A Coalescent Model for a Sweep of a Unique Standing Variant

Evaluating ARG-estimation methods in the context of estimating population-mean polygenic score histories

Scalable methods for estimating marginal coalescent trees across the genome present new opportunities for studying evolution and have generated considerable excitement, with new methods extending scalability to thousands of samples. Benchmarking of the available methods has revealed general tradeoffs between accuracy and scalability, but performance in downstream applications has not always been easily predictable from general performance measures, suggesting that specific features of the ARG may be important for specific downstream applications of estimated ARGs. To exemplify this point, we benchmark ARG estimation methods with respect to a specific set of methods for estimating the historical time course of a population-mean polygenic score (PGS) using the marginal coalescent trees encoded by the ancestral recombination graph (ARG). Here we examine the performance in simulation of six ARG estimation methods: ARGweaver, RENT+, Relate, tsinfer+tsdate, ARG-Needle/ASMC-clust , and SINGER , using their estimated coalescent trees and examining bias, mean squared error (MSE), confidence interval coverage, and Type I and II error rates of the downstream methods. Although it does not scale to the sample sizes attainable by other new methods, SINGER produced the most accurate estimated PGS histories in many instances, even when Relate, tsinfer+tsdate , and ARG-Needle/ASMC-clust used samples ten times as large as those used by SINGER. In general, the best choice of method depends on the number of samples available and the historical time period of interest. In particular, the unprecedented sample sizes allowed by Relate, tsinfer+tsdate , and ARG-Needle/ASMC-clust are of greatest importance when the recent past is of interest-further back in time, most of the tree has coalesced, and differences in contemporary sample size are less salient.

Across two continents: the genomic basis of environmental adaptation in house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) from the Americas

Parallel clines across environmental gradients can be strong evidence of adaptation. House mice (Mus musculus domesticus) were introduced to the Americas by European colonizers and are now widely distributed from Tierra del Fuego to Alaska. Multiple aspects of climate, such as temperature, vary predictably across latitude in the Americas. Past studies of North American populations across latitudinal gradients provided evidence of environmental adaptation in traits related to body size, metabolism, and behavior and identified candidate genes using selection scans. Here, we investigate genomic signals of environmental adaptation on a second continent, South America, and ask whether there is evidence of parallel adaptation across multiple latitudinal transects in the Americas. We first identified loci across the genome showing signatures of selection related to climatic variation in mice sampled across a latitudinal transect in South America, accounting for neutral population structure. Consistent with previous results, most candidate SNPs were in regulatory regions. Genes containing the most extreme outliers relate to traits such as body weight or size, metabolism, immunity, fat, and development or function of the eye as well as traits associated with the cardiovascular and renal systems. We then combined these results with published results from two transects in North America. While most candidate genes were unique to individual transects, we found significant overlap among candidate genes identified independently in the three transects, providing strong evidence of parallel adaptation and identifying genes that likely underlie recent environmental adaptation in house mice across North and South America.

Robust detection of natural selection using a probabilistic model of tree imbalance

Neutrality tests such as Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's H are standard implements in the population genetics toolbox. One of their most common uses is to scan the genome for signals of natural selection. However, it is well understood that D and H are confounded by other evolutionary forces-in particular, population expansion-that may be unrelated to selection. Because they are not model-based, it is not clear how to deconfound these tests in a principled way. In this article, we derive new likelihood-based methods for detecting natural selection, which are robust to fluctuations in effective population size. At the core of our method is a novel probabilistic model of tree imbalance, which generalizes Kingman's coalescent to allow certain aberrant tree topologies to arise more frequently than is expected under neutrality. We derive a frequency spectrum-based estimator that can be used in place of D, and also extend to the case where genealogies are first estimated. We benchmark our methods on real and simulated data, and provide an open source software implementation.

