Prognostic factors for survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases: experience of a single brazilian cancer center

Interpretable Machine Learning Models to Predict the Resistance of Breast Cancer Patients to Doxorubicin from Their microRNA Profiles

Doxorubicin is a common treatment for breast cancer. However, not all patients respond to this drug, which sometimes causes life-threatening side effects. Accurately anticipating doxorubicin-resistant patients would therefore permit to spare them this risk while considering alternative treatments without delay. Stratifying patients based on molecular markers in their pretreatment tumors is a promising approach to advance toward this ambitious goal, but single-gene gene markers such as HER2 expression have not shown to be sufficiently predictive. The recent availability of matched doxorubicin-response and diverse molecular profiles across breast cancer patients permits now analysis at a much larger scale. 16 machine learning algorithms and 8 molecular profiles are systematically evaluated on the same cohort of patients. Only 2 of the 128 resulting models are substantially predictive, showing that they can be easily missed by a standard-scale analysis. The best model is classification and regression tree (CART) nonlinearly combining 4 selected miRNA isoforms to predict doxorubicin response (median Matthew correlation coefficient (MCC) and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.56 and 0.80, respectively). By contrast, HER2 expression is significantly less predictive (median MCC and AUC of 0.14 and 0.57, respectively). As the predictive accuracy of this CART model increases with larger training sets, its update with future data should result in even better accuracy.

PRIMARY TUMOR LYMPHOVASCULAR INVASION NEGATIVELY AFFECTS SURVIVAL AFTER COLORECTAL LIVER METASTASIS RESECTION?

BACKGROUND

About 50% of the patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma will present with liver metastasis and 20% are synchronic. Liver resection is associated with improvement in survival in comparison to chemotherapy alone.

AIM

To analyze the overall survival in patients submitted to liver resection of colorectal cancer metastasis and prognostic factors related to the primary and secondary tumors.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database regarding demographic, primary tumor and liver metastasis characteristics.

RESULTS

There were 84 liver resections due to colorectal cancer metastasis in the period. The 5-year disease-free and overall survivals were 27.5% and 48.8% respectively. The statistically significant factors for survival were tumor grade (p=0.050), lymphovascular invasion (p=0.021), synchronous metastasis (p=0.020), as well as number (p=0.004), bilobar distribution (p=0.019) and diameter of the liver metastasis over 50 mm (p=0.027). Remained as independent negative predictive factors: lymphovascular invasion (HR=2.7; CI 95% 1.106-6.768; p=0.029), synchronous metastasis (HR=2.8; CI 95% 1.069-7.365; p=0.036) and four or more liver metastasis (HR=1.7; CI 95% 1.046-2.967; p=0.033).

CONCLUSION

The resection of liver metastasis of colorectal adenocarcinoma leads to good survival rates. Lymphovascular invasion was the single prognostic factor related to the primary tumor. Synchronous disease and four or more metastasis were the most significant factors related to the secondary tumor.

Predictors of long-term survival in patients with hepatic resection of colorectal metastases: Analysis of a Brazilian Cancer Center Cohort

BACKGROUND

Hepatic metastases are a major cause of death in patients with colorectal cancer. A comprehensive assessment of the prognostic factors associated with long-term survival could improve patient selection for surgical approaches and decrease morbidity and futile locoregional treatments.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases at a single center from 2000 to 2012.

RESULTS

To identify factors associated with 5- and 10-year overall (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS), we analyzed 280 patients and 150 patients in the 5- and 10-year cohorts, respectively. Only seven relapses occurred after 5 years of follow-up, and no relapses occurred after 10 years. Multivariable analysis indicated that bilobar disease and extra-hepatic disease before hepatectomy were independent 5- and 10-year predictors of OS, and major postoperative complications predicted OS in the 5-year survival cohort only. Our analysis indicated that prognostic factors associated with DFS included some confounders and was therefore inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results suggest that the predictors of 5- and 10-year OS rates of colorectal cancer patients with hepatic metastases are similar, differing only by postoperative complications that influenced exclusively 5-year survival. Since no relapse occurred 10 years after hepatic resection, oncological remission is likely.

Synchronous and metachronous liver metastases in patients with colorectal cancer-towards a clinically relevant definition

Background

Approximately 25% of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) will have liver metastases classified as synchronous or metachronous. There is no consensus on the defining time point for synchronous/metachronous, and the prognostic implications thereof remain unclear. The aim of the study was to assess the prognostic value of differential detection at various defining time points in a population-based patient cohort and conduct a literature review of the topic.

