in rural Ethiopia. The multivariable Cox PH regression model analysis revealed associations of large spacing preceding birth interval (16-26 months) (AHR = 0.61; 95% CI: (0.402-0.920)), 27-38 months (AHR = 0.72; 95% CI: (0.496-1.03)), and ≥ 39 months, multiple births (AHR = 3.9; 95% CI: (2.77-5.62)), being breastfeeding (AHR = 0.13; 95% CI: (0.099-0.162)), and unvaccinated child (AHR = 11.6; 95% CI: (1.62-83.1)) were significant associations of under-five children mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the UFCM rate was present, with 6.2% in the rural areas of Ethiopia. The birth type, preceding birth interval, vaccination of the child, and breastfeeding are identified as significant associations with under-five child mortality in rural Ethiopia. Therefore, public health interventions should be given attention to multiple births, unvaccinated, and non-breastfeeding children, as well as mothers' better encouragement to have a large spacing preceding the birth interval. Moreover, investigators should conduct continuous research on UFCM, which is imperative to provide current information and inform interventions in a timely manner.

Correlates of infant mortality in Benshangul-Gumuz regional State, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Infant mortality is one of the commonest health-related indicators that are used to assess the health status of the society of a nation. Despite the decline in global infant mortality rate, the rate of decline in low-and middle-income countries including Ethiopia is below the rate expected to attain Sustainable Development Goal targets. Benshangul-Gumuz regional state is among the regions in Ethiopia with high infant mortality rate. Therefore, this study aimed at determining the infant mortality rate and identifying risk factors associated with the infant mortality in Benshangul-Gumuz regional state, Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study used data drawn from 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey (2019 EMDHS). Multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors associated with infant mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 530 live births were included in this study. The infant mortality rate in this study was 81 (95% CI: 59, 108) per 1000 live births. Females (AOR: 0.690, 95% CI: 0.342, 0.899), multiple births (AOR: 3.067, 95% CI: 2.313, 10.139), mothers with secondary and higher education (AOR: 0.460, 95% CI: 0.287, 0.885), mothers aged 34 years and older (AOR: 1.539, 95% CI: 1.183, 9.802), mothers having ANC visits (AOR: 0.597, 95% CI: 0.326, 0.709) and health institution delivery (AOR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.0.294, 0.0.899) were significant risk factors associated with infant mortality.

CONCLUSION

Factors sex of child, type of birth, maternal educational status, age of mother, ANC visits and place of delivery were found to be correlates of infant mortality in Benshangul-Gumuz regional state, Ethiopia. Thus, enhancing mothers to have the ANC follow up during pregnancy and deliver at health institution is recommended in the region.

Improving performance of hurdle models using rare-event weighted logistic regression: an application to maternal mortality data

In this paper, performance of hurdle models in rare events data is improved by modifying their binary component. The rare-event weighted logistic regression model is adopted in place of logistic regression to deal with class imbalance due to rare events. Poisson Hurdle Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (REWLR) and Negative Binomial Hurdle (NBH) REWLR are developed as two-part models which use the REWLR model to estimate the probability of a positive count and a Poisson or NB zero-truncated count model to estimate non-zero counts. This research aimed to develop and assess the performance of the Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) Hurdle Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (REWLR) models, applied to simulated data with various degrees of zero inflation and to Nairobi county's maternal mortality data. The study data on maternal mortality were pulled from JPHES. The data contain the number of maternal deaths, which is the outcome variable, and other obstetric and demographic factors recorded in MNCH facilities in Nairobi between October 2021 and January 2022. The models were also fit and evaluated based on simulated data with varying degrees of zero inflation. The obtained results are numerically validated and then discussed from both the mathematical and the maternal mortality perspective. Numerical simulations are also presented to give a more complete representation of the model dynamics. Results obtained suggest that NB Hurdle REWLR is the best performing model for zero inflated count data due to rare events.

