Machine-learning Prediction of Hypo- and Hyperglycemia from Electronic Health Records: Algorithm Development and Validation

Background

Acute blood glucose (BG) decompensations (hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia) represent a frequent and significant risk for inpatients and adversely affect patient outcomes and safety. The increasing need for BG management in inpatients poses a high demand on clinical staff and health care systems in addition.

Objective

This study aimed to generate a broadly applicable multiclass classification model for predicting BG decompensation events from patients’ electronic health records to indicate where adjustments in patient monitoring and therapeutic interventions are required. This should allow for taking proactive measures before BG levels are derailed.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients who were hospitalized at a tertiary hospital in Bern, Switzerland. Using patient details and routine data from electronic health records, a multiclass prediction model for BG decompensation events (<3.9 mmol/L [hypoglycemia] or >10, >13.9, or >16.7 mmol/L [representing different degrees of hyperglycemia]) was generated based on a second-level ensemble of gradient-boosted binary trees.

Results

A total of 63,579 hospital admissions of 38,250 patients were included in this study. The multiclass prediction model reached specificities of 93.7%, 98.9%, and 93.9% and sensitivities of 67.1%, 59%, and 63.6% for the main categories of interest, which were nondecompensated cases, hypoglycemia, or hyperglycemia, respectively. The median prediction horizon was 7 hours and 4 hours for hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, respectively.

Conclusions

Electronic health records have the potential to reliably predict all types of BG decompensation. Readily available patient details and routine laboratory data can support the decisions for proactive interventions and thus help to reduce the detrimental health effects of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia.

A Vision of Future Healthcare: Potential Opportunities and Risks of Systems Medicine from a Citizen and Patient Perspective-Results of a Qualitative Study

Advances in (bio)medicine and technological innovations make it possible to combine high-dimensional, heterogeneous health data to better understand causes of diseases and make them usable for predictive, preventive, and precision medicine. This study aimed to determine views on and expectations of “systems medicine” from the perspective of citizens and patients in six focus group interviews, all transcribed verbatim and content analyzed. A future vision of the use of systems medicine in healthcare served as a stimulus for the discussion. The results show that although certain aspects of systems medicine were seen positive (e.g., use of smart technology, digitalization, and networking in healthcare), the perceived risks dominated. The high degree of technification was perceived as emotionally burdensome (e.g., reduction of people to their data, loss of control, dehumanization). The risk-benefit balance for the use of risk-prediction models for disease events and trajectories was rated as rather negative. There were normative and ethical concerns about unwanted data use, discrimination, and restriction of fundamental rights. These concerns and needs of citizens and patients must be addressed in policy frameworks and health policy implementation strategies to reduce negative emotions and attitudes toward systems medicine and to take advantage of its opportunities.

[Respiratory Disease in the Era of Big Data]

One of the key elements of medicine in the second decade of the 21st century is the exponential growth of patient-produced information, due not only to the transition to the digitization of medical records, but also to the emergence of new sources of information and the capacity for analysis and interpretation of existing ones. The amount of medical information is expected to double every 2 years, which means that there will be 50 times more information available in 2020 than in 2011. In this setting, these large amounts of data or «big data» must be properly managed to implement new initiatives that improve the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of patients on the path to personalized medicine.The concept of personalization or precision medicine is of special interest in chronic respiratory disease. In recent years, research in entities such as asthma, COPD, cancer, or SAHS has focused on the identification of genomic, molecular, metabolic, and protein changes (biomarkers). Big data analysis tools can be used to move on from models based on the mean response to treatment, which are suboptimal for most patients, to focus on the individualized response. Part of this journey involves systems medicine, which also integrates clinical and population data to provide a multidimensional view of the disease and help identify causal associations that are usually only evident on big data analysis.