COVID-19 Mortality and Progress Toward Vaccinating Older Adults - World Health Organization, Worldwide, 2020-2022

Managing Pandemic Threats-The Need for Adaptive Leadership

The threat of the H5N1-influenza virus prompts reflection on COVID-19 pandemic experiences. This paper integrates insights from a first responder using the Cynefin framework to advocate for an adaptive strategic approach to future pandemics. Balancing individual freedoms with containment measures serves to leverage the human capital needed for rapid learning and resource distribution. The Cynefin framework aids in understanding complex problem-solving dynamics which involve varying degrees of order and chaos. Hierarchies in the ordered world support heterarchies which explore the unordered world. Both operate within scale free human systems which must adapt to existential challenges such as pandemics. Experience leading to knowledge and understanding occurs simultaneously at all dimensions of human existence. Ultimately, adaptive leadership and decentralized decision-making, supported by the best available knowledge, enable effective pandemic management and restoration of normal societal functions.

Tracking Persistent Symptoms in Scotland (TraPSS): a longitudinal prospective cohort study of COVID-19 recovery after mild acute infection

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 disease results in disparate responses between individuals and has led to the emergence of long coronavirus disease (Long-COVID), characterised by persistent and cyclical symptomology. To understand the complexity of Long-COVID, the importance of symptom surveillance and prospective longitudinal studies is evident.

METHODS

A 9-month longitudinal prospective cohort study was conducted within Scotland (n=287), using a mobile app to determine the proportion of recovered individuals and those with persistent symptoms and common symptoms, and associations with gender and age.

RESULTS

3.1% of participants experienced symptoms at month 9, meeting the criteria for Long-COVID, as defined by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence terminology. The random effects model revealed a significant time (month) effect for infection recovery (p<0.001, estimate=0.07). Fatigue, cough and muscle pain were the most common symptoms at baseline, with fatigue persisting the longest, while symptoms like cough improved rapidly. Older age increased the likelihood of reporting pain (p=0.028, estimate=0.07) and cognitive impairment (p<0.001, estimate=0.93). Female gender increased the likelihood of headaches (p=0.024, estimate=0.53) and post-exertional malaise (PEM) frequency (p=0.05, estimate=137.68), and increased time x gender effect for PEM frequency (p=0.033, estimate=18.96).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of people fully recover from acute COVID-19, although often slowly. Age and gender play a role in symptom burden and recovery rates, emphasising the need for tailored approaches to Long-COVID management. Further analysis is required to determine the characteristics of the individuals still reporting ongoing symptoms months after initial infection to identify risk factors and potential predictors for the development of Long-COVID.

Burden of Acute Respiratory Infections Caused by Influenza Virus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and SARS-CoV-2 with Consideration of Older Adults: A Narrative Review

Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are acute respiratory infections (ARIs) that can cause substantial morbidity and mortality among at-risk individuals, including older adults. In this narrative review, we summarize themes identified in the literature regarding the epidemiology, seasonality, immunity after infection, clinical presentation, and transmission for these ARIs, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on seasonal patterns of influenza and RSV infections, with consideration of data specific to older adults when available. As the older adult population increases globally, it is of paramount importance to fully characterize the true disease burden of ARIs in order to develop appropriate mitigation strategies to minimize their impact in vulnerable populations. Challenges associated with characterizing the burden of these diseases include the shared symptomology and clinical presentation of influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2, which complicate accurate diagnosis and highlight the need for improved testing and surveillance practices. To this end, multiple regional, national, and global virologic and disease surveillance systems have been established to provide accurate knowledge of viral epidemiology, support appropriate preparedness and response to potential outbreaks, and help inform prevention strategies to reduce disease severity and transmission. Beyond the burden of acute illness, long-term health consequences can also result from influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. These include cardiovascular and pulmonary complications, worsening of existing chronic conditions, increased frailty, and reduced life expectancy. ARIs among older adults can also place a substantial financial burden on society and healthcare systems. Collectively, the existing data indicate that influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infections in older adults present a substantial global health challenge, underscoring the need for interventions to improve health outcomes and reduce the disease burden of respiratory illnesses.Graphical abstract and video abstract available for this article.

Vaccine uptake, associated factors and reasons for vaccination status among the South African elderly; findings and next steps

OBJECTIVES

The elderly are particularly prone to complications from a number of vaccine-preventable diseases. However, there are limited data on vaccine uptake for this vulnerable population in South Africa. Consequently, this study investigated influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake among elderly people in South Africa; reasons for their vaccination status; and factors associated with their uptake.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using an interviewer-administered questionnaire to survey 985 consenting adults aged ≥65 years in 2018. Participants were recruited from across South Africa. Bivariate analysis was used to identify socio-demographic variables associated with vaccine uptake, with multivariate logistic regression analysis used to identify key factors associated with vaccine uptake.

RESULTS

Influenza vaccine uptake was 32.3% (318/985), with uptake highest in those aged 85-90 years. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake was 3.8% (37/985) and 0.4% (4/985) respectively, being highest among those aged >90 years. The strongest statistically significant predictors for influenza vaccination were previous influenza vaccination (OR: 8.42 [5.61-12.64]); identifying as 'Coloured' (OR: 8.39 [3.98-17.69]); and residing in Gauteng Province (OR: 5.44 [3.30-9.02]). The strongest statistically significant predictors of receiving pneumococcal vaccination included receiving influenza vaccination (OR = 10.67 [3.27-37.83]); residing in the Western Cape Province (OR: 7.34 [1.49-36.22]); identifying as 'Indian' (OR: 5.85 [2.53-13.55]); and having a university education (OR: 5.56 [1.25-24.77]). Statistically significant barriers to receiving influenza vaccination included following the Traditional African religion (OR: 0.08 [0.01-0.62]) and residing in Limpopo Province (OR: 0.16 [0.04-0.71]). The main reasons for non-vaccination were considering influenza as a mild illness (36.6%; 242/661), and lack of knowledge about the pneumococcal (93.4%; 886/948) and shingles (95.2%; 934/981) vaccines.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine uptake for all vaccines was sub-optimal, with multiple non-modifiable factors predicting vaccine uptake. These pre-COVID-19 data provide a baseline for measuring the effectiveness of future interventions to increase vaccine uptake and safeguard the health of the elderly.

Excess Mortality and its Determinants During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 21 Countries: An Ecological Study from the C-MOR Project, 2020 and 2021

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed health systems, resulting in a surge in excess deaths. This study clustered countries based on excess mortality to understand their response to the pandemic and the influence of various factors on excess mortality within each cluster.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This ecological study is part of the COVID-19 MORtality (C-MOR) Consortium. Mortality data were gathered from 21 countries and were previously used to calculate weekly all-cause excess mortality. Thirty exposure variables were considered in five categories as factors potentially associated with excess mortality: population factors, health care resources, socioeconomic factors, air pollution, and COVID-19 policy. Estimation of Latent Class Linear Mixed Model (LCMM) was used to cluster countries based on response trajectory and Generalized Linear Mixture Model (GLMM) for each cluster was run separately.

RESULTS

Using LCMM, two clusters were reached. Among 21 countries, Brazil, the USA, Georgia, and Poland were assigned to a separate cluster, with the mean of excess mortality z-score in 2020 and 2021 around 4.4, compared to 1.5 for all other countries assigned to the second cluster. In both clusters the population incidence of COVID-19 had the greatest positive relationship with excess mortality while interactions between the incidence of COVID-19, fully vaccinated people, and stringency index were negatively associated with excess mortality. Moreover, governmental variables (government revenue and government effectiveness) were the most protective against excess mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study highlighted that clustering countries based on excess mortality can provide insights to gain a broader understanding of countries' responses to the pandemic and their effectiveness.

Safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1345 RSV vaccine coadministered with an influenza or COVID-19 vaccine in adults aged 50 years or older: an observer-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Coadministration of a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine with seasonal influenza or SARS-CoV-2 vaccines could reduce health-care visits and increase vaccination uptake in older adults who are at high risk for severe respiratory disease. The RSV mRNA-1345 vaccine demonstrated efficacy against RSV disease with acceptable safety in the ConquerRSV trial in adults aged 60 years and older. We aimed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1345 coadministered with a seasonal influenza vaccine or SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine.

