Medición de las desigualdades en la edad de muerte: cálculo del índice de gini a partir de las tablas de mortalidad

Convergence and divergence in mortality: A global study from 1990 to 2030

An empirical question that has motivated demographers is whether there is convergence or divergence in mortality/longevity around the world. The epidemiological transition is the starting point for studying a global process of mortality convergence. This manuscript aims to provide an update on the concept of mortality convergence/divergence. We perform a comprehensive examination of nine different mortality indicators from a global perspective using clustering methods in the period 1990-2030. In addition, we include analyses of projections to provide insights into prospective trajectories of convergence clubs, a dimension unexplored in previous work. The results indicate that mortality convergence clubs of 194 countries by sex resemble the configuration of continents. These five clubs show a common steady upward trend in longevity indicators, accompanied by a progressive reduction in disparities between sexes and between groups of countries. Furthermore, this paper shows insights into the historical evolution of the convergence clubs in the period 1990-2020 and expands their scope to include projections of their expected future evolution in 2030.

Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex

BACKGROUND

An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables.

OBJECTIVE

Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available.

DATA AND METHOD

We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures.

RESULTS

Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model's fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children's ages and later ages for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

The LC and LC2 models present better goodness of fit, identifying the principal characteristics of mortality for Colombia.Mortality forecasting from abridged life tables by sex has clear added value for studying differences between developing countries and convergence/divergence of demographic changes.

Measuring inequalities in the distribution of dental caries

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate different measurements of prevalence and inequality in the distribution of dental caries as to their partial collinearity, and ability in expressing associations with the supply of fluoridated tap water, indices of socioeconomic status and provision of dental services.

METHODS

The DMFT, the Significant Caries (SiC) Index, the proportions of children with high- (DMFT > or = 4) and rampant- (DMFT > or = 7) caries experience, caries-free children (DMFT = 0), the Gini coefficient and the Dental Health Inequality Index (DHII) were the dental outcomes appraised in a sample comprising 18 718 oral examination records for 11- and 12-year-old schoolchildren in 131 towns of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Spatial data analysis assessed the association between aggregate figures of dental indices and several covariates.

RESULTS

The DMFT, the SiC Index and the proportions of children with high- and rampant-caries experience presented strong linear associations (Pearson r near or higher than 0.95), and an analogous profile of correlation with indicators of socioeconomic status, dental services and access to fluoride tap water. The same was observed for the DHII, the Gini coefficient and the proportion of caries-free children. These observations involve the perception of variables in each set as interchangeable tools for ecological studies assessing factors influencing, respectively, prevalence levels and inequality in the distribution of dental disease.

CONCLUSION

An improved characterization of the skewed distribution of caries experience demands the concurrent estimation of figures of prevalence and inequality in dental outcomes. This strategy may contribute to the design of socially appropriate programmes of oral health promotion.