Methods

All patients diagnosed with CRC in the counties of Stockholm and Gotland, Sweden, during 2008 were included in the study and followed for 5 years or until death to identify patients diagnosed with liver metastases. Patients with liver metastases were followed from time of diagnosis of liver metastases for at least 5 years or until death. Different time points defining synchronous/metachronous detection, as reported in the literature and identified in a literature search of databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library), were applied to the cohort, and overall survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with log-rank test. The influence of synchronously or metachronously detected liver metastases on disease-free and overall survival as reported in articles forthcoming from the literature search was also assessed.

Results

Liver metastases were diagnosed in 272/1026 patients with CRC (26.5%). No statistically significant difference in overall survival for synchronous vs. metachronous detection at any of the defining time points (CRC diagnosis/surgery and 3, 6 and 12 months post-diagnosis/surgery) was demonstrated for operated or non-operated patients. In the literature search, 41 publications met the inclusion criteria. No clear pattern emerged regarding the prognostic significance of synchronous vs. metachronous detection.

Conclusion

Synchronous vs. metachronous detection of CRC liver metastases lacks prognostic value. Using primary tumour diagnosis/operation as standardized cut-off point to define synchronous/metachronous detection is semantically correct. In synchronous detection, it defines a clinically relevant group of patients where individualized multimodality treatment protocols will apply.

Impact of perioperative blood transfusion on clinical outcomes in patients with colorectal liver metastasis after hepatectomy: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Perioperative blood transfusion may be associated with negative clinical outcomes in oncological surgery. A meta-analysis of published studies was conducted to evaluate the impact of blood transfusion on short- and long-term outcomes following liver resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CLM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic search was performed to identify relevant articles. Data were pooled for meta-analysis using Review Manager version 5.3.

RESULTS

Twenty-five observational studies containing 10621 patients were subjected to the analysis. Compared with non-transfused patients, transfused patients experienced higher overall morbidity (odds ratio [OR], 1.98; 95% confidence intervals [CI] =1.49-2.33), more major complications (OR, 2.12; 95% CI =1.26-3.58), higher mortality (OR, 4.13; 95% CI =1.96-8.72), and longer length of hospital stay (weighted mean difference, 4.43; 95% CI =1.15-7.69). Transfusion was associated with reduced overall survival (risk ratio [RR], 1.24, 95% CI =1.11-1.38) and disease-free survival (RR, 1.38, 95% CI=1.23-1.56).

CONCLUSION

Perioperative blood transfusion has a detrimental impact on the clinical outcomes of patients undergoing CLM resection.

I BRAZILIAN CONSENSUS ON MULTIMODAL TREATMENT OF COLORECTAL LIVER METASTASES. MODULE 2: APPROACH TO RESECTABLE METASTASES

Background:

Liver metastases of colorectal cancer are frequent and potentially fatal event in the evolution of patients.

Aim:

In the second module of this consensus, management of resectable liver metastases was discussed.

Method:

Concept of synchronous and metachronous metastases was determined, and both scenarius were discussed separately according its prognostic and therapeutic peculiarities.

Results:

Special attention was given to the missing metastases due to systemic preoperative treatment response, with emphasis in strategies to avoid its reccurrence and how to manage disappeared lesions.

Conclusion:

Were presented validated ressectional strategies, to be taken into account in clinical practice.

IMMEDIATE COMPLICATIONS AFTER 88 HEPATECTOMIES - BRAZILIAN CONSECUTIVE SERIES

Background:

Hepatectomies have been increasingly recommended and performed in Brazil; they present great differences related to immediate complications.

Aim:

Assessing the immediate postoperative complications in a series of 88 open liver resections.

Method:

Prospective database of patients subjected to consecutive hepatectomies over nine years. The post-hepatectomy complications were categorized according to the Clavien-Dindo classification; complications presenting grade equal to or greater than 3 were considered major complications. Hepatic resections involving three or more resected liver segments were considered major hepatectomies.

Results:

Eighty-four patients were subjected to 88 hepatectomies, mostly were minor liver resections (50 cases, 56.8%). Most patients had malignant diseases (63 cases; 71.6%). The mean hospitalization time was 10.9 days (4-43). Overall morbidity and mortality rates were 37.5% and 6.8%, respectively. The two most common immediate general complications were intra-peritoneal collections (12.5%) and pleural effusion (12.5%). Bleeding, biliary fistula and liver failure were identified in 6.8%, 4.5% and 1.1% of the cases, respectively, among the hepatectomy-specific complications.

