Early detection of disease outbreaks using the Internet

Conditional adherence after medical recommendation and the attraction of additional information

OBJECTIVE

This study introduces conditional adherence (CA) as the patients' inclination toward additional information sources instead of unconditionally adhering to treatment. The study examined how medical decision-making practices are associated with CA and the intention to turn to various information sources.

METHODS

Scenario survey data (N = 1935) were used to analyse the association between decision-making practices and patients' intentions to seek additional information from either formal or informal sources.

RESULTS

Additional information was preferably acquired from the attending physician without the intention to seek additional information elsewhere. Shared decision-making (SDM) decreased the likelihood of CA and especially the need to consult other formal sources. Other kind of decision-making practices were associated with a higher likelihood of CA. Decisional conflicts from previous medical appointments associated with seeking information from informal sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Turning to additional formal information sources associates with appointments lacking the element of SDM. However, turning to informal information sources is more significantly associated with prior experiences of contradictory treatment recommendations.

IMPLICATIONS

SDM and open communication between the physician and the patient are underscored in the objective of treatment adherence. CA may be prevented by participating patients to decision-making and identifying possible trust issues concerning also prior medical decisions.

Evaluation of the epidemic intelligence from open sources (EIOS) system for the early detection of outbreaks and health emergencies in the African region

INTRODUCTION

Public health today is challenged by a wide array of hazards that threaten humans, often resulting in high rates of morbidity and mortality when they strike. These events should be detected and responded to as early as possible to save lives and minimize their impact. The Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system leverages natural language processing and machine learning techniques for the early detection of public health events from open-source information using an all-hazards approach. In this study, we quantitatively evaluate the performance of the EIOS system for the early detection of outbreaks and health emergencies in the African region.

METHODS

We retrospectively searched the EIOS system to determine if a signal was found on the system for each public health event notified to WHO by the 47 countries in the African region from 2018 to 2023. We computed the proportion of public health event detected by the EIOS system, its sensitivity, harmonic mean, and timeliness. We assessed the association between selected predictors (year of report, hazard type, subregion, source type, and language of source) and early detection of public health events on the EIOS system using a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

We found a detection proportion of 81.0% and a sensitivity of 47.4%, with a harmonic mean of 59.8%. The proportion of events detected steadily increased over the years and sensitivity increased from a baseline of 44.1% in 2018 to 47.3% in 2023. Signals for more than 80.0% of the public health events notified to WHO in 28 countries were detected on the EIOS system. In 22 countries, signals of at least 50% of the public health events were detected early, that is, before official notification from the National Authorities to WHO. The median time between detection on the EIOS system and notification to WHO was zero days. We found that the type of hazard (infectious and zoonotic), the subregion (West and Central Africa), and the type of source (medical and social media) were associated with early detection.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the EIOS system performed well in detecting public health events in the African region early. However, some improvements are needed. We recommend increasing social media and local community radio sources on the EIOS system.

Advancements in portable instruments based on affinity-capture-migration and affinity-capture-separation for use in clinical testing and life science applications

The shift from testing at centralized diagnostic laboratories to remote locations is being driven by the development of point-of-care (POC) instruments and represents a transformative moment in medicine. POC instruments address the need for rapid results that can inform faster therapeutic decisions and interventions. These instruments are especially valuable in the field, such as in an ambulance, or in remote and rural locations. The development of telehealth, enabled by advancements in digital technologies like smartphones and cloud computing, is also aiding in this evolution, allowing medical professionals to provide care remotely, potentially reducing healthcare costs and improving patient longevity. One notable POC device is the lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA), which played a major role in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic due to its ease of use, rapid analysis time, and low cost. However, LFIA tests exhibit relatively low analytical sensitivity and provide semi-quantitative information, indicating either a positive, negative, or inconclusive result, which can be attributed to its one-dimensional format. Immunoaffinity capillary electrophoresis (IACE), on the other hand, offers a two-dimensional format that includes an affinity-capture step of one or more matrix constituents followed by release and electrophoretic separation. The method provides greater analytical sensitivity, and quantitative information, thereby reducing the rate of false positives, false negatives, and inconclusive results. Combining LFIA and IACE technologies can thus provide an effective and economical solution for screening, confirming results, and monitoring patient progress, representing a key strategy in advancing diagnostics in healthcare.

Animal disease surveillance: How to represent textual data for classifying epidemiological information

The value of informal sources in increasing the timeliness of disease outbreak detection and providing detailed epidemiological information in the early warning and preparedness context is recognized. This study evaluates machine learning methods for classifying information from animal disease-related news at a fine-grained level (i.e., epidemiological topic). We compare two textual representations, the bag-of-words method and a distributional approach, i.e., word embeddings. Both representations performed well for binary relevance classification (F-measure of 0.839 and 0.871, respectively). Bag-of-words representation was outperformed by word embedding representation for classifying sentences into fine-grained epidemiological topics (F-measure of 0.745). Our results suggest that the word embedding approach is of interest in the context of low-frequency classes in a specialized domain. However, this representation did not bring significant performance improvements for binary relevance classification, indicating that the textual representation should be adapted to each classification task.

Internet search data with spatiotemporal analysis in infectious disease surveillance: Challenges and perspectives

With the rapid development of the internet, the application of internet search data has been seen as a novel data source to offer timely infectious disease surveillance intelligence. Moreover, the advancements in internet search data, which include rich information at both space and time scales, enable investigators to sufficiently consider the spatiotemporal uncertainty, which can benefit researchers to better monitor infectious diseases and epidemics. In the present study, we present the necessary groundwork and critical appraisal of the use of internet search data and spatiotemporal analysis approaches in infectious disease surveillance by updating the current stage of knowledge on them. The study also provides future directions for researchers to investigate the combination of internet search data with the spatiotemporal analysis in infectious disease surveillance. Internet search data demonstrate a promising potential to offer timely epidemic intelligence, which can be seen as the prerequisite for improving infectious disease surveillance.

Infodemiology for oral health and disease: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Increasing affordability, accessibility and penetration of internet services worldwide, have substantially changed the ways of gathering health-related information. This has led to the origin of concept infodemiology that allows the information to be collected and analysed in near real time. Globally, oral diseases affect nearly 3.5 billion people; thus, volume and profile of oral health searches would help in understanding specific community dental needs and formulation of pertinent oral health strategies.

AIM

To review the published literature on infodemiological aspects of oral health and disease.

METHODOLOGY

This scoping review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Electronic search engines (Google Scholar) and databases (PubMed, Web of science, Scopus) were searched from 2002 onwards.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight articles were included in this review. The infodemiological studies for oral health and disease were mainly used in two domains. Out of 38 articles, 24 accessed the quality of available online information and 15 studied online oral health-related information seeking behaviour.

