Monthly dynamics and biting behavior of principal onchocerciasis vector (Simulium damnosum s.l.) in endemic area of Southwest Ethiopia

Onchocerciasis transmission status in some endemic communities of Cross River State, Nigeria after two decades of mass drug administration with ivermectin

Onchocerciasis is a parasitic disease transmitted by black flies. Human onchocerciasis is a public health and socioeconomic problem in Nigeria. Its prevalence and morbidity have reduced over the years because of control efforts especially, Mass Drug Administration with ivermectin. The current goal is to eliminate the disease transmission by 2030. Understanding the changes in transmission patterns in Cross River State is critical to elimination of onchocerciasis in Nigeria. This study was designed to determine the transmission dynamics of onchocerciasis in Cross River State after over two decades of mass ivermectin distribution in endemic communities. Agbokim, Aningeje, Ekong Anaku and Orimekpang are four endemic communities from three Local Government Areas of the State selected for this study. Transmission indices such as infectivity rates, biting rates and transmission potentials, parity rates and diurnal biting activities were determined. A total of 15,520 adult female flies were caught on human baits, Agbokim (2831), Aningeje (6209), Ekong Anaku (4364) and Orimekpang (2116). A total of 9488 and 5695 flies were collected during the rainy and dry seasons respectively in the four communities studied. The differences in relative abundance among the communities were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Monthly and seasonal fly numbers varied significantly (P < 0.008). There were differences in diurnal biting activities of flies in this study at different hours of the day and different months. The peak monthly biting rates were 5993 (Agbokim, October), 13,134 (Aningeje, October), 8680 (Ekong Anaku, October) and 6120 (Orimekpang, September) bites/person/month while the lowest monthly biting rates were 400 (Agbokim, November), 2862 (Aningeje, August), 1405 (Ekong Anaku, January) and 0.0 (Orimekpang, November and December) bites/person/month. Differences in biting rates among the study communities were significant (P < 0.001). The peak monthly transmission potential in Aningeje was 160 infective bites/person/month in the month of February while the lowest (except for months with no transmission) was 42 infective bites/person/month in the month of April. All other study sites had no ongoing transmission in this study. Transmission studies showed that there is progress toward transmission interruption especially in 3 out of the four studied areas. Molecular O-150 poolscreen studies is required to confirm the true transmission situation in the areas.

Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination

Background

Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas requiring interventions and to monitor progress. Onchocerca volvulus nodule prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is spatially continuous and heterogeneous, and highly endemic areas may contribute to transmission in areas of low endemicity or vice-versa. Ethiopia is one such onchocerciasis-endemic country with heterogeneous O. volvulus nodule prevalence, and many districts are still unmapped despite their potential for onchocerciasis transmission.

Methodology/Principle findings

A Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted for retrospective pre-intervention nodule prevalence data collected from 916 unique sites and 35,077 people across Ethiopia. We used multiple environmental, socio-demographic, and climate variables to estimate the pre-intervention prevalence of O. volvulus nodules across Ethiopia and to explore their relationship with prevalence. Prevalence was high in southern and northwestern Ethiopia and low in Ethiopia’s central and eastern parts. Distance to the nearest river (RR: 0.9850, 95% BCI: 0.9751–0.995), precipitation seasonality (RR: 0.9837, 95% BCI: 0.9681–0.9995), and flow accumulation (RR: 0.9586, 95% BCI: 0.9321–0.9816) were negatively associated with O. volvulus nodule prevalence, while soil moisture (RR: 1.0218, 95% BCI: 1.0135–1.0302) was positively associated. The model estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of O. volvulus nodules in Ethiopia to be around 6.48 million (95% BCI: 3.53–13.04 million).

Conclusions/Significance

Nodule prevalence distribution was correlated with habitat suitability for vector breeding and associated biting behavior. The modeled pre-intervention prevalence can be used as a guide for determining priorities for elimination mapping in regions of Ethiopia that are currently unmapped, most of which have comparatively low infection prevalence.

Areas with unknown onchocerciasis endemicity may pose a threat to eliminating transmission because they may re-introduce onchocerciasis to areas where interventions have been successful. Additionally, because vectors (and thus Onchocerca volvulus transmission) have specific ecological requirements for growth and development, changes in these ecological factors due to human activities (deforestation, modification of river flows by dam construction, climate change) might change patterns of parasite transmission and endemicity. To estimate the impact of environmental changes, we must first identify ecological factors determining prevalence. We have employed Bayesian geostatistical modeling to create a nationwide O. volvulus nodule prevalence map for Ethiopia based on pre-intervention nodule prevalence data and have explored the effect of environmental variables on nodule prevalence. We estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of nodules and associated uncertainty in previously unmapped areas of Ethiopia to identify areas that need additional data to increase the prediction accuracy. Hydrological variables such as distance to the nearest river, precipitation seasonality, soil moisture, and flow accumulation are associated significantly with O. volvulus nodule prevalence. We show that the spatial distribution of nodule prevalence can be estimated based on ecological data and that predicted prevalence can be used as a guide to prioritize pre-intervention mapping.