Multiple adaptive substitutions during evolution in novel environments

Multiplicative fitness, rapid haplotype discovery, and fitness decay explain evolution of human MHC

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a central component of the vertebrate immune system and hence evolves in the regime of a host-pathogen evolutionary race. The MHC is associated with quantitative traits which directly affect fitness and are subject to selection pressure. The evolution of haplotypes at the MHC HLA (HLA) locus is generally thought to be governed by selection for increased diversity that is manifested in overdominance and/or negative frequency-dependent selection (FDS). However, recently, a model combining purifying selection on haplotypes and balancing selection on alleles has been proposed. We compare the predictions of several population dynamics models of haplotype frequency evolution to the distributions derived from 6.59-million-donor HLA typings from the National Marrow Donor Program registry. We show that models that combine a multiplicative fitness function, extremely high haplotype discovery rates, and exponential fitness decay over time produce the best fit to the data for most of the analyzed populations. In contrast, overdominance is not supported, and population substructure does not explain the observed haplotype frequencies. Furthermore, there is no evidence of negative FDS. Thus, multiplicative fitness, rapid haplotype discovery, and rapid fitness decay appear to be the major factors shaping the HLA haplotype frequency distribution in the human population.

Long-term evolution on complex fitness landscapes when mutation is weak

Understanding evolution on complex fitness landscapes is difficult both because of the large dimensionality of sequence space and the stochasticity inherent to population-genetic processes. Here, I present an integrated suite of mathematical tools for understanding evolution on time-invariant fitness landscapes when mutations occur sufficiently rarely that the population is typically monomorphic and evolution can be modeled as a sequence of well-separated fixation events. The basic intuition behind this suite of tools is that surrounding any particular genotype lies a region of the fitness landscape that is easy to evolve to, while other pieces of the fitness landscape are difficult to evolve to (due to distance, being across a fitness valley, etc.). I propose a rigorous definition for this "dynamical neighborhood" of a genotype which captures several aspects of the distribution of waiting times to evolve from one genotype to another. The neighborhood structure of the landscape as a whole can be summarized as a matrix, and I show how this matrix can be used to approximate the expected waiting time for certain evolutionary events to occur and to provide an intuitive interpretation to existing formal results on the index of dispersion of the molecular clock.

The fitness landscape of the codon space across environments

Fitness landscapes map the relationship between genotypes and fitness. However, most fitness landscape studies ignore the genetic architecture imposed by the codon table and thereby neglect the potential role of synonymous mutations. To quantify the fitness effects of synonymous mutations and their potential impact on adaptation on a fitness landscape, we use a new software based on Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods and re-estimate selection coefficients of all possible codon mutations across 9 amino acid positions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae Hsp90 across 6 environments. We quantify the distribution of fitness effects of synonymous mutations and show that it is dominated by many mutations of small or no effect and few mutations of larger effect. We then compare the shape of the codon fitness landscape across amino acid positions and environments, and quantify how the consideration of synonymous fitness effects changes the evolutionary dynamics on these fitness landscapes. Together these results highlight a possible role of synonymous mutations in adaptation and indicate the potential mis-inference when they are neglected in fitness landscape studies.

Accelerated simulation of evolutionary trajectories in origin-fixation models

We present an accelerated algorithm to forward-simulate origin-fixation models. Our algorithm requires, on average, only about two fitness evaluations per fixed mutation, whereas traditional algorithms require, per one fixed mutation, a number of fitness evaluations of the order of the effective population size, Ne Our accelerated algorithm yields the exact same steady state as the original algorithm but produces a different order of fixed mutations. By comparing several relevant evolutionary metrics, such as the distribution of fixed selection coefficients and the probability of reversion, we find that the two algorithms behave equivalently in many respects. However, the accelerated algorithm yields less variance in fixed selection coefficients. Notably, we are able to recover the expected amount of variance by rescaling population size, and we find a linear relationship between the rescaled population size and the population size used by the original algorithm. Considering the widespread usage of origin-fixation simulations across many areas of evolutionary biology, we introduce our accelerated algorithm as a useful tool for increasing the computational complexity of fitness functions without sacrificing much in terms of accuracy of the evolutionary simulation.