Inequalities of Infant Mortality in Ethiopia

(1) Background: Infant mortality is viewed as a core health indicator of overall community health. Although globally child survival has improved significantly over the years, Sub-Saharan Africa is still the region with the highest infant mortality in the world. In Ethiopia, infant mortality is still high, albeit substantial progress has been made in the last few decades. However, there is significant inequalities in infant mortalities in Ethiopia. Understanding the main sources of inequalities in infant mortalities would help identify disadvantaged groups, and develop equity-directed policies. Thus, the purpose of the study was to provide a diagnosis of inequalities of infant mortalities in Ethiopia from four dimensions of inequalities (sex, residence type, mother's education, and household wealth). (2) Methods: Data disaggregated by infant mortalities and infant mortality inequality dimensions (sex, residence type, mother's education, and household wealth) from the WHO Health Equity Monitor Database were used. Data were based on Ethiopia's Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) of 2000 (n = 14,072), 2005 (n = 14,500), 2011 (n = 17,817), and 2016 (n = 16,650) households. We used the WHO Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) software to find estimates of infant mortalities along with inequality measures. (3) Results: Inequalities related to sex, residence type, mother's education, and household wealth still exist; however, differences in infant mortalities arising from residence type, mother's education, and household wealth were narrowing with the exception of sex-related inequality where male infants were markedly at a disadvantage. (4) Conclusions: Although inequalities of infant mortalities related to social groups still exist, there is a substantial sex related infant mortality inequality with disproportional deaths of male infants. Efforts directed at reducing infant mortality in Ethiopia should focus on improving the survival of male infants.

Prevalence and determinants of early neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: findings from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016

BACKGROUND

Early neonatal death accounts for a significant number of under-5 mortality worldwide. However, the problem is under-researched and under-reported in low-income and middle-income countries, particularly in Ethiopia. The magnitude of mortality during the early neonatal period and associated factors should be studied for designing appropriate policies, and strategies that could help tackle the problem. Hence, this study aimed to determine the prevalence and identify factors associated with early neonatal mortality in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study was conducted by using data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016. A total of 10 525 live births were enrolled in the study. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to identify determinants of early neonatal mortality. Adjusted OR (AOR) at a 95% CI was computed to assess the strength and significance of the association between outcome and explanatory variables. Factors with a p<0.05 were declared statistically significant.

RESULTS

The national prevalence of early neonatal mortality in Ethiopia was 41.8 (95% CI 38.1 to 45.8) early neonatal deaths per 1000 live births. The extreme ages of pregnancy (under 20 years (AOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.5) and above 35 years (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.5 to 4)), home delivery (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3 to 4.3), low birth weight (AOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.4 to 8.2) and multiple pregnancies (AOR 5.3, 95% CI 4.1 to 9.9) were significantly associated early neonatal mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed a higher prevalence of early neonatal mortality as compared with prevalence in other low-income and middle-income countries. Thus, it is determined to be essential to design maternal and child health policies and initiatives with a priority on the prevention of early neonatal deaths. Emphasis should be given to babies born to mothers at extreme ages of pregnancy, to those born of multiple pregnancies delivered at home and to low birthweight babies.

Breastfeeding and female labor force participation: the probability of survival of children in Nepal under 3 years old

BACKGROUND

The number of breastfeeding mothers participating in a labor force to generate income has been increasing in Nepal. In this regard, the study aims to assess the survival of Under 3 children in Nepal from the mother based on their labor force participation and breastfeeding status.

METHODS

Data for the study were obtained from the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2016. The sample size of the study was 2,994 live births children, born in the last three years prior to the day of the interview. The robust hazard ratio and cox proportional hazard regression were conducted between dependent and independent variables with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to conclude.

RESULTS

From a total of 2,994 live births, 85 children died within 36 months of birth. More than 80% of the non-working mothers were breastfeeding their children. The findings shows that the survival of children under-3 is positively associated with the interaction with the mother's work and breastfeeding status (Hazard Ratio 0.428, 95% CI 0.24, 0.75), family structure (Hazard Ratio 1.511; 95% CI 1.37, 1.655), relationship with the household head (Hazard Ratio 0.452; 95% CI 0.311, 0.65), wealth quintiles (Hazard Ratio 0.390; 95% CI 0.33, 0.46), caste (Hazard Ratio 0.652; 95% CI 0.60, 0.69), and religion (Hazard Ratio 2.015; 95% CI 1.09, 3.70) with model CI 95%, Log pseudo likelihood = -521.39236, prob. χ2 = 0.005 and time at risk = 52,748.

CONCLUSIONS

The highest rate of child survival was from the working mothers as well as continuing breastfeeding their children followed by mothers breastfeeding the child but not working, compared to mothers working but not breastfeeding the child, and mothers who were neither working nor breastfeeding their children respectively. This study provides clear evidence that breastfeeding is very important for the probability of survival of the child aged below 36 months and work of mother also have some positive impact on child survival. Employers should be encouraged to have a breastfeeding policy in the workplace through the establishment of a breastfeeding facility, and a flexible work schedule. At the same time government should also regulate the paid maternity leave and encourage societal support for the breastfeeding mothers.

