Predicting mortality and morbidity after elective cardiac surgery using vasoactive and inflammatory biomarkers with and without the EuroSCORE model

The predictive value of TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 for kidney failure and 30-day mortality after elective cardiac surgery

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important risk factor for chronic kidney disease, renal replacement therapy (RRT), and mortality. However, predicting AKI with currently available markers remains problematic. We assessed the predictive value of urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloprotease-2 (TIMP-2) and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) regarding the need for RRT, and 30-day mortality, in elective cardiac surgery patients. In 344 elective cardiac surgery patients, we measured urinary TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 and serum creatinine at baseline and directly after surgery. Discrimination of both urinary biomarkers was assessed by the C-statistic. Model improvement for each biomarker when added to a basic model containing serum creatinine and duration of surgery was tested by the net-reclassification index (cf-NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI). At baseline, mean age was 66 years and 67% were men. Of all patients, 22 required RRT following surgery. IGFBP7 pre- and post-surgery and change in TIMP-2 during surgery predicted RRT with a C-statistic of about 0.80. However, a simple model including baseline serum creatinine and duration of surgery had a C-statistic of 0.92, which was improved to 0.93 upon addition of post-surgery TIMP-2 or IGFBP7, with statistically significant cf-NRIs but non-significant IDIs. Post-surgery TIMP-2 and IGFBP predicted 30-day mortality, with C-statistics of 0.74 and 0.80. In conclusion, in elective cardiac surgery patients, pre- and peri-operative clinical variables were highly discriminating about which patients required RRT after surgery. Nonetheless, in elective cardiac surgery patients, urinary TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 improved prediction of RRT and 30-day mortality post-surgery.

Perioperative proADM-change is associated with the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome in critically ill cardiac surgery patients: a prospective cohort study

Aim: Biomarkers of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after cardiac-surgery may help risk-stratification and management. Preoperative single-value proADM increases predictive capacity of scoring-system EuroSCORE. To include the impact of surgery, we aim to assess the predictive value of the perioperative proADM-change on development of ARDS in 40 cardiac-surgery patients. Materials & methods: ProADM was measured in nine sequential blood samples. The Berlin definition of ARDS was used. For data-analyses, a multivariate model of EuroSCORE and perioperative proADM-change, linear mixed models and logistic regression were used. Results: Perioperative proADM-change was associated with ARDS after cardiac-surgery, and it was superior to EuroSCORE. A perioperative proADM-change >1.5 nmol/l could predict ARDS. Conclusion: Predicting post-surgery ARDS with perioperative proADM-change enables clinicians to intensify lung-protective interventions and individualized fluid therapy to minimize secondary injury.