NTCP Modeling of Late Effects for Head and Neck Cancer: A Systematic Review

Optimal Timing of Organs-at-risk-sparing Adaptive Radiation Therapy for Head-and-neck Cancer under Re-planning Resource Constraints

Background and Purpose

Prior work on adaptive organ-at-risk (OAR)-sparing radiation therapy has typically reported outcomes based on fixed-number or fixed-interval re-plannings, which represent a one-size-fits-all approach and do not account for the variable progression of individual patients' toxicities. The purpose of this study was to determine the personalized optimal timing for re-planning in adaptive OAR-sparing radiation therapy, considering limited re-planning resources, specifically for patients with head and neck cancer (HNC).

Methods and Materials

A novel Markov decision process (MDP) model was developed to determine optimal timing of re-plannings based on the patient's expected toxicity, characterized by normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), for four toxicities. The MDP parameters were derived from a dataset comprising 52 HNC patients treated at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2007 and 2013. Optimal replanning strategies were obtained when the permissible number of re-plannings throughout the treatment was limited to 1, 2, and 3.

Results

The MDP (optimal) solution recommended re-planning when the difference between planned and actual NTCPs (ΔNTCP) was greater than or equal to 1%, 2%, 2%, and 4% at treatment fractions 10, 15, 20, and 25, respectively, exhibiting a temporally increasing pattern. The ΔNTCP thresholds remained constant across the number of re-planning allowances (1, 2, and 3).

Conclusion

The MDP model determines the optimal timing for implementing patient-specific adaptive re-planning. This approach incorporates ΔNTCP thresholds and considers varying total re-plannings. The methods are versatile and applicable across cancer types, institutional settings, and different OARs and NTCP models.

Artificial intelligence for response prediction and personalisation in radiation oncology

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems may personalise radiotherapy by assessing complex and multifaceted patient data and predicting tumour and normal tissue responses to radiotherapy. Here we describe three distinct generations of AI systems, namely personalised radiotherapy based on pretreatment data, response-driven radiotherapy and dynamically optimised radiotherapy. Finally, we discuss the main challenges in clinical translation of AI systems for radiotherapy personalisation.

Cluster-Based Toxicity Estimation of Osteoradionecrosis Via Unsupervised Machine Learning: Moving Beyond Single Dose-Parameter Normal Tissue Complication Probability by Using Whole Dose-Volume Histograms for Cohort Risk Stratification

PURPOSE

Given the limitations of extant models for normal tissue complication probability estimation for osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the mandible, the purpose of this study was to enrich statistical inference by exploiting structural properties of data and provide a clinically reliable model for ORN risk evaluation through an unsupervised-learning analysis that incorporates the whole radiation dose distribution on the mandible.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The analysis was conducted on retrospective data of 1259 patients with head and neck cancer treated at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2005 and 2015. During a minimum 12-month posttherapy follow-up period, 173 patients in this cohort (13.7%) developed ORN (grades I to IV). The (structural) clusters of mandibular dose-volume histograms (DVHs) for these patients were identified using the K-means clustering method. A soft-margin support vector machine was used to determine the cluster borders and partition the dose-volume space. The risk of ORN for each dose-volume region was calculated based on incidence rates and other clinical risk factors.

RESULTS

The K-means clustering method identified 6 clusters among the DVHs. Based on the first 5 clusters, the dose-volume space was partitioned by the soft-margin support vector machine into distinct regions with different risk indices. The sixth cluster entirely overlapped with the others; the region of this cluster was determined by its envelopes. For each region, the ORN incidence rate per preradiation dental extraction status (a statistically significant, nondose related risk factor for ORN) was reported as the corresponding risk index.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents an unsupervised-learning analysis of a large-scale data set to evaluate the risk of mandibular ORN among patients with head and neck cancer. The results provide a visual risk-assessment tool for ORN (based on the whole DVH and preradiation dental extraction status) as well as a range of constraints for dose optimization under different risk levels.

Dosimetric and NTCP analyses for selecting parotid gland cancer patients for proton therapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE

To perform a dosimetric and a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) comparison between intensity modulated proton therapy and photon volumetric modulated arc therapy in a cohort of patients with parotid gland cancers in a post-operative or radical setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From May 2011 to September 2021, 37 parotid gland cancers patients treated at two institutions were eligible. Inclusion criteria were as follows: patients aged ⩾ 18 years, diagnosis of parotid gland cancers candidate for postoperative radiotherapy or definitive radiotherapy, presence of written informed consent for the use of anonymous data for research purposes. Organs at risk (OARs) were retrospectively contoured. Target coverage goal was defined as D95 > 98%. Six NTCP models were selected. NTCP profiles were calculated for each patient using an internally-developed Python script in RayStation TPS. Average differences in NTCP between photon and proton plans were tested for significance with a two-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test.

