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Gonzalez‐Aragon D, Rivadeneira MM, Lara C, Torres FI, Vásquez JA, Broitman BR. A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e10901. [PMID: 38435006 PMCID: PMC10905252 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae-kelps-form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08° S of latitude for 2090-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Gonzalez‐Aragon
- Doctorado en Ciencias, mención en Biodiversidad y Biorecursos, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónConcepcionChile
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Núcleo Milenio UPWELL
| | - Marcelo M. Rivadeneira
- Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas ÁridasCoquimboChile
- Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del MarUniversidad Católica del NorteCoquimboChile
| | - Carlos Lara
- Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónConcepcionChile
- Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y SustentabilidadUniversidad Bernardo O'HigginsSantiagoChile
| | - Felipe I. Torres
- Doctorado en Ciencias, mención en Biodiversidad y Biorecursos, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónConcepcionChile
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Data Observatory Foundation, ANID Technology Center No. DO210001SantiagoChile
| | - Julio A. Vásquez
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del MarUniversidad Católica del NorteCoquimboChile
- Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas y Otros Recursos Biológicos (CIDTA)CoquimboChile
| | - Bernardo R. Broitman
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Núcleo Milenio UPWELL
- Facultad de Artes LiberalesUniversidad Adolfo IbañezViña Del MarChile
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Bell TW, Cavanaugh KC, Saccomanno VR, Cavanaugh KC, Houskeeper HF, Eddy N, Schuetzenmeister F, Rindlaub N, Gleason M. Kelpwatch: A new visualization and analysis tool to explore kelp canopy dynamics reveals variable response to and recovery from marine heatwaves. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0271477. [PMID: 36952444 PMCID: PMC10035835 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Giant kelp and bull kelp forests are increasingly at risk from marine heatwave events, herbivore outbreaks, and the loss or alterations in the behavior of key herbivore predators. The dynamic floating canopy of these kelps is well-suited to study via satellite imagery, which provides high temporal and spatial resolution data of floating kelp canopy across the western United States and Mexico. However, the size and complexity of the satellite image dataset has made ecological analysis difficult for scientists and managers. To increase accessibility of this rich dataset, we created Kelpwatch, a web-based visualization and analysis tool. This tool allows researchers and managers to quantify kelp forest change in response to disturbances, assess historical trends, and allow for effective and actionable kelp forest management. Here, we demonstrate how Kelpwatch can be used to analyze long-term trends in kelp canopy across regions, quantify spatial variability in the response to and recovery from the 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave events, and provide a local analysis of kelp canopy status around the Monterey Peninsula, California. We found that 18.6% of regional sites displayed a significant trend in kelp canopy area over the past 38 years and that there was a latitudinal response to heatwave events for each kelp species. The recovery from heatwave events was more variable across space, with some local areas like Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur showing high recovery while kelp canopies around the Monterey Peninsula continued a slow decline and patchy recovery compared to the rest of the Central California region. Kelpwatch provides near real time spatial data and analysis support and makes complex earth observation data actionable for scientists and managers, which can help identify areas for research, monitoring, and management efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom W. Bell
- Department of Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Kyle C. Cavanaugh
- Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | | | - Katherine C. Cavanaugh
- Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Henry F. Houskeeper
- Department of Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Norah Eddy
- The Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, California, United States of America
| | | | - Nathaniel Rindlaub
- The Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, California, United States of America
| | - Mary Gleason
- The Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, California, United States of America
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van der Grient J, Morley S, Arkhipkin A, Bates J, Baylis A, Brewin P, Harte M, White JW, Brickle P. The Falkland Islands marine ecosystem: A review of the seasonal dynamics and trophic interactions across the food web. ADVANCES IN MARINE BIOLOGY 2023; 94:1-68. [PMID: 37244676 DOI: 10.1016/bs.amb.2023.01.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
The Falkland Islands marine environment host a mix of temperate and subantarctic species. This review synthesizes baseline information regarding ontogenetic migration patterns and trophic interactions in relation to oceanographic dynamics of the Falkland Shelf, which is useful to inform ecosystem modelling. Many species are strongly influenced by regional oceanographic dynamics that bring together different water masses, resulting in high primary production which supports high biomass in the rest of the food web. Further, many species, including those of commercial interest, show complex ontogenetic migrations that separate spawning, nursing, and feeding grounds spatially and temporally, producing food web connections across space and time. The oceanographic and biological dynamics may make the ecosystem vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature and shifts in the surrounding area. The Falkland marine ecosystem has been understudied and various functional groups, deep-sea habitats and inshore-offshore connections are poorly understood and should be priorities for further research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Simon Morley
- British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Alexander Arkhipkin
- Falkland Islands Government, Directorate of Natural Resources, Fisheries Department, Stanley, Falkland Islands
| | - James Bates
- Falkland Islands Fishing Companies Association, Stanley, Falkland Islands
| | - Alastair Baylis
- South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute, Stanley, Falkland Islands
| | - Paul Brewin
- South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute, Stanley, Falkland Islands; Shallow Marine Surveys Group, Stanley, Falkland Islands
| | - Michael Harte
- College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
| | - J Wilson White
- Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
| | - Paul Brickle
- South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute, Stanley, Falkland Islands; School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
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Marquez L, Fragkopoulou E, Cavanaugh KC, Houskeeper HF, Assis J. Artificial intelligence convolutional neural networks map giant kelp forests from satellite imagery. Sci Rep 2022; 12:22196. [PMID: 36564409 PMCID: PMC9789120 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-26439-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is producing shifts in the distribution and abundance of marine species. Such is the case of kelp forests, important marine ecosystem-structuring species whose distributional range limits have been shifting worldwide. Synthesizing long-term time series of kelp forest observations is therefore vital for understanding the drivers shaping ecosystem dynamics and for predicting responses to ongoing and future climate changes. Traditional methods of mapping kelp from satellite imagery are time-consuming and expensive, as they require high amount of human effort for image processing and algorithm optimization. Here we propose the use of mask region-based convolutional neural networks (Mask R-CNN) to automatically assimilate data from open-source satellite imagery (Landsat Thematic Mapper) and detect kelp forest canopy cover. The analyses focused on the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera along the shorelines of southern California and Baja California in the northeastern Pacific. Model hyper-parameterization was tuned through cross-validation procedures testing the effect of data augmentation, and different learning rates and anchor sizes. The optimal model detected kelp forests with high performance and low levels of overprediction (Jaccard's index: 0.87 ± 0.07; Dice index: 0.93 ± 0.04; over prediction: 0.06) and allowed reconstructing a time series of 32 years in Baja California (Mexico), a region known for its high variability in kelp owing to El Niño events. The proposed framework based on Mask R-CNN now joins the list of cost-efficient tools for long-term marine ecological monitoring, facilitating well-informed biodiversity conservation, management and decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Marquez
- CCMAR - Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - E Fragkopoulou
- CCMAR - Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - K C Cavanaugh
- Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - H F Houskeeper
- Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - J Assis
- CCMAR - Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal.
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