Junior to senior transition pathway in Italian Football: The rocky road to the top is not determined by youth national team's selections

Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate distributions: the rocky road from youth to senior level in men's European football

This study aimed to assess youth-to-senior transition rates, quantify the magnitude of relative age effect (RAEs), and evaluate how RAEs affect these transitions in 9,527 men's national football players of England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Regardless of national team, only -15%, 25%, and 40% of U17, U19, and U21 players successfully transitioned to the senior team, respectively, whilst -14%-24% progressed to senior level without being selected during youth. Data suggested a skewed birthdate distribution favouring relatively older players at U17, U19, and U21 levels across all countries, whereas RAEs were also present in England, Italy, and Spain at senior level. Youth-to-senior transition rates were modulated by birthdate at U17 and U19, whereby Q4 players were -2 and 1.5 times more likely to successfully transition at senior level than Q1 players, respectively. Selection at youth international level does not guarantee selection at senior level, but does make it more likely. Moreover, relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in youth categories, although are more likely to transition to senior level once they have entered the pathway.

Birth Advantages in Male Italian Soccer: How They Influence Players Youth Career and Their Future Career Status

Soccer organizations generally adopt deterministic models within their talent pathways. In this framework, early ability and results are emphasized, leading to selection biases, such as birth advantages (i.e., relative age effects and birthplace effects), which research has shown affect both early developmental experiences and continued sporting involvement. Accordingly, this study aimed to (a) provide further test of birth advantages in Italian youth soccer by exploring the birth quarter (BQ) and birthplace (BP) distribution of 1050 male Italian players born between 1999 and 2001 who competed in the national U17 championship throughout the 2015-16 season and (b) investigate how birth advantages influenced selected players' future career status. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests revealed early born players, and players born in North Italy were overrepresented at the youth level (p-values < 0.0001). Successive prospective analysis revealed only 18% of players developed into professional-level soccer players. Chi-square tests of independence indicated that players' BP was associated with their future career status (p < 0.0001), whereas their BQ was not (p = 0.459). Odds ratios showed players born in North Italy were five times more likely to complete the youth-to-senior transition than those born in South Italy. These findings highlighted environmental factors influence Italian players' early developmental experiences and their future career status.

International selection and competition in youth sport: pin the tail on the donkey or targeted intervention?

Across sporting contexts, there is growing debate surrounding the utility of junior international age group selection in sport. In this regard, there has been considerable focus on the age of selection, with the low conversion of athletes from junior to senior international level often used to critique the efficiency of such programmes. In this perspective article, we argue that there is a need for a more nuanced consideration of the effectiveness of international age groups in talent systems. We begin this perspective article with a synthesis of the literature pertaining to junior to senior transitions in sport, followed by the implications and opportunity cost presented by international age groups. We argue for a more contextual evaluation of international age groups relative to the performance aims of a talent system, the need for manipulation of challenge dynamics, and the resource costs of doing so (e.g., providing developmental challenges for those who have early advantage, or spreading resource amongst greater numbers for broader impact). We suggest that talent systems evaluate the opportunity cost presented by international age groups, with decisions based upon individual strategic context.

The relationships between relative age effect, personality constructs and achievement level in soccer

Introduction

Youth soccer academies are challenged with the constant recruitment process of young talented players to select those who will achieve long-term success as an athlete. Youth soccer academies strive to enhance the physical and technical skill development as well as personality development of talented players because psychological characteristics play a crucial role in players' future success in their transition to professional soccer. The least mature players and relatively young players may have a greater need to possess superior technical/tactical or psycho-behavioral skills than those relatively older counterparts because of the higher selection rates of early maturing players. Due to RAEs, a significant decrease in the overall quality of professional soccer teams might be observed because of the loss of talent of physically smaller, but psychologically stronger and more versatile relatively young players who possess proper technical and tactical attributes at an early age. The first objective of this study was to examine any possible relationship between RAE and personality constructs. A second objective was to identify factors and effects that can help in the further improvement of talent selection and equal opportunities for elite youth soccer players based on their underlying RAE. The third objective was to consider the impact of RAE on long-term career development.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, 151 elite youth soccer players between 15 and 18 years of age were first grouped in birth quartiles. Personality constructs were then assessed, using a combination of observations, interviews, and a self-assessment questionnaire. Next competition level after 8 years was evaluated to identify RAEs, differences in personality characteristics and opportunities to reach professional soccer player status between relatively older vs. younger players.

Results

A clear significant RAE was observed for the whole database (Q1 = 38.4% vs. Q4 = 13.9%) with OR of 2.61 (χ2 = 19.46, p < 0.01, r = -0.85). Relatively young players had higher median scores on personality constructs such as self-confidence (p = 0.04), while relatively old players had higher median scores on personality constructs such as team orientation (p = 0.03). In the long term, more players of the youngest birth quartile were signed as professional players (76.2%), compared with relatively old players (46.6%). 65.0% of the 20 players had the highest total score on personality constructs developed as a professional soccer player, vs. 35.0% of the 20 players with the lowest scores.

Discussion

In conclusion, this study showed not only further evidence of the RAE but also provided evidence supporting "the underdog hypothesis" in national elite youth teams. Relatively young players were also more likely to get higher value senior professional contracts in the long term. We propose that this may be due to the relatively young players developing superior psychological skills and technical expertise to compensate for their early physical disadvantage. This in turn suggests the need for greater awareness of the importance of personality constructs in the future development of youth elite soccer players. Therefore, the crux of the issue is how youth soccer academies elicit the "best of both worlds" ie. moderating RAE whilst also gaining the benefits of the underdog hypothesis by creating the right environment for every player to develop to their full potential in elite youth soccer academies.