RESULTS

Seventy-four plans were generated. A lower Dmean to the majority of organs at risk (inner ear, cochlea, oral cavity, pharyngeal constrictor muscles, contralateral parotid and submandibular gland) was obtained with intensity modulated proton therapy vs volumetric modulated arc therapy with statistical significance (p < .05). Ten (27%) patients had a difference in NTCP (photon vs proton plans) greater than 10% for hearing loss and tinnitus: among them, seven qualified for both endpoints, two patients for hearing loss only, and one for tinnitus.

CONCLUSIONS

In the current study, nearly one-third of patients resulted eligible for proton therapy and they were the most likely to benefit in terms of prevention of hearing loss and tinnitus.

Post-operative intensity-modulated vs 3D conformal radiotherapy after conservative surgery for laryngeal tumours of the supraglottic region: a dosimetric analysis on 20 patients

Objective

To perform a dosimetric comparison between intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and 3D conformal radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced (stage III and IV) tumours of the supraglottic region treated with conservative surgery and post-operative radiotherapy.

Methods

An in-silico plan using a 3D conformal shrinking field technique was retrospectively produced for 20 patients and compared with actually delivered IMRT plans. Eighteen structures (arytenoids, constrictor muscles, base of tongue, floor of mouth, pharyngeal axis, oral cavity, submandibular glands and muscles of the swallowing functional units [SFU]) were considered.

Results

IMRT allowed a reduction of maximum and mean doses to 9 and 14 structures, respectively (p < .05).

Conclusions

IMRT achieved a reduction of unnecessary dose to the remnant larynx and the majority of surrounding SFUs. Further prospective analyses and correlations with functional clinical outcomes are required to confirm these dosimetric findings.

The role of the soft palate dose regarding normal tissue toxicities in older adults with head and neck cancer undergoing definitive radiotherapy

PURPOSE

The number of older adults with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is continuously increasing. Older HNSCC patients may be more vulnerable to radiotherapy-related toxicities, so that extrapolation of available normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models to this population may not be appropriate. Hence, we aimed to investigate the correlation between organ at risk (OAR) doses and chronic toxicities in older patients with HNSCC undergoing definitive radiotherapy.

METHODS

Patients treated with definitive radiotherapy, either alone or with concomitant systemic treatment, between 2009 and 2019 in a large tertiary cancer center were eligible for this analysis. OARs were contoured based on international consensus guidelines, and EQD2 doses using α/ß values of 3 Gy for late effects were calculated based on the radiation treatment plans. Treatment-related toxicities were graded according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0. Logistic regression analyses were carried out, and NTCP models were developed and internally validated using the bootstrapping method.

RESULTS

A total of 180 patients with a median age of 73 years fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Seventy-three patients developed chronic moderate xerostomia (grade 2), 34 moderate dysgeusia (grade 2), and 59 moderate-to-severe (grade 2-3) dysphagia after definitive radiotherapy. The soft palate dose was significantly associated with all analyzed toxicities (xerostomia: OR = 1.028, dysgeusia: OR = 1.022, dysphagia: OR = 1.027) in the multivariable regression. The superior pharyngeal constrictor muscle was also significantly related to chronic dysphagia (OR = 1.030). Consecutively developed and internally validated NTCP models were predictive for the analyzed toxicities (optimism-corrected AUCs after bootstrapping: AUCxerostomia=0.64, AUCdysgeusia=0.60, AUCdysphagia=0.64).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that the dose to the soft palate is associated with chronic moderate xerostomia, moderate dysgeusia and moderate-to-severe dysphagia in older HNSCC patients undergoing definitive radiotherapy. If validated in external studies, efforts should be undertaken to reduce the soft palate dose in these patients.

Head and Neck Low Grade Chondrosarcoma-A Rare Entity

Chondrosarcoma represents approximately 0.1% of all neoplasms of the head and neck and is considered a rare disease with a relatively good prognosis. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is estimated at 70-80%, being considered a disease with a low growth rate. Approximately 13% of all cases of chondrosarcoma are located in the region of the head and neck. We present the case of a 30-year-old patient without a medical history who reported dysphagia, swallowing difficulty, neck mass sensation and dysphonia that started insidiously after an upper respiratory tract infection. Subsequently, the patient was diagnosed with a low-grade glosso-epiglottic region chondrosarcoma and was multimodally treated with surgery followed by chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The radiation treatment was delivered with a Rokus M40 former Soviet Union cobalt machine without any image guidance capabilities. The inability to obtain resection margin information justified an aggressive adjuvant treatment with chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The early loss from the oncological record without recurrence of the disease could be associated in this case with the consequence of a major complication, of which we could assume an aspiration pneumonia secondary to a dysphagia associated with an aggressive multidisciplinary treatment. Large tumor size and positive resection margins (R1 resection) are risk factors that support an intensive adjuvant approach in order to reduce the risk of recurrence, but the low grade of tumor associated with a lower risk of recurrence as well as the adverse events (AE) of adjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy justify a more reserved therapeutic approach. Taking into account the longer life expectancy of these patients, it is recommended to use a more conformal irradiation technique in order to reduce doses to radiosensitive structures as well as to omit elective neck irradiation, taking into account the lower risk of lymph node involvement. The lack of guidelines, which include very rare tumors including low grade chondrosarcoma of the head and neck, makes a unified approach difficult, but the data presented in case reports could contribute to choosing the regimen that offers the best therapeutic ratio.

