Forecasting Hospitalization and Emergency Department Visit Rates for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. A Time-Series Analysis

Quantifying sustained health system benefits of primary care-based integrated disease management for COPD: a 6-year interrupted time series study

BACKGROUND

Severe exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a trajectory-changing life event for patients and a major contributor to health system costs. This study evaluates the real-world impact of a primary care, integrated disease management (IDM) programme on acute health service utilisation (HSU) in the Canadian health system.

METHODS

Interrupted time series analysis using retrospective health administrative data, comparing monthly HSU event rates 3 years prior to and 3 years following the implementation of COPD IDM. Primary outcomes were COPD-related hospitalisation and emergency department (ED) visits. Secondary outcomes included hospital bed days and all-cause HSU.

RESULTS

There were 2451 participants. COPD-related and all-cause HSU rates increased in the 3 years prior to IDM implementation. With implementation, there was an immediate decrease (month 1) in COPD-related hospitalisation and ED visit rates of -4.6 (95% CI: -7.76 to -1.39) and -6.2 (95% CI: -11.88, -0.48) per 1000 participants per month, respectively, compared with the counterfactual control group. After 12 months, COPD-related hospitalisation rates decreased: -9.1 events per 1000 participants per month (95% CI: -12.72, -5.44) and ED visits -19.0 (95% CI: -25.50, -12.46). This difference nearly doubled by 36 months. All-cause HSU also demonstrated rate reductions at 12 months, hospitalisation was -10.2 events per 1000 participants per month (95% CI: -15.79, -4.44) and ED visits were -30.4 (95% CI: -41.95, -18.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of COPD IDM in a primary care setting was associated with a changed trajectory of COPD-related and all-cause HSU from an increasing year-on-year trend to sustained long-term reductions. This highlights a substantial real-world opportunity that may improve health system performance and patient outcomes.

Timing of follow-up visits after hospital discharge for COPD: Application of a new method

RATIONALE

A common strategy to reduce COPD readmissions is to encourage patient follow-up with a physician within 1 to 2 weeks of discharge, yet evidence confirming its benefit is lacking. We used a new study design called target randomized trial emulation to determine the impact of follow-up visit timing on patient outcomes.

METHODS

All Ontario residents aged 35 or older discharged from a COPD hospitalization were identified using health administrative data and randomly assigned to those who received and did not receive physician visit follow-up by within seven days. They were followed to all-cause emergency department visits, readmissions or death. Targeted randomized trial emulation was used to adjust for differences between the groups. COPD emergency department visits, readmissions or death was also considered.

RESULTS

There were 94,034 patients hospitalized with COPD, of whom 73.5% had a physician visit within 30 days of discharge. Adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause readmission, emergency department visits or death for people with a visit within seven days post discharge was 1.03 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.01-1.05) and remained around 1 for subsequent days; adjusted hazard ratio for the composite COPD events was 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-1.00) and remained significantly lower than 1 for subsequent days.

CONCLUSION

While a physician visit after discharge was found to reduce COPD events, a specific time period when a physician visit was most beneficial was not found. This suggests that follow-up visits should not occur at a predetermined time but be based on factors such as anticipated medical need.

Paramedics Providing Palliative Care at Home: A Retrospective Cohort Study Comparing Symptom Management of Breathlessness and Pain in Cancer Versus Non-Cancer Conditions

Background Palliative care aims to alleviate pain and distressing symptoms, affirm life, and offer support to patients and their caregivers. For many, the expressed preference is to die at home. As a result, there is growing recognition that paramedics can play an integral role at the end of life for symptom relief. Paramedic comfort with symptom management in the palliative care context is suspected, based on past work, to be higher for cancer as opposed to non-cancer life advanced disease. The objective of this study was to explore the paramedic management of patients with cancer and non-cancer advanced disease, using pain and breathlessness as key symptoms. Methods  A retrospective cohort study was conducted. Paramedic electronic patient care records were queried for calls with palliative goals of care between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, in Nova Scotia, Canada, which was the first year of the Paramedics Providing Palliative Care program. A manual chart review of a subgroup of 100 consecutive charts was completed to gain deeper insight. A descriptive analysis was conducted to understand practice variation within this population.  Results The electronic query returned 1909 calls with a palliative approach. A total of 765 (40.1%) had cancer. The most common non-cancer disease category was respiratory. The top chief complaint was respiratory distress in both cancer and non-cancer populations. Medication was administered more often for pain (80%) compared to breathlessness (46.5%). Paramedics were more likely to call Medical Oversight Physicians for pain control advice. Post-treatment pain scores were documented infrequently. In the chart review, symptom management using the patient's own medications occurred in 17% of cases while an additional 5% of cases involved a combination of the patient's medications and paramedic service formulary. Conclusion  The non-cancer population was less likely to have a non-transport outcome. Opportunities for improvement of symptom management were noted for pain and particularly so for breathlessness. Increased comfort with a palliative approach in the non-cancer disease cohort as well as with this key symptom will be a key to the success of the program.

Determining the influence of the primary and specialist network of care on patient and system outcomes among patients with a new diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

Introduction

Care for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is provided by both family physicians (FP) and specialists. Ideally, patients receive comprehensive and coordinated care from this provider team. The objectives for this study were: 1) to describe the family and specialist physician network of care for Ontario patients newly diagnosed with COPD and 2) to determine the associations between selected characteristics of the physician network and unplanned healthcare utilization.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Ontario health administrative data housed at ICES (formerly the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences). Ontario patients, ≥ 35 years, newly diagnosed with COPD were identified between 2005 and 2013. The FP and specialist network of care characteristics were described, and the relationship between selected characteristics (i.e., continuity of care) with unplanned healthcare utilization during the first 5 years after COPD diagnosis were determined in multivariate models.