CONCLUSION

The most commonly searched oral diseases were toothache, oral cancer, dental caries, periodontal disease, oral maxillofacial surgical procedures and paediatric oral diseases. Most of the studies belonged to developed countries and Google was the most researched search engine.

The COVID-19 infodemic in Brazil: trends in Google search data

Background

Since the beginning of the new coronavirus pandemic, there has been much information about the disease and the virus has been in the spotlight, shared and commented upon on the Internet. However, much of this information is infodemics and can interfere with the advancement of the disease and that way that populations act. Thus, Brazil is a country that requires attention, as despite the fact that in almost two years of pandemic it has shown a devastating numbers of deaths and number of cases, and generates false, distorted and malicious news about the pandemic. This work intends to understand the attitudes of the Brazilian population using infodemic queries from the Google Trends search tool and social and income variables.

Methods

Data from infodemic research carried out on Google Trends, between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, with socioeconomic data, such as income and education, were unified in a single database: standardization and exploratory and multivalued techniques based on grouping were used in the study.

Results

In the analysis of the search trend of infodemic terms, it is clear that the categories of Prevention and Beliefs should stand out in Brazil, where there is a diverse culture. It is followed by the COVID-19 Treatment category, with treatments that were not those recommended by the authorities. Income transfer programs and information on socioeconomic variables did not have much impact on infodemic surveys, but it was observed that states where President Bolsonaro has more supporters had researched more infodemic information.

Conclusions

In a country as geographically large as Brazil, it is important that political authorities go to great lengths to disseminate reliable information and monitor the infodemic in the media and on the internet. It was concluded that the denial of the pandemic and the influence of political leaders influenced the search for infodemic information, contributing to a disorganization in the control of the disease and prevention measures.

Enhancing COVID-19 Epidemics Forecasting Accuracy by Combining Real-time and Historical Data from Multiple Internet-based Sources: Analysis of Social Media Data, Online News Articles, and Search Queries

BACKGROUND

The SARS-COV-2 virus and its variants pose extraordinary challenges for public health worldwide. Timely and accurate forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic is the key to sustaining interventions and policies and efficient resources allocation. Internet-based data sources have shown great potential to supplement traditional infectious disease surveillance, and the combination of different Internet-based data sources has shown greater power to enhance epidemic forecasting accuracy than using a single Internet-based data source. However, existing methods incorporating multiple Internet-based data sources only used real-time data from these sources as exogenous inputs but did not take all the historical data into account. Moreover, the predictive power of different Internet-based data sources in providing early warning for COVID-19 outbreaks has not been fully explored.

OBJECTIVE

The main aim of our study is to explore whether combining real-time and historical data from multiple Internet-based sources could improve the COVID-19 forecasting accuracy over the existing baseline models. A secondary aim is to explore the COVID-19 forecasting timeliness based on different Internet-based data sources.

METHODS

We first used core terms and symptoms-related keywords-based methods to extract COVID-19 related Internet-based data from December 21, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The Internet-based data we explored included 90,493,912 online news articles, 37,401,900 microblogs, and all the Baidu search query data during that period. We then proposed an autoregressive model with exogenous inputs, incorporating the real-time and historical data from multiple Internet-based sources. Our proposed model was compared with baseline models, and all the models were tested during the first wave of COVID-19 epidemics in Hubei province and the rest of mainland China separately. We also used the lagged Pearson correlations for the COVID-19 forecasting timeliness analysis.

RESULTS

Our proposed model achieved the highest accuracy in all the five accuracy measures, compared with all the baseline models of both Hubei province and the rest of mainland China. In the mainland China except for Hubei, the COVID-19 epidemics forecasting accuracy differences between our proposed model (model i) and all the other baseline models were statistically significant (model 1, t=-8.722, P<.001; model 2, t=-5.000, P<.001, model 3, t=-1.882, P =0.063, model 4, t=-4.644, P<.001; model 5, t=-4.488, P<.001). In Hubei province, our proposed model's forecasting accuracy improved significantly compared with the baseline model using historical COVID-19 new confirmed case counts only (model 1, t=-1.732, P=0.086). Our results also showed that Internet-based sources could provide a 2-6 days earlier warning for COVID-19 outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach incorporating real-time and historical data from multiple Internet-based sources could improve forecasting accuracy for COVID-19 epidemics and its variants, which may help improve public health agencies' interventions and resources allocation in mitigating and controlling new waves of COVID-19 or other relevant epidemics.

CLINICALTRIAL

Utilizing Big Data From Google Trends to Map Population Depression in the United States: Exploratory Infodemiology Study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of mental health disorders has important theoretical and practical implications for health care service and planning. The recent increase in big data storage and subsequent development of analytical tools suggest that mining search databases may yield important trends on mental health, which can be used to support existing population health studies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to map depression search intent in the United States based on internet-based mental health queries.

METHODS

Weekly data on mental health searches were extracted from Google Trends for an 11-year period (2010-2021) and separated by US state for the following terms: "feeling sad," "depressed," "depression," "empty," "insomnia," "fatigue," "guilty," "feeling guilty," and "suicide." Multivariable regression models were created based on geographic and environmental factors and normalized to the following control terms: "sports," "news," "google," "youtube," "facebook," and "netflix." Heat maps of population depression were generated based on search intent.

RESULTS

Depression search intent grew 67% from January 2010 to March 2021. Depression search intent showed significant seasonal patterns with peak intensity during winter (adjusted P<.001) and early spring months (adjusted P<.001), relative to summer months. Geographic location correlated with depression search intent with states in the Northeast (adjusted P=.01) having higher search intent than states in the South.

CONCLUSIONS

The trends extrapolated from Google Trends successfully correlate with known risk factors for depression, such as seasonality and increasing latitude. These findings suggest that Google Trends may be a valid novel epidemiological tool to map depression prevalence in the United States.

Interest in dentistry in early months of the COVID-19 global pandemic: A Google Trends approach

Background

In early the COVID‐19 pandemic, routine dental treatments have been delayed due to the risk of disease transmission. This delay may lead public to search for information on the Internet for a solution.

Objectives

This study aims to evaluate the public interest in dentistry in the early months of the COVID‐19 global pandemic in the selected countries.

Methods

The daily numbers of new COVID‐19 cases were recorded for China, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. For these countries, Internet search interest of the keyword ‘dentistry’, ‘coronavirus’, ‘COVID‐19’, ‘SARS‐CoV‐2’ and ‘pandemic’ in the early months of the COVID‐19 pandemic was evaluated by using Google Trends data.