Polygenic adaptation after a sudden change in environment

Polygenic adaptation is thought to be ubiquitous, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we model this process analytically, in the plausible setting of a highly polygenic, quantitative trait that experiences a sudden shift in the fitness optimum. We show how the mean phenotype changes over time, depending on the effect sizes of loci that contribute to variance in the trait, and characterize the allele dynamics at these loci. Notably, we describe the two phases of the allele dynamics: The first is a rapid phase, in which directional selection introduces small frequency differences between alleles whose effects are aligned with or opposed to the shift, ultimately leading to small differences in their probability of fixation during a second, longer phase, governed by stabilizing selection. As we discuss, key results should hold in more general settings and have important implications for efforts to identify the genetic basis of adaptation in humans and other species.

Sweeps in time: leveraging the joint distribution of branch lengths

Current methods of identifying positively selected regions in the genome are limited in two key ways: the underlying models cannot account for the timing of adaptive events and the comparison between models of selective sweeps and sequence data is generally made via simple summaries of genetic diversity. Here, we develop a tractable method of describing the effect of positive selection on the genealogical histories in the surrounding genome, explicitly modeling both the timing and context of an adaptive event. In addition, our framework allows us to go beyond analyzing polymorphism data via the site frequency spectrum or summaries thereof and instead leverage information contained in patterns of linked variants. Tests on both simulations and a human data example, as well as a comparison to SweepFinder2, show that even with very small sample sizes, our analytic framework has higher power to identify old selective sweeps and to correctly infer both the time and strength of selection. Finally, we derived the marginal distribution of genealogical branch lengths at a locus affected by selection acting at a linked site. This provides a much-needed link between our analytic understanding of the effects of sweeps on sequence variation and recent advances in simulation and heuristic inference procedures that allow researchers to examine the sequence of genealogical histories along the genome.

How Good Are Predictions of the Effects of Selective Sweeps on Levels of Neutral Diversity?

Selective sweeps are thought to play a significant role in shaping patterns of variability across genomes; accurate predictions of their effects are, therefore, important for understanding these patterns. A commonly used model of selective sweeps assumes that alleles sampled at the end of a sweep, and that fail to recombine with wild-type haplotypes during the sweep, coalesce instantaneously, leading to a simple expression for sweep effects on diversity. It is shown here that there can be a significant probability that a pair of alleles sampled at the end of a sweep coalesce during the sweep before a recombination event can occur, reducing their expected coalescent time below that given by the simple approximation. Expressions are derived for the expected reductions in pairwise neutral diversities caused by both single and recurrent sweeps in the presence of such within-sweep coalescence, although the effects of multiple recombination events during a sweep are only treated heuristically. The accuracies of the resulting expressions were checked against the results of simulations. For even moderate ratios of the recombination rate to the selection coefficient, the simple approximation can be substantially inaccurate. The selection model used here can be applied to favorable mutations with arbitrary dominance coefficients, to sex-linked loci with sex-specific selection coefficients, and to inbreeding populations. Using the results from this model, the expected differences between the levels of variability on X chromosomes and autosomes with selection at linked sites are discussed, and compared with data on a population of Drosophila melanogaster.

Genetic Signatures of Evolutionary Rescue by a Selective Sweep

One of the most useful models in population genetics is that of a selective sweep and the consequent hitch-hiking of linked neutral alleles. While variations on this model typically assume constant population size, many instances of strong selection and rapid adaptation in nature may co-occur with complex demography. Here, we extend the hitch-hiking model to evolutionary rescue, where adaptation and demography not only co-occur but are intimately entwined. Our results show how this feedback between demography and evolution determines-and restricts-the genetic signatures of evolutionary rescue, and how these differ from the signatures of sweeps in populations of constant size. In particular, we find rescue to harden sweeps from standing variance or new mutation (but not from migration), reduce genetic diversity both at the selected site and genome-wide, and increase the range of observed Tajima's D values. For a given initial rate of population decline, the feedback between demography and evolution makes all of these differences more dramatic under weaker selection, where bottlenecks are prolonged. Nevertheless, it is likely difficult to infer the co-incident timing of the sweep and bottleneck from these simple signatures, never mind a feedback between them. Temporal samples spanning contemporary rescue events may offer one way forward.

