Can late stage marine mortality explain observed shifts in age structure of Chinook salmon?

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate-driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well-being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon-environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns-per-spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock-recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well-documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

Programmed acoustic tags reveal novel information on late-phase marine life in Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar

This pilot study used programmed acoustic tags implanted into Salmo salar smolts, in conjunction with an extensive offshore marine receiver array, to investigate late-stage migratory behaviour and survival of returning adult salmon. A total of 100 smolts were tagged in 2020, and a number of individuals were successfully detected as returning adults in 2021. After detection efficiency was accounted for, 5-9 adults were estimated to have returned to the offshore array c. 45 km from the river mouth. A total of three fish were subsequently detected in the river. Losses of between 40% and 66% were evident during the final stages of ocean migration, and one tagged fish provided direct evidence of a predation event.