Results

In most countries included the public Internet search interest in ‘dentistry+coronavirus+COVID‐19+SARS‐CoV‐2+pandemic’ peaked prior to the peak of new COVID‐19 cases. While a statistically significant positive correlation was observed between the number of new cases and Google Trends data in China, South Korea, Italy and Germany, a statistically significant negative correlation was observed in Turkey.

Conclusion

The peak public interest in dentistry has been prior to the peak of COVID‐19 new cases in most countries. The use of Internet data can provide useful information about pandemics and many other diseases.

Data-driven methods for dengue prediction and surveillance using real-world and Big Data: A systematic review

Background

Traditionally, dengue surveillance is based on case reporting to a central health agency. However, the delay between a case and its notification can limit the system responsiveness. Machine learning methods have been developed to reduce the reporting delays and to predict outbreaks, based on non-traditional and non-clinical data sources. The aim of this systematic review was to identify studies that used real-world data, Big Data and/or machine learning methods to monitor and predict dengue-related outcomes.

Methodology/Principal findings

We performed a search in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and grey literature between January 1, 2000 and August 31, 2020. The review (ID: CRD42020172472) focused on data-driven studies. Reviews, randomized control trials and descriptive studies were not included. Among the 119 studies included, 67% were published between 2016 and 2020, and 39% used at least one novel data stream. The aim of the included studies was to predict a dengue-related outcome (55%), assess the validity of data sources for dengue surveillance (23%), or both (22%). Most studies (60%) used a machine learning approach. Studies on dengue prediction compared different prediction models, or identified significant predictors among several covariates in a model. The most significant predictors were rainfall (43%), temperature (41%), and humidity (25%). The two models with the highest performances were Neural Networks and Decision Trees (52%), followed by Support Vector Machine (17%). We cannot rule out a selection bias in our study because of our two main limitations: we did not include preprints and could not obtain the opinion of other international experts.

Conclusions/Significance

Combining real-world data and Big Data with machine learning methods is a promising approach to improve dengue prediction and monitoring. Future studies should focus on how to better integrate all available data sources and methods to improve the response and dengue management by stakeholders.

Dengue is one of the most important arbovirus infections in the world and its public health, societal and economic burden is increasing. Although the majority of dengue cases are asymptomatic or mild, severe disease forms can lead to death. For this reason, early diagnosis and monitoring of dengue are crucial to decrease mortality. However, most endemic regions still rely on traditional monitoring methods, despite the growing availability of novel data sources and data-driven methods based on real-world data, Big Data, and machine learning algorithms. In this systematic review, we identified and analyzed studies that used these novel approaches for dengue monitoring and/or prediction. We found that novel data streams, such as Internet search engines and social media platforms, and machine learning methods can be successfully used to improve dengue management, but are still vastly ignored in real life. These approaches should be combined with traditional methods to help stakeholders better prepare for each outbreak and improve early responsiveness.

Characteristics of the 100 largest modern zoonotic disease outbreaks

Zoonotic disease outbreaks are an important threat to human health and numerous drivers have been recognized as contributing to their increasing frequency. Identifying and quantifying relationships between drivers of zoonotic disease outbreaks and outbreak severity is critical to developing targeted zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak prevention strategies. However, quantitative studies of outbreak drivers on a global scale are lacking. Attributes of countries such as press freedom, surveillance capabilities and latitude also bias global outbreak data. To illustrate these issues, we review the characteristics of the 100 largest outbreaks in a global dataset (n = 4463 bacterial and viral zoonotic outbreaks), and compare them with 200 randomly chosen background controls. Large outbreaks tended to have more drivers than background outbreaks and were related to large-scale environmental and demographic factors such as changes in vector abundance, human population density, unusual weather conditions and water contamination. Pathogens of large outbreaks were more likely to be viral and vector-borne than background outbreaks. Overall, our case study shows that the characteristics of large zoonotic outbreaks with thousands to millions of cases differ consistently from those of more typical outbreaks. We also discuss the limitations of our work, hoping to pave the way for more comprehensive future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Enhancing Influenza Epidemics Forecasting Accuracy in China with Both Official and Unofficial Online News Articles, 2019-2020

Real-time online data sources have contributed to timely and accurate forecasting of influenza activities while also suffered from instability and linguistic noise. Few previous studies have focused on unofficial online news articles, which are abundant in their numbers, rich in information, and relatively low in noise. This study examined whether monitoring both official and unofficial online news articles can improve influenza activity forecasting accuracy during influenza outbreaks. Data were retrieved from a Chinese commercial online platform and the website of the Chinese National Influenza Center. We modeled weekly fractions of influenza-related online news articles and compared them against weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) rates using autoregression analyses. We retrieved 153,958,695 and 149,822,871 online news articles focusing on the south and north of mainland China separately from 6 October 2019 to 17 May 2020. Our model based on online news articles could significantly improve the forecasting accuracy, compared to other influenza surveillance models based on historical ILI rates (p = 0.002 in the south; p = 0.000 in the north) or adding microblog data as an exogenous input (p = 0.029 in the south; p = 0.000 in the north). Our finding also showed that influenza forecasting based on online news articles could be 1-2 weeks ahead of official ILI surveillance reports. The results revealed that monitoring online news articles could supplement traditional influenza surveillance systems, improve resource allocation, and offer models for surveillance of other emerging diseases.

Influenza and Measles-MMR: two case study of the trend and impact of vaccine-related Twitter posts in Spanish during 2015-2018

Social media, and in particularly Twitter, can be a resource of enormous value to retrieve information about the opinion of general population to vaccines. The increasing popularity of this social media has allowed to use its content to have a clear picture of their users on this topic. In this paper, we perform a study about vaccine-related messages published in Spanish during 2015-2018. More specifically, the paper has focused on two specific diseases: influenza and measles (and MMR as its vaccine). By also including an analysis about the sentiment expressed on the published tweets, we have been able to identify the type of messages that are published on Twitter with respect these two pathologies and their vaccines. Results showed that in contrary on popular opinions, most of the messages published are non-negative. On the other hand, the analysis showed that some messages attracted a huge attention and provoked peaks in the number of published tweets, explaining some changes in the observed trends.

A Novel Epidemiological Approach to Geographically Mapping Population Dry Eye Disease in the United States Through Google Trends

PURPOSE

Our study fills the spatiotemporal gaps in dry eye disease (DED) epidemiology by using Google Trends as a novel epidemiological tool for geographically mapping DED in relation to environmental risk factors.