Selective Sweeps Under Dominance and Inbreeding

A major research goal in evolutionary genetics is to uncover loci experiencing positive selection. One approach involves finding 'selective sweeps' patterns, which can either be 'hard sweeps' formed by de novo mutation, or 'soft sweeps' arising from recurrent mutation or existing standing variation. Existing theory generally assumes outcrossing populations, and it is unclear how dominance affects soft sweeps. We consider how arbitrary dominance and inbreeding via self-fertilization affect hard and soft sweep signatures. With increased self-fertilization, they are maintained over longer map distances due to reduced effective recombination and faster beneficial allele fixation times. Dominance can affect sweep patterns in outcrossers if the derived variant originates from either a single novel allele, or from recurrent mutation. These models highlight the challenges in distinguishing hard and soft sweeps, and propose methods to differentiate between scenarios.

The effect of autopolyploidy on population genetic signals of hard sweeps

Searching for population genomic signals left behind by positive selection is a major focus of evolutionary biology, particularly as sequencing technologies develop and costs decline. The effect of the number of chromosome copies (i.e. ploidy) on the manifestation of these signals remains an outstanding question, despite a wide appreciation of ploidy being a fundamental parameter governing numerous biological processes. We clarify the principal forces governing the differential manifestation and persistence of the selection signal by separating the effects of polyploidy on the rates of fixation versus rates of diversity (i.e. mutation and recombination) using coalescent simulations. We explore the major consequences of polyploidy, finding a more localized signal, greater dependence on dominance and longer persistence of the signal following fixation, and discuss what this means for within- and across ploidy inference on the strength and prevalence of selective sweeps. As genomic advances continue to open doors for interrogating natural systems, simulations such as this aid our ability to interpret and compare data across ploidy levels.

Polygenic Adaptation to an Environmental Shift: Temporal Dynamics of Variation Under Gaussian Stabilizing Selection and Additive Effects on a Single Trait

Predictions about the effect of natural selection on patterns of linked neutral variation are largely based on models involving the rapid fixation of unconditionally beneficial mutations. However, when phenotypes adapt to a new optimum trait value, the strength of selection on individual mutations decreases as the population adapts. Here, I use explicit forward simulations of a single trait with additive-effect mutations adapting to an "optimum shift." Detectable "hitchhiking" patterns are only apparent if (i) the optimum shifts are large with respect to equilibrium variation for the trait, (ii) mutation rates to large-effect mutations are low, and (iii) large-effect mutations rapidly increase in frequency and eventually reach fixation, which typically occurs after the population reaches the new optimum. For the parameters simulated here, partial sweeps do not appreciably affect patterns of linked variation, even when the mutations are strongly selected. The contribution of new mutations vs. standing variation to fixation depends on the mutation rate affecting trait values. Given the fixation of a strongly selected variant, patterns of hitchhiking are similar on average for the two classes of sweeps because sweeps from standing variation involving large-effect mutations are rare when the optimum shifts. The distribution of effect sizes of new mutations has little effect on the time to reach the new optimum, but reducing the mutational variance increases the magnitude of hitchhiking patterns. In general, populations reach the new optimum prior to the completion of any sweeps, and the times to fixation are longer for this model than for standard models of directional selection. The long fixation times are due to a combination of declining selection pressures during adaptation and the possibility of interference among weakly selected sites for traits with high mutation rates.

