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Lemic D, Kriticos DJ, Viric Gasparic H, Pajač Živković I, Duffy C, Akrivou A, Ota N. Global change and adaptive biosecurity: managing current and emerging Aleurocanthus woglumi threats to Europe. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2024; 62:101164. [PMID: 38244690 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2024.101164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 01/22/2024]
Abstract
Global climate changes undermine the effectiveness of 'set and forget' phytosanitary regulations. Uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emission profiles render it impossible to accurately forecast future climate, thus limiting the ability to make long-term biosecurity policy decisions. Agile adaptive biosecurity frameworks are necessary to address these climatic uncertainties and to effectively manage current and emerging threats. This paper provides opinions on these issues and presents a case study focusing on the threats posed by Aleurocanthus woglumi (citrus blackfly) to Europe. It delves into the biology of the species, its preferred hosts, and how climate change could affect its spread. Utilizing a bioclimatic niche model, the paper estimates the potential distribution of A. woglumi in Europe under recent historical and medium-term future conditions, revealing a potential expansion of its range into higher elevations and more northern regions by the year 2050. The main aim is to leverage the results to showcase the system's sensitivity to likely emission scenarios, essentially stress-testing for potential emerging threats to biosecurity policies and phytosanitary regulations. The results underscore the significance of considering global change factors in pest risk assessment and phytosanitary regulations for effective risk mitigation. Consequently, adaptive biosecurity measures are essential, encompassing horizon scanning, enhanced targeted surveillance, periodic updates of risk assessments, and adjustments to regulations. For instance, biosecurity risk management could involve establishing a set of trigger conditions to prompt updates of risk assessments, such as identifying a zone where the confirmed establishment of a pest signifies a significant change in the pest risk profile. For jurisdictions containing areas modeled as being climatically suitable under historical climates or future climate scenarios, we caution against importing untreated host materials from regions that are likely to become suitable habitats for A. woglumi in the future. Moreover, it is important to consider both present and future climate change scenarios when making decisions to effectively address the threats posed by invasive species. In the case of highly impactful invasives, investing in preemptive biological control measures may prove to be a prudent choice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darija Lemic
- University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetošimunska 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia.
| | | | - Helena Viric Gasparic
- University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetošimunska 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Ivana Pajač Živković
- University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetošimunska 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Catriona Duffy
- Maynooth University, Maynooth University Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth; Met Eireann, Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland
| | - Antigoni Akrivou
- Benaki Phytopathological Institute, Stefanou Delta 8, 14561 Athens, Greece
| | - Noboru Ota
- CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
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da Silva NR, Souza PGC, de Oliveira GS, da Silva Santana A, Bacci L, Silva GA, Barry EJDV, de Aguiar Coelho F, Soares MA, Picanço MC, Sarmento RA, da Silva RS. A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:535. [PMID: 38498543 PMCID: PMC10891955 DOI: 10.3390/plants13040535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 02/09/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024]
Abstract
The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nilson Rodrigues da Silva
- Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica do Sertão (DEAS), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), Rodovia Eng. Jorge Neto—Km 03, s/n, Nossa Senhora da Glória 49680-000, SE, Brazil;
| | - Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza
- Departamento de Agronomia, Instituto Federal de Ciência e Tecnologia do Triângulo Mineiro (IFTM Campus Uberlândia), Uberlândia 38400-970, MG, Brazil;
| | - Gildriano Soares de Oliveira
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil; (G.S.d.O.); (E.J.D.V.B.); (M.A.S.)
| | - Alisson da Silva Santana
- Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica (DEA), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), São Cristóvão 49100-000, SE, Brazil; (A.d.S.S.); (L.B.)
| | - Leandro Bacci
- Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica (DEA), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), São Cristóvão 49100-000, SE, Brazil; (A.d.S.S.); (L.B.)
| | - Gerson Adriano Silva
- Laboratório de Entomologia e Fitopatologia, Universidade Estadual Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro (UENF), Campos dos Goytacazes 28013-602, RJ, Brazil;
| | - Edmond Joseph Djibril Victor Barry
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil; (G.S.d.O.); (E.J.D.V.B.); (M.A.S.)
| | - Fernanda de Aguiar Coelho
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil;
| | - Marcus Alvarenga Soares
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil; (G.S.d.O.); (E.J.D.V.B.); (M.A.S.)
| | - Marcelo Coutinho Picanço
- Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Campus UFV, Viçosa 36570-000, MG, Brazil;
| | - Renato Almeida Sarmento
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal do Tocantins, Campus Gurupi, Gurupi 77402-970, TO, Brazil;
| | - Ricardo Siqueira da Silva
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil; (G.S.d.O.); (E.J.D.V.B.); (M.A.S.)
