Time to recovery and predictors of severe community-acquired pneumonia among pediatric patients in Debre Markos referral hospital, North West Ethiopia: A retrospective follow-up study

Time to recovery from severe community-acquired pneumonia and its predictors among 6 to 59 months of age children admitted to South Wollo zone public hospitals, North East Ethiopia: a prospective follow-up study

INTRODUCTION

Ethiopia is one of those countries with higher burden of community acquired pneumonia among its people, under five children are the members of society that are highly affected by pneumonia particularly Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia. However, there are limited studies on time to recovery and its predictors in under-five children and most of them are retrospective which fails to address important variables that affect the time to recovery. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the median time to recovery and its predictors among under five children admitted to South Wollo zone public hospitals, North East Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based prospective cohort study was conducted from March 10 to May 10, 2021, with 270 study subjects. A systematic random sampling technique was used. Data was collected by interview and chart review. The data were entered and analyzed using Epi Data version 3.1 and STATA version 14.0, respectively. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to test the time and predictors of recovery from severe community-acquired pneumonia.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of recovery rate (95% confidence interval) from Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia was 20.45(17.84-23.46) per 100 person days observation with median (IQR) time to recovery of [3, 5] days. The predictors of time to recovery from Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia were having comorbidities on admission [AHR = 0.49 (95%CI: 0.32,0.75)], reaching hospitals after 5 days of onset of symptoms [AHR = 0.35 (95%CI: 0.20,0.60)], having Middle Upper Arm Circumference < = 12.5 cm [AHR = 0.21 (95%CI: 0.12,0.37)], the presence of smoker in the house [AHR = 0.21 (95%CI: 0.10,0.42)] and being not fully immunized for age [AHR = 0.35 (95%CI: 0.24,0.53)].

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Generally the recovery time of children with Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia in the study area was within the recommended national standards. Due attention should be given to children with the identified predictors while treating them.

Time to recovery and its predictors among under-five children admitted with severe pneumonia in East Wallaga Zone public hospitals, western Ethiopia, 2023; a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Globally, pneumonia is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality as well as hospitalization burden for under-five children. Despite significant initiatives implemented to reduce morbidity and mortality from pneumonia in under-five children, little is known regarding the time to recovery and its predictors among under-five children admitted with severe pneumonia in Ethiopia. Hence, this study intended to estimate the median time to recovery and its predictors among under-five children admitted with severe pneumonia in East Wallaga zone public hospitals, western Ethiopia; 2023.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 383 under-five children who were admitted with severe pneumonia in East Wallaga zone public hospitals from January 2017 to December 2022. A systematic sampling method was used to select eligible medical records. EpiData Version 4.6 was used to enter the data and analyzed using STATA Version 17.0. Cox-proportional hazard assumption test and model fitness were checked. Variables with P-value ˂ 0.25 at bivariable Cox regression analysis were selected for the multivariable Cox proportional model. A multivariable Cox regression model with 95% CI and Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) was used to identify a significant predictor of time to recovery from severe pneumonia at a P-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

At the end of the follow-up, 356 observations were developed an event (recovered) with the median time to recovery of 4 days with IQR of 3-5 days. The overall incidence rate of recovery was 22.26 per 100 (95% CI: 20.07-24.70) person-days observations. Being rural residency (AHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.60-0.93), late presenters for seeking care (AHR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.53-0.93), presence of danger sign at admission (AHR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.15-1.83), and presence of comorbidity (AHR = 1.63, 95% CI, 1.31-2.04) were found to have a statistically significant association with prolonged recovery time.

CONCLUSION

The median time to recovery from severe pneumonia was long, and factors such as Residence, co-morbidity, presence of danger signs, and duration prior to seeking care were statistically significant predictors of recovery time from severe pneumonia. Hence, due attention has to be given to increasing the community's health-seeking behavior to visit health facility early and especial attention should be given for children with danger signs and comorbidity.