Population genomics perspectives on convergent adaptation

Convergent adaptation is the independent evolution of similar traits conferring a fitness advantage in two or more lineages. Cases of convergent adaptation inform our ideas about the ecological and molecular basis of adaptation. In judging the degree to which putative cases of convergent adaptation provide an independent replication of the process of adaptation, it is necessary to establish the degree to which the evolutionary change is unexpected under null models and to show that selection has repeatedly, independently driven these changes. Here, we discuss the issues that arise from these questions particularly for closely related populations, where gene flow and standing variation add additional layers of complexity. We outline a conceptual framework to guide intuition as to the extent to which evolutionary change represents the independent gain of information owing to selection and show that this is a measure of how surprised we should be by convergence. Additionally, we summarize the ways population and quantitative genetics and genomics may help us address questions related to convergent adaptation, as well as open new questions and avenues of research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Convergent evolution in the genomics era: new insights and directions'.

Shared Molecular Targets Confer Resistance over Short and Long Evolutionary Timescales

Pre-existing and de novo genetic variants can both drive adaptation to environmental changes, but their relative contributions and interplay remain poorly understood. Here we investigated the evolutionary dynamics in drug-treated yeast populations with different levels of pre-existing variation by experimental evolution coupled with time-resolved sequencing and phenotyping. We found a doubling of pre-existing variation alone boosts the adaptation by 64.1% and 51.5% in hydroxyurea and rapamycin, respectively. The causative pre-existing and de novo variants were selected on shared targets: RNR4 in hydroxyurea and TOR1, TOR2 in rapamycin. Interestingly, the pre-existing and de novo TOR variants map to different functional domains and act via distinct mechanisms. The pre-existing TOR variants from two domesticated strains exhibited opposite rapamycin resistance effects, reflecting lineage-specific functional divergence. This study provides a dynamic view on how pre-existing and de novo variants interactively drive adaptation and deepens our understanding of clonally evolving populations.

Detecting Signatures of Positive Selection along Defined Branches of a Population Tree Using LSD

Identifying the genomic basis underlying local adaptation is paramount to evolutionary biology, and bears many applications in the fields of conservation biology, crop, and animal breeding, as well as personalized medicine. Although many approaches have been developed to detect signatures of positive selection within single populations and population pairs, the increasing wealth of high-throughput sequencing data requires improved methods capable of handling multiple, and ideally large number of, populations in a single analysis. In this study, we introduce LSD (levels of exclusively shared differences), a fast and flexible framework to perform genome-wide selection scans, along the internal and external branches of a given population tree. We use forward simulations to demonstrate that LSD can identify branches targeted by positive selection with remarkable sensitivity and specificity. We illustrate a range of potential applications by analyzing data from the 1000 Genomes Project and uncover a list of adaptive candidates accompanying the expansion of anatomically modern humans out of Africa and their spread to Europe.

Reconstructing the History of Polygenic Scores Using Coalescent Trees

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed that many traits are highly polygenic, in that their within-population variance is governed, in part, by small-effect variants at many genetic loci. Standard population-genetic methods for inferring evolutionary history are ill-suited for polygenic traits: when there are many variants of small effect, signatures of natural selection are spread across the genome and are subtle at any one locus. In the last several years, various methods have emerged for detecting the action of natural selection on polygenic scores, sums of genotypes weighted by GWAS effect sizes. However, most existing methods do not reveal the timing or strength of selection. Here, we present a set of methods for estimating the historical time course of a population-mean polygenic score using local coalescent trees at GWAS loci. These time courses are estimated by using coalescent theory to relate the branch lengths of trees to allele-frequency change. The resulting time course can be tested for evidence of natural selection. We present theory and simulations supporting our procedures, as well as estimated time courses of polygenic scores for human height. Because of its grounding in coalescent theory, the framework presented here can be extended to a variety of demographic scenarios, and its usefulness will increase as both GWAS and ancestral-recombination-graph inference continue to progress.

