Nomogram for predicting post-traumatic hydrocephalus after decompressive craniectomy for traumatic brain injury

A predictive model in patients with chronic hydrocephalus following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

Our aim was to develop a nomogram that integrates clinical and radiological data obtained from computed tomography (CT) scans, enabling the prediction of chronic hydrocephalus in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).

Method

A total of 318 patients diagnosed with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and admitted to the Department of Neurosurgery at the Affiliated People's Hospital of Jiangsu University between January 2020 and December 2022 were enrolled in our study. We collected clinical characteristics from the hospital's medical record system. To identify risk factors associated with chronic hydrocephalus, we conducted both univariate and LASSO regression models on these clinical characteristics and radiological features, accompanied with penalty parameter adjustments conducted through tenfold cross-validation. All features were then incorporated into multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on these findings, we developed a clinical-radiological nomogram. To evaluate its discrimination performance, we conducted Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Additionally, we employed calibration curves, and utilized Brier scores as an indicator of concordance. Additionally, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the clinical utility of our models by estimating net benefits at various threshold probabilities for both training and testing groups.

Results

The study included 181 patients, with a determined chronic hydrocephalus prevalence of 17.7%. Univariate logistic regression analysis identified 11 potential risk factors, while LASSO regression identified 7 significant risk factors associated with chronic hydrocephalus. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed three independent predictors for chronic hydrocephalus following aSAH: Periventricular white matter changes, External lumbar drainage, and Modified Fisher Grade. A nomogram incorporating these factors accurately predicted the risk of chronic hydrocephalus in both the training and testing cohorts. The AUC values were calculated as 0.810 and 0.811 for each cohort respectively, indicating good discriminative ability of the nomogram model. Calibration curves along with Hosmer-Lemeshow tests demonstrated excellent agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes in both cohorts. Furthermore, Brier scores (0.127 for the training and 0.09 for testing groups) further validated the predictive performance of our nomogram model. The DCA confirmed that this nomogram provides superior net benefit across various risk thresholds when predicting chronic hydrocephalus. The decision curve demonstrated that when an individual's threshold probability ranged from 5 to 62%, this model is more effective in predicting the occurrence of chronic hydrocephalus after aSAH.

Conclusion

A clinical-radiological nomogram was developed to combine clinical characteristics and radiological features from CT scans, aiming to enhance the accuracy of predicting chronic hydrocephalus in patients with aSAH. This innovative nomogram shows promising potential in assisting clinicians to create personalized and optimal treatment plans by providing precise predictions of chronic hydrocephalus among aSAH patients.

Consensus-based recommendations for diagnosis and surgical management of cranioplasty and post-traumatic hydrocephalus from a European panel

Introduction

Planning cranioplasty (CPL) in patients with suspected or proven post-traumatic hydrocephalus (PTH) poses a significant management challenge due to a lack of clear guidance.

Research question

This project aims to create a European document to improve adherence and adapt to local protocols based on available resources and national health systems.

Methods

After a thorough non-systematic review, a steering committee (SC) formed a European expert panel (EP) for a two-round questionnaire using the Delphi method. The questionnaire employed a 9-point Likert scale to assess the appropriateness of statements inherent to two sections: "Diagnostic criteria for PTH" and "Surgical strategies for PTH and cranial reconstruction."

Results

The panel reached a consensus on 29 statements. In the "Diagnostic criteria for PTH" section, five statements were deemed "appropriate" (consensus 74.2-90.3 %), two were labeled "inappropriate," and seven were marked as "uncertain."In the "Surgical strategies for PTH and cranial reconstruction" section, four statements were considered "appropriate" (consensus 74.2-90.4 %), six were "inappropriate," and five were "uncertain."

Discussion and conclusion

Planning a cranioplasty alongside hydrocephalus remains a significant challenge in neurosurgery. Our consensus conference suggests that, in patients with cranial decompression and suspected hydrocephalus, the most suitable diagnostic approach involves a combination of evolving clinical conditions and neuroradiological imaging. The recommended management sequence prioritizes cranial reconstruction, with the option of a ventriculoperitoneal shunt when needed, preferably with a programmable valve. We strongly recommend to adopt local protocols based on expert consensus, such as this, to guide patient care.

Posttraumatic hydrocephalus: Recent advances and new therapeutic strategies

Background

Hydrocephalus or ventriculomegaly is a condition brought on by an overabundance of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in the ventricular system. The major contributor to posttraumatic hydrocephalus (PTH) is traumatic brain injuries (TBIs), especially in individuals with occupations set in industrial settings. A variety of criteria have been employed for the diagnosis of PTH, including the combination of neurological symptoms like nerve deficits and headache, as well as an initial improvement followed by a worsened relapse of altered consciousness and neurological deterioration, which is detected by computed tomography-brain imaging that reveals gradual ventriculomegaly.

Aim

In this article, we discuss and summarize briefly the current understandings and advancements in the management of PTH.

Methods

The available literature for this review was searched on various bibliographic databases using an individually verified, prespecified approach. The level of evidence of the included studies was considered as per the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine recommendations.

Results

The commonly practiced current treatment modality involves shunting CSF but is often associated with complications and recurrence. The lack of a definitive management strategy for PTH warrants the utilization of novel and innovative modalities such as stem cell transplantations and antioxidative stress therapies.

Conclusion

One of the worst complications of a TBI is PTH, which has a high morbidity and mortality rate. Even though there hasn't been a successful method in stopping PTH from happening, hemorrhage-derived blood, and its metabolic by-products, like iron, hemoglobin, free radicals, thrombin, and red blood cells, may be potential targets for PTH hindrance and management. Also, using stem cell transplantations in animal models and antioxidative stress therapies in future studies can lower PTH occurrence and improve its outcome. Moreover, the integration of clinical trials and theoretical knowledge should be encouraged in future research projects to establish effective and updated management guidelines for PTH.