Modern epidemiology and its discontents

Epidemiology and the Covid-19 pandemic: opportunities to review trajectories and plan for the future

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused substantial changes in various spheres of academic life. Epidemiology can use the experiences accumulated in this period as an opportunity to plan for its future. Facing a pandemic requires the production of explanatory theories about the pandemic process and its unequal manifestation in the population. In this sense, Epidemiology needs to strengthen its scientific foundations and recognize the values and limits of its approaches. Thus, it is essential to strengthen the links with other disciplines. A new teaching model can be produced from pandemic experiences, including transversal contents, such as preparation for responses to natural and technological disasters, like epidemics and pandemics, and scientific communication. The teaching of Epidemiology needs to be contextualized with the bases of Collective Health, reinforcing its commitment to the translation and application of knowledge in order to improve people’s health and lives.

Epidemiologia e pandemia de Covid-19: oportunidades para rever trajetórias e planejar o futuro

A pandemia de Covid-19 provocou modificações substanciais em diversas esferas da vida acadêmica. A Epidemiologia pode utilizar as experiências acumuladas nesse período como oportunidade para planejar seu futuro. O enfrentamento de uma pandemia exige a produção de teorias explicativas sobre o processo pandêmico e sua expressão desigual na população. Nesse sentido, a Epidemiologia necessita fortalecer seus fundamentos científicos e reconhecer os valores e limites de suas abordagens. Nesse caminho, é essencial o fortalecimento dos elos com outras disciplinas. Um novo modelo de ensino pode ser produzido por meio das experiências ao longo da pandemia, integrando conteúdos transversais, como a preparação para a resposta a desastres naturais e de origem tecnológica, incluindo epidemias e pandemias e a comunicação científica. O ensino da Epidemiologia precisa ser contextualizado com as bases da Saúde Coletiva, reforçando seu compromisso com a tradução e a aplicação do conhecimento para a melhoria da saúde e da vida das pessoas.

Long-term exposure to low-level air pollution, genetic susceptibility and risk of dementia

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess the association between low-level air pollution and the risk of dementia, and examine the modification effect by genetic susceptibility on the relationship.

METHODS

A total of 164 447 participants who were free of dementia at baseline and aged ≥60 years were included. Annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), between 2.5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance and nitrogen dioxides (NO2) were evaluated using the Land Use Regression models. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between air pollutants and incident dementia.

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of dementia for a 5-μg/m3 increase in NO2 was 1.09 (95% CI, 1.05-1.14); the adjusted HR of dementia for a 1-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.10 (1.04-1.17). Such significant associations were present even within concentration ranges well below the present World Health Organization, US and European annual mean limit values. In addition, higher PM2.5 absorbance, a marker closely related to motorized traffic, was associated with higher risk of dementia. We found the risk of dementia associated with a combination of air pollutants (NO2 or PM2.5) and high genetic susceptibility (APOE-ε4 alleles or overall genetic susceptibility) was greater than the addition of the risk associated with each individual factor, indicating significant interactions on an additive scale (all P-interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 or NO2, even at relatively low levels, is associated with a higher risk of dementia. Air pollution may additively interact with the genetic susceptibility on dementia risk.

The Challenge of Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes to Public Health: A Study Based on Qualitative Systemic Approach

The most common modeling approaches to understanding incidence, prevalence and control of chronic diseases in populations, such as statistical regression models, are limited when it comes to dealing with the complexity of those problems. Those complex adaptive systems have characteristics such as emerging properties, self-organization and feedbacks, which structure the system stability and resistance to changes. Recently, system science approaches have been proposed to deal with the range, complexity, and multifactor nature of those public health problems. In this paper we applied a multilevel systemic approach to create an integrated, coherent, and increasingly precise conceptual framework, capable of aggregating different partial or specialized studies, based on the challenges of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health - ELSA-Brasil. The failure to control blood pressure found in several of the study's subjects was discussed, based on the proposed model, analyzing different loops, time lags, and feedback that influence this outcome in a population with high educational level, with reasonably good health services access. We were able to identify the internal circularities and cycles that generate the system's resistance to change. We believe that this study can contribute to propose some new possibilities of the research agenda and to the discussion of integrated actions in the field of public health.