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Winck GR, Raimundo RLG, Fernandes-Ferreira H, Bueno MG, D’Andrea PS, Rocha FL, Cruz GLT, Vilar EM, Brandão M, Cordeiro JLP, Andreazzi CS. Socioecological vulnerability and the risk of zoonotic disease emergence in Brazil. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabo5774. [PMID: 35767624 PMCID: PMC9242594 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abo5774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
In developing countries, outbreaks of zoonotic diseases (ZDs) result from intertwined ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic processes that shape conditions for (i) increased contact between vulnerable human population and wildlife in areas undergoing environmental degradation and (ii) the rapid geographic spread of infections across socially vulnerable regions. In Brazil, recent increases in environmental and social vulnerabilities, amplified by economic and political crises, are potential triggers for outbreaks. We discuss Brazilian features that favor outbreaks and show a novel quantitative method for zoonotic risk assessment. Using data on nine ZDs from 2001 to 2019, we found that the most significant causal variables were vegetation cover and city remoteness. Furthermore, 8 of 27 states presented low-level risk of ZD outbreaks. Given the ZD-bushmeat connection, we identified central hunted mammals that should be surveilled to prevent spillover events. The current challenge is to coordinate intersectoral collaboration for effective One Health management in megadiverse countries with high social vulnerability and growing environmental degradation like Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gisele R. Winck
- Laboratory of Biology and Parasitology of Wild Reservoir Mammals (LABPMR), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Rafael L. G. Raimundo
- Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), João Pessoa, PB, Brazil
- Graduate Program in Ecology and Environmental Monitoring, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), Rio Tinto, PB, Brazil
| | - Hugo Fernandes-Ferreira
- Terrestrial Vertebrate Conservation Lab (Converte), State University of Ceará (UECE), Quixadá, CE, Brazil
| | - Marina G. Bueno
- Laboratory of Comparative and Environmental Virology (LVCA), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Paulo S. D’Andrea
- Laboratory of Biology and Parasitology of Wild Reservoir Mammals (LABPMR), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Fabiana L. Rocha
- Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), João Pessoa, PB, Brazil
- Center for Species Survival Brazil and Conservation Planning Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission (SSC), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Foz do Iguaçu, PR, Brazil
| | - Gabriella L. T. Cruz
- Laboratory of Biology and Parasitology of Wild Reservoir Mammals (LABPMR), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | | | - Martha Brandão
- Vice Presidency of Production and Innovation in Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - José Luís P. Cordeiro
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Eusébio, CE, Brazil
- Department of Biology and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), Aveiro University, Aveiro, Portugal
- International Platform for Science, Technology, and Innovation in Health (PICTIS), Fiocruz and Aveiro, Portugal
| | - Cecilia S. Andreazzi
- Laboratory of Biology and Parasitology of Wild Reservoir Mammals (LABPMR), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
- International Platform for Science, Technology, and Innovation in Health (PICTIS), Fiocruz and Aveiro, Portugal
- Centre for Functional Ecology (CFE), University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
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