Recovery Time From Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia and Risk Factors Among Pediatrics, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Introduction. Severe community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a life-threatening condition, with high rates of morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to determine the recovery time from severe CAP and risk factors among pediatric patients. Methods. A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 412 pediatric medical charts with severe CAP enrolled at Asella Referral and Teaching Hospital between January 01, 2021 and December 31, 2022. EpiData version 4.6.0.6 and STATA version 14.2 were used for data entry and statistical analysis, respectively. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyzes were performed. Result. The median recovery time from severe CAP among pediatric patients was 5 days (IQR = 3-8 days). IDR of recovery from severe CAP was 13.089 per 100 [95%CI: 11.82, 14.49] pediatric days observations. The cumulative incidence of recovery from severe CAP was 89.56% [n = 369, 95%CI: 86.20, 92.18]. Age [AHR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.12, 2.13, P = .007], vaccination status [AHR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.03, 1.63, P = .027], presence of danger signs [AHR = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.26, 2.05, P = .000], presence of comorbidity [AHR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.33, 2.10, P = .000], duration of seeking care [AHR = 1.71, 95%CI: 1.18, 2.47, P = .004], and oxygen therapy [AHR = 1.45, 95%CI:1.12, 1.87, P = .004] were statistically significant risk factors for recovery time from severe CAP. Conclusions. The median recovery time of patients with severe CAP is relatively high. Age, vaccination status, presence of danger signs, presence of comorbidities, duration of seeking care, and oxygen therapy were statistically significant risk factors of recovery time from severe CAP.

Predictors of recovery time from severe community-acquired pneumonia among paediatrics patients in selected hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: an institution-based retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) is a significant cause of morbidity worldwide and a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Ethiopia ranks 6th out of 15 countries with the highest mortality rate due to pneumonia in children under 5 years of age. The aim of this study was to determine the recovery time from SCAP and factors in paediatric patients in selected hospitals in Addis Ababa.

DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 407 randomly selected paediatric patients admitted with SCAP in Addis Ababa public hospitals from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Recovery time and recovery rate from SCAP were estimated using Kaplan-Meier and simple frequency statistics, respectively, and the adjusted HR with a 95% CI was used to identify associated factors for recovery.

RESULTS

91.5% (95% CI: 88.3% to 94.1%) of children recovered from SCAP with an overall recovery rate of 11.5 (95% CI: 10.37 to 12.76) per 100 person-day observation, and the median recovery time was 6 days. In the multivariable analysis, older age and the absence of comorbidities were protective factors for early recovery, while stunting and late utilisation of medical care were risk factors.

CONCLUSION

The median recovery time after SCAP was very long compared with the optimal recovery time of 3 days given in the British Thoracic Society guidelines. Older age and absence of comorbidities were found to shorten recovery time, whereas stunting and late initiation of treatment delayed recovery. Therefore, measures that increase the recovery rate and shorten the recovery time, such as primary prevention to eliminate malnutrition and increase the utilisation of medical care in the community, should be strengthened, and health workers should focus on the early detection and treatment of comorbid diseases.

Joint modeling of longitudinal changes of pulse rate and body temperature with time to recovery of pneumonia patients under treatment: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality worldwide and one of the most common lower respiratory tract infections that is contributing significantly to the burden of antibiotic consumption. The study aims to identify the determinants of the progress of pulse rate, body temperature and time to recovery of pneumonia patients.

METHOD

A prospective cohort study design was used from Felege Hiwot referral hospital on 214 sampled pneumonia patients from March 01, 2022 up to May 31, 2022. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimate and Log-Rank test was used to compare the survival time. Joint model of bivariate longitudinal and time to event model was used to identify factors of longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature with time to recovery jointly.

RESULT

As the follow up time of pneumonia patient's increase by one hour the average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature were decreased by 0.4236 bpm and 0.0119 [Formula: see text]. The average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature of patients who lived in rural was 1.4602 bpm and 0.1550 [Formula: see text] times less as compared to urban residence. Patients who had dangerous signs are significantly increased the average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature by 2.042 bpm and 0.6031 [Formula: see text] as compared to patients who had no dangerous signs. A patient from rural residence was 1.1336 times more likely to experience the event of recovery as compared to urban residence. The estimated values of the association parameter for pulse rate and body temperature were -0.4236 bpm and -0.0119 respectively, which means pulse rate and body temperature were negatively related with patients recovery time.

CONCLUSION

Pulse rate and body temperature significantly affect the time to the first recovery of pneumonia patients who are receiving treatment. Age, residence, danger sign, comorbidity, baseline symptom and visiting time were the joint determinant factors for the longitudinal change of pulse rate, body temperature and time to recovery of pneumonia patients. The joint model approach provides precise dynamic predictions, widespread information about the disease transitions, and better knowledge of disease etiology.

Predictors of prolonged hospitalization among children aged 2-59 months with severe community-acquired pneumonia in public hospitals of Benishangul-Gumuz Region, Ethiopia: a multicenter retrospective follow-up study

Background

Pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children aged under 5 years in Ethiopia. Prolonged hospitalization of severe community-acquired pneumonia is a significant problem in resource-limited countries. This study seeks to provide insights that can help improve the management and outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia, which is particularly important in the context of the Benishangul-Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, where access to quality healthcare services is limited, and childhood pneumonia is a significant health challenge.