METHODS

We conducted a two-part, phase 3, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised trial in medically stable adults aged 50 years or older in the USA. In part A, participants were randomly assigned in a 7:10:10 ratio to receive 50 μg mRNA-1345 plus placebo (0·9% sodium chloride) or coadministered with 60 μg of a standard-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (SIIV4), or SIIV4 plus placebo. In part B, participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive 50 μg mRNA-1345 plus placebo or coadministered with 50 μg SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273.214 (bivalent [Wuhan-Hu-1 plus omicron BA.1]), or mRNA-1273.214 plus placebo. Random allocation in both parts was stratified by age group (50-59 years, 60-74 years, and ≥75 years) and used interactive response technology. The coprimary objectives in each part were safety in the safety set throughout the study and non-inferiority for six immunogenicity endpoints in the per-protocol set comparing coadministered versus individual vaccines on day 29. Immunogenicity endpoints were geometric mean titre (GMT) ratios (GMRs) of RSV-A neutralising antibodies (nAbs; in parts A and B), GMRs of haemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titres to each of the four influenza strains in SIIV4 (A/Victoria/2570/2019 [H1N1]pdm09-like virus [A/H1N1], A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 [H3N2]-like virus [A/H3N2], B/Washington/02/2019-like virus [B/Victoria], and B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus [B/Yamagata]; in part A), GMRs of nAbs against SARS-CoV-2 (ancestral [D614G] and omicron BA.1; part B), and differences in seroresponse rates for nAbs against RSV-A (parts A and B) and SARS-CoV-2 (ancestral [D614G] and omicron BA.1; part B). Non-inferiority was declared when the lower bound of the 95% CI for GMRs was greater than 0·667 and for seroresponse rate differences was greater than -10%. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05330975) and is ongoing.

FINDINGS

Between April 1 and June 9, 2022, 1631 participants were randomly allocated in part A and 1623 received vaccinations on day 1 (685 [42%] received mRNA-1345 plus SIIV4, 249 [15%] mRNA-1345 plus placebo, and 689 [42%] SIIV4 plus placebo). Due to an interactive response technology error, the mRNA-1345 plus placebo group was smaller than planned (249 vs 420 participants). Of the 1623 participants in the safety set, 877 (54%) were female and 746 (46%) were male. Between July 27 and Sept 28, 2022, 1691 participants were randomly allocated in part B and 1681 received vaccinations on day 1 (564 [34%] received mRNA-1345 plus mRNA-1273.214, 558 [33%] mRNA-1345 plus placebo, and 559 [33%] mRNA-1273.214 plus placebo). Among the 1681 participants in the safety set, 924 (55%) were female and 757 (45%) were male. The reactogenicity profiles of the coadministered regimens were generally similar to the profiles when the vaccines were administered alone. As of the 6-month and 7-month follow-up times for parts A and B, respectively, no serious adverse events, adverse events of special interest, discontinuations due to adverse events, or fatal events considered related to study vaccination were reported. In part A, the GMR of nAbs against RSV-A in the mRNA-1345 plus SIIV4 group versus the mRNA-1345 alone group was 0·81 (95% CI 0·67 to 0·97), and the seroresponse rate difference in nAbs against RSV-A between the groups was -11·2% (95% CI -17·9 to -4·1). GMRs of anti-HAI titres in the mRNA-1345 plus SIIV4 versus SIIV4 alone groups were 0·89 (0·77 to 1·03) for A/H1N1, 0·97 (0·86 to 1·09) for A/H3N2, 0·93 (0·82 to 1·05) for B/Victoria, and 0·91 (0·81 to 1·02) for B/Yamagata. In part B, the GMR of nAbs against RSV-A in the mRNA-1345 plus mRNA-1273.214 versus the mRNA-1345 alone groups was 0·80 (95% CI 0·70 to 0·90), and the seroresponse rate difference was -4·4% (95% CI -9·9 to 1·0). Comparing the mRNA-1345 plus mRNA-1273.214 group with the mRNA-1273.214 alone group, the GMR of nAbs was 0·96 (0·87 to 1·06) for the ancestral (D614G) virus and 1·00 (0·89 to 1·14) for omicron BA.1; seroresponse rate differences were 0·2% (95% CI -6·0 to 6·3) for SARS-CoV-2 ancestral and -0·9% (-6·6 to 4·7) for omicron BA.1.

INTERPRETATION

Coadministered mRNA-1345 plus SIIV4 or mRNA-1273.214 vaccines had acceptable safety profiles and elicited mostly non-inferior immune responses compared to individual vaccines in adults aged 50 years or older; only the seroresponse rate difference in nAbs against RSV-A in part A did not meet the non-inferiority criterion. Overall, these data support coadministration of mRNA-1345 with these vaccines in this population; longer-term evaluation continues in this study.

FUNDING

Moderna.

Implementing the MIRROR-TCM Randomised Control Trial During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation

AIM

To evaluate the implementation of the Transitional Care Model (TCM), an evidence-based, advanced practice registered nurse-led multi-component intervention, as part of a randomised controlled trial during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Parallel convergent mixed-methods approach.

METHODS

Data for this study were collected between June 2020 and February 2021. Data from 78 patients who received the intervention and 68 recorded meetings with system leaders and clinical teams were analysed using descriptive statistics, directed content analysis, and joint display.

RESULTS

Fidelity to delivery of elements of the TCM components was variable, with the Hospital-to-Home visit elements having the widest range (14.3%-100%) and Maintaining Relationships elements having the highest range (97.3%-98.6%). There were 27 identified challenges and 15 strategies for implementing the TCM with fidelity during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted all aspects of the delivery of the TCM across all sites. This historical event highlighted the need for services and support for patients and caregivers transitioning from the hospital to home.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING AND PATIENT CARE

Evidence-based solutions are needed to enhance healthcare delivery and patient outcomes. Findings will guide nurses in implementing proven transitional care interventions.

IMPACT

Findings will inform the implementation and scaling of transitional care and other evidence-based interventions across diverse healthcare settings.

REPORTING METHOD

GRAMMS reporting guidelines.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04212962. https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/study/NCT04212962?titles=NCT04212962&rank=1.

SARS-CoV-2 testing, test positivity and vaccination in social housing residents compared with the general population: a retrospective population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The consideration of unique social housing needs has largely been absent from the COVID-19 response, particularly in tailoring strategies to improve access to testing and vaccine uptake among vulnerable and high-risk populations in Ontario. Given the growing population of social housing residents, this study aimed to compare SARS-CoV-2 testing, positivity, and vaccination rates in a social housing population with those in a general population cohort in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study used administrative health data from Ontario to examine SARS-CoV-2 testing, positivity and vaccination rates in social housing residents compared with the general population from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. All comparisons were unadjusted, stratified by sex and age and evaluated using standardised differences.

RESULTS

The rates of SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing were lower among younger age groups and higher among older adults within the social housing cohort, compared with the general population cohort. SARS-CoV-2 test positivity was higher in social housing than in the general population among individuals aged 60-79 years (7.9% vs 5.3%, respectively) and 80 years and older (12.0% vs 7.9%, respectively). Overall, 34.3% of social housing residents were fully vaccinated, compared with 29.6% of the general population cohort. However, a smaller proportion of social housing residents had received a booster vaccine (36.7%) compared with the general population (52.4%).

CONCLUSION

Improved and targeted outreach strategies are needed to increase the uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccines among social housing residents.

Global landscape of COVID-19 vaccination programmes for older adults: a descriptive study

BACKGROUND

To minimise severe cases and deaths from COVID-19 among high-risk populations such as older adults (aged 60 years and older), it is crucial to monitor and update vaccination strategies. In this study, we aim to provide a global profile of the current COVID-19 vaccination programmes for older adults, including vaccination policies, coverage rates, and vaccine demand.

METHODS

We used publicly available data on the COVID-19 vaccines used, vaccination schedules, indicated age groups, and age-specific country-level vaccine coverage, updated through to July 20, 2024. Data on vaccination policy were extracted from publicly available sources in the following priority: (1) official sources (ie, government websites, health department websites, and official reports); (2) resources integrated by institutions or organisations (ie, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Africa Center for Disease Prevention and Control, and COVAX); and (3) cross-validated news and media reports derived from government or health department sources. We estimated coverage gaps to achievement of two specific objectives: (1) immunising 100% of older adults with primary series and a booster dose, as per WHO's goal; and (2) surpassing WHO's goal by administering one extra booster dose to 80% of older adults or achieving 80% coverage of a 2023-24 series vaccine.

