Cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis of pediatric PCV programs in Egypt

New vaccine introductions (NVIs) raise issues of value for money (VfM) for self-financing middle-income countries like Egypt. We evaluate a pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) NVI in Egypt from health payer and societal perspectives, using cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis (CUA, CBA). We evaluate vaccinating 100 successive birth cohorts with the 13-valent PCV ("PCV13") and the 10-valent PCV ("PCV10") relative to no vaccination and each other. We quantify health effects with a disease incidence projection model and a multiple-cohort static disease model. Our CBA uses a health-augmented lifecycle model to generate willingness-to-pay for health gains from which we calculate rates of return (RoR). We obtain parameters from the published literature. We perform deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our base-case CUA finds incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PCV13 and PCV10 relative to no program of $926 (95% confidence interval $512-$1,735) and $1,984 ($1,186-$3,805) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), respectively; and for PCV13 relative to PCV10 of $174 ($88-$331) per QALY. Our base-case CBA finds RoRs to PCV13 and PCV10 relative to no program of 488% (188-993%) and 164% (33-336%), respectively, and to PCV13 relative to PCV10 of 3109% (1410-6602%). Both CUA and CBA find PCV13 to be good VfM relative to PCV10.

The broader impacts of otitis media and sequelae for informing economic evaluations of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines

INTRODUCTION

Otitis media (OM) is a common childhood infection. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent OM episodes, thereby reducing short- and long-term clinical, economic, humanistic, and societal consequences. Most economic evaluations of PCVs focus on direct health gains and cost savings from prevented acute episodes but do not fully account for the broader societal impacts of OM prevention.

AREAS COVERED

This review explores the broader burden of OM on children, caregivers, and society to better inform future economic evaluations of PCVs.

EXPERT OPINION

OM causes a substantial burden to society through long-term sequelae, productivity losses, reduced quality of life for children and caregivers, and contribution to antimicrobial resistance from inappropriate antibiotic use. The effect of PCVs on acute OM has been recognized globally, yet the broader impact has not been consistently quantified, studied, or communicated. Economic evaluations of PCVs must evolve to include broader effects for patients, caregivers, and society from OM prevention. Future PCVs with broader coverage may further reduce OM incidence and antimicrobial resistance, but optimal uptake will depend on increasing the recognition and use of novel frameworks that include broader benefits. Communicating the full value of PCVs to decision makers may result in wider access and positive societal returns.

Public health impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a review of measurement challenges

INTRODUCTION

Modeling analyses have attempted to quantify the global impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumococcal disease (PD), however these pediatric models face several challenges in obtaining comprehensive impact measurements.

AREAS COVERED

We present several measurement challenges and discuss examples from recently published pediatric modeling evaluations. Challenges include estimating the number of infants fully or partially vaccinated with PCVs, inclusion of indirect effects of vaccination, accounting for various dosing schedules, capturing effect of PCVs on nonspecific, noninvasive PD, and inclusion of adult PCV use.

EXPERT OPINION

The true impact of PCVs has been consistently underestimated in published analyses due to multiple measurement challenges. Nearly 100 million adults are estimated to have received PCV13 over the last decade globally, potentially preventing up to 662 thousand cases of PD. Approximately 4.1 million cases of invasive PD alone may have been averted through indirect protection. Estimates of PCV impact on noninvasive PD remain a challenge due to altered epidemiology. Program switches, incomplete vaccination, and private market uptake among children also confound PD impact estimates. Taken together, the number of averted PD cases from PCV use in the last ten years may be up to three times higher than estimated in previous studies.

A systematic literature review of economic evaluations of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in east and southeast Asia (2006-2019)

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal infections can lead to serious invasive diseases such as meningitis, septicemia and pneumonia, as well as milder but more common illnesses such as sinusitis and otitis media. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the inclusion of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in infant National Immunization Program (NIP) programs worldwide. Decision-makers in Asian countries planning to introduce PCVs in their respective NIP will need a comprehensive evidence of effectiveness of PCVs at the population level and economic evidence including cost-effectiveness.

AREAS COVERED

A systematic literature review (from 1/1/2016 to 10/11/2019) of PCVs in East and Southeast Asia to understand (1) the contributing factors to cost-effectiveness results of PCVs and (2) whether gaps in evidence exist suggesting why the region may have yet to implement full NIPs.

EXPERT OPINION

In East and Southeast Asia, vaccination with PCVs was found to significantly reduce the mortality and morbidity of pneumococcal diseases and was cost-effective compared to no vaccination. Study assumptions, specifically vaccine local acquisition, the inclusion or exclusion of indirect effects (serotype replacement and herd effect), cross-protection, and protection against nontypeable haemophilus influenzae and serotype 3, were the main drivers of cost-effectiveness.

Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: A Systematic Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVES

To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions.

RESULTS

We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of infant vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in Germany

BACKGROUND

In 2009, the European Medicines Agency granted approval for two higher-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal infant (<2 years old) vaccination with a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in comparison with a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) for the prevention of pneumococcal disease in Germany.

