Human movement and gully erosion: Investigating feedback mechanisms using Frequency Ratio and Least Cost Path analysis in Tigray, Ethiopia

Understanding land degradation induced by gully erosion from the perspective of different geoenvironmental factors

Complex interrelationships between landscape-level geoenvironmental factors and natural phenomena have rendered land degradation control measures ineffective. For control to be effective, this study argues that the interactions between different geoenvironmental factors and gully erosion (as an indicator of land degradation) should be more fully investigated and spatially mapped. To do so, gully locations of the Konduran watershed, Iran, were detected in the field and modeled in response to seventeen geoenvironmental factors using three machine learning methods, i.e., multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), random forest (RF), regularized random forest (RRF), and Bayesian generalized linear model (Bayesian GLM). The models' performance was validated, the relationship of gully occurrence with each factor was quantified, the probability of gully erosion (i.e., land degradation) was retrospectively estimated, and the spatially explicit maps of land degradation susceptibility were produced. Based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the RRF and MARS models with AUC = 0.98 achieved the greatest goodness-of-fit with the training dataset, whereas the RF model with AUC = 0.83 showed the greatest ability in predicting future gully occurrences. Further scrutinization using the sensitivity and specificity metrics demonstrated the efficiency of the RF model for correctly classifying the gully (sensitivity-training = 92%; sensitivity-validation = 90%) and non-gully (specificity-training = 95%; specificity-validation = 68%) pixels. Nearly 13% of the study area ended up being the hardest hit region due to their general characteristics of distance from roads and rives, altitude, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that were identified as the most influential factors in gully erosion occurrence. Given the resolution quality and reliable predictive accuracy, our spatially explicit maps of land susceptibility to gully erosion can be used by authorities and urban planners for identifying the target areas for rehabilitation and making more informed decisions for infrastructure development. Although our study was strictly focused on a certain region, our recommendations and implications are of global significance.

Modeling Gully Erosion Susceptibility to Evaluate Human Impact on a Local Landscape System in Tigray, Ethiopia

In recent years, modeling gully erosion susceptibility has become an increasingly popular approach for assessing the impact of different land degradation factors. However, different forms of human influence have so far not been identified in order to form an independent model. We investigate the spatial relation between gully erosion and distance to settlements and footpaths, as typical areas of human interaction, with the natural environment in rural African areas. Gullies are common features in the Ethiopian Highlands, where they often hinder agricultural productivity. Within a catchment in the north Ethiopian Highlands, 16 environmental and human-related variables are mapped and categorized. The resulting susceptibility to gully erosion is predicted by applying the Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. Human-related and environmental factors are used to generate independent susceptibility models and form an additional inclusive model. The resulting models are compared and evaluated by applying a change detection technique. All models predict the locations of most gullies, while 28% of gully locations are exclusively predicted using human-related factors.