METHODS

We used Google Trends to extract DED-related queries estimating users' intent from 2004 to 2019 in the United States. We incorporated national climate data to generate heat maps comparing geographic, temporal, and environmental relationships of DED. Multivariable regression models were constructed to generate quadratic forecasts predicting DED and control searches.

RESULTS

Our results illustrated the upward trend, seasonal pattern, environmental influence, and spatial relationship of DED search volume across the US geography. Localized patches of DED interest were visualized in urban areas. There was no significant difference in DED queries across the US census regions (P = 0.3543). Regression model 1 predicted DED queries per state (R2 = 0.61), with the significant predictor being urban population [r = 0.56, adjusted (adj.) P < 0.001, n = 50]; model 2 predicted DED searches over time (R2 = 0.97), with significant predictors being control queries (r = 0.85, adj. P = 0.0169, n = 190), time (r = 0.96, adj. P < 0.001, n = 190), time2 (r = 0.97, adj. P < 0.001, n = 190), and seasonality (winter r = -0.04, adj. P = 0.0196, n = 190; spring r = 0.10, adj. P < 0.001, n = 190).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study used Google Trends as a novel epidemiologic approach to geographically mapping the US DED. Importantly, urban population and seasonality were stronger risk factors of DED searches than temperature, humidity, sunshine, pollution, or region. Our work paves the way for future exploration of geographic information systems for locating DED and other diseases through online population metrics.

Identifying pre-outbreak signals of hand, foot and mouth disease based on landscape dynamic network marker

Background

The high incidence, seasonal pattern and frequent outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) represent a threat for billions of children around the world. Detecting pre-outbreak signals of HFMD facilitates the timely implementation of appropriate control measures. However, real-time prediction of HFMD outbreaks is usually challenging because of its complexity intertwining both biological systems and social systems.

Results

By mining the dynamical information from city networks and horizontal high-dimensional data, we developed the landscape dynamic network marker (L-DNM) method to detect pre-outbreak signals prior to the catastrophic transition into HFMD outbreaks. In addition, we set up multi-level early warnings to achieve the purpose of distinguishing the outbreak scale. Specifically, we collected the historical information of clinic visits caused by HFMD infection between years 2009 and 2018 respectively from public records of Tokyo, Hokkaido, and Osaka, Japan. When applied to the city networks we modelled, our method successfully identified pre-outbreak signals in an average 5 weeks ahead of the HFMD outbreak. Moreover, from the performance comparisons with other methods, it is seen that the L-DNM based system performs better when given only the records of clinic visits.

Conclusions

The study on the dynamical changes of clinic visits in local district networks reveals the dynamic or landscapes of HFMD spread at the network level. Moreover, the results of this study can be used as quantitative references for disease control during the HFMD outbreak seasons.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-020-05709-w.

Identifying Polarity in Tweets from an Imbalanced Dataset about Diseases and Vaccines Using a Meta-Model Based on Machine Learning Techniques

Sentiment analysis is one of the hottest topics in the area of natural language. It has attracted a huge interest from both the scientific and industrial perspective. Identifying the sentiment expressed in a piece of textual information is a challenging task that several commercial tools have tried to address. In our aim of capturing the sentiment expressed in a set of tweets retrieved for a study about vaccines and diseases during the period 2015–2018, we found that some of the main commercial tools did not allow an accurate identification of the sentiment expressed in a tweet. For this reason, we aimed to create a meta-model which used the results of the commercial tools to improve the results of the tools individually. As part of this research, we had to deal with the problem of unbalanced data. This paper presents the main results in creating a metal-model from three commercial tools to the correct identification of sentiment in tweets by using different machine-learning techniques and methods and dealing with the unbalanced data problem.

Oculofacial plastic surgery-related online search trends including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose: The authors aim to characterize oculofacial plastic surgery-related online interest that may be useful in forecasting demand and in designing patient-directed online resources. Methods: The authors queried Google Trends for over 100 oculofacial plastic surgery terms. The main outcome measure was the top 50 oculofacial plastic surgery-related search terms from 2004 to 2020. Secondary outcomes were trends, including seasonality, and search volume changes during the COVID-19 lockdown (March-May 2020) compared to 2018-2019. Terms were analyzed individually and in thematic categories; controlled against generic search terms to account for general internet traffic. Results: Between 2004 and 2020, searches for oculofacial plastic surgery altogether increased, surpassing the rate of internet traffic growth. One thematic category - eyelid malpositions - decreased month-over-month. The top five terms were "face lift," "Bell's palsy," "puffy eyes," "dark circles under eyes," and "chalazion." Eyelid neoplasms searches peaked in summer (R²  = 0.880) whereas cosmetic (R²  = 0.862), symptoms (R ² = 0.907), and surgeries (R ² = 0.140) peaked in winter. Overall, oculofacial-related searches decreased during the COVID-19 lockdown, although thyroid eye disease interest increased compared to 2018 or 2019 (+68.6%; adj. p = .005). Oculofacial plastic surgery interest in 2020 was inversely correlated to "COVID-19" searches (r = -0.76, p < .001). Conclusions: Oculofacial plastic surgery searches increased since 2004 at a pace greater than that ascribed to internet traffic growth. The most searched terms were "face lift," "Bell's palsy," "puffy eyes," "dark circles under eyes," and "chalazion." Almost all oculofacial-related searches decreased during the COVID-19 lockdown.

Accurate spatiotemporal mapping of drug overdose deaths by machine learning of drug-related web-searches

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk for overdose death (ODD), infections with HIV, hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), and noninfectious health conditions. Spatiotemporal identification of PWID communities is essential for developing efficient and cost-effective public health interventions for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with injection-drug use (IDU). Reported ODDs are a strong indicator of the extent of IDU in different geographic regions. However, ODD quantification can take time, with delays in ODD reporting occurring due to a range of factors including death investigation and drug testing. This delayed ODD reporting may affect efficient early interventions for infectious diseases. We present a novel model, Dynamic Overdose Vulnerability Estimator (DOVE), for assessment and spatiotemporal mapping of ODDs in different U.S. jurisdictions. Using Google^® Web-search volumes (i.e., the fraction of all searches that include certain words), we identified a strong association between the reported ODD rates and drug-related search terms for 2004–2017. A machine learning model (Extremely Random Forest) was developed to produce yearly ODD estimates at state and county levels, as well as monthly estimates at state level. Regarding the total number of ODDs per year, DOVE’s error was only 3.52% (Median Absolute Error, MAE) in the United States for 2005–2017. DOVE estimated 66,463 ODDs out of the reported 70,237 (94.48%) during 2017. For that year, the MAE of the individual ODD rates was 4.43%, 7.34%, and 12.75% among yearly estimates for states, yearly estimates for counties, and monthly estimates for states, respectively. These results indicate suitability of the DOVE ODD estimates for dynamic IDU assessment in most states, which may alert for possible increased morbidity and mortality associated with IDU. ODD estimates produced by DOVE offer an opportunity for a spatiotemporal ODD mapping. Timely identification of potential mortality trends among PWID might assist in developing efficient ODD prevention and HBV, HCV, and HIV infection elimination programs by targeting public health interventions to the most vulnerable PWID communities.