FINDINGS

192 countries reported their use of COVID-19 vaccines for older people, of which 71 vaccine products have been used for older adults and 79 countries have deployed 22 vaccines containing components against variants of concern; 122 countries offered a second booster dose or a special booster dose, while others used only primary series or one booster dose. 96 countries prioritised older people for vaccination. Among countries with available data, the median proportion of individuals completing a primary series was 81% (IQR 58·3-92·0), for a first booster was 53% (14·1-81·7), for a second booster was 44·3% (13·5-69·7), and for a 2023-24 series vaccination was 23·6% (6·6-52·4), with large differences by region. Coverage of the second booster and the 2023-24 series was lower in individuals aged 60-70 years than in older age groups. To achieve the WHO target of 100% coverage for older populations with primary series and a booster dose, 1·01 doses per person are required, and to attain an 80% coverage for a second booster or 2023-24 series, surpassing WHO's goal, 1·43 doses per person are required.

INTERPRETATION

Progress of COVID-19 vaccination programmes for older adults is uneven across countries, emphasising an ongoing challenge to achieve vaccine equity for this high-risk age group. Therefore, it is essential to establish robust and timely vaccination surveillance systems, especially to facilitate data-driven policies that promote COVID-19 vaccination campaigns worldwide.

FUNDING

Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Continuing Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Older Adults

The rapid onset of the COVID-19 pandemic presented a multi-faceted challenge to older adults, carers, and care institutions globally. A wide range of policies aimed at protecting older adults from serious illness and death from COVID-19 - including prioritizing vaccination for older adults, mandating vaccination among health care workers, and stringent isolation measures - achieved some success in mitigating these outcomes. However, older adults continue to bear the burden of risk for these most severe outcomes. Additionally, some early efforts to protect older adults, often via extreme isolation measures both within care facilities and in the community, yielded unanticipated health and psychosocial impacts on older adults and care and service networks and revealed systemic ageism in health and social policies worldwide. This special issue of the Journal of Aging & Social Policy compiles research conducted both during and after the height of the pandemic on the impacts of immediate response efforts, while delving into the longer-term differential effects across population subgroups and organizations. Governments, agencies, and aging services organizations will benefit from fully considering lessons learned and incorporating them into future emergency response efforts.

The Challenge of Misleading Information: Does the Interaction between Zinc and Vitamin D Influence the Immune Response against SARS-CoV-2 in the Elderly Population?

Immunization is a challenge for the elderly population and can leave this group more vulnerable to opportunistic pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2. Due to this situation, while vaccines were in the development phase, hypotheses were raised about the role of vitamins and minerals in immunization. In Brazil, there was a controversy regarding the well-known COVID-19 Kit, a standardized prescription for positive cases that contained zinc, and vitamin D, and anti-parasitic drugs. There was great controversy in scientific circles, since COVID-19 brought a major challenge for health professionals and public authorities: misleading information. In this study, we evaluated the role of vitamin D and zinc in the production of anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) in a group of elderly residents in a nursing home in northeastern Brazil. Serum levels of COVID-19 NAbs were assessed, along with vitamin D and zinc, in two phases. The first (T1) was in August 2022 with 26 elderly people, and the second (T2) was in March 2023 with 21, due to the death of five participants. Overall, we observed satisfactory levels for vitamin D, with no participants showing a deficiency in either test, and zinc, with only two participants having a negative result at T1 and three at T2. However, a drop in the average number of NAbs was observed, especially in women (T1 = 89 ± 19 vs. T2 = 57 ± 44), highlighting the importance of monitoring this immunological parameter in the population studied. Based on the results, we suggest that there is no synergism between the micronutrients studied and NAbs (p > 0.05). Further studies are needed to consolidate the findings of an absence of synergism between vitamin D and zinc in the maintenance of NAbs.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake in individuals with functional difficulty, disability, and comorbid conditions: insights from a national survey in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccine uptake among individuals with disabilities is crucial for safeguarding their health and well-being. However, the extent of vaccine uptake among this group remains largely unknown in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to assess the COVID-19 vaccine uptake among persons with functional difficulty, disability and/or comorbidity in Bangladesh and their associated factors.

METHODS

Data from 9,370 respondents extracted from the 2021 National Household Survey on Persons with Disability were analysed. The outcome variable was the uptake of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine (yes, no). Key explanatory variables included the presence of disability (yes, no), comorbidity (yes, no), and both comorbidity and disability (yes, no) among persons with functional difficulty. The relationship between the outcome and explanatory variables was determined using mixed-effects multilevel logistic regressions adjusted for covariates.

RESULTS

The overall uptake of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine among persons with functional difficulty was 57.37%, among persons with functional difficulty and disability was 48.63% and among persons with functional difficulty and single (57.85%) or multi-comorbidity (60.37%). Compared to the respondents with functional difficulty only, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of not receiving any dose of the COVID-19 vaccine for individuals with both functional difficulty and disability was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.22-1.53), and for individuals with functional difficulty, disability and one or more comorbid conditions was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15-1.47). The aOR of receiving at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine among individuals with functional difficulty and one or more comorbid conditions was significantly higher than among those with functional difficulty only.

CONCLUSION

In Bangladesh, COVID-19 vaccine uptake was relatively low among individuals with disabilities. The existing COVID-19 vaccine rollout programs and similar future programs should prioritise individuals with disabilities and include targeted strategies to reach them.

GrimAge is elevated in older adults with mild COVID-19 an exploratory analysis

COVID-19 has been contained; however, the side effects associated with its infection continue to be a challenge for public health, particularly for older adults. On the other hand, epigenetic status contributes to the inter-individual health status and is associated with COVID-19 severity. Nevertheless, current studies focus only on severe COVID-19. Considering that most of the worldwide population developed mild COVID-19 infection. In the present exploratory study, we aim to analyze the association of mild COVID-19 with epigenetic ages (HorvathAge, HannumAge, GrimAge, PhenoAge, SkinAge, and DNAmTL) and clinical variables obtained from a Mexican cohort of older adults. We found that all epigenetic ages significantly differ from the chronological age, but only GrimAge is elevated. Additionally, both the intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAA) and the extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA) are accelerated in all patients. Moreover, we found that immunological estimators and DNA damage were associated with PhenoAge, SkinBloodHorvathAge, and HorvathAge, suggesting that the effects of mild COVID-19 on the epigenetic clocks are mainly associated with inflammation and immunology changes. In conclusion, our results show that the effects of mild COVID-19 on the epigenetic clock are mainly associated with the immune system and an increase in GrimAge, IEAA, and EEAA.

Paradoxes in the coevolution of contagions and institutions

Epidemic models study the spread of undesired agents through populations, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in social media or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on global top-down interventions, nor solely on individual adaptations. Instead, interventions commonly come from local institutions such as public health departments, moderation teams on social media platforms or other forms of group governance. Classic models, which are often individual or agent-based, are ill-suited to capture local adaptations. We leverage developments of institutional dynamics based on cultural group selection to study how groups attempt local control of an epidemic by taking inspiration from the successes and failures of other groups. Incorporating institutional changes into epidemic dynamics reveals paradoxes: a higher transmission rate can result in smaller outbreaks as does decreasing the speed of institutional adaptation. When groups perceive a contagion as more worrisome, they can invest in improved policies and, if they maintain these policies long enough to have impact, lead to a reduction in endemicity. By looking at the interplay between the speed of institutions and the transmission rate of the contagions, we find rich coevolutionary dynamics that reflect the complexity of known biological and social contagions.

Global trends in COVID-19 incidence and case fatality rates (2019-2023): a retrospective analysis

Objectives

Analyzing and comparing COVID-19 infection and case-fatality rates across different regions can help improve our response to future pandemics.

Methods

We used public data from the WHO to calculate and compare the COVID-19 infection and case-fatality rates in different continents and income levels from 2019 to 2023.

