DDRP: Real-time phenology and climatic suitability modeling of invasive insects

Evaluation of the effect of agroclimatic variables on the probability and timing of olive fruit fly attack

Agroclimatic variables may affect insect and plant phenology, with unpredictable effects on pest populations and crop losses. Bactrocera oleae Rossi (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a specific pest of Olea europaea plants that can cause annual economic losses of more than one billion US dollars in the Mediterranean region. In this study, we aimed at understanding the effect of olive tree phenology and other agroclimatic variables on B. oleae infestation dynamics in the Umbria region (Central Italy). Analyses were carried out on B. oleae infestation data collected in 79 olive groves during a 7-year period (from 2015 to 2021). In July-August, B. oleae infestation (1% attack) was negatively affected by altitude and spring mean daily temperatures and positively by higher winter mean daily temperatures and olive tree cumulative degree days. In September-October, infestation was negatively affected by a positive soil water balance and high spring temperatures. High altitude and cumulative plant degree days were related to delayed attacks. In contrast, high winter and spring temperatures accelerated them. Our results could be helpful for the development of predictive models and for increasing the reliability of decision support systems currently used in olive orchards.

A generalized risk assessment index for forecasting insect population under the effect of temperature

Life history traits have been studied under various environmental factors, but the ability to combine them into a simple function to assess pest response to climate is still lacking complete understanding. This study proposed a risk index derived by combining development, mortality, and fertility rates from a stage-structured dynamic mathematical model. The first part presents the theoretical framework behind the risk index. The second part of the study is concerned with the application of the index in two case studies of major economic pest: the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) and the spotted wing drosophila (Drosophila suzukii), pests of rice crops and soft fruits, respectively. The mathematical calculations provided a single function composed of the main thermal biodemographic rates. This function has a threshold value that determines the possibility of population increase as a function of temperature. The tests carried out on the two pest species showed the capability of the index to describe the range of favourable conditions. With this approach, we were able to identify areas where pests are tolerant to climatic conditions and to project them on a geospatial risk map. The theoretical background developed here provided a tool for understanding the biogeography of Nilaparvata lugens and Drosophila suzukii. It is flexible enough to deal with mathematically simple (N. lugens) and complex (D. Suzukii) case studies of crop insect pests. It produces biologically sound indices that behave like thermal performance curves. These theoretical results also provide a reasonable basis for addressing the challenge of pest management in the context of seasonal weather variations and climate change. This may help to improve monitoring and design management strategies to limit the spread of pests in invaded areas, as some non-invaded areas may be suitable for the species to develop.

Can ecological niche models be used to accurately predict the distribution of invasive insects? A case study of Hyphantria cunea in China

In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long-term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short-term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China.

An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer

Introduction

Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.

Methods

We evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.

Results

Overall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native Fraxinus species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.

Discussion

Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions.

Comparing the effectiveness of different insecticide application orders for suppressing Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) infestation: experimental and modeling approaches

Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) is a key pest of soft-skinned fruit such as blackberry and blueberry. Differing seasonal spray regimes are expected to have variable effects on D. suzukii populations. Semi-field cage trials were performed at three locations in the United States (Georgia, Oregon, and North Carolina) on blueberry and blackberry crops to evaluate this hypothesis. Insecticides with different efficacy rates (ZC - zeta-cypermethrin, SPI - spinetoram, CYAN - cyantraniliprole) were applied during field experiments conducted within large cages. Treatment schedules consisted of two insecticide applications which performed over three weeks. Seasonal treatment schedules were applied in the following order: ZC-CYAN and CYAN-ZC in rabbiteye and highbush blueberry with the addition of a ZC-SPI treatment applied in blackberry. In addition, a population model was applied to simulate the relative efficacy of the insecticide schedules in Oregon on D. suzukii population model based on previously published efficacy, biological, and weather parameters. Overall, all schedules resulted in reduced D. suzukii infestation compared to untreated control (UTC) treatments, with statistical differences in all three locations. The numerically lower infestation was found in some cases in ZC-CYAN schedule. Population modeling conducted exclusively for blueberry, and the simulations indicated no discernible differences between the two respective schedules (ZC-CYAN vs CYAN-ZC). The present study demonstrates that seasonal infestation of D. suzukii could be suppressed irrespective of application order. Additional research is required to assess the optimal timing and sequence of insecticide applications for controlling seasonal populations of D. suzukii in fruit crops. Such information could be invaluable for growers who are seeking to strategize their insecticide applications.

Phenology and Voltinism of Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Central North Carolina

The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), has killed millions of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees across North America. Classical biological control using introductions of parasitoid wasps may provide a sustainable approach to managing this invasive insect. However, the establishment of parasitoids in the southern United States has been difficult. The phenology of emerald ash borer was studied in central North Carolina to inform biological control efforts that better align with the seasonal availability of susceptible emerald ash borer life stages in the warm climate of this region. Biweekly emerald ash borer life stage assessments were conducted in stands of infested green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marshall, Lamiales: Oleaceae) over 26 consecutive months (June 2019 through August 2021). Adult trapping was also conducted in these stands in the spring and summer of 2019, 2020, and 2021. Based on these collections, emerald ash borer exhibits a univoltine (1-yr) life cycle. Parasitoid-susceptible larvae (third and fourth instars in galleries) are present from late June through October (~1,100-3,000 degree days base 10ºC) and are mostly absent during the remainder of the year. Parasitoid release timings and the life history of selected parasitoid species should be aligned with this window of host availability to be effective. This characterization of emerald ash borer phenology and voltinism will help improve the timing and effectiveness of management efforts as this forest pest continues to spread in southern North America.

Combining photoperiod and thermal responses to predict phenological mismatch for introduced insects

A wide variety of organisms use the regular seasonal changes in photoperiod as a cue to align their life cycles with favorable conditions. Yet the phenological consequences of photoperiodism for organisms exposed to new climates are often overlooked. We present a conceptual approach and phenology model that maps voltinism (generations per year) and the degree of phenological mismatch that can arise when organisms with a short-day diapause response are introduced to new regions or are otherwise exposed to new climates. Our degree-day-based model combines continent-wide spatialized daily climate data, calculated date-specific and latitude-specific day lengths, and experimentally determined developmental responses to both photoperiod and temperature. Using the case of the knotweed psyllid Aphalara itadori, a new biological control agent being introduced from Japan to North America and Europe to control an invasive weed, we show how incorporating a short-day diapause response will result in geographic patterns of attempted voltinism that are strikingly different from the potential number of generations based on degree-days alone. The difference between the attempted and potential generations represents a quantitative measure of phenological mismatch between diapause timing and the end of the growing season. We conclude that insects moved from lower to higher latitudes (or to cooler climates) will tend to diapause too late, potentially resulting in high mortality from inclement weather, and those moved from higher to lower latitude (to warmer climates) may be prone to diapausing too early, therefore not fully exploiting the growing season and/or suffering from insufficient reserves for the longer duration in diapause. Mapped output reveals a central region with good phenology match that shifts north or south depending on the geographic source of the insect and its corresponding critical photoperiod for diapause. These results have direct relevance for efforts to establish populations of classical biocontrol agents. More generally, our approach and model could be applied to a wide variety of photoperiod- and temperature-sensitive organisms that are exposed to changes in climate, including resident and invasive agricultural pests and species of conservation concern.