Genetic architecture and selective sweeps after polygenic adaptation to distant trait optima

Understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic adaptation to changing environments is an essential goal of population and quantitative genetics. While technological advances now allow interrogation of genome-wide genotyping data in large panels, our understanding of the process of polygenic adaptation is still limited. To address this limitation, we use extensive forward-time simulation to explore the impacts of variation in demography, trait genetics, and selection on the rate and mode of adaptation and the resulting genetic architecture. We simulate a population adapting to an optimum shift, modeling sequence variation for 20 QTL for each of 12 different demographies for 100 different traits varying in the effect size distribution of new mutations, the strength of stabilizing selection, and the contribution of the genomic background. We then use random forest regression approaches to learn the relative importance of input parameters in determining a number of aspects of the process of adaptation, including the speed of adaptation, the relative frequency of hard sweeps and sweeps from standing variation, or the final genetic architecture of the trait. We find that selective sweeps occur even for traits under relatively weak selection and where the genetic background explains most of the variation. Though most sweeps occur from variation segregating in the ancestral population, new mutations can be important for traits under strong stabilizing selection that undergo a large optimum shift. We also show that population bottlenecks and expansion impact overall genetic variation as well as the relative importance of sweeps from standing variation and the speed with which adaptation can occur. We then compare our results to two traits under selection during maize domestication, showing that our simulations qualitatively recapitulate differences between them. Overall, our results underscore the complex population genetics of individual loci in even relatively simple quantitative trait models, but provide a glimpse into the factors that drive this complexity and the potential of these approaches for understanding polygenic adaptation.

Detection and Classification of Hard and Soft Sweeps from Unphased Genotypes by Multilocus Genotype Identity

Positive natural selection can lead to a decrease in genomic diversity at the selected site and at linked sites, producing a characteristic signature of elevated expected haplotype homozygosity. These selective sweeps can be hard or soft. In the case of a hard selective sweep, a single adaptive haplotype rises to high population frequency, whereas multiple adaptive haplotypes sweep through the population simultaneously in a soft sweep, producing distinct patterns of genetic variation in the vicinity of the selected site. Measures of expected haplotype homozygosity have previously been used to detect sweeps in multiple study systems. However, these methods are formulated for phased haplotype data, typically unavailable for nonmodel organisms, and some may have reduced power to detect soft sweeps due to their increased genetic diversity relative to hard sweeps. To address these limitations, we applied the H12 and H2/H1 statistics proposed in 2015 by Garud et al., which have power to detect both hard and soft sweeps, to unphased multilocus genotypes, denoting them as G12 and G2/G1. G12 (and the more direct expected homozygosity analog to H12, denoted G123) has comparable power to H12 for detecting both hard and soft sweeps. G2/G1 can be used to classify hard and soft sweeps analogously to H2/H1, conditional on a genomic region having high G12 or G123 values. The reason for this power is that, under random mating, the most frequent haplotypes will yield the most frequent multilocus genotypes. Simulations based on parameters compatible with our recent understanding of human demographic history suggest that expected homozygosity methods are best suited for detecting recent sweeps, and increase in power under recent population expansions. Finally, we find candidates for selective sweeps within the 1000 Genomes CEU, YRI, GIH, and CHB populations, which corroborate and complement existing studies.

Repeated Selection of Alternatively Adapted Haplotypes Creates Sweeping Genomic Remodeling in Stickleback

Heterogeneous genetic divergence can accumulate across the genome when populations adapt to different habitats while still exchanging alleles. How long does diversification take and how much of the genome is affected? When divergence occurs in parallel from standing genetic variation, how often are the same haplotypes involved? We explore these questions using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing genotyping data and show that broad-scale genomic repatterning, fueled by copious standing variation, can emerge in just dozens of generations in replicate natural populations of threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus). After the catastrophic 1964 Alaskan earthquake, marine stickleback colonized newly created ponds on seismically uplifted islands. We find that freshwater fish in these young ponds differ from their marine ancestors across the same genomic segments previously shown to have diverged in much older lake populations. Outside of these core divergent regions the genome shows no population structure across the ocean-freshwater divide, consistent with strong local selection acting in alternative environments on stickleback populations still connected by significant gene flow. Reinforcing this inference, a majority of divergent haplotypes that are at high frequency in ponds are detectable in the sea, even across great geographic distances. Building upon previous population genomics work in this model species, our data suggest that a long history of divergent selection and gene flow among stickleback populations in oceanic and freshwater habitats has maintained polymorphisms of alternatively adapted DNA sequences that facilitate parallel evolution.