Objective

The aim of the study was to determine the predictors of prolonged hospitalization among children aged 2-59 months admitted with severe community-acquired pneumonia between 1 January 2016 and 30 December 2020 in the public hospitals in Benishangul-Gumuz Region, Ethiopia.

Method

A retrospective follow-up study design was conducted among randomly selected samples of 526 children. Data were entered into EPI data version 4.6 and analyzed using STATA version 14.0. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to identify the independent predictors of prolonged hospitalization, and variables with a p-value <0.05 in the multivariable model were considered statistically significant.

Results

The median hospital stay was 5 days (interquartile range 2-8 = 6). Approximately 149 (28.93%) children had prolonged hospitalization (>5 days) and the recovery rate from severe community-acquired pneumonia was 19.69 per 100 person-day observations. The significant predictors of prolonged hospitalization were as follows: having facility referral sources [0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63-0.98]; a nutritional status of wasting (0.64, 95% CI, 0.44-0.94); anemia (0.65, 95% CI, 0.46-0.90); no identified hemoglobin level (0.53, 95% CI, 0.41-0.70); no identified blood film (0.65, 95% CI, 0.53-0.80); no chest x-ray investigation (0.81, 95% CI, 0.65-0.99); pulmonary effusion (0.31, 95% CI, 0.15-0.66); and late presenters to hospital (0.67, 95% CI, 0.53-0.84) at admission.

Conclusions

The median length of stay in hospital was delayed compared to other studies. Wasting, late presenting to hospital, pulmonary effusion, anemia, absence of investigations of hemoglobin level, chest x-ray, and blood film at admission time were factors that significantly prolonged the hospitalization time. Hence, attention should be given to the prevention of malnutrition and anemia in children, increasing early health-seeking behavior in the community. Attention should be given to complications such as pleural effusion, and investigations, such as chest x-ray, hemoglobin levels, and blood films, should be performed when the child is admitted.

Survival status and predictors of mortality from severe community-acquired pneumonia among under-five children admitted at Debre Tabor comprehensive specialized hospital: a prospective cohort study

Background

Globally, Pneumonia continues to be the leading cause of mortality among under-five children. Ethiopia ranks fourth out of 15 countries worldwide in terms of the highest death rate of under-five children due to severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). However, to date, there is no recent study that shows survival status and predictors of mortality from SCAP. Therefore, this study aimed to determine survival status and predictors of mortality from this dangerous disease among under-five children.

Methods

A facility-based prospective cohort study was conducted from 1 November 2021 to 31 October 2022 at Debre Tabor comprehensive specialized hospital. All under-five children with SCAP admitted during the study period were included. Participants were selected using a systematic sampling technique. The collected data were coded, edited, and entered into epi-data version 4.2 and then exported to STATA version 17 for further analysis. The Kaplan Meier failure estimate with log-rank test was employed to determine the survival estimates. A cox-proportional hazard regression model was fitted to identify significant variables.

Results

The overall incidence density rate of mortality was 5.7 /1000 children with a median hospital stay of 8.2 days. Heart disease (AHR: 4.37; 95%CI: 1.68-11.32), previous admission of SCAP (AHR: 3.87; 95% CI: 1.31-11.43), WFL < -3Z score (AHR: 3.57; 95% CI: 1.02-12.42), impaired consciousness level at admission 3.41(1.14-10.19), and pleural effusion (AHR: 3.42; 95%CI: 1.18-9.93) were significant predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

In this study, the survival probability of children with SCAP was low. Children with heart disease, previous admission of SCAP, WFL < -3Z score, impaired consciousness level at admission, and pleural effusion had low survival. Therefore, much emphasis is needed on children with SCAP, particularly those with identified predictors.

Joint modeling of longitudinal measures of pneumonia and time to convalescence among pneumonia patients: a comparison of separate and joint models

BACKGROUND

Globally, pneumonia is the leading cause of children under age five morbidity and mortality with 98% of deaths in developing countries.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify the determinants of longitudinal measures of pneumonia and time to convalescence or recovery of under five admitted pneumonia patients at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted among a randomly selected sample of 101 pneumonia patients using simple random sampling who were on follow up from December 2019 to February 2020. A Linear mixed effect model were used for the longitudinal outcomes and joint model for modeling both longitudinal and time to event outcomes jointly respectively.

