Regional differences in cardiac mortality rates in Russia: the role of statistical features

Causes of Death in Patients Asking for Polyclinic Care for Coronary Heart Disease

AIM

Retrospective analysis of the underlying causes for death of patients who did and did not seek outpatient medical care (OPMC) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and discussion of a possibility for using administrative anonymized but individualized databases for analysis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The electronic database of the Central Administration of the Civil Registry Office of the Moscow Region (Unified State Register of the Civil Registry Office of the Moscow Region), including medical death certificates (MDC) for 2021, was used to select all cases of fatal outcomes with the disease codes of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) (codes of external causes, injuries, poisonings excluded) that were indicated as the primary cause of death (PCD). Personalized data of the deceased were combined with data from electronic medical records of patients who sought OPMC at institutions of the Moscow Region within up to 2 years before death. In addition to IHD, the following PCD codes were taken into account: malignant tumors, COVID-19, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular diseases, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, alcohol-associated diseases, and, as examples of unspecified PCD, old age and unspecified encephalopathy.Results In total, among those who died from diseases, the proportion of those who died from IHD was 18.9%; for another 8.4%, IHD was indicated as a comorbid disease in Part II of the MDC. Among those who sought OPMC for IHD, the IHD proportion indicated as PCD was 27.5%, and among those who did not seek OPMC 17.4% (p <0.0001). Those who died from IHD and who had sought OPMC were older (mean age, 75.59 ± 10.94 years) than those who died from IHD and had not sought OMPM (mean age, 73.96 ± 10.94 years; p < 0.0001). The frequency of myocardial infarction as PCD among those who had and had not sought OPMC was the same (12%), chronic forms of IHD were 83.9% and 79.7%, the frequencies of "unspecified" acute forms of IHD (codes I24.8-9) were 4.1% and 8.3%, respectively. The proportion of deaths from COVID-19 was the highest (21.7% and 24.3%, respectively), from malignant neoplasms 11.6% and 12.7%, respectively, and from unspecified encephalopathy 10.6% and 10.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Only 25% of patients who had sought OPMC for IHD died from IHD, otherwise the causes of death were the same as for patients who had not sought OPMC for IHD. Analysis of administrative databases allows identifying disparities in the PCD structure and to direct the efforts of specialists to reconciling the criteria for death from various forms of IHD.

Ten-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe using the novel SCORE2-Diabetes model

The article presents a validated prognostic score (SCORE2-Diabetes) developed by a group of European researchers in collaboration with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) for 10-year cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Europe. The SCORE2-Diabetes risk calculator was developed based on the SCORE2 algorithms using data from patients with T2D and no prior cardiovascular disease (CVD). The authors developed a novel risk model that takes into account sex, age, age at diagnosis of T2D, glycated hemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, based on cardiovascular morbidity rate in 4 regions of Europe. The model included 38602 cases of CVD and showed good discrimination and calculation improvement compared to SCORE2 (change in C-index from 0,009 to 0,031) depending on the T2D-related factors. The authors consider adaptation of the SCORE2-Diabetes risk model to modern populations, including in the Russian Federation. Comparative analysis with similar models, assessing the advantages and disadvantages of various CVD risk models in patients with T2D is presented.

Conclusion. SCORE2-Diabetes improves the identification of in­dividuals at higher cardiovascular risk in Europe based on new validated data from the European region.

Comparative Structure of Male Mortality From Cardiac Causes in Five-Year Age Groups