Estimating Time to the Common Ancestor for a Beneficial Allele

The haplotypes of a beneficial allele carry information about its history that can shed light on its age and the putative cause for its increase in frequency. Specifically, the signature of an allele's age is contained in the pattern of variation that mutation and recombination impose on its haplotypic background. We provide a method to exploit this pattern and infer the time to the common ancestor of a positively selected allele following a rapid increase in frequency. We do so using a hidden Markov model which leverages the length distribution of the shared ancestral haplotype, the accumulation of derived mutations on the ancestral background, and the surrounding background haplotype diversity. Using simulations, we demonstrate how the inclusion of information from both mutation and recombination events increases accuracy relative to approaches that only consider a single type of event. We also show the behavior of the estimator in cases where data do not conform to model assumptions, and provide some diagnostics for assessing and improving inference. Using the method, we analyze population-specific patterns in the 1000 Genomes Project data to estimate the timing of adaptation for several variants which show evidence of recent selection and functional relevance to diet, skin pigmentation, and morphology in humans.

Distinguishing Among Modes of Convergent Adaptation Using Population Genomic Data

Geographically separated populations can convergently adapt to the same selection pressure. Convergent evolution at the level of a gene may arise via three distinct modes. The selected alleles can (1) have multiple independent mutational origins, (2) be shared due to shared ancestral standing variation, or (3) spread throughout subpopulations via gene flow. We present a model-based, statistical approach that utilizes genomic data to detect cases of convergent adaptation at the genetic level, identify the loci involved and distinguish among these modes. To understand the impact of convergent positive selection on neutral diversity at linked loci, we make use of the fact that hitchhiking can be modeled as an increase in the variance in neutral allele frequencies around a selected site within a population. We build on coalescent theory to show how shared hitchhiking events between subpopulations act to increase covariance in allele frequencies between subpopulations at loci near the selected site, and extend this theory under different models of migration and selection on the same standing variation. We incorporate this hitchhiking effect into a multivariate normal model of allele frequencies that also accounts for population structure. Based on this theory, we present a composite-likelihood-based approach that utilizes genomic data to identify loci involved in convergence, and distinguishes among alternate modes of convergent adaptation. We illustrate our method on genome-wide polymorphism data from two distinct cases of convergent adaptation. First, we investigate the adaptation for copper toxicity tolerance in two populations of the common yellow monkey flower, Mimulus guttatus We show that selection has occurred on an allele that has been standing in these populations prior to the onset of copper mining in this region. Lastly, we apply our method to data from four populations of the killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, that show very rapid convergent adaptation for tolerance to industrial pollutants. Here, we identify a single locus at which both independent mutation events and selection on an allele shared via gene flow, either slightly before or during selection, play a role in adaptation across the species' range.

Soft Sweeps Are the Dominant Mode of Adaptation in the Human Genome

The degree to which adaptation in recent human evolution shapes genetic variation remains controversial. This is in part due to the limited evidence in humans for classic "hard selective sweeps", wherein a novel beneficial mutation rapidly sweeps through a population to fixation. However, positive selection may often proceed via "soft sweeps" acting on mutations already present within a population. Here, we examine recent positive selection across six human populations using a powerful machine learning approach that is sensitive to both hard and soft sweeps. We found evidence that soft sweeps are widespread and account for the vast majority of recent human adaptation. Surprisingly, our results also suggest that linked positive selection affects patterns of variation across much of the genome, and may increase the frequencies of deleterious mutations. Our results also reveal insights into the role of sexual selection, cancer risk, and central nervous system development in recent human evolution.

