Cost-effectiveness analysis of artificial intelligence-based diabetic retinopathy screening in rural China based on the Markov model

Economic evaluation for medical artificial intelligence: accuracy vs. cost-effectiveness in a diabetic retinopathy screening case

Artificial intelligence (AI) models have shown great accuracy in health screening. However, for real-world implementation, high accuracy may not guarantee cost-effectiveness. Improving AI's sensitivity finds more high-risk patients but may raise medical costs while increasing specificity reduces unnecessary referrals but may weaken detection capability. To evaluate the trade-off between AI model performance and the long-running cost-effectiveness, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis in a nationwide diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening program in China, comprising 251,535 participants with diabetes over 30 years. We tested a validated AI model in 1100 different diagnostic performances (presented as sensitivity/specificity pairs) and modeled annual screening scenarios. The status quo was defined as the scenario with the most accurate AI performance. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for other scenarios against the status quo as cost-effectiveness metrics. Compared to the status quo (sensitivity/specificity: 93.3%/87.7%), six scenarios were cost-saving and seven were cost-effective. To achieve cost-saving or cost-effective, the AI model should reach a minimum sensitivity of 88.2% and specificity of 80.4%. The most cost-effective AI model exhibited higher sensitivity (96.3%) and lower specificity (80.4%) than the status quo. In settings with higher DR prevalence and willingness-to-pay levels, the AI needed higher sensitivity for optimal cost-effectiveness. Urban regions and younger patient groups also required higher sensitivity in AI-based screening. In real-world DR screening, the most accurate AI model may not be the most cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness should be independently evaluated, which is most likely to be affected by the AI's sensitivity.

Artificial intelligence in retinal imaging: current status and future prospects

INTRODUCTION

The steadily growing and aging world population, in conjunction with continuously increasing prevalences of vision-threatening retinal diseases, is placing an increasing burden on the global healthcare system. The main challenges within retinology involve identifying the comparatively few patients requiring therapy within the large mass, the assurance of comprehensive screening for retinal disease and individualized therapy planning. In order to sustain high-quality ophthalmic care in the future, the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into our clinical practice represents a potential solution.

AREAS COVERED

This review sheds light onto already realized and promising future applications of AI techniques in retinal imaging. The main attention is directed at the application in diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration. The principles of use in disease screening, grading, therapeutic planning and prediction of future developments are explained based on the currently available literature.

EXPERT OPINION

The recent accomplishments of AI in retinal imaging indicate that its implementation into our daily practice is likely to fundamentally change the ophthalmic healthcare system and bring us one step closer to the goal of individualized treatment. However, it must be emphasized that the aim is to optimally support clinicians by gradually incorporating AI approaches, rather than replacing ophthalmologists.