Nomogram to Predict Outcomes After Staged Revascularization in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease

Objective

Approximately 50% of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients have multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD). The management strategy for these patients remains controversial. This study aimed to develop predictive models and nomogram of outcomes in STEMI patients with MVD for better identification and classification.

Methods

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to select the features most significantly associated with the outcomes. A Cox regression model was built using the selected variables. One nomogram was computed from each model, and individual risk scores were obtained by applying the nomograms to the cohort. After regrouping patients based on nomogram risk scores into low- and high-risk groups, we used the Kaplan-Meier method to perform survival analysis.

Results

The C-index of the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE)-free survival model was 0·68 (95% CI 0·62-0·74) and 0·65 [0·62-0·68]) at internal validation, and that of the overall survival model was 0·75 (95% CI 0·66-0·84) and (0·73 [0·65-0·81]). The predictions of both models correlated with the observed outcomes. Low-risk patients had significantly lower probabilities of 1-year or 3-year MACEs (4% versus 11%, P= 0.003; 7% versus 15%, P=0.01, respectively) and 1-year or 3-year all-cause death (1% versus 3%, P=0.048; 2% versus 7%, respectively, P=0.001) than high-risk patients.

Conclusion

Our nomograms can be used to predict STEMI and MVD outcomes in a simple and practical way for patients who undergo primary PCI for culprit vessels and staged PCI for non-culprit vessels.

Immediate versus staged complete revascularization in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and multivessel coronary artery disease: results from a prematurely discontinued randomized multicenter trial

BACKGROUND

We aimed to compare clinical outcomes between immediate and staged complete revascularization in primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for treating ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and multivessel disease (MVD).

METHODS

A total of 248 patients were enrolled in a prospective, randomized, and multicenter registry. Immediate revascularization was defined as one-time PCI of culprit and non-culprit lesions at the initial procedure. Staged revascularization was defined as PCI of non-culprit lesions at a later date (mean, 4.4 days; interquartile range, 1-11.4), following initial culprit revascularization. The end points were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; composite of total death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and revascularization), any individual components of MACE, cardiac death, stent thrombosis, and stroke at 12 months.

RESULTS

During a follow-up of 1 year, MACE occurred in 12 patients (11.6%) in the immediate revascularization group and in 8 patients (7.5%) in staged revascularization group (hazard ratio [HR] 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-3.91). The incidence of total death was numerically higher in the immediate group than in the staged group (9.7% vs 2.8%, HR 3.53, 95% CI 0.97-12.84); There were no significant differences between the 2 groups in risks of any individual component of MACE, cardiac death, stroke, and in-hospital complications, such as need for transfusion, bleeding, acute renal failure, and acute heart failure. This study was prematurely terminated due to halt of production of everolimus-eluting stents (manufactured as PROMUS Element by Boston Scientific, Natick, Massachusetts).

CONCLUSIONS

Due to its limited power, no definite conclusion can be drawn regarding complete revascularization strategy from the present study. Further large randomized clinical trials would be warranted to confirm optimal timing of complete revascularization for patients with STEMI and MVD.

Application of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk index in the prediction of long-term outcomes for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and multiple vessel disease: A single-center prospective observational cohort study

The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk index has been indicated to be a simple and useful tool for risk stratification of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the predictive value of the TIMI risk index regarding the long-term outcome for patients with STEMI with multiple vessel disease has remained to be determined. In the present study, a total of 369 patients diagnosed with STEMI who received emergency percutaneous coronary intervention treatment were analyzed. A five-year follow-up was performed to record the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality, as well as the secondary endpoints of myocardial infarction, stroke, emergent revascularization and admission due to heart failure. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cut-off value of the TIMI risk index for predicting all-cause death, based on which the patients were divided into a high TIMI group and a low TIMI group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the long-term survival of the two groups and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of the risk factors regarding primary and secondary endpoints. The ROC curve indicated that the TIMI risk index was associated with three-year all-cause death with a cut-off value of 30.35 (area under curve, 0.705; P=0.001). The high TIMI group (>30.35) and low TIMI group (<30.35) exhibited a significant difference in all-cause death (P=0.009) but not in any of the secondary endpoints (P=0.527). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that a high TIMI risk index was an independent risk factor for all-cause death in patients with STEMI and multiple-vessel disease (hazard ratio=3.709, 95% CI: 1.521-9.046, P=0.004). In conclusion, the TIMI risk index was associated with long-term outcomes for patients with STEMI and multiple-vessel disease and may be of value for risk prediction.

Timing of Nonculprit Percutaneous Coronary Intervention after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

INTRODUCTION

Complete revascularization of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with multivessel disease (MVD) has recently shown to reduce risk of adverse cardiovascular events, including cardiovascular death. Optimal timing of revascularization of nonculprit lesions remains controversial. We aimed to measure cardiac outcomes related to duration between primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) of the culprit lesion and staged PCI (sPCI) of nonculprit lesions.