Results

The Global prevalence of COVID-19 increased from 0.011 to 0.098, while case fatality rates declined from 0.024 to 0.009. Europe reported the highest cumulative infection rate (0.326), with Africa showing the lowest (0.011). Conversely, Africa experienced the highest cumulative case fatality rates (0.020), with Oceania the lowest (0.002). Infection rates in Asia showed a steady increase in contrast to other continents which observed initial rises followed by decreases. A correlation between economic status and infection rates was identified; high-income countries had the highest cumulative infection rate (0.353) and lowest case fatality rate (0.006). Low-income countries showed low cumulative infection rates (0.006) but the highest case fatality rate (0.016). Initially, high and upper-middle-income countries experienced elevated initial infection and case fatality rates, which subsequently underwent significant reductions.

Conclusions

COVID-19 rates varied significantly by continent and income level. Europe and the Americas faced surges in infections and low case fatality rates. In contrast, Africa experienced low infection rates and higher case fatality rates, with lower- and middle-income nations exceeding case fatality rates in high-income countries over time.

Mortality risk information and health-seeking behavior during an epidemic

In a context where pessimistic survival perceptions have been widespread as a result of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (Fig. 1 A), we study vaccine uptake and other health behaviors during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging a longitudinal cohort study in rural Malawi that has been followed for up to 25 y, we document that a 2017 mortality risk information intervention designed to reduce pessimistic mortality perceptions (Fig. 1 B) resulted in improved health behavior, including COVID-19 vaccine uptake (Fig. 1 C). We also report indirect effects for siblings and household members. This was likely the result of a reinforcing process where the intervention triggered engagement with the healthcare system and stronger beliefs in the efficacy of modern biomedical treatments, which led to the adoption of health risk reduction behavior, including vaccine uptake. Our findings suggest that health information interventions focused on survival perceptions can be useful in promoting health behavior and participation in the formal healthcare system, even during health crises-such as the COVID-19 pandemic-that are unanticipated at the time of the intervention. We also note the importance of the intervention design, where establishing rapport, tailoring the content to the local context, and spending time with respondents to convey the information contributed to the salience of the message.

Emerging priorities and concerns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic: qualitative and quantitative findings from a United States national survey

Purpose

The present study examines how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) experience affected values and priorities.

Methods

This cross-sectional study collected data between January and April 2023, from 1,197 individuals who are chronically ill or part of a general population sample. Using open-ended prompts and closed-ended questions, we investigated individuals' perceptions about COVID-19-induced changes in what quality of life means to them, what and who are important, life focus, and changes in norms and stressors. Data analyses included content and psychometric analysis, leading to latent profile analysis (LPA) to characterize distinct groups, and analysis of variance and chi-squared to compare profile groups' demographic characteristics.

Results

About 75% of the study sample noted changes in values and/or priorities, particularly in the greater prominence of family and friends. LPA yielded a four-profile model that fit the data well. Profile 1 (Index group; 64% of the sample) had relatively average scores on all indicators. Profile 2 (COVID-Specific Health & Resignation to Isolation Attributable to COVID-19; 5%) represented COVID-19-specific preventive health behaviors along with noting the requisite isolation and disengagement entailed in the social distancing necessary for COVID-19 prevention. Profile 3 (High Stress, Low Trust; 25%) represented high multi-domain stress, with the most elevated scores both on focusing on being true to themselves and perceiving people to be increasingly uncivil. Profile 4 (Active in the World, Low Trust; 6%) was focused on returning to work and finding greater meaning in their activities. These groups differed on race, marital status, difficulty paying bills, employment status, number of times they reported having had COVID-19, number of COVID-19 boosters received, whether they had Long COVID, age, BMI, and number of comorbidities.

Conclusion

Three years after the beginning of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, its subjective impact is notable on most study participants' conceptualization of quality of life, priorities, perspectives on social norms, and perceived stressors. The four profile groups reflected distinct ways of dealing with the long-term effects of COVID-19.

Geospatial patterns of excess mortality in Belgium: Insights from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

Belgium experienced multiple COVID-19 waves that hit various groups in the population, which changed the mortality pattern compared to periods before the pandemic. In this study, we investigated the geographical excess mortality trend in Belgium during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We retrieved the number of deaths and population data in 2020 based on gender, age, and municipality of residence, and we made a comparison with the mortality data in 2017-2019 using a spatially discrete model.

RESULTS

Excess mortality was significantly associated with age, gender, and COVID-19 incidence, with larger effects in the second half of 2020. Most municipalities had higher risks of mortality with a number of exceptions in the northeastern part of Belgium. Some discrepancies in excess mortality were observed between the north and south regions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers useful insight into excess mortality and will aid local and regional authorities in monitoring mortality trends.

Overdose deaths before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in a US county

Introduction

Globally, overdose deaths increased near the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, which created availability and access barriers to addiction and social services. Especially in times of a crisis like a pandemic, local exposures, service availability and access, and system responses have major influence on people who use drugs. For policy makers to be effective, an understanding at the local level is needed.

Methods

This retrospective epidemiologic study from 2019 through 2021 compares immediate and 20-months changes in overdose deaths from the pandemic start to 16 months before its arrival in Pinellas County, FL We examine toxicologic death records of 1,701 overdoses to identify relations with interdiction, and service delivery.

Results

There was an immediate 49% increase (95% CI 23-82%, p < 0.0001) in overdose deaths in the first month following the first COVID deaths. Immediate increases were found for deaths involving alcohol (171%), heroin (108%), fentanyl (78%), amphetamines (55%), and cocaine (45%). Overdose deaths remained 27% higher (CI 4-55%, p = 0.015) than before the pandemic through 2021.Abrupt service reductions occurred when the pandemic began: in-clinic methadone treatment dropped by two-thirds, counseling by 38%, opioid seizures by 29%, and drug arrests by 56%. Emergency transport for overdose and naloxone distributions increased at the pandemic onset (12%, 93%, respectively) and remained higher through 2021 (15%, 377%,). Regression results indicate that lower drug seizures predicted higher overdoses, and increased 911 transports predicted higher overdoses. The proportion of excess overdose deaths to excess non-COVID deaths after the pandemic relative to the year before was 0.28 in Pinellas County, larger than 75% of other US counties.

Conclusions

Service and interdiction interruptions likely contributed to overdose death increases during the pandemic. Relaxing restrictions on medical treatment for opioid addiction and public health interventions could have immediate and long-lasting effects when a major disruption, such as a pandemic, occurs. County level data dashboards comprised of overdose toxicology, and interdiction and service data, can help explain changes in overdose deaths. As a next step in predicting which policies and practices will best reduce local overdoses, we propose using simulation modeling with agent-based models to examine complex interacting systems.

Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong: Registry-Based Study From 2017 to 2023

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a significant toll on individual health and the efficacy of health care systems. However, the influence of COVID-19 on the frequency and outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) within the Chinese population, both before and throughout the entire pandemic period, remains to be clarified.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to fill the gaps by investigating the prevalence and outcomes of OHCA in Hong Kong (HK) both before and during the whole pandemic period.

METHODS

This is a retrospective regional registry study. The researchers matched OHCA data with COVID-19-confirmed case records between December 2017 and May 2023. The data included information on response times, location of OHCA, witness presence, initial rhythm, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), use of public-access defibrillation, resuscitation in the accident and emergency department, and survival to admission. Descriptive analyses were conducted, and statistical tests such as analysis of variance and χ2 were used to examine differences between variables. The incidence of OHCA and survival rates were calculated, and logistic regression analysis was performed to assess associations. The prevalence of OHCA and COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic was also described.

RESULTS

A total of 43,882 cases of OHCA were reported in HK and included in our analysis. Around 13,946 cases were recorded during the prepandemic period (2017-2019), and the remaining 29,936 cases were reported during the pandemic period (2020-2023). During the pandemic period, the proportion of female patients increased to 44.1% (13,215/29,936), and the average age increased slightly to 76.5 (SD 18.5) years. The majority of OHCAs (n=18,143, 61.1% cases) occurred at home. A witness was present in 45.9% (n=10,723) of the cases, and bystander CPR was initiated in 44.6% (n=13,318) of the cases. There was a significant increase in OHCA incidence, with a corresponding decrease in survival rates compared to the prepandemic period. The location of OHCA shifted, with a decrease in incidents in public places and a potential increase in incidents at home. We found that CPR (odds ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.17-1.86) and public-access defibrillation (odds ratio 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.28) were significantly associated with a high survival to admission rate during the pandemic period. There was a correlation between the development of OHCA and the prevalence of COVID-19 in HK.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on OHCA in HK, resulting in increased incidence and decreased survival rates. The findings highlight the importance of addressing the indirect effects of the pandemic, such as increased stress levels and strain on health care systems, on OHCA outcomes. Strategies should be developed to improve OHCA prevention, emergency response systems, and health care services during public health emergencies to mitigate the impact on population health.