RESULTS

The significant values of shared parameters in the survival sub model shows that the use of joint modeling of multivariate longitudinal outcomes with the time to event outcome is the best model compared to separate models. The estimated values of the association parameters: - 0.297(p-value = 0.0021), - 0.121) (p-value = < 0.001) and 0.5452 (p-value = 0.006) indicates association of respiratory rate, pulse rate and oxygen saturation respectively with time to recovery. The significant values show that there is an evidence to say that there is a negative relationship between longitudinal measures of respiratory rate and pulse rate with time to recovery and there is positive relationship between longitudinal measures of oxygen saturation with time to recovery. Variables age, birth order, dangerous signs, severity and visit time were significant factors on the longitudinal measure of pulse rate. The significant factors related to longitudinal measures of oxygen saturation were birth order, severity and visit. From this we can conclude that birth order, severity and visit were significant variables that simultaneously affect the longitudinal measures of respiratory rate, pulse rate and oxygen saturation of patients at 5% level of significance.

CONCLUSION

Results of multivariate joint analysis shows that severity was significant variable that jointly affects the three longitudinal measures and time to recovery of pneumonia patients and we can conclude that patients with severe pneumonia have high values of respiratory rate and pulse rate as well as less amount of oxygen saturation and they need longer time to recover from the disease.

Incidence of recovery from severe pneumonia and its predictors among children 2-59 months admitted to pediatric ward of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Tigray, Ethiopia: A retrospective Cohort study

Background

Pneumonia is a major reason for hospital admission among children, particularly in resource-poor areas. A hospital stay (length of stay) alone is found to contribute for 46.8% of a household cost for single episode of severe pneumonia. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of recovery from severe pneumonia and predictors among children 2-59 months of age admitted to pediatric ward of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (ACSH).

Methods

A retrospective facility-based cohort study was conducted among under-five-year-old children admitted in ACSH. Three years medical records from July 7, 2015 to July 6, 2018 were reviewed. A total of 285 children with severe pneumonia admitted to pediatric ward of ACSH were included. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curve was used to estimate recovery time. The independent effects of covariates on recovery time are analyzed using multivariate Cox-proportional adjusted model.

Result

The median survival time was four days (95% CI = 3.732 - 4.268). The incidence of recovery was 92.3%. Co-morbidity (AOR: 3.47, 95%CI, 2.21, 5.4), malnutrition (AOR = 1.9, 95%CI, 1.2, 3.1), duration of chief complaint (AOR = 0.72, 95%CI: 0.54, 0.94), and vaccination (AOR = 0.32, 95% CI, 0.13, 0.81) were significant predictors of time to recovery from severe pneumonia.

Conclusion

High recovery rate and short length of hospital stay was observed in this study. Increased duration of chief complaint, presence of co-morbidity, being malnourished, and vaccination were factors that associated with time to recovery. Therefore focuses have to be given in increasing the community's health seeking behavior to visit health facility early and especial attention should be given for children with co-morbidity, malnutrition, and unvaccinated children.

Time to Recovery from Severe Pneumonia and Its Predictors Among Children 2-59 Months of Age Admitted to Pediatric Ward of Nigist Eleni Mohammed Memorial Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Hossana, Ethiopia: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Severe pneumonia is still the greatest infectious cause of morbidity and mortality in children under the age of five around the world. Each night spent in the hospital raises the chance of bad drug responses, infections, and ulcers by 0.5%, 1.6%, and 0.5%, respectively. In Southern Ethiopia, as well as the research area, little is known regarding death and recovery time from severe pneumonia and their determinants.

Objective

To determine time to recovery from severe pneumonia and its predictors among children 2–59 months of age admitted to pediatric ward of Nigist Eleni Mohammed Memorial Comprehensive Specialized Hospital.

Methods

A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among children 2–59 months of age. Three years’ medical records, from January 2017 to December 2020, were reviewed. A total of 280 children with severe pneumonia were included. In the case of survival time, median was calculated. Kaplan Meier survival curve was used to estimate recovery time from severe pneumonia, and the independent effects of covariates on recovery time were analyzed using multivariable Cox-proportional hazard model.

Results

The median time to recovery was 4 days (interquartile range = 3, 5). The incidence rate of recovery was 24.16 per 100 person-days. Underweight (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.38–0.80), age group 12–35 months (adjusted hazard ratio= 2.0, 95% CI=1.30–3.30), treatment with ampicillin and gentamicin (adjusted hazard ratio= 0.35, 95% CI: 0.13–0.80), and antibiotic change (adjusted hazard ratio= 0.34, 95% CI = 0.21–0.53) were statistically significant predictors of time to recovery from severe pneumonia.

Conclusion

The median length of stay in the hospital was short (4 days [interquartile range =3, 5]). Time to recover from severe pneumonia was significantly influenced by being underweight, age, antibiotics administered first, and antibiotic change. Measures such as providing nutritious meals to children and ensuring that underweight children are properly managed should be bolstered.