A Systematic Review of Factors Associated with Under-Five Child Mortality

BACKGROUND

Preventing the life of the newborn and reducing the entrenched disparity of childhood mortality across different levels is one of the crucial public health problems, especially in underdeveloped and developing countries in the world. Sustainable development goals (SDGs)-3.2 is aimed at terminating all preventable under-five child mortality and shrinking it to 25 per 1000 live births or lower than this by 2030. Several factors have been shown to be linked with childhood mortality.

OBJECTIVE

This review is aimed at pointing out the significant determinants related to under-five child mortality by a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

EMBASE, PubMed, Scopus database, and Google Scholar search engine were used for the systematic search of the literature. Special keywords and Boolean operators were used to point out the relevant studies for the review. Original research articles and peer-reviewed papers published in the English language till August 10, 2022, were included in the analysis and synthesis of the results. As per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, out of 299 studies identified from different sources, only 22 articles were ascertained for this study. Eligible articles were appraised in detail, and relevant information was extracted and then integrated into the systematic review.

RESULTS

Mother's education, size of child at birth, age of mother at childbirth, place of residence, birth interval, sex of child, type of birth (single or multiple), and birth order, along with other socioeconomic, maternal, child, health facility utilization, and community level variables, were observed as important covariates of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Women's education and easy access to quality healthcare facilities should be the apex priority to lessen childhood mortality.

Community and individual level determinants of infant mortality in rural Ethiopia using data from 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey

The infant mortality rate remains unacceptably high in sub-Saharan African countries. Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of infant death. This study aimed to identify individual-and community-level factors associated with infant death in the rural part of Ethiopia. The data for the study was obtained from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 8667 newborn children were included in the analysis. The multilevel logistic regression model was considered to identify the individual and community-level factors associated with new born mortality. The random effect model found that 87.68% of the variation in infant mortality was accounted for by individual and community level variables. Multiple births (AOR = 4.35; 95%CI: 2.18, 8.69), small birth size (AOR = 1.29; 95%CI: 1.10, 1.52), unvaccinated infants (AOR = 2.03; 95%CI: 1.75, 2.37), unprotected source of water (AOR = 1.40; 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80), and non-latrine facilities (AOR = 1.62; 95%CI: 1.20) were associated with a higher risk of infant mortality. While delivery in a health facility (AOR = 0.25; 95%CI: 0.19, 0.32), maternal age 35–49 years (AOR = 0.65; 95%CI: 0.49, 0.86), mothers receiving four or more TT injections during pregnancy (AOR = 0.043, 95% CI: 0.026, 0.071), and current breast feeders (AOR = 0.33; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.42) were associated with a lower risk of infant mortality. Furthermore, Infant mortality rates were also higher in Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somalia, and Harari than in Tigray. Infant mortality in rural Ethiopia is higher than the national average. The government and other concerned bodies should mainly focus on multiple births, unimproved breastfeeding culture, and the spacing between the orders of birth to reduce infant mortality. Furthermore, community-based outreach activities and public health interventions focused on improving the latrine facility and source of drinking water as well as the importance of health facility delivery and received TT injections during the pregnancy.

Risk factors of mortality among children under age five in Awi Zone, northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Globally, under-five mortality rates have dropped, but in Ethiopia, the under-five mortality rate is still high. In Amhara region, the death of children under the age of five is still a public health problem. This study assessed the risk factors of mortality among children under age five in Awi Zone.

METHOD

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from December 1, 2020, up to April 30, 2021. Data entry and analysis were conducted using SPSS version 26 and Stata version 16, respectively. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model was fitted to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality.

RESULT

Out of the 1,340 mothers in the Awi zone, 11.9% of women lost at least one child. Single births (IRR = 0.598, 95% CI: 0.395, 0.906), fathers whose level of education is secondary or above(IRR = 0.223, 95% CI: 0.064, 0.782), mothers who completed their secondary and above education level(IRR = 0.116, 95% CI: 0.014, 0.971), mothers who have birth interval greater than 24 months (IRR = 0.619,95% CI: 0.417, 0.917), 8 and above family size the households (IRR = 0.543, 95% CI: 0.302, 0.976), 31 and above mother age groups (IRR = 0.296, 95% CI: 0.093, 0.943), medium households of mothers (IRR = 0.540, 95% CI: 0.316, 0.920), working mothers (IRR = 1.691, 95% CI: 1.040, 2.748) and mothers who had not antenatal visits during pregnancy (IRR = 2.060, 95% CI: 1.259, 3.371) were significant factors of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Mother's age group, preceding birth interval, family size, wealth index, duration of pregnancy, antenatal visits during pregnancy, types of birth, mother's education level, husband's education level, and place of delivery were significant factors of under-five mortality in Awi zone. So, Awi zone public health institute, Awi zone children's and youth office, and other relevant bodies should work to reduce under-five mortality by focusing on child mortality issues.