What drives disease flows between locations?

Communicable diseases 'flow' between locations. These flows dictate where and when certain communities will be affected. While the prediction of disease flows is essential for the timely intervention of epidemics, few studies have addressed this critical issue. This study predicts disease flows during an epidemic by considering the epidemiological, network, and temporal contextual factors using a deep learning approach. A series of scenario analyses helps identify the effects of these contextual factors on disease flows. Results show that the extended spatial-temporal effect of the epidemiological factors stimulates disease flows. The compound effects of the network factors enhance the transmission efficiency of these flows. Lastly, the temporal effect accelerates the combined effects of epidemiological and network factors on the flows. Findings of this study reveal the intricate nature of disease flows and lay a solid foundation for real-time surveillance of epidemics and pandemics to inform timely interventions for a broad range of communicable diseases.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever Outbreaks: A Worldwide Review, 1990-2018

BACKGROUND

Analyses of the global spatial and temporal distribution of enteric fever outbreaks worldwide are important factors to consider in estimating the disease burden of enteric fever disease burden.

METHODS

We conducted a global literature review of enteric fever outbreak data by systematically using multiple databases from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2018 and classified them by time, place, diagnostic methods, and drug susceptibility, to illustrate outbreak characteristics including spatial and temporal patterns.

RESULTS

There were 180 940 cases in 303 identified outbreaks caused by infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi A or B (S. Paratyphi). The size of outbreak ranged from 1 to 42 564. Fifty-one percent of outbreaks occurred in Asia, 15% in Africa, 14% in Oceania, and the rest in other regions. Forty-six percent of outbreaks specified confirmation by blood culture, and 82 outbreaks reported drug susceptibility, of which 54% had multidrug-resistant pathogens. Paratyphoid outbreaks were less common compared to typhoid (22 vs 281) and more prevalent in Asia than Africa. Risk factors were multifactorial, with contaminated water being the main factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Enteric fever outbreak burden remains high in endemic low- and middle-income countries and, despite its limitations, outbreak data provide valuable contemporary evidence in prioritizing resources, public health policies, and actions. This review highlights geographical locations where urgent attention is needed for enteric fever control and calls for global action to prevent and contain outbreaks.

A New Era of Epidemiology: Digital Epidemiology for Investigating the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

A novel pneumonia-like coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 has swept across China and the world. Public health measures that were effective in previous infection outbreaks (eg, wearing a face mask, quarantining) were implemented in this outbreak. Available multidimensional social network data that take advantage of the recent rapid development of information and communication technologies allow for an exploration of disease spread and control via a modernized epidemiological approach. By using spatiotemporal data and real-time information, we can provide more accurate estimates of disease spread patterns related to human activities and enable more efficient responses to the outbreak. Two real cases during the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the application of emerging technologies and digital data in monitoring human movements related to disease spread. Although the ethical issues related to using digital epidemiology are still under debate, the cases reported in this article may enable the identification of more effective public health measures, as well as future applications of such digitally directed epidemiological approaches in controlling infectious disease outbreaks, which offer an alternative and modern outlook on addressing the long-standing challenges in population health.

Measuring objective and subjective well-being: dimensions and data sources

Well-being is an important value for people’s lives, and it could be considered as an index of societal progress. Researchers have suggested two main approaches for the overall measurement of well-being, the objective and the subjective well-being. Both approaches, as well as their relevant dimensions, have been traditionally captured with surveys. During the last decades, new data sources have been suggested as an alternative or complement to traditional data. This paper aims to present the theoretical background of well-being, by distinguishing between objective and subjective approaches, their relevant dimensions, the new data sources used for their measurement and relevant studies. We also intend to shed light on still barely unexplored dimensions and data sources that could potentially contribute as a key for public policing and social development.

Can Users Search Trends Predict People Scares or Disease Breakout? An Examination of Infectious Skin Diseases in the United States

Background

In health and medicine, people heavily use the Internet to search for information about symptoms, diseases, and treatments. As such, the Internet information can simulate expert medical doctors, pharmacists, and other health care providers.

Aim

This article aims to evaluate a dataset of search terms to determine whether search queries and terms can be used to reliably predict skin disease breakouts. Furthermore, the authors propose and evaluate a model to decide when to declare a particular month as Epidemic at the US national level.

Methods

A Model was designed to distinguish a breakout in skin diseases based on the number of monthly discovered cases. To apply this model, the authors correlated Google Trends of popular search terms with monthly reported Rubella and Measles cases from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Regressions and decision trees were used to determine the impact of different terms to trigger the occurrence of epidemic classes.

Results

Results showed that the volume of search keywords for Rubella and Measles rises when the volume of those reported diseases rises. Results also implied that the overall process was successful and should be repeated with other diseases. Such process can trigger different actions or activities to be taken when a certain month is declared as "Epidemic." Furthermore, this research has shown great interest for vaccination against Measles and Rubella.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that the search queries and keyword trends can be truly reliable to be used for the prediction of disease outbreaks and some other related knowledge extraction applications. Also search-term surveillance can provide an additional tool for infectious disease surveillance. Future research needs to re-apply the model used in this article, and researchers need to question whether characterizing the epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic waves in United States can be done through search queries and keyword trends.

A Multidimensional Model of Public Health Approaches Against COVID-19

COVID-19 is appearing as one of the most fetal disease of the world's history and has caused a global health emergency. Therefore, this study was designed with the aim to address the issue of public response against COVID-19. The literature lacks studies on social aspects of COVID-19. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to investigate its social aspects and suggest a theoretical structural equation model to examine the associations between social media exposure, awareness, and information exchange and preventive behavior and to determine the indirect as well as direct impact of social media exposure on preventive behavior from the viewpoints of awareness and information exchange. The current empirical investigation was held in Pakistan, and the collected survey data from 500 respondents through social media tools were utilized to examine the associations between studied variables as stated in the anticipated study model. The findings of the study indicate that social media exposure has no significant and direct effect on preventive behavior. Social media exposure influences preventive behavior indirectly through awareness and information exchange. In addition, awareness and information exchange have significant and direct effects on preventive behavior. Findings are valuable for health administrators, governments, policymakers, and social scientists, specifically for individuals whose situations are like those in Pakistan. This research validates how social media exposure indirectly effects preventive behavior concerning COVID-19 and explains the paths of effect through awareness or information exchange. To the best of our knowledge, there is no work at present that covers this gap, for this reason the authors propose a new model. The conceptual model offers valuable information for policymakers and practitioners to enhance preventive behavior through the adoption of appropriate awareness strategies and information exchange and social media strategies.

