Predictors of singleton preterm birth using multinomial regression models accounting for missing data: A birth registry-based cohort study in northern Tanzania

Neonatal Admission Temperature in Middle- and High-Income Countries

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Despite being preventable, neonatal hypothermia remains common. We hypothesized that the proportion of newborns with hypothermia on admission would be high in all settings, higher in hospitals in middle-income countries (MIC) compared with high-income countries (HIC), and associated with morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

Using the Vermont Oxford Network database of newborns with birth weights 401 to 1500 g or 22 to 29 weeks' gestational age from 2018 to 2021, we analyzed maternal and infant characteristics, delivery room management, and outcomes by temperature within 1 hour of admission to the NICU in 12 MICs and 22 HICs.

RESULTS

Among 201 046 newborns, hypothermia was more common in MIC hospitals (64.0%) compared with HIC hospitals (28.6%). Lower birth weight, small for gestational age status, and prolonged resuscitation were perinatal risk factors for hypothermia. The mortality was doubled for hypothermic compared with euthermic newborns in MICs (24.7% and 15.4%) and HICs (12.7% and 7.6%) hospitals. After adjusting for confounders, the relative risk of death among hypothermic newborns compared with euthermic newborns was 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.09-1.33) in MICs and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.21-1.31) in HICs. Every 1°C increase in admission temperature was associated with a 9% and 10% decrease in mortality risk in MICs and HICs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large sample of newborns across MICs and HICs, hypothermia remains common and is strongly associated with mortality. The profound burden of hypothermia presents an opportunity for strategies to improve outcomes and achieve the neonatal 2030 Sustainable Development Goal.

A Scoping Review of Preterm Births in Sub-Saharan Africa: Burden, Risk Factors and Outcomes

Preterm births (PTB) are the leading cause of neonatal deaths, the majority of which occur in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Understanding the epidemiology of prematurity is an essential step towards tackling the challenge of PTB in the sub-continent. We performed a scoping review of the burden, predictors and outcomes of PTB in SSA. We searched PubMed, Embase, and three other databases for articles published from the database inception to 10 July 2021. Studies reporting the prevalence of PTB, the associated risk factors, and/or its outcomes were eligible for inclusion in this review. Our literature search identified 4441 publications, but only 181 met the inclusion criteria. Last menstrual period (LMP) was the most commonly used method of estimating gestational age. The prevalence of PTB in SSA ranged from 3.4% to 49.4%. Several risk factors of PTB were identified in this review. The most frequently reported risk factors (i.e., reported in ≥10 studies) were previous history of PTB, underutilization of antenatal care (<4 visits), premature rupture of membrane, maternal age (≤20 or ≥35 years), inter-pregnancy interval, malaria, HIV and hypertension in pregnancy. Premature babies had high rates of hospital admissions, were at risk of poor growth and development, and were also at a high risk of morbidity and mortality. There is a high burden of PTB in SSA. The true burden of PTB is underestimated due to the widespread use of LMP, an unreliable and often inaccurate method for estimating gestational age. The associated risk factors for PTB are mostly modifiable and require an all-inclusive intervention to reduce the burden and improve outcomes in SSA.

Predictors of colorectal cancer survival using cox regression and random survival forests models based on gene expression data

Understanding and identifying the markers and clinical information that are associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) patient survival is needed for early detection and diagnosis. In this work, we aimed to build a simple model using Cox proportional hazards (PH) and random survival forest (RSF) and find a robust signature for predicting CRC overall survival. We used stepwise regression to develop Cox PH model to analyse 54 common differentially expressed genes from three mutations. RSF is applied using log-rank and log-rank-score based on 5000 survival trees, and therefore, variables important obtained to find the genes that are most influential for CRC survival. We compared the predictive performance of the Cox PH model and RSF for early CRC detection and diagnosis. The results indicate that SLC9A8, IER5, ARSJ, ANKRD27, and PIPOX genes were significantly associated with the CRC overall survival. In addition, age, sex, and stages are also affecting the CRC overall survival. The RSF model using log-rank is better than log-rank-score, while log-rank-score needed more trees to stabilize. Overall, the imputation of missing values enhanced the model’s predictive performance. In addition, Cox PH predictive performance was better than RSF.

Joint Modeling of Singleton Preterm Birth and Perinatal Death Using Birth Registry Cohort Data in Northern Tanzania

Understanding independent and joint predictors of adverse pregnancy outcomes is essential to inform interventions toward achieving sustainable development goals. We aimed to determine the joint predictors of preterm birth and perinatal death among singleton births in northern Tanzania based on cohort data from the Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center (KCMC) zonal referral hospital birth registry between 2000 and 2017. We determined the joint predictors of preterm birth and perinatal death using the random-effects models to account for the correlation between these outcomes. The joint predictors of higher preterm birth and perinatal death risk were inadequate (<4) antenatal care (ANC) visits, referred for delivery, experiencing pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum hemorrhage, low birth weight, abruption placenta, and breech presentation. Younger maternal age (15-24 years), premature rupture of membranes, placenta previa, and male children had higher odds of preterm birth but a lessened likelihood of perinatal death. These findings suggest ANC is a critical entry point for delivering the recommended interventions to pregnant women, especially those at high risk of experiencing adverse pregnancy outcomes. Improved management of complications during pregnancy and childbirth and the postnatal period may eventually lead to a substantial reduction of adverse perinatal outcomes and improving maternal and child health.