Conclusion:

The patients operated in the second half of the series showed better results, which were apparently influenced by the increased surgical expertise, by the modification of the hepatic parenchyma section method and by the increased organ preservation.

Comparison of Total Tumor Volume, Size and Number of Colorectal Liver Metastases in Prediction of Survival in Patients after Liver Resection

Liver is the most common location of the colorectal cancer metastases occurrence. Liver resection is the only curative method of treatment. Unfortunately it is feasible only in 25% of patients with colorectal liver metastases, often because of the extensiveness of the disease. The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive value of total tumor volume, size and number of colorectal liver metastases in patients treated with right hemihepatectomy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed in a group of 135 patients with colorectal liver metastases, who were treated with right hemihepatectomy. Total tumor volume was estimated based on the formula (4/3)πr³. Moreover, the study included an analysis of data on the number and size of tumors, radicality of the resection, time between primary tumor resection and liver resection, pre-operative blood serum concentration of carcinoembryonal antigen (CEA) and carcinoma antigen Ca 19-9. The predictive value of the factors was evaluated by applying a Cox proportional hazards model and the area under the ROC curve.

RESULTS

The univariate analysis has shown the predictive value of size of the largest tumor (p=0.033; HR=1.065 per each cm) on the overall survival, however no predictive value of number of tumors (p=0.997; HR=1.000) and total tumor volume (p=0.212; HR=1.002) was observed. The multivariate analysis did not confirm the predictive value of the size of the largest tumor (p=0.141; HR=1.056). In the analysis of ROC curves, AUROC for the total tumor volume, the size of the largest tumor and the number of tumors were 0.629, 0.608, 0.520, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Total tumor volume, size and number of liver metastases are not independent risk factors for the worse overall survival of patients with colorectal liver metastases treated with liver resection, therefore increased values of these factors should not be a contraindication for surgical treatment.

The impact of BMI on early colorectal neoplastic lesions and the role of endoscopic diagnosis:. An Italian observational study

INTRODUCTION

CRC often arises from polyps: an early detection and resection are effective in decreasing both incidence and mortality rate. Relation between risk factors, adenomas and CRC have been showed, but there is little evidence for overweight association with preneoplastic lesions. This study analyzed the correlation between body mass index (BMI) and primitive site of polyps.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study, in a period between January 2010 and October 2014. Subjects aged 50 years and older who underwent their first-time screening colonoscopy were included. Reports regarding characteristic of the polyps were collected.

RESULTS

142 patients were enrolled and they were divided into two groups: group I - patients with left sided colonic polyps, and group II - patients who right sided colonic polyps. The ANOVA test-one way, documents a difference between the BMI and the colon localization of polyps.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with overweight had a higher risk to develop lesions in the left colon compared to patients with normal weight. Despite the fact that Italian epidemiological studies have found a prevalence of polyps of 44-53% in rectal-sigmoid segment, 32-36% in transverse segment and of 14-20% in right segment, we showed an incidence of 26.05% for right sided polyps, which maybe related with the eating habits of the territory.

Surgical outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with synchronous colorectal liver metastases

CONTEXT

Colorectal cancer is the second most prevalent cancer worldwide, and the liver is the most common site of metastases. Surgical resection of colorectal liver metastases provides the sole possibility of cure and the best odds of long-term survival. Objectives To describe surgical outcomes and identify features associated with disease prognosis in patients submitted to synchronous colorectal cancer liver metastasis resection.

METHODS

Retrospective study of 59 patients who underwent surgery for synchronous colorectal cancer liver metastasis. Actuarial survival and disease-free survival were assessed, depending on the prognostic variable of interest.

RESULTS

Postoperative mortality and morbidity rates were 3.38% and 30.50% respectively. Five-year disease-free survival was estimated at 23.96%, and 5-year overall survival, at 38.45%. Carcinoembryonic antigen levels ≥ 50 ng/mL and presence of three or more liver metastasis were limiting factors for disease-free survival, but did not affect late survival. No patient with liver metastases and extrahepatic disease had disease-free interval longer than 20 months, but this had no significance or impact on long-term survival. None of the prognostic factors assessed had an impact on late survival, although no patients with more than three liver metastases survived beyond 40 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Carcinoembryonic antigen levels and number of metastases are prognostic factors that limit disease-free survival, they had no impact on 5-year survival and, therefore, should not determine exclusion from surgical treatment. Resection is the best treatment option for synchronous colorectal liver metastases, and even for patients with multiple metastases, large tumors and extrahepatic disease, it can provide long-term survival rates over 38%.