Enterovirus D68 outbreak detection through a syndromic disease epidemiology network

BACKGROUND

In 2014, enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) was responsible for an outbreak of severe respiratory illness in children, with 1,153 EV-D68 cases reported across 49 states. Despite this, there is no commercial assay for its detection in routine clinical care. BioFire® Syndromic Trends (Trend) is an epidemiological network that collects, in near real-time, deidentified. BioFire test results worldwide, including data from the BioFire® Respiratory Panel (RP).

OBJECTIVES

Using the RP version 1.7 (which was not explicitly designed to differentiate EV-D68 from other picornaviruses), we formulate a model, Pathogen Extended Resolution (PER), to distinguish EV-D68 from other human rhinoviruses/enteroviruses (RV/EV) tested for in the panel. Using PER in conjunction with Trend, we survey for historical evidence of EVD68 positivity and demonstrate a method for prospective real-time outbreak monitoring within the network.

STUDY DESIGN

PER incorporates real-time polymerase chain reaction metrics from the RPRV/EV assays. Six institutions in the United States and Europe contributed to the model creation, providing data from 1,619 samples spanning two years, confirmed by EV-D68 gold-standard molecular methods. We estimate outbreak periods by applying PER to over 600,000 historical Trend RP tests since 2014. Additionally, we used PER as a prospective monitoring tool during the 2018 outbreak.

RESULTS

The final PER algorithm demonstrated an overall sensitivity and specificity of 87.1% and 86.1%, respectively, among the gold-standard dataset. During the 2018 outbreak monitoring period, PER alerted the research network of EV-D68 emergence in July. One of the first sites to experience a significant increase, Nationwide Children's Hospital, confirmed the outbreak and implemented EV-D68 testing at the institution in response. Applying PER to the historical Trend dataset to determine rates among RP tests, we find three potential outbreaks with predicted regional EV-D68 rates as high as 37% in 2014, 16% in 2016, and 29% in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Using PER within the Trend network was shown to both accurately predict outbreaks of EV-D68 and to provide timely notifications of its circulation to participating clinical laboratories.

Syndromic surveillance using web data: a systematic review

During the recent years, a lot of debate is taken place about the evolution of Smart Healthcare systems. Particularly, how these systems can help people improve human conditions of health, by taking advantages of the new Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), regarding early prediction and efficient treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic review of the current literature available that focuses on information systems on syndromic surveillance using web data. All published items concern articles, books, reviews, reports, conference announcements, and dissertations. We used a variation of PRISMA Statements methodology to conduct a systematic review. The review identifies the relevant published papers from the year 2004 to 2018, systematically includes and explores them to extract similarities, gaps, and conclusions on the research that has been done so far. The results presented concern the year, the examined disease, the web data source, the geographic location/country, and the data analysis method used. The results show that influenza is the most examined infectious disease. The internet tools most used are Twitter and Google. Regarding the geographical areas explored in the published papers, the most examined country is the United States, since many scientists come from this country. There is a significant growth of articles since 2009. There are also various statistical methods used to correlate the data retrieved from the internet to the data from national authorities. The conclusion of all researches is that the Web can be a useful tool for the detection of serious epidemics and for a creation of a syndromic surveillance system using the Web, since we can predict epidemics from web data before they are officially detected in population. With the advance of ICT, Smart Healthcare can benefit from the monitoring of epidemics and the early prediction of such a system, improving national or international health strategies and policy decision. This can be achieved through the provision of new technology tools to enhance health monitoring systems toward the new innovations of Smart Health or eHealth, even with the emerging technologies of Internet of Things. The challenges and impacts of an electronic system based on internet data include the social, medical, and technological disciplines. These can be further extended to Smart Healthcare, as the data streaming can provide with real-time information, awareness on epidemics and alerts for both patients or medical scientists. Finally, these new systems can help improve the standards of human life.

Concealing Disease: Trade and Travel Barriers and the Timeliness of Outbreak Reporting

Slow outbreak reporting by states is a key challenge to effectively responding to global health emergencies like Zika, Ebola, and H1N1. Current policy focuses on improving domestic outbreak surveillance capacity globally in order to reduce reporting lags. However, governments also face economic and political incentives to conceal outbreaks, and these incentives largely are ignored in policy discussions. In spite of the policy implications for outbreak response, the "capacity" and "will" explanations have not been systematically examined. Analysis of a dataset coding the timeliness of outbreak reporting from 1996-2014 finds evidence that states' unwillingness to report-rather than just their inability-leads to delayed reporting. The findings suggest that though building surveillance capacity is critical, doing so may not be sufficient to reduce reporting lags. Policy aimed at encouraging rapid reporting must also mitigate the associated economic and political costs.

Identifying potential emerging threats through epidemic intelligence activities-looking for the needle in the haystack?

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The manual epidemic intelligence system was quick and accurate.

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All significant alerts were identified first through unofficial sources.

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The system was adaptable and allowed for monitoring of events as they evolved.

Background

Epidemic intelligence (EI) for emerging infections is the process of identifying key information on emerging infectious diseases and specific incidents. Automated web-based infectious disease surveillance technologies are available; however, human input is still needed to review, validate, and interpret these sources. In this study, entries captured by Public Health England’s (PHE) manual event-based EI system were examined to inform future intelligence gathering activities.

Methods

A descriptive analysis of unique events captured in a database between 2013 and 2017 was conducted. The top five diseases in terms of the number of entries were described in depth to determine the effectiveness of PHE’s EI surveillance system compared to other sources.

Results

Between 2013 and 2017, a total of 22 847 unique entries were added to the database. The top three initial and definitive information sources varied considerably by disease. Ebola entries dominated the database, making up 23.7% of the total, followed by Zika (11.8%), Middle East respiratory syndrome (6.7%), cholera (5.5%), and yellow fever and undiagnosed morbidity (both 3.3%). Initial reports of major outbreaks due to the top five disease agents were picked up through the manual system prior to being publicly reported by official sources.

Conclusions

PHE’s manual EI process quickly and accurately detected global public health threats at the earliest stages and allowed for monitoring of events as they evolved.

