Assessing agreement of repeated binary measurements with an application to the CDC's anthrax vaccine clinical trial

Energy intakes, macronutrient intakes and the percentages of energy from macronutrients with adolescent BMI: results from a 5-year cohort study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Adolescence is a period of life when dietary patterns and nutrient intakes may greatly influence adult fatness. This study assesses the tracking of energy and nutrient intakes of Ho Chi Minh City adolescents over 5 years. It explores the possible relationships between energy and the percentage of energy from macronutrients with BMI.

METHODS

Height, weight, time spent on physical activity, screen time and dietary intakes were collected annually between 2004 and 2009 among 752 junior high school students with a mean age of 11·87 years at baseline. The tracking was investigated using correlation coefficients and weighted kappa statistics (k) for repeated measurements. Mixed effect models were used to investigate the association between energy intakes and percentage energy from macronutrients with BMI.

RESULTS

There were increases in the mean BMI annually, but greater in boys than in girls. Correlation coefficients (0·2 < r < 0·4) between participants' intakes at baseline and 5-year follow-up suggest moderate tracking. Extended kappa values were lowest for energy from carbohydrate (CHO) in both girls and boys (k = 0·18 & 0·24, respectively), and highest for protein in girls (k = 0·47) and fat in boys (k = 0·48). The multilevel models showed the following variables significantly correlated with BMI: CHO, fat, percentage of energy from CHO, fat, time spent for moderate to vigorous physical activity, screen time, age and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The poor to fair tracking observed in this cohort suggests that individual dietary patterns exhibited in the first year are unlikely to predict energy and nutrient intakes in the fifth year.

A preliminary study of intensivist-performed DVT ultrasound screening in trauma ICU patients (APSIT Study)

Background

Multiple screening Duplex ultrasound scans (DUS) are performed in trauma patients at high risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Intensive care physician performed compression ultrasound (IP-CUS) has shown promise as a diagnostic test for DVT in a non-trauma setting. Whether IP-CUS can be used as a screening test in trauma patients is unknown. Our study aimed to assess the agreement between IP-CUS and vascular sonographer performed DUS for proximal lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (PLEDVT) screening in high-risk trauma patients in ICU.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted at the ICU of Alfred Hospital, a major trauma center in Melbourne, Australia, between Feb and Nov 2015. All adult major trauma patients admitted with high risk for DVT were eligible for inclusion. IP-CUS was performed immediately before or after DUS for PLEDVT screening. The paired studies were repeated twice weekly until the DVT diagnosis, death or ICU discharge. Written informed consent from the patient, or person responsible, or procedural authorisation, was obtained. The individuals performing the scans were blinded to the others’ results. The agreement analysis was performed using Cohen’s Kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficient for repeated binary measurements.

Results

During the study period, 117 patients had 193 pairs of scans, and 45 (39%) patients had more than one pair of scans. The median age (IQR) was 47 (28–68) years with 77% males, mean (SD) injury severity score 27.5 (9.53), and a median (IQR) ICU length of stay 7 (3.2–11.6) days. There were 16 cases (13.6%) of PLEDVT with an incidence rate of 2.6 (1.6–4.2) cases per 100 patient-days in ICU. The overall agreement was 96.7% (95% CI 94.15–99.33). The Cohen’s Kappa between the IP-CUS and DUS was 0.77 (95% CI 0.59–0.95), and the intraclass correlation coefficient for repeated binary measures was 0.75 (95% CI 0.67–0.81).

Conclusions

There is a substantial agreement between IP-CUS and DUS for PLEDVT screening in trauma patients in ICU with high risk for DVT. Large multicentre studies are needed to confirm this finding.

Molecular Coronary Plaque Imaging Using 18F-Fluoride

BACKGROUND

Coronary 18F-fluoride positron emission tomography identifies ruptured and high-risk atherosclerotic plaque. The optimal method to identify, to quantify, and to categorize increased coronary 18F-fluoride uptake and determine its reproducibility has yet to be established. This study aimed to optimize the identification, quantification, categorization, and scan-rescan reproducibility of increased 18F-fluoride activity in coronary atherosclerotic plaque.

METHODS

In a prospective observational study, patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease underwent serial 18F-fluoride positron emission tomography. Coronary 18F-fluoride activity was visually assessed, quantified, and categorized with reference to maximal tissue to background ratios. Levels of agreement for both visual and quantitative methods were determined between scans and observers.