Factors associated with post-neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: Using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey

Background

Post-neonatal mortality is the number of deaths of infants aged 28 days through 11 months and is expressed as post-neonatal deaths per 1000 live births per year. This study aimed to identify the factors that influence post-neonatal death using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey (EMDHS2019).

Methods

The study included 2126 post neonates born from mothers who had been interviewed about births in the five years before the survey. The survey gathering period was carried out from March 21, 2019, to June 28, 2019. The data were first analyzed with a chi-square test of association, and then relevant factors were evaluated with binary logistic regression models and the results were interpreted using adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and confidence interval(CI) of parameters.

Results

The prevalence of post neonatal death was 16% (95% CI: 15.46, 17.78). The study also showed that not vaccinated post-neonates (AOR = 2.325, 95% CI: 1.784, 3.029), mothers who were not receiving any tetanus injection (AOR = 2.891, 95% CI: 2.254, 3.708), mothers age group 15-24(AOR = 1.836, 95% CI: 1.168, 2.886), Afar (AOR = 2.868, 95% CI: 1.264, 6.506), Somali(AOR = 2.273, 95% CI: 1.029, 5.020), Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region(SNNP) (AOR = 2.619, 95% CI: 1.096, 6.257), 2–4 birth orders (AOR = 1.936, 95% CI: 1.225, 3.060), not attend antenatal care(ANC) visit (AOR = 6.491, 95% CI: 3.928, 10.726), and preceding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 1.755, 95% CI: 1.363,2.261) statistically associated with a higher risk of post neonatal death. Although not given anything other than breast milk (AOR = 0.604, 95% CI 0.462, 0.789), urban residents (AOR = 0.545, 95% CI: 0.338, 0.877), single births (AOR = 0.150, 95% CI: 0.096, 0.234), less than 3 children in a family (AOR = 0.665, 95% CI 0.470, 0.939) and the head of the male household (AOR = 0.442, 95% CI: 0.270, 0.724) were statistically associated with a lower risk of post-neonatal mortality.

Conclusions

It is highly suggested that maternal and child health care services (including antenatal care visits, postnatal care visits, and immunization) be strengthened and monitored during the early stages of infancy. Mothers from Somali, Afar, and SNNP regions, as well as multiple births, rural residents, and those giving birth to a child with a birth gap of fewer than 24 months, demand special care.

Multilevel log linear model to estimate the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia: further analysis of 2016 EDHS

Background

Infant mortality is defined as the death of a child at any time after birth and before the child’s first birthday. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest infant and child mortality rate in the world. Infant and child mortality rates are higher in Ethiopia. A study was carried out to estimate the risk factors that affect infant mortality in Ethiopia.

Method

The EDHS− 2016 data set was used for this study. A total of 10,547 mothers from 11 regions were included in the study’s findings. To estimate the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia, several count models (Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Infated Poisson, Zero-Infated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial) were considered.

Result

The average number of infant deaths was 0.526, with a variance of 0.994, indicating over-dispersion. The highest mean number of infant death occurred in Somali (0.69) and the lowest in Addis Ababa (0.089). Among the multilevel log linear models, the ZINB regression model with deviance (17,868.74), AIC (17,938.74), and BIC (1892.97) are chosen as the best model for estimating the risk factors affecting infant mortality in Ethiopia. However, the results of a multilevel ZINB model with a random intercept and slope model revealed that residence, mother’s age, household size, mother’s age at first birth, breast feeding, child weight, contraceptive use, birth order, wealth index, father education level, and birth interval are associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia.

Conclusion

Infant deaths remains high and infant deaths per mother differ across regions. An optimal fit was found to the data based on a multilevel ZINB model. We suggest fitting the ZINB model to count data with excess zeros originating from unknown sources such as infant mortality.

Trend and correlates of under-5 mortality in Ethiopia: A multilevel model comparison of 2000-2016 EDHS data

Objectives:

The main objectives of this article were to answer (1) what is the trend of under-5 mortality from 2000 to 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey? (2) What are the correlates that contribute to under-5 mortality in Ethiopia?