The potential use of social media and other internet-related data and communications for child maltreatment surveillance and epidemiological research: Scoping review and recommendations

Collecting child maltreatment data is a complicated undertaking for many reasons. As a result, there is an interest by child maltreatment researchers to develop methodologies that allow for the triangulation of data sources. To better understand how social media and internet-based technologies could contribute to these approaches, we conducted a scoping review to provide an overview of social media and internet-based methodologies for health research, to report results of evaluation and validation research on these methods, and to highlight studies with potential relevance to child maltreatment research and surveillance. Many approaches were identified in the broad health literature; however, there has been limited application of these approaches to child maltreatment. The most common use was recruiting participants or engaging existing participants using online methods. From the broad health literature, social media and internet-based approaches to surveillance and epidemiologic research appear promising. Many of the approaches are relatively low cost and easy to implement without extensive infrastructure, but there are also a range of limitations for each method. Several methods have a mixed record of validation and sources of error in estimation are not yet understood or predictable. In addition to the problems relevant to other health outcomes, child maltreatment researchers face additional challenges, including the complex ethical issues associated with both internet-based and child maltreatment research. If these issues are adequately addressed, social media and internet-based technologies may be a promising approach to reducing some of the limitations in existing child maltreatment data.

Detecting early-warning signals of influenza outbreak based on dynamic network marker

The seasonal outbreaks of influenza infection cause globally respiratory illness, or even death in all age groups. Given early‐warning signals preceding the influenza outbreak, timely intervention such as vaccination and isolation management effectively decrease the morbidity. However, it is usually a difficult task to achieve the real‐time prediction of influenza outbreak due to its complexity intertwining both biological systems and social systems. By exploring rich dynamical and high‐dimensional information, our dynamic network marker/biomarker (DNM/DNB) method opens a new way to identify the tipping point prior to the catastrophic transition into an influenza pandemics. In order to detect the early‐warning signals before the influenza outbreak by applying DNM method, the historical information of clinic hospitalization caused by influenza infection between years 2009 and 2016 were extracted and assembled from public records of Tokyo and Hokkaido, Japan. The early‐warning signal, with an average of 4‐week window lead prior to each seasonal outbreak of influenza, was provided by DNM‐based on the hospitalization records, providing an opportunity to apply proactive strategies to prevent or delay the onset of influenza outbreak. Moreover, the study on the dynamical changes of hospitalization in local district networks unveils the influenza transmission dynamics or landscape in network level.

Monitoring public interest toward pertussis outbreaks: an extensive Google Trends-based analysis

OBJECTIVES

Pertussis is a vaccine-preventable disease. Despite this, it remains a major health problem among children in developing countries and in recent years, has re-emerged and has led to considerable outbreaks. Pertussis surveillance is of paramount importance; however, classical monitoring approaches are plagued by some shortcomings, such as considerable time delay and potential underestimation/underreporting of cases.

STUDY DESIGN

This study aims at investigating the possibility of using Google Trends (GT) as an instrument for tracking pertussis outbreaks to see if infodemiology and infoveillance approaches could overcome the previously mentioned issues because they are based on real-time monitoring and tracking of web-related activities.

METHODS

In the present study, GT was mined from inception (01 January 2004) to 31 December 2015 in the different European countries. Pertussis was searched using the 'search topic' strategy. Pertussis-related GT figures were correlated with the number of pertussis cases and deaths retrieved from the European Centre for Disease prevention and Control database.

RESULTS

At the European countries level, correlation between pertussis cases and GT-based search volumes was very large (ranging from 0.94 to 0.97) from 2004 to 2015. When examining each country, however, only a few reached the threshold of statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

GT could be particularly useful in pertussis surveillance and control, provided that the algorithm is better adjusted and refined at the country level.

Global Research on Syndromic Surveillance from 1993 to 2017: Bibliometric Analysis and Visualization

Syndromic Surveillance aims at analyzing medical data to detect clusters of illness or forecast disease outbreaks. Although the research in this field is flourishing in terms of publications, an insight of the global research output has been overlooked. This paper aims at analyzing the global scientific output of the research from 1993 to 2017. To this end, the paper uses bibliometric analysis and visualization to achieve its goal. Particularly, a data processing framework was proposed based on citation datasets collected from Scopus and Clarivate Analytics’ Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC). The bibliometric method and Citespace were used to analyze the institutions, countries, and research areas as well as the current hotspots and trends. The preprocessed dataset includes 14,680 citation records. The analysis uncovered USA, England, Canada, France and Australia as the top five most productive countries publishing about Syndromic Surveillance. On the other hand, at the Pinnacle of academic institutions are the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The reference co-citation analysis uncovered the common research venues and further analysis of the keyword cooccurrence revealed the most trending topics. The findings of this research will help in enriching the field with a comprehensive view of the status and future trends of the research on Syndromic Surveillance.

The Surveillance of Chikungunya Virus in a Temperate Climate: Challenges and Possible Solutions from the Experience of Lazio Region, Italy

CHIKV has become an emerging public health concern in the temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere as a consequenceof the expansion of the endemic areas of its vectors (mainly Aedes aegypti and Aedesalbopictus). In 2017, a new outbreak of CHIKV was detected in Italy with three clusters of autochthonous transmission in the Lazio Region (central Italy), in the cities of Anzio, Rome, and Latina and a secondary cluster in the Calabria Region (south Italy). Given the climate characteristics of Italy, sporadic outbreaks mostly driven by imported cases followed by autochthonous transmission could occur during the summer season. This highlights the importance of a well-designed surveillance system, which should promptly identify autochthonous transmission. The use of a surveillance system integrating different surveillance tools, including entomological surveillance in a one health approach, together with education of the health care professionals should facilitate the detection, response, and control of arboviruses spreading.

Web monitoring of emerging animal infectious diseases integrated in the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System

Since 2013, the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System (in French: Veille Sanitaire Internationale, VSI) has been monitoring signals of the emergence of new and exotic animal infectious diseases worldwide. Once detected, the VSI team verifies the signals and issues early warning reports to French animal health authorities when potential threats to France are detected. To improve detection of signals from online news sources, we designed the Platform for Automated extraction of Disease Information from the web (PADI-web). PADI-web automatically collects, processes and extracts English-language epidemiological information from Google News. The core component of PADI-web is a combined information extraction (IE) method founded on rule-based systems and data mining techniques. The IE approach allows extraction of key information on diseases, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases mentioned in the news. We evaluated the combined method for IE on a dataset of 352 disease-related news reports mentioning the diseases involved, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases. The combined method for IE accurately identified (F-score) 95% of the diseases and hosts, respectively, 85% of the number of cases, 83% of dates and 80% of locations from the disease-related news. We assessed the sensitivity of PADI-web to detect primary outbreaks of four emerging animal infectious diseases notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). From January to June 2016, PADI-web detected signals for 64% of all primary outbreaks of African swine fever, 53% of avian influenza, 25% of bluetongue and 19% of foot-and-mouth disease. PADI-web timely detected primary outbreaks of avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, i.e. they were detected 8 and 3 days before immediate notification to OIE, respectively.