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil;
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Giakoumaki MV, Milonas P, Antonatos S, Evangelοu V, Partsinevelos G, Papachristos D, Ramadan MM. A Survey in Hawaii for Parasitoids of Citrus Whiteflies (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), for Introduction into Greece. INSECTS 2023; 14:858. [PMID: 37999057 PMCID: PMC10671686 DOI: 10.3390/insects14110858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023]
Abstract
Whitefly species of Aleurocanthus spiniferus (Quaintance) and A. woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) are serious pests of citrus and other important fruit crops. The problem of citrus has initiated the successful introduction of several natural enemies for biocontrol programs in Hawaii and many other countries. Here, we summarized the history of infestation and biocontrol efforts of the two whiteflies in Hawaii for possible parasitoid importation into Greece. Two Platygasteridae (Amitus hesperidum Silvestri, A. spiniferus (Brethes), and three Aphelinidae (Encarsia clypealis (Silvestri), E. smithi (Silvestri), E. perplexa Huang, and Polaszek) were released in Hawaii for biocontrol of the citrus whiteflies during the period 1974-1999. The aphelinid Cales noacki Howard, purposely released for Aleurothrixus flococcus (Maskell) in 1982, was also reported to attack other whiteflies, including Aleurocanthus species, on citrus. An additional aphelinid parasitoid, Encarsia nipponica Silvestri, native to Japan and China, was accidentally introduced and found to attack both citrus whiteflies on the islands. Since the colonization of introduced parasitoids in infested fields on four Hawaiian Islands, no survey has been conducted to evaluate their potential impact. We conducted two short surveys during September-November 2022 on the islands of Kauai, Hawaii, and Oahu to introduce the dominant parasitoids to Greece for the biocontrol of A. spiniferus. Results showed that the infestation level was very low on Kauai, Hawaii, and Oahu Islands, with a mean infestation level range of 1.4-3.1 on Hawaii and Oahu Islands, mostly on pummelo and sweet orange, with no detection on the island of Kauai. The dominant parasitoid was characterized as Encarsia perplexa, using molecular analysis. Its parasitism rates ranged from 0 to 28% on the island of Hawaii and 11 to 65% on the island of Oahu. Emerged parasitoids have been reared in Greece for evaluation. This was the first field survey of Hawaii since the introduction and release of citrus whitefly natural enemies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria-Vasiliki Giakoumaki
- Scientific Directorate of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561 Kifissia, Greece; (M.-V.G.); (P.M.); (S.A.); (V.E.); (G.P.)
| | - Panagiotis Milonas
- Scientific Directorate of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561 Kifissia, Greece; (M.-V.G.); (P.M.); (S.A.); (V.E.); (G.P.)
| | - Spyridon Antonatos
- Scientific Directorate of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561 Kifissia, Greece; (M.-V.G.); (P.M.); (S.A.); (V.E.); (G.P.)
| | - Vasiliki Evangelοu
- Scientific Directorate of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561 Kifissia, Greece; (M.-V.G.); (P.M.); (S.A.); (V.E.); (G.P.)
| | - George Partsinevelos
- Scientific Directorate of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561 Kifissia, Greece; (M.-V.G.); (P.M.); (S.A.); (V.E.); (G.P.)
| | - Dimitrios Papachristos
- Scientific Directorate of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561 Kifissia, Greece; (M.-V.G.); (P.M.); (S.A.); (V.E.); (G.P.)
| | - Mohsen M. Ramadan
- Division of Plant Industry, Hawaii Department of Agriculture, Honolulu, HI 96814, USA
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Bragard C, Baptista P, Chatzivassiliou E, Di Serio F, Gonthier P, Jaques Miret JA, Justesen AF, MacLeod A, Magnusson CS, Milonas P, Navas‐Cortes JA, Parnell S, Potting R, Reignault PL, Stefani E, Thulke H, van der Werf W, Yuen J, Zappalà L, Makowski D, Maiorano A, Mosbach‐Schulz O, Pautasso M, Vicent Civera A. Risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella for the EU. EFSA J 2023; 21:e07838. [PMID: 36846387 PMCID: PMC9951563 DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2023.7838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the citrus pulp borer, an oligophagous pest reported from South-East Asia and restricted to Citrus spp. The entry risk assessment focused on the citrus fruit pathway. Two scenarios were considered: scenario A0 (current practice) and A2 (additional post-harvest cold treatment). Based on the outputs of the entry model obtained in scenario A0, the median number of founder populations in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated to be slightly less than 10 per year (90%-uncertainty interval between about one entry per 180 years and 1,300 entries per year). The risk of entry and the simulated numbers of founder populations are orders of magnitude lower for scenario A2 compared to scenario A0. The key uncertainties in the entry model include transfer, the cold treatment effectiveness, the disaggregation factor and sorting. The simulated numbers of established populations are only slightly lower than the numbers of founder populations. As the probability of establishment has little impact on the number of established populations, it is not a major source of uncertainty, despite the lack of data on the thermal biology of the pest. The median lag period between establishment and spread is estimated to be slightly more than 1 year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2 months and 33 months). After the lag period, the median spread rate by natural means (flying) and due to transport of harvested citrus fruit from orchards to packinghouses is estimated at about 100 km/year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 40 and 500 km/year). The main sources of uncertainties affecting the spread rate include the extent to which environmental factors could hamper the build-up of the populations and the lack of data on the spread rate at the origin. The median impact of C. sagittiferella in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated at about 10% of infested fruits among the harvested citrus fruits (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2% and 25%). Uncertainties affecting the impact assessment include the susceptibility of different Citrus species and cultivars.
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