Aim      To study the nosological structure of male mortality in 5-year age groups (15-85+) and the contribution of cardiac causes to all-cause mortality in 2020; to discuss the correctness of statistical recording of causes of cardiac death.Material and methods  Data source: Center for Demographic Research of the Russian School of Economy http://demogr.nes.ru / index.php / ru / demogr_indicat / agreement. The selected indexes were all-cause death, causes of the class of circulatory diseases (CD) according to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) (class IX, codes I00-I99), and cardiac causes of death (codes I00-I40, I70, I67.4, Q20-28) in 5-year age groups.Results Proportions of CD and cardiac causes in the male all-cause mortality were almost identical in the age groups younger than 30 years. Then the proportion of cardiac deaths remained almost unchanged (30-34 %) in contrast to the rapid growth of the CD proportion (to 51 % with a maximum at 75-79 years). Until the age of 45 years, more than 50% of cardiac deaths were caused by heart defects and cardiomyopathies and more than 25% by acute forms of ischemic heart disease (IHD); in older groups, their proportions decreased but the mortality increased. In the age groups younger than 50 years, the mortality from "Other forms of acute IHD" (ICD codes I20, I24.1-9 counted as one line) was higher than the mortality from myocardial infarction (MI); after 50 years, the MI mortality became higher. The combined proportion of two groups in the mortality from cardiac causes was maximal at the age of 20-24 years (31 %), then it decreased to a minimum of 9 % at the age of 85+. The mortality from and the proportions of chronic forms of IHD (more than 50% of which have no clear criteria for diagnosis and death), arterial hypertension, "Myocardial degeneration" (ICD code I51.5), and "Pulmonary heart and pulmonary circulation disorders" (ICD codes I26-I28) rapidly grow with increasing age. Existing approaches to recording the causes of death do not allow assessment of the contribution and mortality rates from a number of cardiac diseases.Conclusion      Mortality reduction programs should provide more accurate recording of the causes of death and take into account age-related features of the nosological structure of cardiac mortality.

Dynamics of Regional Mortality Rates From Cardiac Causes in Russia 2019–2020

Aim      To analyze the dynamics of standardized mortality ratios (SMR) (2019–2020) for the cardiological causes indicated as the primary (original) cause of death, in regions of the Russian Federation, based on the RF State Statistics Service Brief Nomenclature of Causes of Death (RFSSS BNCD). Reports have indicated substantial changes in the indexes and structure of mortality since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries.

Material and methods  RFSSS data on numbers of deaths were analyzed according to BNCD and mid-year population in single year of age groups in 2019 and 2020. SMRs were determined for 23 cardiological causes of death listed in the BNSD in a separate line; the average regional SMR value and the standard deviation were provided; and SMRs were compared both among 4 groups (with a previously described method) and by 23 RFSSS BNCD causes using the Wilcoxon test.

Results In 2020 vs. 2019, the mean regional SMR for cardiological causes increased by 12.07±9.86 % (from 301.02±77.67 to 336.15±84.5 %; р<0.0001). Decreases in SMR were found in 9 of 82 regions; however, only in two of them (the Republic of Ingushetia and the Sakhalin Region), SMR was decreased for all 4 groups of causes. In both 2019 and 2020 (60.9±13.8 and 62.5±12.8 %, respectively), the highest proportion of deaths was related with the 1st group of causes (chronic ischemic heart disease, IHD), with an increase in SMR of 18.66±33.28 % (р<0.0001). Increases in SMR were found in 75 regions while in the other regions, decreases in SMRs were observed. For the 2nd group of causes (myocardial infarction, other acute forms of IHD, sudden cardiac death), the mean regional SMR increased in 2020 by 3.2±18.1 % (р=0.3). Increased SMRs were noted in 54 regions. The proportion of the 2nd group in cardiological mortality was 17.3±9.7 % in 2019 and 16.1±9.6 % in 2020. The mean regional SNR for the 3rd group of causes (heart defects, myocardial diseases, etc.) increased in 2020 by 11.6±23.1 % (р=0.006). The mean regional proportion of causes for this group did not significantly changed compared to 2019 (17.5±8.2 and 17.1±7.3 %, respectively); however, the contribution of this group was greater than the contribution of the 2nd group. Increases in SMR were observed in 65 regions, while the contribution of causes related with arterial hypertension did not significantly change. Significant mid-regional differences in SMR values, dynamics of SMRs for different causes, and increases in the coefficient of variation were noted for almost all causes of death. Significant differences between 2019 and 2020 were found for 3 of 23 causes: other forms of chronic IHD (decreased SMRs in 15 regions and increased SMRs in the others), atherosclerotic heart disease (decreased SMRs in 38 regions), and alcoholic cardiomyopathy (decreased SMRs in 28 regions).

Conclusion      During the COVID-19 pandemic, the SMR for cardiological causes was increased. Considerable regional differences in values and dynamics of SMR for individual causes call for attention to the unification of the criteria for clinical diagnosis.