A machine learning method to monitor China's AIDS epidemics with data from Baidu trends

Background

AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China.

Methods

A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method.

Results

Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries.

Conclusions

Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system.

Can Big Data Predict the Rise of Novel Drug Abuse?

Existing novel psychoactive drug (NPD) data are woefully inadequate. This gap is especially critical because NPDs are being developed and introduced at alarming rates and pose significant challenges to law enforcement and health care workers. Scholars in numerous fields have used Internet search query analysis to assess and predict health-related outcomes. Here, we explore the utility of these data for predicting NPD and established drug abuse. Google Trends searches for five novel and two established drugs were correlated with data pulled from the Monitoring the Future (MTF). Google Trends data proved highly correlated with data from MTF for all drugs analyzed. Despite limitations, Google Trends appears to be a promising compliment to existing data, providing real time data that may allow us to predict drug abuse trends and respond more quickly.

A Spatial-Temporal Method to Detect Global Influenza Epidemics Using Heterogeneous Data Collected from the Internet

The 2009 influenza pandemic teaches us how fast the influenza virus could spread globally within a short period of time. To address the challenge of timely global influenza surveillance, this paper presents a spatial-temporal method that incorporates heterogeneous data collected from the Internet to detect influenza epidemics in real time. Specifically, the influenza morbidity data, the influenza-related Google query data and news data, and the international air transportation data are integrated in a multivariate hidden Markov model, which is designed to describe the intrinsic temporal-geographical correlation of influenza transmission for surveillance purpose. Respective models are built for 106 countries and regions in the world. Despite that the WHO morbidity data are not always available for most countries, the proposed method achieves 90.26 to 97.10 percent accuracy on average for real-time detection of global influenza epidemics during the period from January 2005 to December 2015. Moreover, experiment shows that, the proposed method could even predict an influenza epidemic before it occurs with 89.20 percent accuracy on average. Timely international surveillance results may help the authorities to prevent and control the influenza disease at the early stage of a global influenza pandemic.

Detecting European Rabbit ( Oryctolagus cuniculus) Disease Outbreaks by Monitoring Digital Media

Digital media and digital search tools offer simple and effective means to monitor for pathogens and disease outbreaks in target organisms. Using tools such as Rich Site Summary feeds, and Google News and Google Scholar specific key word searches, international digital media were actively monitored from 2012 to 2016 for pathogens and disease outbreaks in the taxonomic order Lagomorpha, with a specific focus on the European rabbit ( Oryctolagus cuniculus). The primary objective was identifying pathogens for assessment as potential new biocontrol agents for Australia's pest populations of the European rabbit. A number of pathogens were detected in digital media reports. Additional benefits arose in the regular provision of case reports and research on myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus that assisted with current research.

An infodemiology study on breast cancer in Iran

Purpose

According to the studies conducted in Iran, the breast cancer is the most frequent type of cancer among women. This study aimed to explore the state of health information supply and demand on breast cancer among Iranian medical researchers and Iranian Web users from 2011 to 2015.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed method research is conducted in this study. In qualitative part, a focus group interview is applied to the users to identify their selected keywords searched for breast cancer in Google. The collected data are analyzed using Open Code software. In quantitative part, data are synthesized using the R software in two parts. First, users’ internet information-seeking behavior (ISB) is analyzed using the Google Trends outputs from 2011 to 2015. Second, the scientific publication behavior of Iranian breast cancer specialists are surveyed using PubMed during the period of the study.

Findings

The results show that the search volume index of preferred keywords on breast cancer has increased from 4,119 in 2011 to 4,772 in 2015. Also, the findings reveal that Iranian scholars had 873 scientific papers on breast cancer in PubMed from 2011 to 2015. There was a significant and positive relationship between Iranian ISB in the Google Trends and SPB of Iranian scholars on breast cancer in PubMed.

Research limitations/implications

This study investigates only the state of health information supply and demand in PubMed and Google Trends and not additional databases often used for medical studies and treatment.

Originality/value

This study provides a road map for health policymakers in Iran to direct the breast cancer studies.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources

OBJECTIVES

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes.

METHODS

Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance.

RESULTS

We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems.

Predicting social response to infectious disease outbreaks from internet-based news streams

Infectious disease outbreaks often have consequences beyond human health, including concern among the population, economic instability, and sometimes violence. A warning system capable of anticipating social disruptions resulting from disease outbreaks is urgently needed to help decision makers prepare appropriately. We designed a system that operates in near real-time to identify and predict social response. Over 150,000 Internet-based news articles related to outbreaks of 16 diseases in 72 countries and territories were provided by HealthMap. These articles were automatically tagged with indicators of the disease activity and population reaction. An anomaly detection algorithm was implemented on the population reaction indicators to identify periods of unusually severe social response. Then a model was developed to predict the probability of these periods of unusually severe social response occurring in the coming week, 2 and 3 weeks. This model exhibited remarkably strong performance for diseases with substantial media coverage. For country-disease pairs with a median of 20 or more articles per year, the onset of social response in the next week was correctly predicted over 60% of the time, and 87% of weeks were correctly predicted. Performance was weaker for diseases with little media coverage, and, for these diseases, the main utility of our system is in identifying social response when it occurs, rather than predicting when it will happen in the future. Overall, the developed near real-time prediction approach is a promising step toward developing predictive models to inform responders of the likely social consequences of disease spread.

Informatics for Precision Medicine and Healthcare

The past decade has witnessed great advances in biomedical informatics. Biomedical informatics is an emerging field of healthcare that aims to translate the laboratory observation into clinical practice. Smart healthcare has also developed rapidly with ubiquitous sensor and communication technologies. It is able to capture the online patient-centric phenotypic variables, thus providing a rich information base for translational biomedical informatics. Biomedical informatics and smart healthcare represent two interrelated disciplines. On one hand, biomedical informatics translates the bench discoveries into bedside, and, on the other hand, it is reciprocally informed by clinical data generated from smart healthcare. In this chapter, we will introduce the major strategies and challenges in the application of biomedical informatics technology in precision medicine and healthcare. We highlight how the informatics technology will promote the precision medicine and therefore promise the improvement of healthcare.