Emerging Vistas for the Nutraceutical Withania somnifera in Inflammaging

Inflammaging, a coexistence of inflammation and aging, is a persistent, systemic, low-grade inflammation seen in the geriatric population. Various natural compounds have been greatly explored for their potential role in preventing and treating inflammaging. Withania somnifera has been used for thousands of years in traditional medicine as a nutraceutical for its numerous health benefits including regenerative and adaptogenic effects. Recent preclinical and clinical studies on the role of Withania somnifera and its active compounds in treating aging, inflammation, and oxidative stress have shown promise for its use in healthy aging. We discuss the chemistry of Withania somnifera, the etiology of inflammaging and the protective role(s) of Withania somnifera in inflammaging in key organ systems including brain, lung, kidney, and liver as well as the mechanistic underpinning of these effects. Furthermore, we elucidate the beneficial effects of Withania somnifera in oxidative stress/DNA damage, immunomodulation, COVID-19, and the microbiome. We also delineate a putative protein-protein interaction network of key biomarkers modulated by Withania somnifera in inflammaging. In addition, we review the safety/potential toxicity of Withania somnifera as well as global clinical trials on Withania somnifera. Taken together, this is a synthetic review on the beneficial effects of Withania somnifera in inflammaging and highlights the potential of Withania somnifera in improving the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in the aging population worldwide.

Long-Term Particulate Matter Exposure and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 in South Korea

Rationale: Particulate matter (PM) exposure exacerbates health outcomes by causing lung damage. Objectives: To investigate whether prior exposure to particulate matter ⩽10 μm and ⩽2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10 and PM2.5) was associated with clinical outcomes among patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods: Data from the nationwide registration database of the National Health Insurance and Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency in South Korea were used. The study included adult patients who were admitted to monitoring centers or hospitals between October 8, 2020 and December 31, 2021, after COVID-19 confirmation. AirKOREA database, which compiles air pollutant data from 642 stations in 162 cities and counties across South Korea, was used to extract data on PM levels. Average values of monthly exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 from the year previous to hospital admission because of COVID-19 to the date of confirmation of COVID-19 were calculated and used to define PM exposures of patients with COVID-19. Results: In total, 322,289 patients with COVID-19 were included, and 4,633 (1.4%) died during hospitalization. After adjusting for covariates, a 1-μg/m3 increase in PM10 and PM2.5 exposure was associated with 4% (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.05; P < 0.001) and 6% (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.04-1.07; P < 0.001) increase in the risk of in-hospital mortality, respectively. In addition, a 1-μg/m3 increase in PM10 and PM2.5 was associated with 5% (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.04-1.07; P < 0.001) and 8% (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.10; P < 0.001) increase in the risks of requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation, respectively. Conclusions: PM10 and PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased in-hospital mortality and the need for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation among patients with COVID-19 in South Korea.

Reliance on sources of immunization information and vaccine uptake among older adults in a rural state: The mediating role of trust

Older adults are more vulnerable to the negative impacts of infectious diseases than younger individuals. However, regardless of the importance and effectiveness of vaccines to reduce morbidity and mortality, issues remain with vaccine hesitancy among this population. Older adults' sources of immunization information and their level of trust in those sources may play a role in their vaccination behaviors. This research aimed to better understand the role of information sources and related issues of trust as related to vaccine uptake among older adults. A community-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted with 901 older adults in North Dakota in May-July 2022. Measures included extent of reliance on specific sources of immunization information, levels of trust, and uptake for influenza, pneumonia, shingles, and COVID-19 vaccinations. Immunization information sources were grouped into medical experts, informal, and public outlets. Results indicated older adults were more likely to rely on medical experts than informal sources or public outlets for immunization information. Greater reliance on medical experts was associated with a greater likelihood of vaccine uptake for all vaccines, while reliance on public outlets was associated with a greater likelihood of vaccine uptake only for COVID primary series and boosters. Reliance on informal sources for immunization information was associated with a reduced likelihood of vaccine uptake for all vaccines except shingles. Nearly half of respondents were uncertain who to trust for vaccine information. Uncertainty who to trust for immunization information significantly mediated the associations between reliance on medical experts and uptake for most vaccines indicating that trust in medical experts fosters vaccine uptake. Increasing reliance on medical experts as sources of immunization information is vital to increasing vaccine uptake among older adults. Additionally, this population must be assisted in increasing their ability to successfully assess the trustworthiness of immunization information sources.

Factors associated with mortality of elderly people due to COVID-19: Protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a significant health crisis, marked by high mortality rates on a global scale, with mortality from the disease being notably concentrated among the elderly due to various factors.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the biological and non-biological factors associated with COVID-19 mortality rates among the elderly worldwide.

METHODS

The following databases will be consulted: PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science and ScienceDirect. Longitudinal observational studies (cohort and case-control-risk factors) will be included. The risk of bias, defined as low, moderate, high, will be assessed using the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Quality Assessment Tool for observational cohort and cross-sectional studies. Two independent authors will conduct the searches, and any possible disagreements will be resolved by a third author. Heterogeneity between study results will be assessed using a standard X2 test with a significance level of 0.05, and an I2 value will be calculated to further assess heterogeneity. The random effects model for meta-analyses will be adopted to distribute the weight between the studies and standardize their contributions. The meta-analyses will be conducted using RevMan software.

DISCUSSION

Despite the numerous publications on COVID-19 mortality among the elderly, there is still a gap in knowledge, as there is no systematic review and meta-analysis that summarizes the main biological and non-biological associated factors globally.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study will consolidate the latest evidence and address gaps in the overall understanding of biological or non-biological associated factors. This knowledge will facilitate the development of appropriate health strategies for this demographic group and pave the way for further research.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42023400873).

There is no association between anxiety and lifestyle in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study

Introduction and objective

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused mental health problems worldwide. Older people have been particularly affected by the lockdown as their health conditions have changed, although they have been kept in isolation to avoid exposure to contagion. We sought to determine the association between lifestyles and anxiety in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Materials and methods

This study was cross-sectional. We enrolled 150 older adults of both sexes and with a history of chronic diseases from the municipality of El Agustino (Lima, Peru). The 20-item Geriatric Anxiety Scale and the 25-item Lifestyle Questionnaire on eating, physical activity, rest, and sleep were administered in Spanish during July-August 2021.

Results

The mean age was 70.8 ± 8.1 years, 54.7% were male, and 75.3% practiced exercise. During the COVID-19 pandemic, 99.3% of the elderly had healthy lifestyles and 40% presented anxiety (mild, moderate, and severe anxiety in 26.7%, 8.7%, and 4.7%, respectively). We found no association between anxiety and lifestyle (p = 0.189), physical exercise was a predictor of lifestyle (p < 0.001) and we did not find predictors of anxiety symptoms (p > 0.05).

Conclusions

Our results suggest that there was no link between anxiety symptoms and lifestyle in older adults during the lockdown. It is important to conduct in-depth research on factors associated with anxiety symptoms among older residents in other regions, focusing on population groups with the highest rates of infection and death from COVID-19.

Comparative Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Among Older Adults: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis Using the GRADE Framework

INTRODUCTION

The mRNA vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 demonstrated high efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in phase 3 clinical trials, including among older adults. To inform coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine selection, this systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis assessed the comparative effectiveness of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 in older adults.

METHODS

We systematically searched for relevant studies reporting COVID-19 outcomes with mRNA vaccines in older adults aged ≥ 50 years by first cross-checking relevant published SLRs. Based on the cutoff date from a previous similar SLR, we then searched the WHO COVID-19 Research Database for relevant articles published between April 9, 2022, and June 2, 2023. Outcomes of interest were SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and COVID-19-related death following ≥ 2 vaccine doses. Random effects meta-analysis models were used to pool risk ratios (RRs) across studies. Heterogeneity was evaluated using chi-square testing. Evidence certainty was assessed per GRADE framework.

