The Impact of Genomic and Traditional Selection on the Contribution of Mutational Variance to Long-Term Selection Response and Genetic Variance

Genetic Variance Estimation over Time in Broiler Breeding Programmes for Growth and Reproductive Traits

Monitoring the genetic variance of traits is a key priority to ensure the sustainability of breeding programmes in populations under directional selection, since directional selection can decrease genetic variation over time. Studies monitoring changes in genetic variation have typically used long-term data from small experimental populations selected for a handful of traits. Here, we used a large dataset from a commercial breeding line spread over a period of twenty-three years. A total of 2,059,869 records and 2,062,112 animals in the pedigree were used for the estimations of variance components for the traits: body weight (BWT; 2,059,869 records) and hen-housed egg production (HHP; 45,939 records). Data were analysed with three estimation approaches: sliding overlapping windows, under frequentist (restricted maximum likelihood (REML)) and Bayesian (Gibbs sampling) methods; expected variances using coefficients of the full relationship matrix; and a "double trait covariances" analysis by computing correlations and covariances between the same trait in two distinct consecutive windows. The genetic variance showed marginal fluctuations in its estimation over time. Whereas genetic, maternal permanent environmental, and residual variances were similar for BWT in both the REML and Gibbs methods, variance components when using the Gibbs method for HHP were smaller than the variances estimated when using REML. Large data amounts were needed to estimate variance components and detect their changes. For Gibbs (REML), the changes in genetic variance from 1999-2001 to 2020-2022 were 82.29 to 93.75 (82.84 to 93.68) for BWT and 76.68 to 95.67 (98.42 to 109.04) for HHP. Heritability presented a similar pattern as the genetic variance estimation, changing from 0.32 to 0.36 (0.32 to 0.36) for BWT and 0.16 to 0.15 (0.21 to 0.18) for HHP. On the whole, genetic parameters tended slightly to increase over time. The expected variance estimates were lower than the estimates when using overlapping windows. That indicates the low effect of the drift-selection process on the genetic variance, or likely, the presence of genetic variation sources compensating for the loss. Double trait covariance analysis confirmed the maintenance of variances over time, presenting genetic correlations >0.86 for BWT and >0.82 for HHP. Monitoring genetic variance in broiler breeding programmes is important to sustain genetic progress. Although the genetic variances of both traits fluctuated over time, in some windows, particularly between 2003 and 2020, increasing trends were observed, which warrants further research on the impact of other factors, such as novel mutations, operating on the dynamics of genetic variance.

The long-term effects of genomic selection: 2. Changes in allele frequencies of causal loci and new mutations

Genetic selection has been applied for many generations in animal, plant, and experimental populations. Selection changes the allelic architecture of traits to create genetic gain. It remains unknown whether the changes in allelic architecture are different for the recently introduced technique of genomic selection compared to traditional selection methods and whether they depend on the genetic architectures of traits. Here, we investigate the allele frequency changes of old and new causal loci under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, and genomic selection, for a trait controlled by either additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. Genomic selection resulted in slightly larger and faster changes in allele frequencies of causal loci than pedigree selection. For each locus, allele frequency change per generation was not only influenced by its statistical additive effect but also to a large extent by the linkage phase with other loci and its allele frequency. Selection fixed a large number of loci, and 5 times more unfavorable alleles became fixed with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. For pedigree selection, this was mainly a result of increased genetic drift, while genetic hitchhiking had a larger effect on genomic selection. When epistasis was present, the average allele frequency change was smaller (∼15% lower), and a lower number of loci became fixed for all selection methods. We conclude that for long-term genetic improvement using genomic selection, it is important to consider hitchhiking and to limit the loss of favorable alleles.

Assessment of long-term trends in genetic mean and variance after the introduction of genomic selection in layers: a simulation study

Nucleus-based breeding programs are characterized by intense selection that results in high genetic gain, which inevitably means reduction of genetic variation in the breeding population. Therefore, genetic variation in such breeding systems is typically managed systematically, for example, by avoiding mating the closest relatives to limit progeny inbreeding. However, intense selection requires maximum effort to make such breeding programs sustainable in the long-term. The objective of this study was to use simulation to evaluate the long-term impact of genomic selection on genetic mean and variance in an intense layer chicken breeding program. We developed a large-scale stochastic simulation of an intense layer chicken breeding program to compare conventional truncation selection to genomic truncation selection optimized with either minimization of progeny inbreeding or full-scale optimal contribution selection. We compared the programs in terms of genetic mean, genic variance, conversion efficiency, rate of inbreeding, effective population size, and accuracy of selection. Our results confirmed that genomic truncation selection has immediate benefits compared to conventional truncation selection in all specified metrics. A simple minimization of progeny inbreeding after genomic truncation selection did not provide any significant improvements. Optimal contribution selection was successful in having better conversion efficiency and effective population size compared to genomic truncation selection, but it must be fine-tuned for balance between loss of genetic variance and genetic gain. In our simulation, we measured this balance using trigonometric penalty degrees between truncation selection and a balanced solution and concluded that the best results were between 45° and 65°. This balance is specific to the breeding program and depends on how much immediate genetic gain a breeding program may risk vs. save for the future. Furthermore, our results show that the persistence of accuracy is better with optimal contribution selection compared to truncation selection. In general, our results show that optimal contribution selection can ensure long-term success in intensive breeding programs using genomic selection.

