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Bragazzi NL, Woldegerima WA, Iyaniwura SA, Han Q, Wang X, Shausan A, Badu K, Okwen P, Prescod C, Westin M, Omame A, Converti M, Mellado B, Wu J, Kong JD. Knowing the unknown: The underestimation of monkeypox cases. Insights and implications from an integrative review of the literature. Front Microbiol 2022; 13:1011049. [PMID: 36246252 PMCID: PMC9563713 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.1011049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Monkeypox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, which is an infectious agent belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. Currently, commencing from the end of April 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with more than 43,000 cases reported as of 23 August 2022, involving 99 countries and territories across all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. On 23 July 2022, the Director-General of the WHO declared monkeypox a global public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), since the outbreak represents an extraordinary, unusual, and unexpected event that poses a significant risk for international spread, requiring an immediate, coordinated international response. However, the real magnitude of the burden of disease could be masked by failures in ascertainment and under-detection. As such, underestimation affects the efficiency and reliability of surveillance and notification systems and compromises the possibility of making informed and evidence-based policy decisions in terms of the adoption and implementation of ad hoc adequate preventive measures. In this review, synthesizing 53 papers, we summarize the determinants of the underestimation of sexually transmitted diseases, in general, and, in particular, monkeypox, in terms of all their various components and dimensions (under-ascertainment, underreporting, under-detection, under-diagnosis, misdiagnosis/misclassification, and under-notification).
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
| | - Qing Han
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Xiaoying Wang
- Department of Mathematics, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada
| | - Aminath Shausan
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Kingsley Badu
- Vector-borne Infectious Disease Group, Theoretical and Applied Biology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Cheryl Prescod
- Black Creek Community Health Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Andrew Omame
- Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria
- Abdus Salam School of Mathematical Sciences, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Bruce Mellado
- School of Physics and Institute for Collider Particle Physics, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Subatomic Physics, iThemba Laboratory for Accelerator Based Sciences, Somerset West, South Africa
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jude Dzevela Kong
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
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