RESULTS

Twenty-four non-randomized real-world studies reporting clinical outcomes with mRNA vaccines in individuals aged ≥ 50 years were included in the meta-analysis. Vaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64‒0.80]), symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% CI 0.62‒0.83]), severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.67 [95% CI 0.57‒0.78]), and COVID-19-related hospitalization (RR 0.65 [95% CI 0.53‒0.79]) but not COVID-19-related death (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.64‒1.00]) compared with BNT162b2. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies for all outcomes (I2 > 75%) except death (I2 = 0%). Multiple subgroup and sensitivity analyses excluding specific studies generally demonstrated consistent results. Certainty of evidence across outcomes was rated as low (type 3) or very low (type 4), reflecting the lack of randomized controlled trial data.

CONCLUSION

Meta-analysis of 24 observational studies demonstrated significantly lower risk of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infections and hospitalizations with the mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 vaccine in older adults aged ≥ 50 years.

Strengthening the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) COVID-19 vaccination information system

This manuscript describes the process and impact of strengthening the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO)'s COVID-19 vaccination information system. This system plays a critical role in tracking vaccination coverage, guiding resource allocation and supporting vaccination campaign roll-out for countries in the African region. Recognising existing data management issues, including complex reporting prone to human error, compromised data quality and underutilisation of collected data, WHO AFRO introduced significant system improvements during the COVID-19 pandemic. These improvements include shifting from an Excel-based to an online Azure-based data collection system, automating data processing and validation, and expansion of collected data. These changes have led to improvements in data quality and quantity including a decrease in data non-validity, missingness, and record duplication, and expansion of data collection forms to include a greater number of data fields, offering a more comprehensive understanding of vaccination efforts. Finally, the creation of accessible information products-including an interactive public dashboard, a weekly data pack and a public monthly bulletin-has improved data use and reach to relevant partners. These resources provide crucial insights into the region's vaccination progress at national and subnational levels, thereby enabling data-driven decision-making to improve programme performance. Overall, the strengthening of the WHO AFRO COVID-19 vaccination information system can serve as a model for similar efforts in other WHO regions and contexts. The impact of system strengthening on data quality demonstrated here underscores the vital role of robust data collection, capacity building and management systems in achieving high-quality data on vaccine distribution and coverage. Continued investment in information systems is essential for effective and equitable public health efforts.

Klotho-derived peptide KP1 ameliorates SARS-CoV-2-associated acute kidney injury

Introduction: The severe cases of COVID-19, a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), often present with acute kidney injury (AKI). Although old age and preexisting medical conditions have been identified as principal risk factors for COVID-19-associated AKI, the molecular basis behind such a connection remains unknown. In this study, we investigated the pathogenic role of Klotho deficiency in COVID-19-associated AKI and explored the therapeutic potential of Klotho-derived peptide 1 (KP1). Methods: We assessed the susceptibility of Klotho deficient Kl/Kl mice to developing AKI after expression of SARS-CoV-2 N protein. The role of KP1 in ameliorating tubular injury was investigated by using cultured proximal tubular cells (HK-2) in vitro and mouse model of ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI) in vivo. Results: Renal Klotho expression was markedly downregulated in various chronic kidney disease (CKD) models and in aged mice. Compared to wild-type counterparts, mutant KL/KL mice were susceptible to overexpression of SARS-CoV-2 N protein and developed kidney lesions resembling AKI. In vitro, expression of N protein alone induced HK-2 cells to express markers of tubular injury, cellular senescence, apoptosis and epithelial-mesenchymal transition, whereas both KP1 and Klotho abolished these lesions. Furthermore, KP1 mitigated kidney dysfunction, alleviated tubular injury and inhibited apoptosis in AKI model induced by IRI and N protein. Conclusion: These findings suggest that Klotho deficiency is a key determinant of developing COVID-19-associated AKI. As such, KP1, a small peptide recapitulating Klotho function, could be an effective therapeutic for alleviating AKI in COVID-19 patients.

Design and analysis heterogeneity in observational studies of COVID-19 booster effectiveness: A review and case study

We investigated the design and analysis of observational booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies by performing a scoping review of booster VE literature with a focus on study design and analytic choices. We then applied 20 different approaches, including those found in the literature, to a single dataset from Michigan Medicine. We identified 80 studies in our review, including over 150 million observations in total. We found that while protection against infection is variable and dependent on several factors including the study population and time period, both monovalent boosters and particularly the bivalent booster offer strong protection against severe COVID-19. In addition, VE analyses with a severe disease outcome (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) appear to be more robust to design and analytic choices than an infection endpoint. In terms of design choices, we found that test-negative designs and their variants may offer advantages in statistical efficiency compared to cohort designs.

Amorphization of Low Soluble Drug with Amino Acids to Improve Its Therapeutic Efficacy: a State-of-Art-Review

Low aqueous solubility of drug candidates is an ongoing challenge and pharmaceutical manufacturers pay close attention to amorphization (AMORP) technology to improve the solubility of drugs that dissolve poorly. Amorphous drug typically exhibits much higher apparent solubility than their crystalline form due to high energy state that enable them to produce a supersaturated state in the gastrointestinal tract and thereby improve bioavailability. The stability and augmented solubility in co-amorphous (COA) formulations is influenced by molecular interactions. COA are excellent carriers-based drug delivery systems for biopharmaceutical classification system (BCS) class II and class IV drugs. The three important critical quality attributes, such as co-formability, physical stability, and dissolution performance, are necessary to illustrate the COA systems. New amorphous-stabilized carriers-based fabrication techniques that improve drug loading and degree of AMORP have been the focus of emerging AMORP technology. Numerous low-molecular-weight compounds, particularly amino acids such as glutamic acid, arginine, isoleucine, leucine, valine, alanine, glycine, etc., have been employed as potential co-formers. The review focus on the prevailing drug AMORP strategies used in pharmaceutical research, including in situ AMORP, COA systems, and mesoporous particle-based methods. Moreover, brief characterization techniques and the application of the different amino acids in stabilization and solubility improvements have been related.

Effect of serum autoantibodies on the COVID-19 patient's prognosis

Objectives

Virus infection closely associated with autoimmune disease. The study aimed to explore the autoantibody profiles and the correlation of autoantibodies with the disease severity and the prognosis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.

Methods

Three hundred thirty-seven hospitalized COVID-19 patients from 6th to 23rd January 2023 were enrolled. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to analyze the risk factors for the patient's disease severity and outcome. The association between Anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibody (ENA) positivity and the prognosis of COVID-19 patients was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Results

137 of COVID-19 patients were detected positive for antinuclear antibody (ANA), 61 had positive results for ENA, and 38 were positive for ANA and ENA. ANA positivity rate was higher in non-severe illness group (p = 0.032). COVID-19 patients who died during hospitalization had a high rate of ENA positivity than convalescent patients (p = 0.002). Multivariate logistic regression showed that ANA positivity was a protective factor for the disease severity of COVID-19. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that ENA positivity, white blood cells count (WBC), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), Creatinine (CREA), and CRP were independent risk factors for the outcome of COVID-19 patients, and that COVID-19 patients with ENA positivity had a lower cumulative survival rate (p = 0.002).

Conclusion

A spectrum of autoantibodies were expressed in COVID-19 patients, among which ANA and ENA positivity was associated with the severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Therefore, autoantibodies may help to assess the disease severity and prognosis of COVID-19 patients.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and effects of age, sex, comorbidity, and vaccination among older individuals: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND

We investigated the contribution of age, coexisting medical conditions, sex, and vaccination to incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 in older adults since pandemic onset.

METHODS

A national retrospective cohort study was conducted in the population of Qatar aged ≥50 years between February 5, 2020 and June 15, 2023. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for infection and for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes were estimated through Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence was 25.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.86-25.15%) for infection and 1.59% (95% CI: 1.55-1.64%) for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 after a follow-up duration of 40.9 months. Risk of infection varied minimally by age and sex but increased significantly with coexisting conditions. Risk of infection was reduced with primary-series vaccination (AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.90-0.93) and further with first booster vaccination (AHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). Risk of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 increased exponentially with age and linearly with coexisting conditions. AHRs for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.7-0.97) for one dose, 0.15 (95% CI: 0.13-0.17) for primary-series vaccination, and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08-0.14) for first booster vaccination. Sensitivity analysis restricted to only Qataris yielded similar results.

CONCLUSION

Incidence of severe COVID-19 in older adults followed a dynamic pattern shaped by infection incidence, variant severity, and population immunity. Age, sex, and coexisting conditions were strong determinants of infection severity. Vaccine protection against severe outcomes showed a dose-response relationship, highlighting the importance of booster vaccination for older adults.