Methods:

The data used in this study were obtained from 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. We used multivariable three-level logistic regression model to predict under-5 mortality, with sex of a child, preceding birth interval, birth order, place of delivery, weight of child at birth, and plurality as first-level variables; mother’s education level, wealth index, mother’s age at first birth, and sex of household head as second-level variables; and residence and survey time as third-level variables.

Results:

The under-5 mortality declined from 166 deaths per 1000 live birth in 2000 to 67 deaths per 1000 live births in 2016. The odds of under-5 mortality among children with rural residence were 2.81 times greater than among children with urban residence. Moreover, the odds of under-5 mortality were higher among mothers who gave birth with preceding birth intervals of less than 24 months. A child whose preceding birth interval was less than 24 months had a 0.235, 0.174, 0.143, and 0.107 predicted probability of dying in the years 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016, respectively.

Conclusion:

Child mortality varied across time in Ethiopia. Understanding both the time-varying nature of the correlates and changes in the type of their associations can help to explain some of the decreases in child mortality rates. Direction and/or presence of a relationship between these correlates and child mortality significantly interacted with time. Therefore, to mitigate the burden of under-5 mortality, the concerned body should provide awareness to the community.

Effect of health extension service on under-five child mortality and determinants of under-five child mortality in Derra district, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

Objectives:

Under-five child mortality is the highest in Ethiopia even though it decreased steadily in the last two decades. Hence, this study aimed to identify the risk factors and effects of Health Extension Service on under-five child mortality per mother in Derra district, Ethiopia.

Methods:

The study used a three-stage sampling technique and a random sample of 446 mothers. Cross-sectional data were collected using a structured interview and analyzed using descriptive and inferential (propensity score and Poisson regression) analysis.

Results:

One-fourth (23.5%) of mothers experienced at least one under-five child mortality in the last 13 years and the propensity score analysis also indicated that utilizing and model in the Health Extension program reduced under-five child mortality per mother by 29.84% and 15.71%, respectively. The Poisson regression model identified that kebeles, not utilized health extension program (incidence rate ratio 2.25, 95% confidence interval (1.33, 3.85)), not model in health extension program (incidence rate ratio 1.79, 95% confidence interval (1.07, 3.18)), primary educational level (incidence rate ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval (0.18, 0.91)), mother aged at first birth less than 20 years (incidence rate ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval (1.90, 3.05)), source of drinking water not pipped (incidence rate ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval (1.20, 3.18)), and child delivered at home (incidence rate ratio 2.48, 95% confidence interval (1.26, 4.8)) significantly influence under-five child mortality per mother at 5% level of significance.

Conclusion:

Health extension service utilization reduced under-five child mortality per mother, and education level, source of drinking water, place of child delivery, and place of residence (kebele) were significant risk factors for under-five child mortality per mother. The health sectors and district health offices should work on health extension program to increase the community awareness of basic preventive and promotive health services and minimize risk factors of under-five child mortality.

Determinants of under-five mortality in Ethiopia using the recent 2019 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data: nested shared frailty survival analysis

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, there is remarkable progress in child survival in the past three decades. Ethiopia is off-track on sustainable development targets in under-five mortality since 2020. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate time to death and its associated factors among under-five children in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Nationally representative demographic and health survey data were used for this study. A total of 5772 under-five children were included. Data were analyzed using R software. Semi-parametric nested shared frailty survival analysis was employed to identify factors affecting under-five mortality. Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence interval (CI) was reported and log-likelihood was used for model comparison. Statistical significance was declared at P-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The weighted incidence of under-five death before celebrating the first fifth year was 5.76% (95% CI: 5.17 - 6.40). Female sex and under-five children living in urban areas were high probability of survival than their counterparts. After controlling cluster and region level frailty, multiple births (AHR = 7.03, 95% CI: 4.40-11.24), breastfed within one hour after birth (AHR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.28-0.61), preceding birth interval 18-23 months (AHR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.12 -2.36), and under-five children younger than 18 months (AHR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.93 -3.86), and teenage pregnancy (AHR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.01-2.87) were statistically significant factors for time to under-five death.

CONCLUSION

Even though Ethiopia has a significant decline under-five death, still a significant number of under-five children were dying. Early initiation of breastfeeding, preceding birth interval and teenage pregnancy were the preventable factors of under-five mortality. To curve and achieve the SDG targets regarding under-five mortality in Ethiopia, policymakers and health planners should give prior attention to preventable factors for under-five mortality.