Effect of genotyping strategies on the sustained benefit of single-step genomic BLUP over multiple generations

BACKGROUND

Single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) allows the inclusion of information from genotyped and ungenotyped individuals in a single analysis. This avoids the need to genotype all candidates with the potential benefit of reducing overall costs. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of genotyping strategies, the proportion of genotyped candidates and the genotyping criterion to rank candidates to be genotyped, when using ssGBLUP evaluation. A simulation study was carried out assuming selection over several discrete generations where a proportion of the candidates were genotyped and evaluation was done using ssGBLUP. The scenarios compared were: (i) three genotyping strategies defined by their protocol for choosing candidates to be genotyped (RANDOM: candidates were chosen at random; TOP: candidates with the best genotyping criterion were genotyped; and EXTREME: candidates with the best and worse criterion were genotyped); (ii) eight proportions of genotyped candidates (p); and (iii) two genotyping criteria to rank candidates to be genotyped (candidates' own phenotype or estimated breeding values). The criteria of the comparison were the cumulated gain and reliability of the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV).

RESULTS

The genotyping strategy with the greatest cumulated gain was TOP followed by RANDOM, with EXTREME behaving as RANDOM at low p and as TOP with high p. However, the reliability of GEBV was higher with RANDOM than with TOP. This disparity between the trend of the gain and the reliability is due to the TOP scheme genotyping the candidates with the greater chances of being selected. The extra gain obtained with TOP increases when the accuracy of the selection criterion to rank candidates to be genotyped increases.

CONCLUSIONS

The best strategy to maximise genetic gain when only a proportion of the candidates are to be genotyped is TOP, since it prioritises the genotyping of candidates which are more likely to be selected. However, the strategy with the greatest GEBV reliability does not achieve the largest gain, thus reliability cannot be considered as an absolute and sufficient criterion for determining the scheme which maximises genetic gain.

The long-term effects of genomic selection: 1. Response to selection, additive genetic variance, and genetic architecture

Background

Genomic selection has revolutionized genetic improvement in animals and plants, but little is known about its long-term effects. Here, we investigated the long-term effects of genomic selection on response to selection, genetic variance, and the genetic architecture of traits using stochastic simulations. We defined the genetic architecture as the set of causal loci underlying each trait, their allele frequencies, and their statistical additive effects. We simulated a livestock population under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, or genomic selection for a single trait, controlled by either only additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. The simulated epistasis was based on yeast data.

Results

Short-term response was always greatest with genomic selection, while response after 50 generations was greater with phenotypic selection than with genomic selection when epistasis was present, and was always greater than with pedigree selection. This was mainly because loss of genetic variance and of segregating loci was much greater with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. Compared to pedigree selection, selection response was always greater with genomic selection. Pedigree and genomic selection lost a similar amount of genetic variance after 50 generations of selection, but genomic selection maintained more segregating loci, which on average had lower minor allele frequencies than with pedigree selection. Based on this result, genomic selection is expected to better maintain genetic gain after 50 generations than pedigree selection. The amount of change in the genetic architecture of traits was considerable across generations and was similar for genomic and pedigree selection, but slightly less for phenotypic selection. Presence of epistasis resulted in smaller changes in allele frequencies and less fixation of causal loci, but resulted in substantial changes in statistical additive effects across generations.

Conclusions

Our results show that genomic selection outperforms pedigree selection in terms of long-term genetic gain, but results in a similar reduction of genetic variance. The genetic architecture of traits changed considerably across generations, especially under selection and when non-additive effects were present. In conclusion, non-additive effects had a substantial impact on the accuracy of selection and long-term response to selection, especially when selection was accurate.

De Novo Mutation Rate Variation and Its Determinants in Chlamydomonas

De novo mutations are central for evolution, since they provide the raw material for natural selection by regenerating genetic variation. However, studying de novo mutations is challenging and is generally restricted to model species, so we have a limited understanding of the evolution of the mutation rate and spectrum between closely related species. Here, we present a mutation accumulation (MA) experiment to study de novo mutation in the unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas incerta and perform comparative analyses with its closest known relative, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Using whole-genome sequencing data, we estimate that the median single nucleotide mutation (SNM) rate in C. incerta is μ = 7.6 × 10-10, and is highly variable between MA lines, ranging from μ = 0.35 × 10-10 to μ = 131.7 × 10-10. The SNM rate is strongly positively correlated with the mutation rate for insertions and deletions between lines (r > 0.97). We infer that the genomic factors associated with variation in the mutation rate are similar to those in C. reinhardtii, allowing for cross-prediction between species. Among these genomic factors, sequence context and complexity are more important than GC content. With the exception of a remarkably high C→T bias, the SNM spectrum differs markedly between the two Chlamydomonas species. Our results suggest that similar genomic and biological characteristics may result in a similar mutation rate in the two species, whereas the SNM spectrum has more freedom to diverge.

Long-Term Evaluation of Breeding Scheme Alternatives for Endangered Honeybee Subspecies

Modern breeding structures are emerging for European honeybee populations. However, while genetic evaluations of honeybees are becoming increasingly well understood, little is known about how selection decisions shape the populations' genetic structures. We performed simulations evaluating 100 different selection schemes, defined by selection rates for dams and sires, in populations of 200, 500, or 1000 colonies per year and considering four different quantitative traits, reflecting different genetic parameters and numbers of influential loci. Focusing on sustainability, we evaluated genetic progress over 100 years and related it to inbreeding developments. While all populations allowed for sustainable breeding with generational inbreeding rates below 1% per generation, optimal selection rates differed and sustainable selection was harder to achieve in smaller populations and for stronger negative correlations of maternal and direct effects in the selection trait. In small populations, a third or a fourth of all candidate queens should be selected as dams, whereas this number declined to a sixth for larger population sizes. Furthermore, our simulations indicated that, particularly in small populations, as many sires as possible should be provided. We conclude that carefully applied breeding provides good prospects for currently endangered honeybee subspecies, since sustainable genetic progress improves their attractiveness to beekeepers.