The Capability Approach and the WHO healthy ageing framework (for the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing)

This commentary discusses the WHO definition of health ageing in terms of functional abilities, and the problem definition and evidence-based public health response framework outlined in the 2015 WHO Report on Ageing and Health. After identifying the neglect of older people in health policy at national and global levels, some data are presented on the majority of COVID-19 deaths being older people. The discussion then focuses on the underlying ethical and analytical framework of functional abilities provided by the Capability Approach. The approach is presented as distinguishing between achievement and capability, the ethical significance of recognising both, and its inclusion of surrounding social conditions from local to global in assessing wellbeing of older people's functional abilities. Measurement of functional abilities, informed by the Capabilities Approach, is stated to be an enormous and crucial task in establishing a global baseline, and making progress in improving the health and wellbeing of older people.

A Comparison of the Awareness, Attitude, and Uptake of COVID-19, Hepatitis B Virus, and Yellow Fever Vaccines Between Rural and Urban Respondents in Edo State, Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

Despite the target set by WHO, Africa still falls short when it comes to individuals' use of COVID-19 vaccines. There is a similar pattern of low vaccine usage for the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and yellow fever (YF).

AIM AND OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study is to compare the awareness, attitude, and uptake of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD), COVID-19, HBV, and YF, between a rural and an urban community in Nigeria.

METHODOLOGY

The study was a descriptive cross-sectional study carried out between January 2022 and December 2022 in a rural community, Okada, and an urban community, Benin, in Edo State, Nigeria. A total of 283 rural participants and 483 urban participants were interviewed. SPSS Statistics version 26 (IBM Corp. Released 2019. IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 26.0. Armonk, NY: IBM Corp.) was used for data collection and analysis. The significant value was set at P<0.05.

RESULTS

A major percentage of both populations, 98.3% urban and 90.1% rural, reported being aware of COVID-19 vaccines (indicated by P<0.001). There was a similar pattern with HBV vaccine awareness. However, awareness of YF vaccines was more common in the rural (63.3%) community than in the urban (55.0%) community. A complete dose uptake of COVID-19 vaccines was reported by 7.7% of the rural and 2.2% of the urban respondents. The major reason for the refusal of vaccine uptake was the fear of possible side effects.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that vaccine uptake for COVID-19, HBV, and YF is low despite seemingly good awareness of these vaccines. The number one reason for any vaccine refusal is the possibility of experiencing side effects.

Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations

Several teams have been publishing global estimates of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we examine potential flaws and underappreciated sources of uncertainty in global excess death calculations. Adjusting for changing population age structure is essential. Otherwise, excess deaths are markedly overestimated in countries with increasingly aging populations. Adjusting for changes in other high-risk indicators, such as residence in long-term facilities, may also make a difference. Death registration is highly incomplete in most countries; completeness corrections should allow for substantial uncertainty and consider that completeness may have changed during pandemic years. Excess death estimates have high sensitivity to modelling choice. Therefore different options should be considered and the full range of results should be shown for different choices of pre-pandemic reference periods and imposed models. Any post-modelling corrections in specific countries should be guided by pre-specified rules. Modelling of all-cause mortality (ACM) in countries that have ACM data and extrapolating these models to other countries is precarious; models may lack transportability. Existing global excess death estimates underestimate the overall uncertainty that is multiplicative across diverse sources of uncertainty. Informative excess death estimates require risk stratification, including age groups and ethnic/racial strata. Data to-date suggest a death deficit among children during the pandemic and marked socioeconomic differences in deaths, widening inequalities. Finally, causal explanations require great caution in disentangling SARS-CoV-2 deaths, indirect pandemic effects and effects from measures taken. We conclude that excess deaths have many uncertainties, but globally deaths from SARS-CoV-2 may be the minority of calculated excess deaths.

Worldwide Regional Differences in Obesity, Elderly, and COVID-19 Mortality: Do the Exceptions Prove the Rule?

Objectives

Obesity and old age are commonly assumed to be risk factors for COVID-19 mortality. On a worldwide basis, we examine quantitative measures of obesity and elderly in the populations of individual countries and territories, and investigate whether these measures are predictive of COVID-19 mortality in those countries. In particular, we highlight regional differences relative to obesity and elderly metrics, and how these relate to COVID-19 mortality.

Methods

In this retrospective, population-based study, we obtained data relating to percentages of obese or elderly individuals in 199 countries, as well as COVID-19 mortality rates in these countries. We used negative binomial regression analyses to assess associations between COVID-19 mortality rates and the putative risk factors, in six regions - Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America.

Results

We found significant differences between regions relative to COVID-19 mortality, as well as obesity and elderly population proportions. There were also substantial differences between countries within regions relative to proportions of obesity and elderly individuals, and COVID-19 mortality.

Conclusions

There are significant differences both between regions and within regions relative to COVID-19 mortality rates, as well as proportions of obese or elderly individuals. A global pronouncement that obesity and elderly constitute definitive risk factors for COVID-19 mortality masks the subtleties engendered by these intra- and inter-regional differences.

Comparison of vaccination and booster rates and their impact on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries

Aim

To evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries.

Methods

We selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their "faster" or "slower" vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or "slower" category included all other countries. In the first or "faster" category, two groups, "boosters faster'' and "boosters slower" were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2.

Results and discussion

The "faster" countries, as opposed to the "slower" ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the "faster" and "slower" categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the "slower" countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the "faster" countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population.

Conclusion

Thus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in "slower" European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

COVID-19 Booster Dose Coverage and Hesitancy among Older Adults in an Urban Slum and Resettlement Colony in Delhi, India

BACKGROUND

The high prevalence of vaccine booster hesitancy, with the concomitant waning of humoral vaccine or hybrid immunity, and the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern can accentuate COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The study objective was to ascertain the COVID-19 vaccination coverage, including the administration of precaution (booster) dose vaccination, among the older population in an urban slum and resettlement colony population in Delhi, India.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey in an urban resettlement colony, slum, and village cluster in the Northeast district of Delhi among residents aged ≥50 years.

RESULTS

A total of 2217 adults (58.28%) had obtained a COVID-19 booster (precaution) dose vaccine, 1404 (36.91%) had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine without booster dose, 121 (3.18%) were unvaccinated, while 62 (1.63%) participants received a single dose. Based on adjusted analysis, older adults (>65 years), higher education, and higher per-capita income were statistically significant predictors of booster dose vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

More than four in ten adults in an urban slum and resettlement colony in Delhi lacked COVID-19 booster dose vaccination despite high rates of double-dose vaccination (~95%). Public health programming should provide an enhanced focus on reducing complacency with renewed prioritization for improving ease of access to COVID-19 vaccination services, particularly in underserved areas.

Design and Analysis Heterogeneity in Observational Studies of COVID-19 Booster Effectiveness: A Review and Case Study

Background

Observational vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies based on real-world data are a crucial supplement to initial randomized clinical trials of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. However, there exists substantial heterogeneity in study designs and statistical methods for estimating VE. The impact of such heterogeneity on VE estimates is not clear.

Methods

We conducted a two-step literature review of booster VE: a literature search for first or second monovalent boosters on January 1, 2023, and a rapid search for bivalent boosters on March 28, 2023. For each study identified, study design, methods, and VE estimates for infection, hospitalization, and/or death were extracted and summarized via forest plots. We then applied methods identified in the literature to a single dataset from Michigan Medicine (MM), providing a comparison of the impact of different statistical methodologies on the same dataset.

Results

We identified 53 studies estimating VE of the first booster, 16 for the second booster. Of these studies, 2 were case-control, 17 were test-negative, and 50 were cohort studies. Together, they included nearly 130 million people worldwide. VE for all outcomes was very high (around 90%) in earlier studies (i.e., in 2021), but became attenuated and more heterogeneous over time (around 40%-50% for infection, 60%-90% for hospitalization, and 50%-90% for death). VE compared to the previous dose was lower for the second booster (10-30% for infection, 30-60% against hospitalization, and 50-90% against death). We also identified 11 bivalent booster studies including over 20 million people. Early studies of the bivalent booster showed increased effectiveness compared to the monovalent booster (VE around 50-80% for hospitalization and death).Our primary analysis with MM data using a cohort design included 186,495 individuals overall (including 153,811 boosted and 32,684 with only a primary series vaccination), and a secondary test-negative design included 65,992 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2. When different statistical designs and methods were applied to MM data, VE estimates for hospitalization and death were robust to analytic choices, with test-negative designs leading to narrower confidence intervals. Adjusting either for the propensity of getting boosted or directly adjusting for covariates reduced the heterogeneity across VE estimates for the infection outcome.