Results

Our cohort consisted of 450,837 patients, mean age 61.5 (SD 14.6) years. The FP was the predominant provider of care for 86.4% of the patients. Using the Bice-Boxerman’s Continuity of Care Index (COCI), a measure reflecting care across different providers, 227,082 (50.4%) were categorized in a low COCI group based on a median cut-off. In adjusted analyses, patients in the low COCI group were more likely to have a hospital admission (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 2.20,2.22), 30-day readmission (OR = 2.44, 95% CI 2.39, 2.49) and ER visit (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 2.25, 2.29).

Conclusion

Higher indices of continuity of care are associated with reduced unplanned hospital use for patients with COPD. Primary care-based practice models to enhance continuity through coordination and integration of both primary and specialist care have the potential to enhance the health experience for patients with COPD and should be a health service planning priority.

Contemporary perspectives in COPD: Patient burden, the role of gender and trajectories of multimorbidity

An individual's experience of COPD is determined by many factors in addition to the pathological features of chronic bronchitis and emphysema and the symptoms that derive directly from them. Multimorbidity is the norm rather than the exception, so most people with COPD are living with a range of other medical problems which can decrease overall quality of life. COPD is caused by the inhalation of noxious particles or gases, in particular tobacco smoke, but also by early life disadvantage impairing lung development and by occupations where inhaled exposures are common (e.g. industrial, farming and cleaning work). Wealthy people are therefore relatively protected from developing COPD and people who do develop the condition may have reduced resources to cope. COPD is also no longer a condition that predominantly affects men. The prevalence of COPD among women has equalled that of men since 2008 in many high-income countries, due to increased exposure to tobacco, and in low-income countries due to biomass fuels. COPD is one of the leading causes of death in women in the USA, and death rates attributed to COPD in women in some countries are predicted to overtake those of men in the next decade. Many factors contribute to this phenomenon, but in addition to socioeconomic and occupational factors, there is increasing evidence of a higher susceptibility of females to smoking and pollutants. Quality of life is also more significantly impaired in women. Although most medications (bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids) used to treat COPD demonstrate similar trends for exacerbation prevention and lung function improvement in men and women, this is an understudied area and clinical trials frequently have a preponderance of males. A better understanding of gender-based predictors of efficacy of all therapeutic interventions is crucial for comprehensive patient care. There is an urgent need to recognize the increasing burden of COPD in women and to facilitate global improvements in disease prevention and management in this specific population. Many individuals with COPD follow a trajectory of both lung function decline and also multimorbidity. Unfavourable lung function trajectories throughout life have implications for later development of other chronic diseases. An enhanced understanding of the temporal associations underlying the development of coexisting diseases is a crucial first step in unravelling potential common disease pathways. Lessons can be learned from exploring disease trajectories of other NCD as well as multimorbidity development. Further research will be essential to explain how early life risk factors commonly influence trajectories of COPD and other diseases, how different diseases develop in relation to each other in a temporal way and how this ultimately leads to different multimorbidity patterns in COPD. This review integrates new knowledge and ideas pertaining to three broad themes (i) the overall burden of disease in COPD, (ii) an unappreciated high burden in women and (iii) the contrast of COPD trajectories and different multimorbidity patterns with trajectories of other NCD. The underlying pathology of COPD is largely irreversible, but many factors noted in the review are potentially amenable to intervention. Health and social care systems need to ensure that effective treatment is accessible to all people with the condition. Preventive strategies and treatments that alter the course of disease are crucial, particularly for patients with COPD as one of many problems.

Algorithms to identify COPD in health systems with and without access to ICD coding: a systematic review

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Estimation of incidence, prevalence and disease burden through routine insurance data is challenging because of under-diagnosis and under-treatment, particularly for early stage disease in health care systems where outpatient International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnoses are not collected. This poses the question of which criteria are commonly applied to identify COPD patients in claims datasets in the absence of ICD diagnoses, and which information can be used as a substitute. The aim of this systematic review is to summarize previously reported methodological approaches for the identification of COPD patients through routine data and to compile potential criteria for the identification of COPD patients if ICD codes are not available.

Methods

A systematic literature review was performed in Medline via PubMed and Google Scholar from January 2000 through October 2018, followed by a manual review of the included studies by at least two independent raters. Study characteristics and all identifying criteria used in the studies were systematically extracted from the publications, categorized, and compiled in evidence tables.

Results

In total, the systematic search yielded 151 publications. After title and abstract screening, 38 publications were included into the systematic assessment. In these studies, the most frequently used (22/38) criteria set to identify COPD patients included ICD codes, hospitalization, and ambulatory visits. Only four out of 38 studies used methods other than ICD coding. In a significant proportion of studies, the age range of the target population (33/38) and hospitalization (30/38) were provided. Ambulatory data were included in 24, physician claims in 22, and pharmaceutical data in 18 studies. Only five studies used spirometry, two used surgery and one used oxygen therapy.

Conclusions

A variety of different criteria is used for the identification of COPD from routine data. The most promising criteria set in data environments where ambulatory diagnosis codes are lacking is the consideration of additional illness-related information with special attention to pharmacotherapy data. Further health services research should focus on the application of more systematic internal and/or external validation approaches.