The Evolutionary Interplay between Adaptation and Self-Fertilization

Genome-wide surveys of nucleotide polymorphisms, obtained from next-generation sequencing, have uncovered numerous examples of adaptation in self-fertilizing organisms, especially regarding changes to climate, geography, and reproductive systems. Yet existing models for inferring attributes of adaptive mutations often assume idealized outcrossing populations, which risks mischaracterizing properties of these variants. Recent theoretical work is emphasizing how various aspects of self-fertilization affects adaptation, yet empirical data on these properties are lacking. We review theoretical and empirical studies demonstrating how self-fertilization alters the process of adaptation, illustrated using examples from current sequencing projects. We propose ideas for how future research can more accurately quantify aspects of adaptation in self-fertilizers, including incorporating the effects of standing variation, demographic history, and polygenic adaptation.

Analysis of large-scale next-generation sequencing datasets are finding more examples of adaptive evolution at the genomic level.

Advances in theoretical work has demonstrated how self-fertilisation affects different aspects of adaptation in these organisms, compared to outcrossers.

Current software and statistical methods do not take different mating systems into account, which risks mischaracterising the presence or strength of adaptive mutations from genome scans.

Development of new mathematical and statistical methods that explicitly consider self-fertilization and associated demographic effects will enable researchers to more accurately quantify adaptation in these organisms.

Going global by adapting local: A review of recent human adaptation

The spread of modern humans across the globe has led to genetic adaptations to diverse local environments. Recent developments in genomic technologies, statistical analyses, and expanded sampled populations have led to improved identification and fine-mapping of genetic variants associated with adaptations to regional living conditions and dietary practices. Ongoing efforts in sequencing genomes of indigenous populations, accompanied by the growing availability of "-omics" and ancient DNA data, promises a new era in our understanding of recent human evolution and the origins of variable traits and disease risks.

The genomic landscape of rapid repeated evolutionary adaptation to toxic pollution in wild fish

Atlantic killifish populations have rapidly adapted to normally lethal levels of pollution in four urban estuaries. Through analysis of 384 whole killifish genome sequences and comparative transcriptomics in four pairs of sensitive and tolerant populations, we identify the aryl hydrocarbon receptor-based signaling pathway as a shared target of selection. This suggests evolutionary constraint on adaptive solutions to complex toxicant mixtures at each site. However, distinct molecular variants apparently contribute to adaptive pathway modification among tolerant populations. Selection also targets other toxicity-mediating genes and genes of connected signaling pathways; this indicates complex tolerance phenotypes and potentially compensatory adaptations. Molecular changes are consistent with selection on standing genetic variation. In killifish, high nucleotide diversity has likely been a crucial substrate for selective sweeps to propel rapid adaptation.

A Genomic Map of the Effects of Linked Selection in Drosophila

Natural selection at one site shapes patterns of genetic variation at linked sites. Quantifying the effects of "linked selection" on levels of genetic diversity is key to making reliable inference about demography, building a null model in scans for targets of adaptation, and learning about the dynamics of natural selection. Here, we introduce the first method that jointly infers parameters of distinct modes of linked selection, notably background selection and selective sweeps, from genome-wide diversity data, functional annotations and genetic maps. The central idea is to calculate the probability that a neutral site is polymorphic given local annotations, substitution patterns, and recombination rates. Information is then combined across sites and samples using composite likelihood in order to estimate genome-wide parameters of distinct modes of selection. In addition to parameter estimation, this approach yields a map of the expected neutral diversity levels along the genome. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we apply it to genome-wide resequencing data from 125 lines in Drosophila melanogaster and reliably predict diversity levels at the 1Mb scale. Our results corroborate estimates of a high fraction of beneficial substitutions in proteins and untranslated regions (UTR). They allow us to distinguish between the contribution of sweeps and other modes of selection around amino acid substitutions and to uncover evidence for pervasive sweeps in untranslated regions (UTRs). Our inference further suggests a substantial effect of other modes of linked selection and of adaptation in particular. More generally, we demonstrate that linked selection has had a larger effect in reducing diversity levels and increasing their variance in D. melanogaster than previously appreciated.