Prediction of Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) After Radiation Therapy Using Imaging and Molecular Biomarkers and Multivariate Modelling

The aim of this study was to design a predictive radiobiological model of normal brain tissue in low-grade glioma following radiotherapy based on imaging and molecular biomarkers. Fifteen patients with primary brain tumors prospectively participated in this study and underwent radiation therapy. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was obtained from the patients, including T1- and T2-weighted imaging and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and a generalized equivalent dose (gEUD) was calculated. The radiobiological model of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) was performed using the variables gEUD; axial diffusivity (AD) and radial diffusivity (RD) of the corpus callosum; and serum protein S100B by univariate and multivariate logistic regression XLIIIrd Sir Peter Freyer Memorial Lecture and Surgical Symposium (2018). Changes in AD, RD, and S100B from baseline up to the 6 months after treatment had an increasing trend and were significant in some time points (P-value < 0.05). The model resulting from RD changes in the 6 months after treatment was significantly more predictable of necrosis than other univariate models. The bivariate model combining RD changes in Gy40 dose-volume and gEUD, as well as the trivariate model obtained using gEUD, RD, and S100B, had a higher predictive value among multivariate models at the sixth month of the treatment. Changes in RD diffusion indices and in serum protein S100B value were used in the early-delayed stage as reliable biomarkers for predicting late-delayed damage (necrosis) caused by radiation in the corpus callosum. Current findings could pave the way for intervention therapies to delay the severity of damage to white matter structures, minimize cognitive impairment, and improve the quality of life of patients with low-grade glioma.

Cluster-Based Toxicity Estimation of Osteoradionecrosis via Unsupervised Machine Learning: Moving Beyond Single Dose-Parameter Normal Tissue Complication Probability by Using Whole Dose-Volume Histograms for Cohort Risk Stratification

Purpose

Given the limitations of extant models for normal tissue complication probability estimation for osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the mandible, the purpose of this study was to enrich statistical inference by exploiting structural properties of data and provide a clinically reliable model for ORN risk evaluation through an unsupervised-learning analysis.

Materials and Methods

The analysis was conducted on retrospective data of 1,259 head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2005 and 2015. The (structural) clusters of mandibular dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were identified through the K-means clustering method. A soft-margin support vector machine (SVM) was used to determine the cluster borders and partition the dose-volume space. The risk of ORN for each dose-volume region was calculated based on the clinical risk factors and incidence rates.

Results

The K-means clustering method identified six clusters among the DVHs. Based on the first five clusters, the dose-volume space was partitioned almost perfectly by the soft-margin SVM into distinct regions with different risk indices. The sixth cluster overlapped the others entirely; the region of this cluster was determined by its envelops. These regions and the associated risk indices provide a range of constraints for dose optimization under different risk levels.

Conclusion

This study presents an unsupervised-learning analysis of a large-scale data set to evaluate the risk of mandibular ORN among HNC patients. The results provide a visual risk-assessment tool (based on the whole DVH) and a spectrum of dose constraints for radiation planning.

Proton Radiotherapy for Skull-Base Malignancies

Proton therapy (PT) is a form of highly conformal external-beam radiotherapy used to mitigate acute and late effects following radiotherapy. Indications for treatment include both benign and malignant skull-base and central nervous system pathologies. Studies have demonstrated that PT shows promising results in minimizing neurocognitive decline and reducing second malignancies with low rates of central nervous system necrosis. Future directions and advances in biologic optimization may provide additional benefits beyond the physical properties of particle dosimetry.

The relation between prediction model performance measures and patient selection outcomes for proton therapy in head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND

Normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) models predict complication risk in patients receiving radiotherapy, considering radiation dose to healthy tissues, and are used to select patients for proton therapy, based on their expected reduction in risk after proton therapy versus photon radiotherapy (ΔNTCP). Recommended model evaluation measures include area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), overall calibration (CITL), and calibration slope (CS), whose precise relation to patient selection is still unclear. We investigated how each measure relates to patient selection outcomes.