METHODS

A population-based Markov model was developed to estimate the impact of PCV13 and PCV10 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), non-invasive pneumonia (PNE), and acute otitis media (AOM) over a time horizon of 50 years. The model included the effects of the historical vaccination scheme in infants as well as indirect herd effects and replacement disease. We used German epidemiological data to calculate episodes of IPD, PNE, and AOM, as well as direct and indirect effects of the vaccination. Parameter uncertainty was tested in univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, the ICER of PCV13 versus PCV10 infant vaccination was EUR 9826 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained or EUR 5490 per life-year (LY) gained from the societal perspective and EUR 3368 per QALY gained or EUR 1882 per LY gained from the perspective of the German statutory health insurance. The results were particularly sensitive to the magnitude of indirect effects of both vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal infant vaccination with PCV13 is likely to be a cost-effective intervention compared with PCV10 within the German health care system, if additional net indirect effects of PCV13 vaccination are significant.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of infant universal routine pneumococcal vaccination in Malaysia and Hong Kong

Pneumococcal disease causes large morbidity, mortality and health care utilization and medical and non-medical costs, which can all be reduced by effective infant universal routine immunization programs with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV). We evaluated the clinical and economic benefits of such programs with either 10- or 13-valent PCVs in Malaysia and Hong Kong by using an age-stratified Markov cohort model with many country-specific inputs. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was calculated to compare PCV10 or PCV13 against no vaccination and PCV13 against PCV10 over a 10-year birth cohort's vaccination. Both payer and societal perspectives were used. PCV13 had better public health and economic outcomes than a PCV10 program across all scenarios considered. For example, in the base case scenario in Malaysia, PCV13 would reduce more cases of IPD (+2,296), pneumonia (+705,281), and acute otitis media (+376,967) and save more lives (+6,122) than PCV10. Similarly, in Hong Kong, PCV13 would reduce more cases of IPD cases (+529), pneumonia (+172,185), and acute otitis media (+37,727) and save more lives (+2,688) than PCV10. During the same time horizon, PCV13 would gain over 74,000 and 21,600 additional QALYs than PCV10 in Malaysia and Hong Kong, respectively. PCV13 would be cost saving when compared against similar program with PCV10, under both payer and societal perspective in both countries. PCV13 remained a better choice over PCV10 in multiple sensitivity, scenario, and probabilistic analyses. PCV13s broader serotype coverage in its formulation and herd effect compared against PCV10 were important drivers of differences in outcomes.

Genetic profiles and antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae non-PCV10 serotype isolates recovered from meningitis cases in Salvador, Brazil

In 2010, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced into the Brazilian childhood vaccination programme. Concerns have been raised that non-vaccine serotypes could increase in prevalence and reduce the benefits of vaccination; therefore, we examined non-PCV10 isolates recovered from meningitis during pre- (January 2008-May 2010) and post-vaccine (June 2010-December 2012) periods. Surveillance for pneumococcal meningitis was established at the Reference Hospital of Infectious Diseases in Salvador, Brazil. Serotypes were determined by multiplex PCR and/or Quellung reaction. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was conducted by E-test and broth microdilution. Genotyping used PFGE and multi-locus sequence typing. A total of 148 cases of meningitis were identified from January 2008 to December 2012, 77 (52 %) of which were due to non-PCV10 isolates, with 50 (52.1 %) from pre-vaccine and 27 (52 %) from post-vaccine periods. In the post-vaccine period, the non-PCV10 serotypes 12F (n=6; 22.2 %), 10A (n=3; 11.1 %), 15B (n=2; 7.4 %) and 18B (n=2; 7.4 %) were the most prevalent. Forty-three isolates (55.8 %) were non-susceptible to one or more antibiotics. Non-susceptibility to penicillin was observed among serotypes 19A (three isolates), 9N (one isolate) and 12F (one isolate). PFGE and multi-locus sequence typing results demonstrated a wide genetic diversity among the isolates. During the early period following PCV10 introduction, no obvious emergence of a particular serotype was evident among non-PCV10 strains. This study underscores the importance of monitoring any changes among non-PCV10 cases after the introduction of PCV10.

Choosing between 7-, 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in childhood: a review of economic evaluations (2006-2014)

BACKGROUND

Seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7) have been used in children for more than a decade. Given the observed increase in disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes not covered by PCV7, an increasing number of countries are switching from 7-valent to 10- and 13-valent PCVs ("PCV10" and "PCV13"). Economic evaluations are important tools to inform decisions and price negotiations to make such a switch.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to provide a critical assessment of economic evaluations involving PCV10 or PCV13, published since 2006.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science (SCI and SSCI) and Pubmed to retrieve, select and review relevant studies, which were archived between 1st January 2006 and 31st January 2014. The review protocol involved standard extraction of assumptions, methods, results and sponsorships from the original studies.

RESULTS

Sixty-three economic evaluations on PCVs published since January 2006 were identified. About half of these evaluated PCV10 and/or PCV13, the subject of this review. At current prices, both PCV13 and PCV10 were likely judged preferable to PCV7. However, the combined uncertainty related to price differences, burden of disease, vaccine effectiveness, herd and serotype replacement effects determine the preference base for either PCV10 or PCV13. The pivotal assumptions and results of these analyses also depended on which manufacturer sponsored the study.

