Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

Application of InVEST habitat quality module in spatially vulnerability assessment of natural habitats (case study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran)

There has been a growing pressure of human activities, especially road network, on natural habitats of the world, which has led to habitat degradation and loss of ecosystem services. To mitigate the impacts of human activities, appropriate studies quantifying ecosystem services and assessing ecological impacts of road network are essential. The main goal of this study was modeling habitat quality and habitat degradation of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province in the southwestern part of Iran, which is among the most important habitats for wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) classified as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. In this study, we used the habitat quality module of the InVEST software (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs), which was driven from land use/cover data, information on anthropogenic threats, and expert knowledge. We tested the reliability of the habitat quality values by comparing them with the distribution map of wild sheep obtained from the Department of the Environment. Then, to have a more comprehensive assessment of the roads' effects on the natural habitats of this province, considering ecosystem services model, the Spatial Road Disturbance Index (SPROADI) was applied as a landscape index. The results of this study revealed that the east and north eastern parts of the study area which were among the most suitable habitats for wild sheep were highly affected by road network. Overall, findings of our study provided useful information on the spatially explicit distribution of habitat quality and degradation which were a valuable input for conservation planning and enhancing ecosystem services.