Time to under-five mortality and its predictors in rural Ethiopia: Cox-gamma shared frailty model

Background

Under-five mortality (U5M) is one of the most important and sensitive indicators of the health status of the community. Despite there having been a substantial reduction in U5M since 1990, its rate is still high in Sub-Saharan African countries. Thus, this study aimed to assess time to under-five mortality and its predictors in rural Ethiopia.

Methods

This study utilized a secondary analysis of the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A total of 9,807 weighted under-five children selected at different stages were included in the analysis. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s-gamma shared frailty models were used to estimate survival time and to identify predictors of under-five mortality, respectively. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to measure the effect size and direction of the association.

Results

The study indicated that 6.69% (95% CI: 6.13, 7.30) of children died before celebrating their fifth birthday in rural Ethiopia. Of all the deaths, the median time to death was 27 months. After controlling the effect of cluster and other confounding factors, female sex (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.75), ever born greater than five children (AHR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.83), very large size at birth (AHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.03 1.71), very small size at birth (AHR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.82), twin pregnancy (AHR = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.47, 4.88), not ever breastfeeding (AHR = 11.29, 95% CI: 9.03, 14.12), unimproved latrine (AHR = 3.44, 95% CI: 1.91, 6.17), covered by health insurance (AHR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.70) were predictors of under-five mortality.

Conclusions

Still under-five mortality was high in rural Ethiopia as compared to the global under-five mortality rate. In the final model, sex of a child, the total number of children ever born, children’s size at birth, type of pregnancy, breastfeeding, type of toilet, and being covered by health insurance were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Further emphasis should be given to twin and not breastfeeding children, as well as households’ better encouraging membership of community health insurance and utilization of improved latrines.

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

Uncertainties in the path to 2030: Increasing trends of under-five mortality in the aftermath of Millennium Development Goal in Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Although Ethiopia was applauded for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing child mortality, whether the gains sustained beyond the MDG era was rarely studied. In this study, we reported the trends and determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) from 2015 to 2020 in a population based cohort under the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

We followed pregnant women and their pregnancy outcomes from 2015 to 2020. Each year, data related to death and live births among the follow up population was retrieved. Automated verbal autopsy (InterVA-4) was used to assign the cause of death and Stata 14 was used for analysis. U5M rate was calculated as death among under five children divided by all live births during the study period and described per 1000 live births along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). A multivariable Cox proportional regression model was used to identify determinant of U5M using adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Finally, P value <0.05 was considered for declaring statistically significant association.

Results

From January 2015 to December 2020, a total of 28 870 live births were registered under the Kersa HDSS, of whom 1335 died before their fifth birthday. The overall U5M rate was 46.3 per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval (CI) = 43.79-48.79), with significant increase from 27.9 in 2015 to 54.7 in 2020 (P < 0.041). Diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory tract infection including pneumonia, meningitis and encephalitis, and HIV related deaths were the leading causes of U5M. The hazard of death was higher among children born to poor household (AHR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.27-1.81), rural residents (AHR = 6.0; 95% CI = 3.65-9.91), born to adolescent mothers (AHR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.02-1.95), whose mother didn’t receive antenatal care (AHR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.21-1.69), were born preterm (AHR = 14.1; 95% CI = 9.96-19.89) and had low birth-weight (AHR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.39-2.18).

Conclusion

We found high level of U5M rate with an increasing trend in the aftermath of the praised MDG4 achievement. Achieving the ambitious U5M of 25 per 1000 live births by 2030 requires addressing diarrheal disease, and respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS. Reasons behind the persistent increase over the study period require further inquiry.

Under-5 Mortality and Its Associated Factors in Northern Nigeria: Evidence from 22,455 Singleton Live Births (2013-2018)

The northern geopolitical zones (NGZs) continue to report the highest under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) among Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. This study was designed to identify factors related to under-5 mortality (U5M) in the NGZs. The NGZ populations extracted from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey were explored to assess the factors associated with U5M using logistic regression, generalised linear latent, and mixed models. Between 2013 and 2018, the northwest geopolitical zone reported the highest U5MR (179 deaths per 1000 live births; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 163-194). The adjusted model showed that geopolitical zone, poor household, paternal occupation, perceived children's body size at birth, caesarean delivery, and mothers and fathers' education were highly associated with increased odds of U5M. Other significant factors that influenced U5M included children of fourth or higher birth order with shorter interval ≤ 2 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.68; CI: 1.42-1.90) and mothers who did not use contraceptives (aOR = 1.41, CI: 1.13-1.70). Interventions are needed and should primarily spotlight children residing in low-socioeconomic households. Educating mothers on the benefits of contraceptive use, child spacing, timely and safe caesarean delivery and adequate care for small-sized babies may also reduce U5M in Nigeria, particularly in the NGZs.