METHODS

From a prospectively collected consecutive registry of 3,002 patients treated for STEMI by pPCI, 1,555 patients with MVD requiring sPCI were identified. Patients were placed into quartiles of duration to sPCI: 0-7 days (Q1), 7-22 days (Q2), 22-42 days (Q3), >42 days (Q4), excluding those who had complete revascularization at the index event. Major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) included all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularization, and coronary artery bypass surgery. Cox regression and propensity score matching were performed correcting for confounding factors.

RESULTS

The average age at presentation was 65.7 ± 11.5 years. 333 were female (21.4%). Mean time between pPCI and sPCI was 28.3 days (±24.8). Rates of MACE were Q1 - 16.5%, Q2 - 21.2%, Q3 - 25.8%, and Q4 - 30.1% (log-rank <0.001). Following regression analysis, sPCI remained an independent risk factor for MACE (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.226 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.129-1.331, p < 0.001]). There was no association between the time interval up to sPCI with all-cause death (HR = 1.022 [95% CI: 0.925-1.129, p = 0.671]).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MVD are at increased risk of experiencing MACE after revascularization of nonculprit vessels with increasing time delay between pPCI and sPCI.

The effect of complete revascularization in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with Killip class ≥ III

BACKGROUND

The effect of complete revascularization (CR) on high-risk patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has remains a controversial issue, especially on patients in a critical condition. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of CR on patients with STEMI with Killip class ≥ III.

METHODS

From January 2008 to December 2014, 185 patients diagnosed with STEMI with Killip class ≥ III and multiple vessel coronary artery disease received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Eighty-nine patients underwent culprit-only PCI, and the remaining 96 patients underwent immediate or staged PCI for CR. Out of the 96 patients in the CR group, 51 patients underwent immediate CR, and 45 patients underwent CR during the same hospitalization. Thirty-day and 1-year clinical outcomes were compared between the culprit-only PCI group and the CR group as well as between the immediate CR group and staged CR group.

RESULTS

There was a trend toward a lower incidence of post-PCI acute kidney injury in the culprit-only PCI group when compared with the CR group (14.8% vs. 26.0%; P = 0.069). Thirty-day and 1-year cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality were similar between the culprit-only PCI group and CR group. Decreased 1-year cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality were noted in the staged CR group compared with the immediate CR group.

CONCLUSION

was associated a higher possibility of post-PCI acute kidney injury and did not seem to improve 30-day or 1-year clinical outcomes. Patients undergoing staged CR during the same hospitalization had better clinical outcomes.

Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events: An Inevitable Outcome of ST-elevation myocardial infarction? A Literature Review

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) remain the major cause of mortality and morbidity in patients with STEMI (ST-elevation myocardial infarction). The current literature is aimed to analyze the occurrence of MACE following STEMI irrespective of treatment provided, and follow up after the first diagnosis of STEMI. A PubMed search for Studies of STEMI identified 24,244 articles. After applying our inclusion/exclusion criteria, we found out 75 articles of relevance wherein MACE and its components were considered to be the primary endpoint. These 75 articles included eight Cohort Studies, 13 clinical trials including five randomized controlled trials (RCT), one case-control Study, one cross-sectional study, one review article, and 51 other observational studies. Our analysis shows that MACE remains one of the strongest adverse outcomes among STEMI patients. The current literature review found out the incidence of MACE was 4.2 % to 51% irrespective of the mode of treatment, and follow-ups lasting up to 10 years from the time of STEMI diagnosis.

Risk Scoring System for Prognosis Estimation of Multivessel Disease Among Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Multivessel disease (MVD) is an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in acute myocardial infarction patients. Although several global risk scoring systems (RSS) are in use in clinical practice, there is no dedicated RSS for MVD in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The primary objective of this study is to develop a novel RSS to estimate the prognosis of patients with MVD in STEMI.We used the Korean Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR) to identify 2,030 STEMI patients with MVD who underwent appropriate percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Their data were analyzed to develop a new RSS. The prognostic power of this RSS was validated with 2,556 STEMI patients with MVD in the Korean Working Group on Myocardial Infarction Registry (KORMI).Six prognostic factors related to all-cause death in STEMI patients with MVD were age, serum creatinine, Killip Class, lower body weight, decrease in left ventricular ejection fraction, and history of cerebrovascular disease. The RSS for all-cause death was constructed using these risk factors and their statistical weight. The RSS had appropriate performance (c-index: 0.72) in the KORMI validation cohort.We developed a novel RSS that estimates all-cause death in the year following discharge for patients with MVD in STEMI appropriately treated by PCI. This novel RSS was transformed into a simple linear risk score to yield a simplified estimate prognosis of MVD among STEMI patients.