Factors influencing the effect size distribution of adaptive substitutions

The distribution of effect sizes of adaptive substitutions has been central to evolutionary biology since the modern synthesis. Early theory proposed that because large-effect mutations have negative pleiotropic consequences, only small-effect mutations contribute to adaptation. More recent theory suggested instead that large-effect mutations could be favoured when populations are far from their adaptive peak. Here we suggest that the distributions of effect sizes are expected to differ among study systems, reflecting the wide variation in evolutionary forces and ecological conditions experienced in nature. These include selection, mutation, genetic drift, gene flow, and other factors such as the degree of pleiotropy, the distance to the phenotypic optimum, whether the optimum is stable or moving, and whether new mutation or standing genetic variation provides the source of adaptive alleles. Our goal is to review how these factors might affect the distribution of effect sizes and to identify new research directions. Until more theory and empirical work is available, we feel that it is premature to make broad generalizations about the effect size distribution of adaptive substitutions important in nature.

Rapid genomic changes in Drosophila melanogaster adapting to desiccation stress in an experimental evolution system

BACKGROUND

Experimental evolution studies, coupled with whole genome resequencing and advances in bioinformatics, have become a powerful tool for exploring how populations respond to selection at the genome-wide level, complementary to genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and linkage mapping experiments as strategies to connect genotype and phenotype. In this experiment, we analyzed genomes of Drosophila melanogaster from lines evolving under long-term directional selection for increased desiccation resistance in comparison with control (no-selection) lines.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that adaptive responses to desiccation stress have exerted extensive footprints on the genomes, manifested through a high degree of fixation of alleles in surrounding neighborhoods of eroded heterozygosity. These patterns were highly convergent across replicates, consistent with signatures of 'soft' selective sweeps, where multiple alleles present as standing genetic variation become beneficial and sweep through the replicate populations at the same time. Albeit much less frequent, we also observed line-unique sweep regions with zero or near-zero heterozygosity, consistent with classic, or 'hard', sweeps, where novel rather than pre-existing adaptive mutations may have been driven to fixation. Genes responsible for cuticle and protein deubiquitination seemed to be central to these selective sweeps. High divergence within coding sequences between selected and control lines was also reflected by significant results of the McDonald-Kreitman and Ka/Ks tests, showing that as many as 347 genes may have been under positive selection.

CONCLUSIONS

Desiccation stress, a common challenge to many organisms inhabiting dry environments, proves to be a very potent selecting factor having a big impact on genome diversity.

S/HIC: Robust Identification of Soft and Hard Sweeps Using Machine Learning

Detecting the targets of adaptive natural selection from whole genome sequencing data is a central problem for population genetics. However, to date most methods have shown sub-optimal performance under realistic demographic scenarios. Moreover, over the past decade there has been a renewed interest in determining the importance of selection from standing variation in adaptation of natural populations, yet very few methods for inferring this model of adaptation at the genome scale have been introduced. Here we introduce a new method, S/HIC, which uses supervised machine learning to precisely infer the location of both hard and soft selective sweeps. We show that S/HIC has unrivaled accuracy for detecting sweeps under demographic histories that are relevant to human populations, and distinguishing sweeps from linked as well as neutrally evolving regions. Moreover, we show that S/HIC is uniquely robust among its competitors to model misspecification. Thus, even if the true demographic model of a population differs catastrophically from that specified by the user, S/HIC still retains impressive discriminatory power. Finally, we apply S/HIC to the case of resequencing data from human chromosome 18 in a European population sample, and demonstrate that we can reliably recover selective sweeps that have been identified earlier using less specific and sensitive methods.