Are we ready for pandemic influenza H5N1?

Global spatial risk pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in wild birds: A knowledge-fusion based approach

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses have continuously circulated throughout much of the world since 2003, resulting in huge economic losses and major public health problems. Wild birds have played an important role in the spread of H5N1 HPAI. To understand its spatial distribution, H5N1 HPAI have been studied by many disciplines from different perspectives, but only one kind of disciplinary knowledge was involved, which has provided limited progress in understanding. Combining risk information from different disciplines based on knowledge fusion can provide more accurate and detailed information. In this study, local k function, phylogenetic tree analysis, and logistic spatial autoregressive models were used to explore the global spatial pattern of H5N1 HPAI based on outbreak data in wild birds, genetic sequences, and risk factors, respectively. On this basis, Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory was further applied to study the spatial distribution of H5N1 HPAI. We found D-S evidence theory was more robust and reliable than the other three methods, providing technical and methodological support for application to the research of other diseases. The shortest distance to wild bird migration routes, roads and railways, elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use and land cover (LULC) and infant mortality rates (IMR) were significantly associated with the occurrence of H5N1 HPAI. The high-risk areas were mainly located in Northern and Central Europe, the eastern Mediterranean, and East and Southeast Asia. High-risk clusters were closely related to the social, economic and ecological environment of the region. Locations where the potential transmission risk remains high should be prioritized for control efforts.

Emerging and Reemerging Virus Diseases of Vertebrates☆

In the last two decades, a large number of new viruses have been discovered, many of which are pathogenic in humans or other vertebrates. Among the more important causes of virus emergence have been changes in human behavior, population, and increases in travel to distant countries. In addition, the application of new molecular technologies has led to the recognition of many viruses that hitherto went undetected. Many of the new, emerging viruses have an RNA genome, and many are zoonoses. The spread of human immunodeficiency virus, causing acquired immune deficiency syndrome, and the use of immunosuppressive drugs following transplant surgery, have increased the numbers of people in the population that are highly susceptible to emerging virus infections. The threat of a new pandemic of influenza virus in the human population stresses the need for development of better methods for detection, surveillance, and control of emerging virus diseases.

Emerging and Reemerging Virus Diseases of Vertebrates

In the last two decades, a large number of new viruses have been discovered, many of which are pathogenic in humans or other vertebrates. Among the more important causes of virus emergence have been changes in human behavior, population, and increases in travel to distant countries. In addition, the application of new molecular technologies has led to the recognition of many viruses that hitherto went undetected. Many of the new, emerging viruses have an RNA genome, and many are zoonoses. The spread of human immunodeficiency virus, causing acquired immune deficiency syndrome, and the use of immunosuppressive drugs following transplant surgery, have increased the numbers of people in the population that are highly susceptible to emerging virus infections. The threat of a new pandemic of influenza virus in the human population stresses the need for development of better methods for detection, surveillance, and control of emerging virus diseases.

Cell mediated immunity to meet the avian influenza A (H5N1) challenge

Avian influenza A subtype H5N1 virus with its recombination potential with the human influenza viruses presents a threat of producing a pandemic. The consensus is that the occurrence of such a pandemic is only a matter of time. This is of great concern, since no effective vaccine is available or can be made before the occurrence of the event. We present arguments for the use of cell mediated immunity for the prevention of the infection as well as for the treatment of infected patients. Transfer factor (TF), an immunomodulator of low molecular weight capable of transferring antigen-specific cell mediated immune information to T-lymphocytes, has been used successfully over the past quarter of a century for treating viral, parasitic, and fungal infections, as well as immunodeficiencies, neoplasias, allergies and autoimmune diseases. Moreover, several observations suggest that it can be utilised for prevention, transferring immunity prior to infection. Because it is derived from lymphocytes of immune donors, it has the potential to answer the challenge of unknown or ill-defined pathogens. Indeed, it is possible to obtain an antigen-specific TF preparation to a new pathogen before its identification. Thus, a specific TF to a new influenza virus can be made swiftly and used for prevention as well as for the treatment of infected patients.