Exploiting the Adaptation Dynamics to Predict the Distribution of Beneficial Fitness Effects

Adaptation of asexual populations is driven by beneficial mutations and therefore the dynamics of this process, besides other factors, depends on the distribution of beneficial fitness effects. It is known that on uncorrelated fitness landscapes, this distribution can only be of three types: truncated, exponential and power law. We performed extensive stochastic simulations to study the adaptation dynamics on rugged fitness landscapes, and identified two quantities that can be used to distinguish the underlying distribution of beneficial fitness effects. The first quantity studied here is the fitness difference between successive mutations that spread in the population, which is found to decrease in the case of truncated distributions, remains nearly a constant for exponentially decaying distributions and increases when the fitness distribution decays as a power law. The second quantity of interest, namely, the rate of change of fitness with time also shows quantitatively different behaviour for different beneficial fitness distributions. The patterns displayed by the two aforementioned quantities are found to hold good for both low and high mutation rates. We discuss how these patterns can be exploited to determine the distribution of beneficial fitness effects in microbial experiments.

Greedy adaptive walks on a correlated fitness landscape

We study adaptation of a haploid asexual population on a fitness landscape defined over binary genotype sequences of length L. We consider greedy adaptive walks in which the population moves to the fittest among all single mutant neighbors of the current genotype until a local fitness maximum is reached. The landscape is of the rough mount Fuji type, which means that the fitness value assigned to a sequence is the sum of a random and a deterministic component. The random components are independent and identically distributed random variables, and the deterministic component varies linearly with the distance to a reference sequence. The deterministic fitness gradient c is a parameter that interpolates between the limits of an uncorrelated random landscape (c=0) and an effectively additive landscape (c→∞). When the random fitness component is chosen from the Gumbel distribution, explicit expressions for the distribution of the number of steps taken by the greedy walk are obtained, and it is shown that the walk length varies non-monotonically with the strength of the fitness gradient when the starting point is sufficiently close to the reference sequence. Asymptotic results for general distributions of the random fitness component are obtained using extreme value theory, and it is found that the walk length attains a non-trivial limit for L→∞, different from its values for c=0 and c=∞, if c is scaled with L in an appropriate combination.

Phase transition in random adaptive walks on correlated fitness landscapes

We study biological evolution on a random fitness landscape where correlations are introduced through a linear fitness gradient of strength c. When selection is strong and mutations rare the dynamics is a directed uphill walk that terminates at a local fitness maximum. We analytically calculate the dependence of the walk length on the genome size L. When the distribution of the random fitness component has an exponential tail, we find a phase transition of the walk length D between a phase at small c, where walks are short (D∼lnL), and a phase at large c, where walks are long (D∼L). For all other distributions only a single phase exists for any c>0. The considered process is equivalent to a zero temperature Metropolis dynamics for the random energy model in an external magnetic field, thus also providing insight into the aging dynamics of spin glasses.

Synthetic biology for the directed evolution of protein biocatalysts: navigating sequence space intelligently

The amino acid sequence of a protein affects both its structure and its function. Thus, the ability to modify the sequence, and hence the structure and activity, of individual proteins in a systematic way, opens up many opportunities, both scientifically and (as we focus on here) for exploitation in biocatalysis. Modern methods of synthetic biology, whereby increasingly large sequences of DNA can be synthesised de novo, allow an unprecedented ability to engineer proteins with novel functions. However, the number of possible proteins is far too large to test individually, so we need means for navigating the 'search space' of possible protein sequences efficiently and reliably in order to find desirable activities and other properties. Enzymologists distinguish binding (Kd) and catalytic (kcat) steps. In a similar way, judicious strategies have blended design (for binding, specificity and active site modelling) with the more empirical methods of classical directed evolution (DE) for improving kcat (where natural evolution rarely seeks the highest values), especially with regard to residues distant from the active site and where the functional linkages underpinning enzyme dynamics are both unknown and hard to predict. Epistasis (where the 'best' amino acid at one site depends on that or those at others) is a notable feature of directed evolution. The aim of this review is to highlight some of the approaches that are being developed to allow us to use directed evolution to improve enzyme properties, often dramatically. We note that directed evolution differs in a number of ways from natural evolution, including in particular the available mechanisms and the likely selection pressures. Thus, we stress the opportunities afforded by techniques that enable one to map sequence to (structure and) activity in silico, as an effective means of modelling and exploring protein landscapes. Because known landscapes may be assessed and reasoned about as a whole, simultaneously, this offers opportunities for protein improvement not readily available to natural evolution on rapid timescales. Intelligent landscape navigation, informed by sequence-activity relationships and coupled to the emerging methods of synthetic biology, offers scope for the development of novel biocatalysts that are both highly active and robust.

