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Souza CDFD, Nascimento RPDS, Bezerra-Santos M, Armstrong ADC, Gomes OV, Nicácio JM, Júnior JVJS, Carmo RFD. Space-time dynamics of the dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2024: an insight for decision making. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:1056. [PMID: 39333905 PMCID: PMC11430439 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09813-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2024] [Accepted: 08/27/2024] [Indexed: 09/30/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024. METHODS This is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters. RESULTS 1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5-59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7-44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3-10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2-22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7-40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS We described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza
- College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil.
- Research CNPq N2, Postgraduate Program in Family Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
| | - Rafael Pedro de Souza Nascimento
- College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil
| | - Márcio Bezerra-Santos
- College of Medicine, Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil
| | - Anderson da Costa Armstrong
- College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil
| | - Orlando Vieira Gomes
- College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil
| | - Jandir Mendonça Nicácio
- College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil
| | - José Valter Joaquim Silva Júnior
- Virology Sector, Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Federal University of Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
- Virology Sector, Keizo Asami Institute, Federal University of Pernambuco, Pernambuco, Brazil
- NB3 Neuroimmunology Laboratory, Federal University of Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
- Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, Federal University of Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo
- College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil
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Bellissimo-Rodrigues F, Dal Fabbro AL. Dengue fever: working towards global control considering biological, social, and planetary determinants. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2023; 23:e506. [PMID: 37865115 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(23)00632-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/23/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Bellissimo-Rodrigues
- Social Medicine Department, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto 14048-900, Brazil.
| | - Amaury Lelis Dal Fabbro
- Social Medicine Department, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto 14048-900, Brazil
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