Advantages of a Novel Model for Predicting Hepatic Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Carriers Compared with APRI and FIB-4 Scores

Determining optimal ALT cut-off values for predicting significant hepatic histological changes in patients with normal ALT in the grey zone of chronic hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to define gender-specific, optimal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) cut-off values for the prediction of significant liver histological changes (SLHC) in Chinese patients with grey zone (GZ) chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and normal ALT.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, we included 1101 consecutive patients with GZ CHB and normal ALT assigned to training or internal validation cohorts. We included an independent cohort of 842 patients for external validation. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, smoothed curve fitting, and threshold effect analyses to determine optimal ALT cut-off values. Area under the curve (AUC) values were calculated to assess their predictive performance.

RESULTS

A proportion of 79.3% of patients with GZ CHB and normal ALT (≤40 U/L) had SLHC. ROC curve analysis initially identified optimal ALT cut-off values of 29 U/L (male) and 22 U/L (female). After smoothed curve fitting and threshold effect analyses, new optimal cut-off values were 27 U/L for males and 24 U/L for females. AUCs for these values were 0.836 (male) and 0.833 (female) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.849 (male) and 0.844 (female) in the external validation cohort. The accuracy and discriminative ability of the newly defined ALT cut-off values were greater than those of the current recommendations.

CONCLUSION

This study established novel optimal ALT cut-off values for more precise prediction of SLHC among Chinese patients with GZ CHB and normal ALT levels. This may help identify individuals who will benefit from timely antiviral therapy.

LiveBoost: A GB-based prediction system for liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients in China - A multi-center retrospective study

Background

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of LiveBoost™, a gradient boosting (GB)-based prediction system based on standard biochemical values (AST, ALT, platelet count) and age, in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compare its performance with FIB-4 (fibrosis-4 score) and APRI (the aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index).

Methods

This retrospective trial enrolled 454 participants, including 279 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy and 175 normal controls from 3 centers in China. All participants underwent laboratory blood testing. LiveBoost was constructed using GB and FIB-4 and APRI were calculated from laboratory data.

Results

LiveBoost outperformed APRI and FIB-4 in predicting hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis. The GB model had an AUROC of 0.977 for CHB diagnosis, 0.804 for early and advanced fibrosis, and 0.836 for non-cirrhosis and cirrhosis, compared to AUROC of 0.554, 0.673 and 0.720 for FIB-4, AUROC of 0.977, 0.652 and 0.654 for APRI.

Conclusions

LiveBoost is a more reliable and cost-effective method than APRI and FIB-4 for assessing liver fibrosis in Chinese patients with CHB.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: Significant histological changes among treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients with normal alanine aminotransferase levels by different criteria

BACKGROUND

The upper limits of normal (ULNs) of ALT are not consistent across the major international guidelines which may affect the eligibility for antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIM

To estimate the proportions of histological changes among treatment-naïve patients with CHB within differently defined ALT ULNs.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase up to May 15th, 2023, to identify studies of treatment-naïve CHB patients with liver biopsies. We pooled proportions of moderate to severe necroinflammation, significant fibrosis, and cirrhosis in those patients within different ALT ULNs by using random-effect models.

RESULTS

We included 23 studies with 4010 participants. Within ALT ULN at 40 IU/L, the pooled proportions of moderate to severe necroinflammation, significant fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 33% (95% CI: 26%-42%), 32% (95% CI: 27%-38%), and 3% (95% CI: 1%-5%), respectively. Within ALT ULN at 30 IU/L for men and 19 IU/L for women, the pooled proportion of significant fibrosis remained at 30% (95% CI: 25%-34%; 432 participants). However, it was 21% (95% CI: 11%-37%; 361 participants) even in those within ALT ULN at 20 IU/L. Subgroup analyses suggested a significantly higher proportion of significant fibrosis among studies with prospective design or enrolled patients' mean age >35 or >40 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant histological changes occurred in approximately 1/3 of treatment-naïve CHB patients within ALT ULN at 40 IU/L, whereas the proportion of significant fibrosis was approximately 1/5 even in those within ALT ULN at 20 IU/L.