CONCLUSION

A more thorough exploration of uncertainty should be made in future analyses on this subject, as we lack understanding to adequately model herd and serotype replacement effects to reliably predict the population impact of PCVs. The introduction of further improved PCVs in an environment of evolving antibiotic resistance and under the continuing influence of previous PCVs implies that the complexity and data requirements for relevant analyses will further increase. Decision makers using these analyses should not just rely on an analysis from a single manufacturer.

Vaccines against human diarrheal pathogens: current status and perspectives

Worldwide, nearly 1.7 billion people per year contract diarrheal infectious diseases (DID) and almost 760 000 of infections are fatal. DID are a major problem in developing countries where poor sanitation prevails and food and water may become contaminated by fecal shedding. Diarrhea is caused by pathogens such as bacteria, protozoans and viruses. Important diarrheal pathogens are Vibrio cholerae, Shigella spp. and rotavirus, which can be prevented with vaccines for several years. The focus of this review is on currently available vaccines against these three pathogens, and on development of new vaccines. Currently, various types of vaccines based on traditional (killed, live attenuated, toxoid or conjugate vaccines) and reverse vaccinology (DNA/mRNA, vector, recombinant subunit, plant vaccines) are in development or already available. Development of new vaccines demands high levels of knowledge, experience, budget, and time, yet promising new vaccines often fail in preclinical and clinical studies. Efficacy of vaccination also depends on the route of delivery, and mucosal immunization in particular is of special interest for preventing DID. Furthermore, adjuvants, delivery systems and other vaccine components are essential for an adequate immune response. These aspects will be discussed in relation to the improvement of existing and development of new vaccines against DID.

Optimising assessments of the epidemiological impact in The Netherlands of paediatric immunisation with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine using dynamic transmission modelling

This work is the first attempt to quantify the overall effects of a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccination programme in the Dutch population taking into account all the direct and indirect effects of the vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease. Using available Dutch data, a dynamic transmission model for the spread of pneumococci and potential subsequent invasive pneumococcal disease has been adapted to the Dutch setting. Overall, invasive pneumococcal disease cases in the Netherlands are predicted to decrease from a pre-vaccination level of 2623 cases annually to 2475, 2289, 2185, 2179, and 2178 cases annually 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, and 40-years, respectively, post-vaccination. Therefore, vaccination with PCV13 in the Netherlands is predicted to lower invasive pneumococcal disease cases per year by up to 445 cases in the medium- to long-term. The results are quite robust for the sensitivity analyses performed on the parameters that regulate herd immunity and competition between vaccine and non-vaccine types.

Cost effectiveness of the new pneumococcal vaccines: a systematic review of European studies

INTRODUCTION

Diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) are a major global public health problem. Despite their importance, information on the burden of the different pneumococcal diseases is limited and estimates vary widely.

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS

We critically reviewed the full economic evaluations (FEEs) on the new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) conducted in the European Union (EU) to assess their potential contribution to public decision making. We selected the FEEs focussed on PCV-10 and PCV-13 and published in English from January 2007 until June 2013. We screened the selected articles to assess their main methodological features using a common checklist composed of epidemiological, clinical and economic items.

RESULTS

All the ten studies selected were based on modelling and the time horizon was always long term. Two studies focused on adults, the remaining eight on infants. Only one study based herd immunity on national data, eight used foreign data or modelling and the last did not consider it. National prices and tariffs were claimed to be sources for unit costs in all studies; however, half of them assumed price parity when one vaccine was not yet marketed, and the figures varied within the countries where more than one study was conducted. Conclusions supported the economic utility of pneumococcal vaccination in all studies, raising some concern only in (i) the independent study, which found that PCV-13 was borderline cost effective, and (ii) the study sponsored by both manufacturers, which estimated an incremental ratio slightly above the national threshold for both PCV-10 and PCV-13.

CONCLUSION

The European studies we analysed are mostly based on weak sources of data. Because of the limited information on vaccine effectiveness and lack of epidemiological and economic data, the need for extensive recourse to assumptions leads to great within- and between-study variability generated by authors' choices.

Economics of vaccines revisited

Performing a total health economic analysis of a vaccine newly introduced into the market today is a challenge when using the conventional cost-effectiveness analysis we normally apply on pharmaceutical products. There are many reasons for that, such as: the uncertainty in the total benefit (direct and indirect) to be measured in a population when using a cohort model; (1) appropriate rules about discounting the long-term impact of vaccines are absent jeopardizing therefore their value at the initial investment; (2) the presence of opposite contexts when introducing the vaccine in developed vs. the developing world with high benefits, low initial health care investment for the latter vs. marginal benefit and high cost for the former; with a corresponding paradox for the vaccine becoming very cost-effective in low income countries but rather medium in middle low to high middle income countries; (3) and the type of trial assessment for the newer vaccines is now often performed with immunogenicity reaction instead of clinical endpoints which still leaves questions on their real impact and their head-to-head comparison. (4.)