RESULTS

Thirty patients (90% male, 20 patients with stable coronary artery disease, and 10 with recent type 1 myocardial infarction) underwent paired serial positron emission tomography-coronary computed tomography angiography imaging within an interval of 12±5 days. A mean of 3.7±1.8 18F-fluoride positive plaques per patient was identified after recent acute coronary syndrome, compared with 2.4±2.3 positive plaques per patient in stable coronary artery disease. The bias in agreement in maximum tissue to background ratio measurements in visually positive plaques was low between observers (mean difference, -0.01; 95% limits of agreement, -0.32 to 0.30) or between scans (mean difference, 0.06; 95% limits of agreement, -0.49 to 0.61). Good agreement in the categorization of focal 18F-fluoride uptake was achieved using visual assessment alone (κ=0.66) and further improved at higher maximum tissue to background ratio values.

CONCLUSIONS

Coronary 18F-fluoride activity is a precise and reproducible metric in the coronary vasculature. The analytical performance of 18F-fluoride is sufficient to assess the prognostic utility of this radiotracer as a noninvasive imaging biomarker of plaque vulnerability.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT02110303 and NCT02278211.

Estimating marginal proportions and intraclass correlations with clustered binary data

A logistic regression with random effects model is commonly applied to analyze clustered binary data, and every cluster is assumed to have a different proportion of success. However, it could be of interest to obtain the proportion of success over clusters (i.e. the marginal proportion of success). Furthermore, the degree of correlation among data of the same cluster (intraclass correlation) is also a relevant concept to assess, but when using logistic regression with random effects it is not possible to get an analytical expression of the estimators for marginal proportion and intraclass correlation. In our paper, we assess and compare approaches using different kinds of approximations: based on the logistic-normal mixed effects model (LN), linear mixed model (LMM), and generalized estimating equations (GEE). The comparisons are completed by using two real data examples and a simulation study. The results show the performance of the approaches strongly depends on the magnitude of the marginal proportion, the intraclass correlation, and the sample size. In general, the reliability of the approaches get worsen with low marginal proportion and large intraclass correlation. LMM and GEE approaches arises as reliable approaches when the sample size is large.

Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte dynamics after pyronaridine-artesunate or artemether-lumefantrine treatment

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-based combinations differ in their impact on gametocyte prevalence and density. This study assessed female and male gametocyte dynamics after treating children with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria with either pyronaridine-artesunate (PA) or artemether-lumefantrine (AL).

METHODS

Kenyan children with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were included and randomly assigned to PA or AL treatment. Filter paper blood samples were collected as a source of RNA for quantitative reverse-transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) and nucleic acid sequence based amplification (QT-NASBA) to detect female gametocytes (targeting Pfs25 mRNA). Male gametocytes were detected by qRT-PCR (targeting PfMGET mRNA). Duration of gametocyte carriage, the female and male gametocyte response and the agreement between qRT-PCR and QT-NASBA were determined.

RESULTS

The mean duration of female gametocyte carriage was significantly longer for PA (4.9 days) than for AL (3.8 days) as estimated by QT-NASBA (P = 0.036), but this difference was less clear when determined by Pfs25 qRT-PCR (4.5 days for PA and 3.7 for AL, P = 0.166). qRT-PCR based female gametocyte prevalence decreased from 100% (75/75) at baseline to 6.06% (4/66) at day 14 in the AL group and from 97.7% (83/85) to 13.9% (11/79) in the PA group. Male gametocyte prevalence decreased from 41.3% (31/75) at baseline to 19.7% (13/66) at day 14 in the AL group and from 35.3% (30/85) to 22.8% (18/79) in the PA group. There was good agreement between Pfs25 qRT-PCR and QT-NASBA female gametocyte prevalence (0.85, 95% CI 0.82-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that female gametocyte clearance may be slightly faster after AL compared to PA. Male gametocytes showed similar post-treatment clearance between study arms. Future studies should further address potential differences between the post-treatment transmission potential after PA compared to AL. Trial registration This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov under NCT02411994. Registration date: 8 April 2015. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02411994?term=pyronaridine-artesunate&cond=Malaria&cntry=KE&rank=1.