Modeling evolution using the probability of fixation: history and implications

Many models of evolution calculate the rate of evolution by multiplying the rate at which new mutations originate within a population by a probability of fixation. Here we review the historical origins, contemporary applications, and evolutionary implications of these "origin-fixation" models, which are widely used in evolutionary genetics, molecular evolution, and phylogenetics. Origin-fixation models were first introduced in 1969, in association with an emerging view of "molecular" evolution. Early origin-fixation models were used to calculate an instantaneous rate of evolution across a large number of independently evolving loci; in the 1980s and 1990s, a second wave of origin-fixation models emerged to address a sequence of fixation events at a single locus. Although origin fixation models have been applied to a broad array of problems in contemporary evolutionary research, their rise in popularity has not been accompanied by an increased appreciation of their restrictive assumptions or their distinctive implications. We argue that origin-fixation models constitute a coherent theory of mutation-limited evolution that contrasts sharply with theories of evolution that rely on the presence of standing genetic variation. A major unsolved question in evolutionary biology is the degree to which these models provide an accurate approximation of evolution in natural populations.

Length of adaptive walk on uncorrelated and correlated fitness landscapes

We consider the adaptation dynamics of an asexual population that walks uphill on a rugged fitness landscape which is endowed with a large number of local fitness peaks. We work in a parameter regime where only those mutants that are a single mutation away are accessible, as a result of which the population eventually gets trapped at a local fitness maximum and the adaptive walk terminates. We study how the number of adaptive steps taken by the population before reaching a local fitness peak depends on the initial fitness of the population, the extreme value distribution of the beneficial mutations, and correlations among the fitnesses. Assuming that the relative fitness difference between successive steps is small, we analytically calculate the average walk length for both uncorrelated and correlated fitnesses in all extreme value domains for a given initial fitness. We present numerical results for the model where the fitness differences can be large and find that the walk length behavior differs from that in the former model in the Fréchet domain of extreme value theory. We also discuss the relevance of our results to microbial experiments.

Adaptation in tunably rugged fitness landscapes: the rough Mount Fuji model

Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie's mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage.

Adaptive walks and distribution of beneficial fitness effects

We study the adaptation dynamics of a maladapted asexual population on rugged fitness landscapes with many local fitness peaks. The distribution of beneficial fitness effects is assumed to belong to one of the three extreme value domains, viz. Weibull, Gumbel, and Fréchet. We work in the strong selection-weak mutation regime in which beneficial mutations fix sequentially, and the population performs an uphill walk on the fitness landscape until a local fitness peak is reached. A striking prediction of our analysis is that the fitness difference between successive steps follows a pattern of diminishing returns in the Weibull domain and accelerating returns in the Fréchet domain, as the initial fitness of the population is increased. These trends are found to be robust with respect to fitness correlations. We believe that this result can be exploited in experiments to determine the extreme value domain of the distribution of beneficial fitness effects. Our work here differs significantly from the previous ones that assume the selection coefficient to be small. On taking large effect mutations into account, we find that the length of the walk shows different qualitative trends from those derived using small selection coefficient approximation.

Quantifying the adaptive potential of an antibiotic resistance enzyme

For a quantitative understanding of the process of adaptation, we need to understand its "raw material," that is, the frequency and fitness effects of beneficial mutations. At present, most empirical evidence suggests an exponential distribution of fitness effects of beneficial mutations, as predicted for Gumbel-domain distributions by extreme value theory. Here, we study the distribution of mutation effects on cefotaxime (Ctx) resistance and fitness of 48 unique beneficial mutations in the bacterial enzyme TEM-1 β-lactamase, which were obtained by screening the products of random mutagenesis for increased Ctx resistance. Our contributions are threefold. First, based on the frequency of unique mutations among more than 300 sequenced isolates and correcting for mutation bias, we conservatively estimate that the total number of first-step mutations that increase Ctx resistance in this enzyme is 87 [95% CI 75-189], or 3.4% of all 2,583 possible base-pair substitutions. Of the 48 mutations, 10 are synonymous and the majority of the 38 non-synonymous mutations occur in the pocket surrounding the catalytic site. Second, we estimate the effects of the mutations on Ctx resistance by determining survival at various Ctx concentrations, and we derive their fitness effects by modeling reproduction and survival as a branching process. Third, we find that the distribution of both measures follows a Fréchet-type distribution characterized by a broad tail of a few exceptionally fit mutants. Such distributions have fundamental evolutionary implications, including an increased predictability of evolution, and may provide a partial explanation for recent observations of striking parallel evolution of antibiotic resistance.