Impact of high-risk fertility behaviours on underfive mortality in Asia and Africa: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys

Background

Maternal age < 18 or > 34 years, short inter-pregnancy birth interval, and higher birth order are considered to be high-risk fertility behaviours (HRFB). Underfive mortality being disproportionately concentrated in Asia and Africa, this study analyses the association between HRFB and underfive mortality in selected Asian and African countries.

Methods

This study used Integrated Public Microdata Series-Demographic and Health Surveys (IPUMS-DHS) data from 32 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East, North Africa and South Asia from 1986 to 2017 (N = 1,467,728). Previous evidence hints at four markers of HRFB: women’s age at birth of index child < 18 or > 34 years, preceding birth interval < 24 months and child’s birth order > 3. Using logistic regression, we analysed change in the odds of underfive mortality as a result of i) exposure to HRFB individually, ii) exposure to any single HRFB risk factor, iii) exposure to multiple HRFB risk factors, and iv) exposure to specific combinations of HRFB risk factors.

Results

Mother’s age at birth of index child < 18 years and preceding birth interval (PBI) < 24 months were significant risk factors of underfive mortality, while a child’s birth order > 3 was a protective factor. Presence of any single HRFB was associated with 7% higher risk of underfive mortality (OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.04–1.09). Presence of multiple HRFBs was associated with 39% higher risk of underfive mortality (OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.36–1.43). Some specific combinations of HRFB such as maternal age < 18 years and preceding birth interval < 24 month significantly increased the odds of underfive mortality (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.88–2.28).

Conclusion

Maternal age < 18 years and short preceding birth interval significantly increase the risk of underfive mortality. This highlights the need for an effective legislation to curb child marriages and increased public investment in reproductive healthcare with a focus on higher contraceptive use for optimal birth spacing.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-021-03780-y.

Individual and community-level determinants of childhood vaccination in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Vaccines are one of our most important tools for preventing outbreaks and keeping the world safe. Most unvaccinated children live in the poorest countries including Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the determinants of vaccination coverage among children aged12-23 months in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional secondary data were obtained from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data (EDHS). A total of 1929 children were included. A Multilevel Proportional Odds Model was used to identify the individual and community-level factors associated with child vaccination.

RESULT

Among 1, 929 children, only 48.6% (95% CI: 46.3 to 50.8%) were fully vaccinated while 37.8% (95% CI: 35.7 to 40.1%) were partially vaccinated.. The multilevel ordinal logistic regression model reveled that housewife mother (AOR =1.522, 95%CI: 1.139, 2.034), institutional delivery (AOR =2.345, 95%CI: 1.766, 3.114),four or above antenatal care visits (AOR = 2.657; 95% CI: 1.906, 3.704), children of mothers with secondary or higher education (AOR = 2.008; 95% CI: 1.209, 3.334),Children whose fathers primary education (AOR = 1.596; 95% CI: 1.215, 2.096), from the rich households (AOR = 1.679; 95% CI: 1.233, 2.287) were significantly associated with childhood vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Child vaccination coverage in Ethiopia remains low. Therefore, there is a need to increase child vaccination coverage by promoting institutional delivery and prenatal care visits, as well as maternal tetanus immunization. Besides, public initiatives needed to improve child vaccination coverage, women's and husband's education, poor women, and further advancement of health care services for poor women, housewife women, women living in remote areas should be made to maintain further improvements in child vaccination. Furthermore, policies and programs aimed at addressing cluster variations in child vaccination need to be formulated and their implementation must be strongly pursued.

Magnitude of antenatal care service uptake and associated factors among pregnant women: analysis of the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey

Objective

Antenatal and postnatal cares are crucial for the survival and well-being of both the mother and the child. WHO recommends a minimum of four antenatal care (ANC) visits during a pregnancy. In Ethiopia, only 38% of women in the reproductive age make a minimum of first ANC visits. This value is far below the typical rates of least developed countries. This study aimed to calculate the magnitude and identify associated factors of ANC service utilisation among pregnant women in Ethiopia.

Design

Cross-sectional study design.