Conclusion

While the advantage of the second monovalent booster is not obvious from the literature review, the first monovalent booster and the bivalent booster appear to offer strong protection against severe COVID-19. Based on both the literature view and data analysis, VE analyses with a severe disease outcome (hospitalization, ICU admission, or death) appear to be more robust to design and analytic choices than an infection endpoint. Test-negative designs can extend to severe disease outcomes and may offer advantages in statistical efficiency when used properly.

Risk Factor Analysis and Multiple Predictive Machine Learning Models for Mortality in COVID-19: A Multicenter and Multi-Ethnic Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a significant challenge to the global health care system. Implementing timely, accurate, and cost-effective screening approaches is crucial in preventing infections and saving lives by guiding disease management.

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to use machine learning algorithms to analyze clinical features from routine clinical data to identify risk factors and predict the mortality of COVID-19.

METHODS

The data used in this research were originally collected for the study titled "Neurologic Syndromes Predict Higher In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19." A total of 4711 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled consecutively from four hospitals. Three machine learning models, including random forest (RF), partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), and support vector machine (SVM), were used to find risk factors and predict COVID-19 mortality.

RESULTS

The predictive models were developed based on three machine learning algorithms. The RF model was trained with 20 variables and had a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) value of 0.859 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.804-0.920). The PLS-DA model was trained with 20 variables and had a ROC value of 0.775 (95% CI 0.694-0.833). The SVM model was trained with 10 variables and had a ROC value of 0.828 (95% CI 0.785-0.865). The nine variables that were present in all three models were age, procalcitonin, ferritin, C-reactive protein, troponin, blood urea nitrogen, mean arterial pressure, aspartate transaminase, and alanine transaminase.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated three machine learning prediction models for COVID-19 mortality based on accessible clinical features. The RF model showed the best performance among the three models. The nine variables identified in the models may warrant further investigation as potential prognostic indicators of severe COVID-19.

Impact of aging on immunity in the context of COVID-19, HIV, and tuberculosis

Knowledge of aging biology needs to be expanded due to the continuously growing number of elderly people worldwide. Aging induces changes that affect all systems of the body. The risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer increases with age. In particular, the age-induced adaptation of the immune system causes a greater susceptibility to infections and contributes to the inability to control pathogen growth and immune-mediated tissue damage. Since the impact of aging on immune function, is still to be fully elucidated, this review addresses some of the recent understanding of age-related changes affecting key components of immunity. The emphasis is on immunosenescence and inflammaging that are impacted by common infectious diseases that are characterized by a high mortality, and includes COVID-19, HIV and tuberculosis.

Challenges in the Vaccination of the Elderly and Strategies for Improvement

In recent years, the elderly has become a rapidly growing proportion of the world's population as life expectancy is extending. Immunosenescence and inflammaging contribute to the increased risk of chronic non-communicable and acute infectious diseases. Frailty is highly prevalent in the elderly and is associated with an impaired immune response, a higher propensity to infection, and a lower response to vaccines. Additionally, the presence of uncontrolled comorbid diseases in the elderly also contributes to sarcopenia and frailty. Vaccine-preventable diseases that threaten the elderly include influenza, pneumococcal infection, herpes zoster, and COVID-19, which contribute to significant disability-adjusted life years lost. Previous studies had shown that conventional vaccines only yielded suboptimal protection that wanes rapidly in a shorter time. This article reviews published papers on several vaccination strategies that were developed for the elderly to solve these problems: more immunogenic vaccine formulations using larger doses of antigen, stronger vaccine adjuvants, recombinant subunit or protein conjugated vaccines, newly developed mRNA vaccines, giving booster shots, and exploring alternative routes of administration. Included also are several publications on senolytic medications under investigation to boost the immune system and vaccine response in the elderly. With all those in regard, the currently recommended vaccines for the elderly are presented.

Reimagining the journey to recovery: The COVID-19 pandemic and global mental health

In this editorial, guest editors Vikram Patel, Daisy Fancourt, Lola Kola, and Toshi Furukawa discuss the contents of the special issue on the pandemic and global mental health, highlighting key themes and providing important context.

Higher plasma levels of thymosin-α1 are associated with a lower waning of humoral response after COVID-19 vaccination: an eight months follow-up study in a nursing home

BACKGROUND

Older people achieve lower levels of antibody titers than younger populations after Covid-19 vaccination and show a marked waning humoral immunity over time, likely due to the senescence of the immune system. Nevertheless, age-related predictive factors of the waning humoral immune response to the vaccine have been scarcely explored. In a cohort of residents and healthcare workers from a nursing home that had received two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine, we measured specific anti-S antibodies one (T1), four (T4), and eight (T8) months after receiving the second dose. Thymic-related functional markers, including thymic output, relative telomere length, and plasma thymosin-α1 levels, as well as immune cellular subsets, and biochemical and inflammatory biomarkers, were determined at T1, and tested for their associations with the magnitude of the vaccine response (T1) and the durability of such response both, at the short- (T1-T4) and the long-term (T1-T8). We aimed to identify age-related factors potentially associated with the magnitude and persistence of specific anti-S immunoglobulin G (IgG)-antibodies after COVID-19 vaccination in older people.

RESULTS

Participants (100% men, n = 98), were subdivided into three groups: young (< 50 years-old), middle-age (50-65 years-old), and older (≥65 years-old). Older participants achieved lower antibody titers at T1 and experienced higher decreases in both the short- and long-term. In the entire cohort, while the magnitude of the initial response was mainly associated with the levels of homocysteine [β (95% CI); - 0.155 (- 0.241 to - 0.068); p = 0.001], the durability of such response at both, the short-term and the long-term were predicted by the levels of thymosin-α1 [- 0.168 (- 0.305 to - 0.031); p = 0.017, and - 0.123 (- 0.212 to - 0.034); p = 0.008, respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma levels of thymosin-α1 were associated with a lower waning of anti-S IgG antibodies along the time. Our results suggest that plasma levels of thymosin-α1 could be used as a biomarker for predicting the durability of the responses after COVID-19 vaccination, possibly allowing to personalize the administration of vaccine boosters.

HIV and COVID-19 Co-Infection: Epidemiology, Clinical Characteristics, and Treatment

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global medical emergency with a significant socio-economic impact. People with HIV (PWH), due to the underlying immunosuppression and the particularities of HIV stigma, are considered a vulnerable population at high risk. In this review, we report what is currently known in the available literature with regards to the clinical implications of the overlap of the two epidemics. PWH share the same risk factors for severe COVID-19 as the general population (age, comorbidities), but virological and immunological status also plays an important role. Clinical presentation does not differ significantly, but there are some opportunistic infections that can mimic or co-exist with COVID-19. PWH should be prime candidates for preventative COVID-19 treatments when they are available, but in the setting of resistant strains, this might be not easy. When considering small-molecule medications, physicians need to always remember to address potential interactions with ART, and when considering immunosuppressants, they need to be aware of potential risks for opportunistic infections. COVID-19 shares similarities with HIV in how the public perceives patients-with fear of the unknown and prejudice. There are opportunities for HIV treatment hidden in COVID-19 research with the leaps gained in both monoclonal antibody and vaccine development.

Willingness of Older Adults From Culturally Diverse Populations to Participate in COVID-19 Related Treatment Trials and Associated Factors

This survey study aimed to assess the willingness of culturally diverse older adults to participate in COVID-19 research. The majority of the 276 participants were women (81%, n = 223) and Black/African American (62%, n = 172) or White Hispanic (20%, n = 56). A key finding from the survey was less than 1 of 10 respondents would be likely to participate in COVID-19 related research if given the opportunity. There were no differences observed by gender, race or ethnicity. Implications of these findings are considered. These study findings indicate continued effort and better messaging strategies are required to increase awareness that COVID-19 related research needs to include culturally diverse older adults to ensure vaccines and treatments are efficacious in different populations.