Estimation of patient flow in hospitals using up-to-date data. Application to bed demand prediction during pandemic waves

Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Patient Flows and Nursing Complexity: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

This study aimed to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to forecast the number of ICU beds needed for COVID-19 patients and the subsequent nursing complexity in a French teaching hospital during the first and second pandemic outbreaks. The model used patient data from March 2020 to September 2021, including age, sex, ICU length of stay, and number of patients on mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Nursing complexity was assessed using a simple scale with three levels based on patient status. The simulation was performed 1000 times to generate a scenario, and the mean outcome was compared with the observed outcome. The model also allowed for a 7-day forecast of ICU occupancy. The simulation output had a good fit with the actual data, with an R2 of 0.998 and a root mean square error of 0.22. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the Monte Carlo simulation model for predicting the demand for ICU beds and could help optimize resource allocation during a pandemic. The model's extrinsic validity was confirmed using open data from the French Public Health Authority. This study provides a valuable tool for healthcare systems to anticipate and manage surges in ICU demand during pandemics.

Optimizing inpatient bed management in a rural community-based hospital: a quality improvement initiative

BACKGROUND

Appropriate use of available inpatient beds is an ongoing challenge for US hospitals. Historical capacity goals of 80% to 85% may no longer serve the intended purpose of maximizing the resources of space, staff, and equipment. Numerous variables affect the input, throughput, and output of a hospital. Some of these variables include patient demand, regulatory requirements, coordination of patient flow between various systems, coordination of processes such as bed management and patient transfers, and the diversity of departments (both inpatient and outpatient) in an organization.

METHODS

Mayo Clinic Health System in the Southwest Minnesota region of the US, a community-based hospital system primarily serving patients in rural southwestern Minnesota and part of Iowa, consists of 2 postacute care and 3 critical access hospitals. Our inpatient bed usage rates had exceeded 85%, and patient transfers from the region to other hospitals in the state (including Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota) had increased. To address these quality gaps, we used a blend of Agile project management methodology, rapid Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles, and a proactive approach to patient placement in the medical-surgical units as a quality improvement initiative.

RESULTS

During 2 trial periods of the initiative, the main hub hospital (Mayo Clinic Health System hospital in Mankato) and other hospitals in the region increased inpatient bed usage while reducing total out-of-region transfers.

CONCLUSION

Our novel approach to proactively managing bed capacity in the hospital allowed the region's only tertiary medical center to increase capacity for more complex and acute cases by optimizing the use of historically underused partner hospital beds.