Setting

Ethiopia.

Participants

A total of 7913 pregnant women participated in the study.

Primary outcome measures

Antenatal care service uptake among pregnant women.

Result

Only 35.5% of the pregnant mothers have used ANC services at least four times and 64.5% of the pregnant mothers have used less than three times during their periods of pregnancy. The study showed that rich women (PR=1.077, 95% CI: 1.029 to 1.127), having access to mass media (PR=1.086, 95% CI: 1.045 to 1.128), having pregnancy complications (PR=1.203, 95% CI: 1.165 to 1.242), secondary education and above (PR=1.112, 95% CI:1.052 to 1.176), husbands’ having secondary education and above (PR=1.085, 95% CI: 1.031 to 1.142) and married (PR=1.187; 95% CI: 1.087 to 1.296), rural women (PR=0.884, 95% CI: 0.846 to 0.924) and women>30 years of age (PR=1.067, 95% CI: 1.024 to 1.111) significantly associated with the ANC service uptake.

Conclusion

The magnitude of ANC service uptake was low. This low magnitude of ANC service utilisation calls for a need to improve community awareness about maternal health. More importantly, intensive health education is required for pregnant women to have better ANC service uptake and follow-up adherence.

Newborns and Under-5 Mortality in Ethiopia: The Necessity to Revitalize Partnership in Post-COVID-19 Era to Meet the SDG Targets

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted during the United Nations meeting in 2015 to succeed Millennium Development Goals. Among the health targets, SDG 3.2 is to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age by 2030. These 2 targets aim to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1000 live births and under-5 mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1000 live births. Ethiopia is demonstrating a great reduction in child mortality since 2000. In the 2019 child mortality estimation which is nearly 5 years after SDGs adoption, Ethiopia's progress toward reducing the newborns and under-5 mortality lie at 27 and 50.7 per 1000 live births, respectively. The generous financial and technical support from the global partners have helped to achieve such a significant reduction. Nevertheless, the SDG targets for newborns and under-5 mortality reduction are neither attained yet nor met the national plan to achieve by the end of 2019/2020. The partnership dynamics during COVID-19 crisis and the pandemic itself may also be taken as an opportunity to draw lessons and spur efforts to achieve SDG targets. This urges the need to reaffirm a comprehensive partnership and realignment with other interconnected development goals. Therefore, collective efforts with strong partnerships are required to improve the determinants of child health and achieving SDG target reduction until 2030.

Risk factor of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: multilevel analysis of 2016 Demographic and Health Survey

Background

In sub-Saharan African countries, neonatal mortality rates remain unacceptably high. Ethiopia is one of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest death rates of newborn children. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in Ethiopia at the individual and community level.

Methods

The 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data was accessed and used for the analysis. A total of 2449 newborn children were included in the analysis. The multilevel logistic regression model was used to identify the significant factor of neonatal mortality. Adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05 in the multilevel model was reported.

Results

A total of 2449 newborn children were included in this study. Multiple birth type (AOR = 3.18; 95% CI 2.78, 3.63), birth order of ≥ 5 (AOR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.75, 2.64), pre-term birth (AOR = 5.97; 95% CI 4.96, 7.20), no antenatal care (ANC) visit during pregnancy (AOR = 2.33; 95% CI 2.09, 2.61), not received TT injection during pregnancy (AOR = 2.28; 95% CI 1.92, 2.71), delivered at home (AOR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.48, 2.69), less than 24 months of preceding birth interval (AOR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.35,1.68), smaller birth size (AOR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.46, 1.71), never breastfeeding (AOR = 2.43; 95% CI 2.17, 2.72), poor wealth index (AOR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.17,1.41), non-educated mothers (AOR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.46, 1.71), non-educated fathers (AOR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.12, 1.54), rural residence (AOR = 2.71; 95% CI 2.23, 3.29), unprotected water source (AOR = 1.35; 95% CI 1.16, 1.58), and have no latrine facility (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50, 2.12) were associated with a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Neonates living in Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Harari, and Dire Dawa had a higher risk of neonatal mortality compared to Tigray. Moreover, the random effects result showed that about 85.57% of the variation in neonatal mortality was explained by individual- and community-level factors.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that attention be paid to education-based programs for mothers that would highlight the benefits of delivery care services, such as ANC visits, TT injections, and facility births. Meanwhile, public health initiatives should focus on expanding access to quality sanitation facilities, especially for latrines and drinking water that could improve neonatal health at the community-level as a whole.