METHODS

The model validation and consequent patient selection process was simulated within empirical head and neck cancer patient data. By manipulating performance measures independently via model perturbations, the relation between model performance and patient selection was studied.

RESULTS

Small reductions in AUC (-0.02) yielded mean changes in ΔNTCP between 0.9-3.2 %, and single-model patient selection differences between 2-19 %. Deviations (-0.2 or +0.2) in CITL or CS yielded mean changes in ΔNTCP between 0.3-1.4 %, and single-model patient selection differences between 1-10 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Each measure independently impacts ΔNTCP and patient selection and should thus be assessed in a representative sufficiently large external sample. Our suggested practical model selection approach is considering the model with the highest AUC, and recalibrating it if needed.

MR-Guided Adaptive Radiotherapy for OAR Sparing in Head and Neck Cancers

Simple Summary

Normal tissue toxicities in head and neck cancer persist as a cause of decreased quality of life and are associated with poorer treatment outcomes. The aim of this article is to review organ at risk (OAR) sparing approaches available in MR-guided adaptive radiotherapy and present future developments which hope to improve treatment outcomes. Increasing the spatial conformity of dose distributions in radiotherapy is an important first step in reducing normal tissue toxicities, and MR-guided treatment devices presents a new opportunity to use biological information to drive treatment decisions on a personalized basis.

Abstract

MR-linac devices offer the potential for advancements in radiotherapy (RT) treatment of head and neck cancer (HNC) by using daily MR imaging performed at the time and setup of treatment delivery. This article aims to present a review of current adaptive RT (ART) methods on MR-Linac devices directed towards the sparing of organs at risk (OAR) and a view of future adaptive techniques seeking to improve the therapeutic ratio. This ratio expresses the relationship between the probability of tumor control and the probability of normal tissue damage and is thus an important conceptual metric of success in the sparing of OARs. Increasing spatial conformity of dose distributions to target volume and OARs is an initial step in achieving therapeutic improvements, followed by the use of imaging and clinical biomarkers to inform the clinical decision-making process in an ART paradigm. Pre-clinical and clinical findings support the incorporation of biomarkers into ART protocols and investment into further research to explore imaging biomarkers by taking advantage of the daily MR imaging workflow. A coherent understanding of this road map for RT in HNC is critical for directing future research efforts related to sparing OARs using image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT).

Proton Radiation Therapy for Nasopharyngeal Cancer Patients: Dosimetric and NTCP Evaluation Supporting Clinical Decision

(1) Background: we proposed an integrated strategy to support clinical allocation of nasopharyngeal patients between proton and photon radiotherapy. (2) Methods: intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans were optimized for 50 consecutive nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and differences in dose and normal tissue complication probability (ΔNTCPx-p) for 16 models were calculated. Patient eligibility for IMPT was assessed using a model-based selection (MBS) strategy following the results for 7/16 models describing the most clinically relevant endpoints, applying a model-specific ΔNTCPx-p threshold (15% to 5% depending on the severity of the complication) and a composite threshold (35%). In addition, a comprehensive toxicity score (CTS) was defined as the weighted sum of all 16 ΔNTCPx-p, where weights follow a clinical rationale. (3) Results: Dose deviations were in favor of IMPT (ΔD_mean ≥ 14% for cord, esophagus, brainstem, and glottic larynx). The risk of toxicity significantly decreased for xerostomia (-12.5%), brain necrosis (-2.3%), mucositis (-3.2%), tinnitus (-8.6%), hypothyroidism (-9.3%), and trismus (-5.4%). There were 40% of the patients that resulted as eligible for IMPT, with a greater advantage for T3-T4 staging. Significantly different CTS were observed in patients qualifying for IMPT. (4) Conclusions: The MBS strategy successfully drives the clinical identification of NPC patients, who are most likely to benefit from IMPT. CTS summarizes well the expected global gain.

Exposure-response modeling improves selection of radiation and radiosensitizer combinations

A central question in drug discovery is how to select drug candidates from a large number of available compounds. This analysis presents a model-based approach for comparing and ranking combinations of radiation and radiosensitizers. The approach is quantitative and based on the previously-derived Tumor Static Exposure (TSE) concept. Combinations of radiation and radiosensitizers are evaluated based on their ability to induce tumor regression relative to toxicity and other potential costs. The approach is presented in the form of a case study where the objective is to find the most promising candidate out of three radiosensitizing agents. Data from a xenograft study is described using a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach and a previously-published tumor model for radiation and radiosensitizing agents. First, the most promising candidate is chosen under the assumption that all compounds are equally toxic. The impact of toxicity in compound selection is then illustrated by assuming that one compound is more toxic than the others, leading to a different choice of candidate.